2016 playoffs: Alfred bracket

Saxons Alfred Saxons
Seed:Likely No. 1, Alfred bracket
Last Top 25 ranking: No. 14, Week 11 2016
Location: Alfred, NY
Enrollment (FT undergrads): 1868
Stadium: Merrill Field (5000)
Playing surface: Turf
Conference: E8
Preseason ranking from Kickoff: 29
Head coach: Bob Rankl
Career record: 23-8 (.742)
Base offense: Multiple pro spread
Base defense: 4-3
Record in NCAA playoffs: 2-3 (1981, 2009-10)
NCAA D-III championships: None

D3football.com team page: Schedule and results, more news

Points for Points against
376 191
How they got here: Pool A, E8 champ
You'll know they're playing well if: Their scoring drives take five or more minutes of game time (and you can't get that Saxon fight song out of your head).
You'll know they're playing poorly if: They're giving up big chunks of yardage to their opponent, especially via penalties.
This season's turning point: When Julio Fuentes walked off Merrill Field just prior to the season opener. That feat elevated the work ethic, commitment and level of play of every member of the team.
Strength of schedule (rank): .582 (7)
Rushing/passing yards per game: 245.5/190.6
Rushing/passing yards allowed: 90.8/194.7
Yards per play/allowed per play: 6.7/4.6
How far can they go? Easiest pod in the field. After that it could escalate quickly.
Blue Jays Johns Hopkins Blue Jays
Seed:Likely No. 2, Alfred bracket
Last Top 25 ranking: No. 18, Week 11 2015
Location: Baltimore, Md.
Enrollment (FT undergrads): 6006
Stadium: Homewood Field (8500)
Playing surface: Turf
Conference: CC
Preseason ranking from Kickoff: 15
Head coach: Jim Margraff (Johns Hopkins '82)
Career record: 199-84-3 (.701)
Base offense: Spread
Base defense: 4-2-5
Record in NCAA playoffs: 5-7 (2005, 2009, 2011-15)
NCAA D-III championships: None

D3football.com team page: Schedule and results, more news

Points for Points against
434 185
How they got here: Pool A, CC champ
You'll know they're playing well if: They're getting pressure on the opposing quarterback, enough to force him to get rid of the ball early, while controlling the clock with the ground game.
You'll know they're playing poorly if: They can't move the chains on the ground and Jonathan Germano becomes a disproportionate part of the offense.
This season's turning point: Putting up three scores in the final 15 minutes of the game to rally past Muhlenberg 30-24.
Strength of schedule (rank): .506 (108)
Rushing/passing yards per game: 187.8/333.3
Rushing/passing yards allowed: 169.2/189.6
Yards per play/allowed per play: 6.6/4.9
How far can they go? Depends on who the second-round opponent is.
Statesmen Hobart Statesmen
Seed:Likely No. 3, Alfred bracket
Last Top 25 ranking: No. 19, Week 11 2016
Location: Geneva, NY
Enrollment (FT undergrads): 2307
Stadium: Boswell Field (4500)
Playing surface: Turf
Conference: LL
Preseason ranking from Kickoff: 30
Head coach: Michael Cragg (Slippery Rock '83)
Career record: 156-59 (.726)
Base offense: Spread
Base defense: 4-4
Record in NCAA playoffs: 9-11 (2000, 2002, 2004-08, 2011-14)
NCAA D-III championships: None

D3football.com team page: Schedule and results, more news

Points for Points against
325 220
How they got here: Pool A, LL champ
You'll know they're playing well if: The offensive line is giving Shane Sweeney time to find Brandon Shed open deep.
You'll know they're playing poorly if: The offense tries running the ball with little success on first down, forcing the team into third-and-long situations. Such three-and-outs have left the defense on the field for longer stretches than necessary at times this season.
This season's turning point: Jack Pfohl scoring a touchdown with three seconds left to beat WPI and put Hobart in position to win the Liberty League title.
Strength of schedule (rank): .566 (18)
Rushing/passing yards per game: 89.0/317.0
Rushing/passing yards allowed: 158.3/178.8
Yards per play/allowed per play: 6.2/4.8
How far can they go? Normally we'd be sure they'd get out of the first round, but ...
Purple Raiders Mount Union Purple Raiders
Seed:Likely No. 4, Alfred bracket
Last Top 25 ranking: No. 7, Week 11 2016
Location: Alliance, Ohio
Enrollment (FT undergrads): 2119
Stadium: Mount Union Stadium (5450)
Playing surface: Turf
Conference: OAC
Preseason ranking from Kickoff: 1
Head coach: Vince Kehres (Mount Union '98)
Career record: 52-3 (.945)
Base offense: Spread
Base defense: 4-2-5
Record in NCAA playoffs: 91-15 (1985-86, 1990, 1992-2015)
NCAA D-III championships: 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015

D3football.com team page: Schedule and results, more news

Points for Points against
492 97
How they got here: Pool C
You'll know they're playing well if: Senior running back Bradley Mitchell is ripping off gains of six or seven yards per carry. The Purple Raiders' top four ballcarriers average 6.2 yards per carry or more, but it's the shifty Mitchell (6.8 per carry) who defenses geared up to stop in the second half of the season.
You'll know they're playing poorly if: Sacks or turnovers become an issue. Mount Union only allowed 16 sacks and had 17 giveaways in 10 games, but seven and four of them came in the lone loss, to John Carroll.
This season's turning point: When freshman Dom Davis took control of the quarterback job with a 344-yard, four-touchdown day on Oct. 15 against Capital. After attempting just nine passes behind Luke Poorman and D'Angelo Fulford over the first five games, Davis in five starts has averaged 265 yards and three touchdown passes per game.
Strength of schedule (rank): .490 (142)
Rushing/passing yards per game: 274.4/241.5
Rushing/passing yards allowed: 69.5/185.4
Yards per play/allowed per play: 7.1/3.9
How far can they go? You're fooling yourself if you think this team can't get back to Salem.
Golden Bears Western New England Golden Bears
Seed:Likely No. 5, Alfred bracket
Last Top 25 ranking: Never ranked
Location: Springfield, Mass.
Enrollment (FT undergrads): 2576
Stadium: Golden Bear Stadium (1500)
Playing surface: Turf
Conference: NEFC
Preseason ranking from Kickoff: 93
Head coach: Keith Emery (Dickinson '94)
Career record: 77-45 (.631)
Base offense: Spread option
Base defense: 3-3-5
Record in NCAA playoffs: 0-2 (2011, 2015)
NCAA D-III championships: None

D3football.com team page: Schedule and results, more news

Points for Points against
410 171
How they got here: Pool A, NEFC champ
You'll know they're playing well if: Quarterback Anthony Service is able to locate his reads, tailback Nick Connell is bursting through lanes to the end zone, and their defense is keeping their opponent's rushing attack at bay.
You'll know they're playing poorly if: They can't keep Service upright. While being sacked just twice against Endicott, Salve Regina, and Coast Guard Academy, he still managed to put up decent numbers. In addition, the Golden Bears cannot commit multiple penalties. In their close season finale against Coast Guard, the Golden Bears were flagged 12 times for a season-high 131 yards.
This season's turning point: An early-season 32-16 road victory prior to their conference schedule at Union, during which the Golden Bears trailed, 9-6, at the break.
Strength of schedule (rank): .473 (183)
Rushing/passing yards per game: 251.7/208.8
Rushing/passing yards allowed: 110.8/155.1
Yards per play/allowed per play: 5.9/4.1
How far can they go? To the second round, and who knows, if something catches fire ...
Yellow Jackets Randolph-Macon Yellow Jackets
Seed:Likely No. 6, Alfred bracket
Last Top 25 ranking: Never ranked
Location: Ashland, Va.
Enrollment (FT undergrads): 1278
Stadium: Day Field (4000)
Playing surface: Turf
Conference: ODAC
Preseason ranking from Kickoff: 136
Head coach: Pedro Arruza (Wheaton '95)
Career record: 74-57 (.565)
Base offense: Multiple
Base defense: 4-2-5
Record in NCAA playoffs: 0-2 (1984, 2008)
NCAA D-III championships: None

D3football.com team page: Schedule and results, more news

Points for Points against
312 115
How they got here: Pool A, ODAC champ
You'll know they're playing well if: They're running more far often than they pass, controlling the clock and playing great defense. The Yellow Jackets ran on about five out of every seven plays, with half of them going to Tre Frederick, who averaged 26 runs for 149 yards per game. R-MC is rarely penalized (3.4 per game), gets off the field on third downs and makes great defensive adjustments; it only allowed 38 second-half points all season, just six in the third quarter.
You'll know they're playing poorly if: They can't match their opponent's brawn in the trenches or speed on the flanks. The Yellow Jackets are creative offensively even though they're a running team in a spread era, but they aren't built to rally from a big deficit. They aren't built as a quick-strike offense, either. So if their methodical approach isn't working, it could be a long day.
This season's turning point: After bouncing back from their only loss, 27-20 against Emory & Henry, by allowing only 10 points over two games, the Yellow Jackets trailed Guilford 10-0 in the first half in Week 10. R-MC relieved quarterback Joseph Vairo with Burke Estes, and went on to beat the Quakers 31-10, and Hampden-Sydney 48-23 to secure a playoff spot.
Strength of schedule (rank): .476 (179)
Rushing/passing yards per game: 223.6/178.6
Rushing/passing yards allowed: 70.6/211.0
Yards per play/allowed per play: 5.3/4.3
How far can they go? They should remember well how to get to Johns Hopkins. But instead of starting the season, it will end it.
Eagles Husson Eagles
Seed:Likely No. 7, Alfred bracket
Last Top 25 ranking: Never ranked
Location: Bangor, Maine
Enrollment (FT undergrads): 1868
Stadium: Winkin Complex (3000)
Playing surface: Turf
Conference: ECFC
Preseason ranking from Kickoff: 155
Head coach: Gabby Price
Career record: 53-40 (.570)
Base offense: Spread
Base defense: 4-2-5
Record in NCAA playoffs: 0-1 (2014)
NCAA D-III championships: None

D3football.com team page: Schedule and results, more news

Points for Points against
400 154
How they got here: Pool A, ECFC champ
You'll know they're playing well if: Halfback John Smith is zigzagging his way to the end zone. Smith, perhaps the best tailback in New England, rushed for 17 touchdowns this season and 1,715 yards (171.5 yards per game). His numerous rushing attempts not only put points on the board, but also opened up the passing game for quarterback Cory Brandon, who finished the regular season with a career-best 23 touchdowns.
You'll know they're playing poorly if: It sounds cliche, but protecting Brandon in the pocket and not allowing opposing defenses to clog Smith's running lanes. Brandon was well protected against Mount Ida last weekend, but was sacked four times against Norwich during the second to last week of the regular season.
This season's turning point: Their one-score setback to Alfred -- the first game of the season -- along with an important road win over Castleton last month would be two possible turning points; however, another would be their win two weeks ago over Norwich. The Cadets entered the game riding a four-game winning streak and needed a win to keep their conference title hopes alive.
Strength of schedule (rank): .444 (219)
Rushing/passing yards per game: 259.0/211.8
Rushing/passing yards allowed: 28.7/133.5
Yards per play/allowed per play: 6.2/3.2
How far can they go? A win is certainly possible in the first round but wouldn't expect the presumptive second-round rematch to be nearly as close as the first meeting.
Bears Bridgewater State Bears
Seed:Likely No. 8, Alfred bracket
Last Top 25 ranking: Never ranked
Location: Bridgewater, MA
Enrollment (FT undergrads): 7094
Stadium: Swenson Field (2000)
Playing surface: Turf
Conference: MASCAC
Preseason ranking from Kickoff: 114
Head coach: Joe Verria, interim
Career record: 8-2 (.800)
Base offense: Spread
Base defense: 4-3
Record in NCAA playoffs: 0-3 (1999-2000, 2012)
NCAA D-III championships: None

D3football.com team page: Schedule and results, more news

Points for Points against
274 186
How they got here: Pool A, MASCAC champ
You'll know they're playing well if: Malik Garrett is involved in both the passing and running games. Garrett is someone opposing defenses will need to keep an eye on -- he has lined up in the slot, out wide and in the backfield this season, and has the potential to take over a game.
You'll know they're playing poorly if: The defense doesn't get to the quarterback or if the offensive line struggles to create running lanes for Garrett, Alex McLaughlin and Danny Higgins.
This season's turning point: Following their second setback of the season, the Bears immediately turned the page to their "new/second season" -- their conference slate -- and went on an eight-game winning streak. Not every game was easy, especially their contests against Plymouth State and Framingham State, but somehow the Bears made enough plays in both games to earn victories.
Strength of schedule (rank): .496 (127)
Rushing/passing yards per game: 182.1/213.2
Rushing/passing yards allowed: 104.6/182.2
Yards per play/allowed per play: 5.0/4.3
How far can they go? Out to western New York and back.