Russell Minor-Shaw will likely play a major role in the MAC race with King's. King's athletics photo by Heidi Kearney

While Week 7 in Division III football feels like the beginning of the home stretch, the Conference of New England is kicking off conference play this weekend. Conference play in the ECFC also gets underway for the final time. We’re watching big games that are going to impact conference and playoff races. Does the WIAC produce another Top 25 upset? Will the MAC come into focus or become a four-team horse race? Also, get those slide rules ready because we’re going to do some quick math in this week’s edition of Quick Hits.

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Patrick Coleman, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: No. 7 Grove City at Washington & Jefferson. The Presidents had Carnegie Mellon on the ropes early in an eventual 30-27 overtime loss. The Wolverines just dispatched the Tartans last weekend. Grove City can seize control of the PAC title race with a win, while the Presidents could open up significant drama should they hold serve at home. The PAC race continues to heat up this weekend in Washington.
	Pateick's take: No. 6 UW-Platteville at No. 16 UW-Oshkosh. Latest test for both Platteville's run and Oshkosh's penchant for playing and winning tight games at home against ranked teams.
	Frank's take: No. 7 Grove City at Washington & Jefferson. As we discussed on my show this week, this game has the potential to create some real issues nationally. If W&J wins, there could be three 9-1 PAC teams this season, all within a closed conference and all meriting playoff bids. This wasn’t a conference that was presumed to get three bids — which could create issues for conferences like the WIAC. This will be a close game that W&J COULD win.
	Logan's take: For the last three weeks, about half of our panelists have picked a PAC or WIAC game for GOTW, and I expect this week to be more of the same. Easily the two biggest games are No. 7 Grove City at Washington & Jefferson and No. 6 UW-Platteville @ No. 16 UW-Oshkosh, and games against top teams in these conferences rarely disappoint (and the production quality on their *free* broadcasts is second to none). I'm going to lean Grove City at W&J as the more consequential game of the two.
	Riley's take: No. 7 Grove City at Washington & Jefferson. Grove City got past its first big test last Saturday, beating Carnegie Mellon, and now the Wolverines face a similarly talented team in W&J, doing so on the road. W&J's lone loss came to CMU in overtime, and QB Jacob Pugh is just 185 passing yards away from reaching the 2,000-yard mark in seven games. Behind Pugh, the W&J offense is high-powered, and comes off a 73-point performance at Geneva. But Grove City's defense showed a lot of positives in its win over CMU, tallying a pair of interceptions and holding the Tartans to their lowest scoring output in a game since the second round playoff loss to North Central in 2022. This has every indication of being a tight, down-to-the-wire battle.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 7 Grove City. The Wolverines are hot, no doubt. They’ve won 16 consecutive regular season games dating back to…a 31-17 loss at Washington & Jefferson in 2022. In fact, the last time Grove City won at W&J was in the middle of the R.J. Bowers era in 1998.
	Patrick's take: No. 10 UW-River Falls. I mean, just predicting the wackiness of the WIAC to persist for another week, and with Kaleb Blaha apparently back on the shelf for UWRF, the odds become just a little better.
	Frank's take: No. 21 Johns Hopkins (vs. Franklin & Marshall). It’s a topsy-turvy season for the Blue Jays, with offense injuries galore. While the team played well vs. Gettysburg last week, this game has a feel of a potential let-down game, as the Diplomats have played reasonably good football all season.
	Logan's take: This week is another week with a lot of large favorites among Top 25 teams. Other than my GOTW, only one other game features a Top 25 team with less than a 90% of winning against an unranked opponent - Johns Hopkins at home against Franklin and Marshall. Grove City looked composed last week against CMU, and I'm not necessarily betting against them, but if the caveat is most likely to get upset, I think GCC fits the bill this week.
	Riley's take: No. 13 DePauw. Denison is 4-0 in NCAC play, and gets DePauw at home in this matchup. There's reason to feel confident that Denison's offense is capable of finding the end zone against DePauw, but the question becomes how often the Big Red will be able to score to keep pace with what the Tigers do offensively. And to that point, while opposing QBs are completing just 51.2% of their passes against Denison, the pass defense has a tendency to give up big plays, something that can't happen frequently when facing an explosive offense like DePauw's. If those big passing plays are kept to a minimum and the offense moves the ball consistently, Denison should be in position for an upset.

Which Conference of New England team will score the most points?

	Greg's take: Western New England. The Golden Bears have been consistent on offense against a pretty good schedule. Curry has looked good against the ECFC, but struggled to limit points against better teams I’ll take WNE to be the highwater team on a CNE opening weekend where I expect all three winners to put up big scores.
	Patrick's take: I'm lifting the cone of silence to say Western New England. The Golden Bears are tied with Endicott for the most points scored in the conference and Curry has given up a number of points this year, even if almost half of them are to Hardin-Simmons.
	Frank's take: No. 11 Endicott (at Univ. of New England). This game has a chance to test every light in the scoreboard — Endicott will surge offensively in this one.
	Logan's take: The three favorites in the CNE this week all have potent offenses. Going purely by my model, it would rank Husson (47.2), WNE (45.6), and then Endicott (43.5). Of those three, I'm most confident in Endicott.
	Riley's take: Western New England. Facing Curry on homecoming, WNE's offense has the capability for a high-scoring performance. The Golden Bears have the top rushing attack in the CNE and five different pass-catchers have 100+ receiving yards, three of whom have at least one reception of at least 40 yards. There's big-play potential within the WNE offense, and that often leads to a high accumulation of points. Curry's defense isn't bad, but it has some weak points. Having had two weeks to prepare for this matchup, the Golden Bears should be in a good position to take advantage of those.

Which under the radar game are you following?

	Greg's take: Redlands at Cal Lutheran. Redlands is on a ten-game win streak in this rivalry series, but the Bulldogs are really scuffling offensively. Cal Lutheran is coming off a win at La Verne and are going to have their best shot in a decade at winning the Smudge Pot. Late night trophy game for those that partake!
	Patrick's take: I'm looking at the Key City Clash between the University of Dubuque and Loras College. Loras has struggled this season but a rivalry game always gets people fired up.
	Frank's take: FDU-Florham at Delaware Valley. I’ll be attending this game, in which the win/loss records seem reversed this year. FDU-Florham is the undefeated team and seemed to be looking past Alvernia last week. DelVal has to win this game to ensure playoff potential through Pool A still. A loss would make their Pool C hopes slim at 8-2 potentially. The Red Devils would be in prime position with a win on the road.
	Logan's take: I mentioned it on my Football Analytics 3:01 segment on the Around the Nation podcast, but pay close attention to the John Carroll vs. Baldwin Wallace game this week. Both teams already have losses to Mount Union, so Pool A is likely out of the picture, but this is the highest leverage game of the week among Pool C hopefuls. A loss eliminates either team, while a win keeps them on track for an at-large.
	Riley's take: Kean at TCNJ. Kean enters 2-0 in NJAC play, having bounced back with consecutive wins after an 0-3 start that included two seven-point losses. TCNJ is 1-1 in league play, and has been in its share of tight games so far as well, with three decided by one score or less. But here's what stands out to me: Kean's defense is allowing just 18.0 PPG, the best mark in the NJAC, while TCNJ's offense is putting up 440 yards per game. We know TCNJ can score in bunches, but the Lions have also been turnover-prone. A solid defense like Kean's, which already has eight interceptions, can certainly take advantage of those miscues. In a matchup like this one, a couple turnovers might be the difference in the outcome.

20 winless teams remain. How many will pick up their first win this weekend?

	Greg's take: Maybe it’s the optimist in me, but I think the winless team cohort gets trimmed considerably this week. I like four teams to win, three on the road which is probably the kiss of doom. Lawrence, Crown, Otterbein, and Alvernia all have good looks at win number one.
	Patrick's take: One: Otterbein. It seems like the Wilmington-Otterbein winner will be a good pick, if only we can figure out who that will be. Going with the Cardinals, who hopefully can score.
	Frank's take: 3. We’re guaranteed at least one. The other two are by attrition.
	Logan's take: There's only one winless team who's a favorite this weekend (Otterbein hosting also-winless-Wilmington), and one other who is in a pure tossup matchup (Alvernia hosting Eastern). I think Eastern is probably going to be too much for Alvernia, so I'm going with Otterbein to win, and score more than their 7 ppg average against a Wilmington defense allowing 55 ppg.
	Riley's take: Two. Otterbein (over Wilmington) and Crown (over Westminster, Mo.).

Who will be in first place in the MAC at the end of the weekend?

	Greg's take: The MAC could get spicy this weekend and end Week 7 in a four way tie. I think Delaware Valley (over FDU-Florham) and Stevenson (over Albright)  will do their part and get three quarters of the way there. King's, however, isn’t interested in feeding my affinity for standings chaos, will defeat Lebanon Valley and walk out of Week 7 as the sole undefeated team in the MAC.
	Patrick's take: King's. That means FDU loses to Del Val but even though FDU has definitely been putting points on the board of late, this game is at Delaware Valley, which is generally a ... let's say, raucous place to visit.
	Frank's take: I’m leaning toward a four-way tie at one loss (King’s/FDU/DelVal/Stevenson).
	Logan's take: Let's do some math! Here are the teams who could be in first place, and their win probability this weekend: FDU-Florham (4-0, 31% vs. DVU) King's (4-0, 51% vs. LebVal) Delaware Valley (3-1, 69% vs. FDU) Stevenson (3-1, 97% vs. Albright)   You can multiply those probabilities together to get the following pairings and their likelihood: King's: 51%×69% = 35% (most likely) All 4 tied: 49%×69%×97% = 33% King's & FDU: 51%×31% = 16% FDU: 49%×31% = 15% King's, FDU, & DelVal: 49%×69%×3% = 1%
	Riley's take: King's. The Monarchs are 4-0 in league play, and the King's offense is in a favorable position with its 272 rushing yards/game against a Lebanon Valley defense that has struggled to stop the run. It'll be tight, but I think the Monarch offense will secure the win. Combined with a Delaware Valley win over FDU-Florham in a competitive, defense-controlled matchup, King's will be alone atop the MAC standings by the end of the weekend.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!