Our playoff surprises, disappointments

Two-time national champion North Central does not lurk in the shadows, waiting for games. They are right up in your face. North Central athletics photo of John Sullivan by Steve Woltmann

By Greg Thomas
D3sports.com

Welcome to the Road to Houston!

The Stagg Bowl returns to Texas this year which feels appropriate for the first super-sized tournament. For the first time, 40 teams will enter the chase for the Walnut and Bronze and the six-round tournament begins on Saturday with the first eight games of the championship. 

Last year's national champion Cortland returns to defend its title. Last year the Red Dragons were road warriors on the way to a title -- this year, they are seeded fourth overall and may not need to travel until the semifinal round. Standing in their way, last year’s runner up, North Central. The Cardinals won their first championship in 2019 in the last Stagg Bowl played in Texas and could return to the Lone Star state to collect their third title in the last five tournaments. 

The expanded field has expanded opportunities for conference runners up as well. Just twice in the 32-team era did a single conference place three teams in the field. This year both the Presidents Athletic Conference and the Southern Athletic Association will be represented by three teams. For the PAC tri-champs -- Washington & Jefferson, Grove City, and Carnegie Mellon- the tournament is their first opportunity to measure their strength against the rest of the division following a regular season exclusive to conference play.  

The tournament welcomes back a representative from the Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference. The SCAC returns from a seven-year hiatus and even though they do not have an automatic qualifier, Texas Lutheran qualified as an at-large team. The SCAC’s last playoff representative came in 2014 -- also Texas Lutheran. The Bulldogs are one of 18 one-loss teams to be part of this field, joining 11 undefeated teams and 11 multi-loss teams. Fourteen of the losses taken by the 18 one-loss teams came at the hands of another team in the tournament- two others came at UW-Oshkosh. 

The tournament kicks off with four games at noon Eastern time on Saturday. Three more games follow an hour later before we can focus in on the end of the first round at the Pine Bowl at Whitworth. The largest college football tournament in history begins on Saturday. Let the chase for the Walnut & Bronze begin. 

There will be plenty of content here at D3football.com on the road to Houston to get you ready for the 2024 Division III Football Championship. Our team capsules are live, and our Quick Hits panel will be back tomorrow to predict the score of every first round game. 

As is tradition here at ATN, we're going to dive deep into each of the four quadrants of the 2024 Division III playoff bracket. ATN has assembled a panel of Division III football experts to break down each region of the bracket. Can North Central be stopped two years in a row? How well will the NPI rankings hold up head-to-head? Is there another surprise champion lurking in the crowd of 40?  

Our postseason panel consists of Publisher and Executive Editor Patrick Coleman, creator of Hansen Ratings and Quick Hits panelist Logan Hansen, Managing Editor of True to the Cru Riley Zayas, and me, Around the Nation Columnist Greg Thomas. Before we get to our score predictions on Friday, we took an in-depth look at each quadrant of the bracket.

For each region, our panelists picked one team that will surprise, one that will disappoint, and one that will make it through to the national semifinals. 

Nobody on the panel consulted with one another; each person did their part independently. The panelists are spread out across the country, so hopefully any perception of bias balances out. 

Matt Jung is part of a stifling Bethel defense which has been particularly stout against the run. Photo by Caleb Williams, d3photography.com

ST. JOHN'S BRACKET

Surprises

Riley: Bethel. The Royals are, by my analysis, the first-round team in the best position to reach the third round. And I think they will. Bethel's defense is for real, the nation's top unit when it comes to stopping the run, and we've seen notable progress from the Royals as the season has progressed. If they're able to lean on their defense and the offense gets going early, Bethel has a good shot at playing in December. 

Logan: Bethel. The Royals have looked outstanding in every game outside their two matchups with the Johnnies. Just going by their position in the Top 25 poll, I don't think many people are expecting them to make a super long run, but this is a team capable of at least making the semis.

Greg: UW-Platteville. I might be taking some low-hanging fruit here but the Pioneers are only the fourth highest rated team in this region and will open this tournament on the road at 2022 and 2023 semifinalist Wartburg. But if the Pioneers can advance past Wartburg, they’ll be swinging the axe for at least one game back in Platteville and have a great shot to advance all the way out of this region. Sleep on the WIAC champion at your own risk.

Pat: Bethel. It's a surprise if you're reading the NCAA's seedings, at least, but Bethel to the third round is not surprising, where I then expect lower seed Platteville to meet them after a road win of its own.

Disappointments

Riley: UW-Platteville. I'm not sure that we'll see a WIAC team reach the third round. Now, Wartburg is an exceptional team, but UW-Platteville should be the favorite in that second-round contest, so a loss by the Pioneers may qualify as a disappointment. Wartburg's passing game presents some challenges for the Platteville defense, in my opinion, especially when the Knights really take to the air.

Logan: Lake Forest. The Foresters are used to getting into the playoffs and playing a national power in the first round on the road. This year they get to play whoever comes out of the Bethel/Coe matchup, but I think it'll probably be pretty disappointing results.

Greg: I might be in a minority of people who think it is great that Lake Forest was able to earn a top 8 seed and be able to host a playoff game. Except that they won’t be hosting a playoff game. I don’t know what will happen in Lake Forest’s second round game, but I’m disappointed that we won’t get a chance to see the Foresters bring the NCAA tournament to Farwell Field which would have been a great moment for the institution.

Pat: Wartburg. I think they have floated up too highly in our poll and NPI does them no favors seeding them this high. Of course, if they were facing Hobart, like a 3 seed should be, then we wouldn't be having this discussion.

Last team standing

Riley: St. John's. The Johnnies missed the playoffs last year and I expect SJU will make up for lost time with a deep run this time around. Aaron Syverson has been prolific at QB, leading a passing attack that averages 374.0 yards per game. The entire offense has been stellar, converting on exactly half of their third downs, and leading the MIAC in yards per game. The defense is there too, having held opponents to a scoring rate of just 56.5% in the red zone. The Johnnies will reach the national semifinals for the first time since 2019.

Logan: St. John's. The Johnnies have already beaten two of their three biggest challengers in this bracket, and they'll get home field throughout. At this point, it seems folly to bet against them.

Greg: St. John’s. The Johnnies have been snake bit by the tournament’s top seed before, and this trip through the region is likely to be as difficult as any three game stretch faced by any of the tournament’s top-four seeds.  Behind the poise and experience of Aaron Syverson, and backed by the thousands of Johnnie fans at Clemens Stadium, this could be the time for St. John’s to return to the final four.

Pat: St. John's. It won't be without a few battles, but the St. John's passing game ought to be enough. And now I'll reminisce about that previous Platteville-St. John's playoff meeting in 2016 and ask rhetorically if there is official video review in the quarterfinals. No?

When you pick Springfield as a surprise, it doesn't automatically mean that you're talking about their passing game ... but that also would be a surprise. Logan Schenck, for example, has five of the Pride's 18 receptions on the season. Springfield athletics photo by Eli Travaglino

CORTLAND BRACKET

Surprises

Riley: Springfield. The triple option presents a difficult matchup for most opponents, considering the unique look of that offensive formation and the extent to which a run-heavy team wears down an opposing defensive front. The Pride is the lone offense in Division III averaging over 400 rushing yards per game, and with the cohesion of Springfield's offense, there's definitely a path to a deep playoff run as long as the defense also takes care of business and carries over its momentum from the regular season.

Logan: Springfield. I don't think they'll necessarily get past Cortland or Endicott, but I think the Pride play the style of football that makes it difficult on opponents to come back from. Cortland has made a habit of getting behind in their biggest games, and if that happens against one of the best rushing offenses in the country, the clock is not your friend.

Greg: Springfield. The Pride are an experienced bunch and the Springfield triple option is firing on all cylinders. I favor the Pride in their opening round game, and believe they will give fits to whoever advances to face them in a third round game.

Pat: Not sure anyone is in a position to really surprise in this bracket, so I'm going to take a flyer and suggest that Mass-Dartmouth could surprise. And yes, the Dante Aviles-Santos led offense could get the job done, assuming it can get enough time on the field against a Springfield offense which could certainly chew clock if it chose to.

Disappointments

Riley: Cortland. There's a lot to like about the Red Dragons, but I think there are also some potential challenges within this region, aside from North Central. As the defending national champs and a 10-0 team in this tournament, the expectations are high. Cortland wins its second round game, but sees its tournament run end before a Stagg Bowl rematch with North Central.

Logan: Hope. They were unbelievably close to getting at least two rounds of home field advantage, narrowly missing out behind Lake Forest. They're the overall 9 seed in the tournament, and their prize is getting matched up with potentially two of the most underseeded teams in the bracket, between Aurora and North Central.

Greg: Aurora. This pick is much less to do with Aurora and more to do with Hope being really good. Aurora has been a big tournament story recently, winning games in each of the last two tournaments. Hope will be very difficult to beat in the second round meaning Aurora could be one and out for the first time in three tournaments.

Pat: Hope, perhaps? There's been a lot of noise made about how many undefeated teams are in this quadrant, even though one of them is unranked and another is No. 23. But it's the one-loss ones that have played tough competition that you need to watch out for.

Last team standing

Riley: North Central. I don't see how you pick against the Cardinals here. NCC is the nation's No. 1 team for a reason, and if you don't think so, just look at their performances in the biggest games of their regular season schedule. A 48-21 win at Aurora opened the season, followed by a statement 49-9 win over WashU two weeks later. And Wheaton, NCC's top challenger in the CCIW, was handily beaten at home, 55-27. The Cardinals are a complete team, with strength in all three phases of the game, and QB Luke Lehnen is in position for a huge postseason.

Logan: North Central. I should have said that it's disappointing we have a potential Stagg Bowl rematch in the quarters, but I think the trajectory of these two teams since that game suggest North Central has the upper hand. Cortland doesn't look to be as explosive without a couple professional-caliber WRs, and North Central hasn't missed a beat.

Pat: North Central. You can be sure that, should North Central and Cortland each make it to the quarterfinals in New York, that there will be some unfinished business for the Cardinals at play.

Bold words below from Logan Hansen about Caden Whithead's team. DePauw athletics photo by Fiona Sipple

HARDIN-SIMMONS BRACKET

Surprises

Riley: Mary Hardin-Baylor. UMHB opens the postseason in a stadium and against an opponent with which they are very familiar (this will be the third consecutive year they've played at Trinity). After losing in the regular season there last year, reaching the second round would be big, and if that happens, you get to a matchup with Hardin-Simmons. I'm not sure it's ever happened where two teams played three times in a season, but that's what would happen here, creating a tough matchup for Hardin-Simmons as the favorite. It's difficult to beat a team twice in a season, much less three times in a seven-week span. We've seen UMHB at its best this season, and we've also seen the Crusaders at their worst. But they're a wild card and one that's in position to surprise. After all, 20 years ago they entered the playoffs in almost the exact same spot and went all the way to Salem.

Logan: DePauw. I'm going to say something pretty bold. I think DePauw is good enough to win this whole tournament. They don't have an easy path, but it's also not filled with four or five Top 10 teams. I think they have the potential to put up some huge numbers against teams most people think are better than them.

Greg: Grove City. Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised by Grove City any more. In this region, Grove City starts on the road, and is just the fifth highest ranked team by NPI. This region as much as any feels very tightly packed.  Two or three wins are not out of the question for a Wolverines squad that was one play away from knocking out last year’s eventual champion.

Pat: Picking Grove City as my surprise, just because they are not seeded as if they should be favored at Johns Hopkins. But I think they probably should be.

Disappointments

Riley: Making this pick is hard for all four regions, but especially this one. "Disappoint" is a fairly relative term anyways. So I'm going to go with Berry, picking Maryville for the first-round upset on the road. Berry is an outstanding team, though I think Maryville's run defense will match up especially well with the Viking offense, forcing Berry to throw more than usual. That could open the door to a Maryville upset and a disappointing end for the Vikings, who are making their first playoff appearance since 2019.

Logan: Mary Hardin-Baylor. I'm sure the Cru aren't disappointed they got into the tournament, but it's disappointing to see a potential third matchup with HSU, and there wasn't much in their first two matchups that suggests to me we should expect much of a different results, that is if they get past Trinity first.

Greg: Mary Hardin-Baylor. Unfortunately, there just isn’t a lot of room for the Crusaders to try and stretch their legs. They’ll have an opening round game at Trinity, which would be disappointing for them if they lose. If they win, they get to go back to Abilene to play Hardin-Simmons- who has already handled UMHB twice this season- for a third time.

Pat: Trinity. Even in the relatively minor case of winning a first-round home game between an 8-9 seed. Heading for Hardin Bowl III.

Last team standing

Riley: DePauw. The Tigers made a tremendous statement with their 33-0 win on the road at Berry in Week 2, and since then, DePauw simply dominated the remainder of its regular season schedule. Their average margin of victory is 41.4 points, in large part a credit to a stifling defense that allows just 0.9 yards/carry and a mere 26.8 rushing yards per game. DePauw has one of the nation's best run defenses, and a solid pass defense to boot, putting the Tigers in a position of strength entering the tournament. They appear equally strong offensively, and the well-roundedness of this squad will guide DePauw to a national semifinal run.

Logan: Hardin-Simmons. My model actually says DePauw is most likely individual team, but that the semifinalist is more likely to be any of the Texas teams than DePauw. I'm hedging a little here, but I also think home field advantage, especially when flights are involved, is going to be huge.

Greg: Hardin-Simmons. This is such a tough quadrant to call.  About half of the teams in this region could get to the semifinals and not surprise me. Hardin-Simmons has a slight edge for me, because after their first game, future opponents will need to figure out how to work around a travel day in their game week. Advantage Cowboys.

Pat: Hardin-Simmons. But I could be convinced to take DePauw. And I could be convinced to take Linfield.

The Presidents of Washington & Jefferson are back in the playoffs after some time away. W&J athletics photo by Stephen Rydzak

SALISBURY BRACKET

Surprises

Riley: Carnegie Mellon. The Tartan defense has been superb this season, giving up just 11.8 points and 53.2 rushing yards per game. When they're at their best, this is a team that is awfully difficult to beat, as the defense forces plenty of three-and-outs and the offense is very balanced between the run and the pass. Not only do I think Carnegie Mellon gets past Centre in the second round, but I think a third-round appearance could definitely be in the cards for the Tartans.

Logan: John Carroll. Predicting upsets in conference rematches hasn't been a great idea this year... but maybe it'll work this time. John Carroll finished the regular season with their best performance of the year against Marietta, and I think they should cruise past MSJ, and then have the potential to pull off the upset in Alliance.

Greg: Washington & Jefferson. The Presidents are back in the tournament for the first time since 2018 and have a favorable draw to the quarterfinals. A pair of challenging games are in the way, for sure, but winnable for the automatic qualifiers from the PAC.

Pat: Ursinus and Washington & Jefferson are both road teams who I would consider to be in position to win their playoff openers.

Disappointments

Riley: Mount Union. The Purple Raiders are 10-0, but they've had multiple close calls, including a pair of narrow wins over Marietta and Muskingum. Perhaps the playoff atmosphere will bring out a different level of intensity, and that may end up being the case. But it also seems there is a path to an early exit for Mount Union, especially if the Purple Raiders struggle to get the run game going.

Logan: Salisbury. The Gulls were on an absolute tear in the early going this season, but their defense has never really settled in, and has struggled against teams that aren't going to be as good as any of the four teams they could play in the first round. Ursinus and W&J especially can put up the points to keep pace.

Greg: Ursinus. Despite being ranked higher in NPI, Ursinus (last playoff appearance 1999) is going to travel to King’s (last playoff appearance 2002) for a first round game. Ursinus has cooled slightly since their point-splosions against Rowan and Muhlenberg earlier in the season, while King’s closed their season with impressive wins against MAC contenders Delaware Valley and Stevenson. King’s feels like the team riding a slightly stronger momentum wave, and with the home field advantage could spring the mild upset and send the Bears away with a disappointing first round loss.

Pat: Mount Union fans will be disappointed in anything less than a national championship, and at some point this season, I suspect Mount Union will end up with less than a national championship.

Last team standing

Riley: Salisbury. The triple-option offense is fun to watch, and I expect we'll get to see it through several rounds of these playoffs. Salisbury has been tested multiple times, facing Muhlenberg and Johns Hopkins early on as well as Rowan in NJAC play, and in all three instances came away with a victory. The offense needs to produce for the Sea Gulls to make a run, and if that happens, look for Salisbury's season to extend well into December.

Logan: Carnegie Mellon. My heart tells me to just pick Mount Union and not rock the boat, but I have been extremely impressed with Carnegie Mellon all year. They have one of the best defenses - maybe the best - in the country, a defense good enough to not just keep them in games, but to win games outright against top-tier teams.

Greg: Mount Union. The Purple Raiders have raised some eyebrows this season with some closer-than-usual scores including a pair of dramatic, late winners against John Carroll and Marietta. The Purple Raiders may not be blowing everyone out in the way we’re used to seeing, but they are finding ways to win. If Noah Beaudrie gets progressively healthier as the rounds progress, Mount Union may well find themselves peaking at the right time and right back in the semifinals.

Pat: Salisbury, in a thriller of a game that might well be a game between QB2s.

Read options?

Small college football is actually pretty massive. Division III is home to 240 teams, many thousands of student-athletes and coaches. There are so many more stories out there than I can find on my own. Please share your stories that make Division III football so special for all of us! Reach out to me at greg.thomas@d3sports.com or on X @wallywabash to share your stories.

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