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| UW-Stout has been throwing a wrench in the WIAC all season and could continue to on Saturday. Photo by Doug Sasse, d3photography.com |
By Greg Thomas
D3football.com
A 40-team tournament. It has been the dominant storyline throughout this 2024 season and in just three days we’re going to find out who those 40 teams are that will participate in the first ever six-round championship playoff in college football history.
At about this point of the season, Around The Nation often takes a deep dive and projects the handful of at-large teams that will be selected, but this year we’ll take a slightly different approach. With twelve at-large bids to be determined by the NCAA Power Index (NPI), prognosticating how exactly those twelve bids will be awarded is a monumental challenge that we can’t really tackle in the space of 1000 or so words. Because the results of every game have wide ranging impact on the decimal points of other NPIs, you really need to simulate the entire week’s worth of games to predict how the final NPI will shake out, and Logan Hansen (@LogHanRatings on X) is doing exactly that. Around The Nation won’t project results for all 112 games this weekend, but we will take the time to zero in on the games to watch that have the most direct impact on the tournament field in Week 11.
Starting with Pool A- the automatic bids for conference champions, 18 of these automatic bids have been taken, and ten remain.
ECFC
Championship will be decided by: A conference championship game between Alfred State and Anna Maria. Gallaudet also tied these two with a 2-1 record in conference play, but lost the tiebreak to be part of this championship game.
Pool C chances: None. These teams are all ranked deep in the 100s in NPI and far, far away from the Pool C conversation.
HCAC
Championship will be decided by: Rose-Hulman at Mount St. Joseph. The Lions can win the HCAC outright with a win and completing an undefeated conference season. The Engineers can force a three-way tie in the HCAC by winning coupled with a Hanover win against Franklin. Should Hanover slip, Rose-Hulman would win the automatic bid by beating MSJ this weekend.
Pool C chances: None. The HCAC’s teams aren’t quite as deep on the NPI list as the ECFC’s teams, but still not near the at-large conversation. In the case of that three-way tie, it would go all the way down to the fifth tiebreaker for the HCAC, which is the strength of schedule, or in this case, SOS as determined by NPI. Entering the week, Rose-Hulman has the best SOS, followed by Mount St. Joseph and Hanover. Of course, both RHIT and MSJ will see their SOS rise from playing each other. This may require math.
MIAC
Championship will be decided by: The MIAC championship game between Bethel and St. John’s.
Pool C chances: Very good. St. John’s would be a lock as an at-large team should they lose this weekend. Even with a loss, Bethel also appears to be on the safer side of the bubble. We expect both to be in the NCAA tournament.
NCAC
Championship will be decided by: Wabash at DePauw in the 130th Monon Bell Classic. Both teams enter this titanic rivalry unbeaten in conference play. This game rarely needs any extra juice, but a ticket to the playoffs is a nice add to the winner’s prize package.
Pool C chances: Great, but only for DePauw. The Tigers appear to be a lock for this tournament no matter how Saturday’s contest plays out. Wabash would likely just miss the tournament if they picked up a second loss.
NEWMAC
Championship will be decided by: Springfield at SUNY-Maritime. Despite Springfield’s dominance, the Pride aren’t in the barn just yet. SUNY-Maritime is 5-1 in NEWMAC play and can spoil the fourth consecutive Springfield conference title.
Pool C chances: Like DePauw, Springfield is going to be in this tournament either way. Bubble teams do not want Springfield out of Pool A. SUNY-Maritime is not in play for an at-large bid.
NWC
Championship will be decided by: Linfield at Whitworth. This one isn’t a formal conference championship game, but it will play that way as the two undefeated NWC teams clash in Week 11.
Pool C chances: Solid. Whitworth would be a virtual lock to make the field even with a loss. Linfield would likely be near the end of the 12 at-large teams to make it, but have a decent chance even if they slide to 8-2.
PAC
Championship will be decided by: Grove City at Westminster (Pa.), Carnegie Mellon at Case Western Reserve, and Washington & Jefferson at Allegheny. All of the pieces matter here. W&J wins a three-team tiebreak if all three of the PAC’s leaders win and finish 9-1 or if they finish 9-1 with just Grove City. If W&J and CMU end as the only 1-loss teams, CMU wins the automatic bid.
Pool C chances: Tremendous. If all of W&J, CMU, and Grove City finish with 9-1 records, they will all go to the tournament and the PAC will gobble up two at-large bids. Should any pick up a second loss, however, those chances of an at-large bid go way, way down.
SAA
Championship will be decided by: In other three way tie scenario, the games to watch are Sewanee at Centre, Berry at Rhodes, and Trinity (Texas) at Millsaps. The conference leaders are Centre, Berry and Trinity (Texas). These teams beat each other earlier in the season and the SAA tiebreak will look at strength of schedule to resolve this knot. Berry’s non-conference games with DePauw and Randolph-Macon give the Vikings a decided edge, but if this tiebreak is needed, it will come down to the results of games involving all of the teams these leaders played.
Pool C chances: Centre and Berry are in good shape with wins. Trinity appears to be right on the line if they win and finish 8-2. One at-large team seems likely, two may be possible but may require a little bit of help.
SCIAC
Championship will be decided by: The SCIAC championship game between Surf division champions Chapman and Sun division champions Pomona-Pitzer. Pomona-Pitzer defeated Chapman 21-17 earlier this season.
Pool C chances: None. Both teams are below the NPI threshold we expect for at-large teams and cannot accept an additional loss.
WIAC
Championship will be decided by: UW-Platteville at UW-Stout. UW-Platteville wins the league title outright with a win. A UW-Stout win could well spin the WIAC into a four way tie or a three way tie, but no matter how those ties that involve UW-Stout and some combination of UW-Platteville, UW-Oshkosh, and UW-La Crosse, UW-Stout wins the automatic bid.
Pool C chances: The parity in this conference has made the Pool C picture very interesting and it may not be given that we’ll see multiple WIAC teams in the tournament. Platteville would be pretty safe, if necessary. UW-Oshkosh would be pretty safe with a win at River Falls. River Falls could play their way on to the bubble, but only at Oshkosh’s expense. La Crosse looks like they’ll be one of the last teams in or first teams out.
Not giving an automatic bid, but worth talking about as well is the SCAC and Texas Lutheran. The Bulldogs are currently at 8-1 and host Southwestern in the regular season finale. Should the Bulldogs get to 9-1, they would have a very strong chance to earn an invitation to the tournament as an at-large team.
Other games that Around The Nation is keeping an eye on that have major Pool C implications this weekend are:
Marietta at John Carroll. With a win, Marietta could earn a spot in the playoffs for the first time. A loss likely sends Marietta to the Opendorse Bowl, but John Carroll would play themselves into contention with a win.
Ursinus at Dickinson. The Bears are on the cusp of qualifying for the NCAA playoffs and season ending with at Dickinson would get it done. A second loss for Ursinus is probably one too many, however.
North Park at Wheaton. I feel like we’re in a familiar situation with Wheaton and the Thunder being right on the bubble. The Thunder currently sit just outside of the top 12 at-large teams in NPI and need this win to have a shot. North Park has had a tendency to play up or down to their competition all year, so the Thunder can’t sleepwalk through this game.
Brockport at Alfred. Brockport could end the year with two single digit losses to Cortland and Susquehanna and their NPI may fall just short. This is the harshest scenario imaginable for a system that is agnostic to margins of victory (or defeat). The Golden Eagles can only take care of business against the Saxons this weekend and hope that they get just enough help to move into the top 12 of the at-large pool.
Howard Payne at Mary Hardin-Baylor. UMHB’s schedule has been challenging in 2024, but not in the way we typically say that a schedule is challenging. The Cru have been in a position to accept non-countable competition opportunities in order to fill out a schedule of something for their student-athletes, and the end result is that UMHB can finish 5-2 in divisional play for the year. The limited D3 schedule has the nice effect of ignoring completely the loss to Bethel(Tenn.), but the adverse effect of needing to count 1-7 Howard Payne twice and having both of those games count in their NPI. UMHB currently sits just outside of the top 12 and will be one of the teams most closely watching the scoreboards this weekend.
How Many for 12?
How many teams are really in play for 12 at large spots? Let’s take a look at teams that cannot win an automatic bid this weekend. Around The Nation is going to start with teams we feel are pretty safely in regardless of this weekend’s results.
Pretty safe (2): Coe, in the clubhouse at 9-1, is currently the 9th highest at-large team in NPI. Week 11 would need to create mass chaos in order to move Coe to the wrong side of the bubble. The MIAC runner up. The numbers are very positive for St. John’s and Bethel regardless of who wins.
Win and In (5): Carnegie Mellon, Centre, Grove City, Texas Lutheran, Ursinus. All of these teams have pretty favorable matchups.
Win and In, but much harder (2): Marietta, UW-Oshkosh. The Pioneers and Titans each have to go on the road to play strong opponents that could potentially play themselves into contention.
Win and watch the scores (10): Alma, Brockport, Ithaca, John Carroll, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Monmouth(Ill.), Trinity(TX), UW-La Crosse, UW-River Falls, Wheaton(Ill.). There’s not much else this group can do except win and hope that the math breaks their way, which it will for some but not all. Some of these teams need more help than others, but Around The Nation is confident that the last two or three teams in the field will come from this group.
All together, we’re counting 19 teams in serious contention for 12 at-large spots. That pool of 19 can also grow if teams like DePauw, Whitworth, Springfield, or UW-Platteville lose and join the at-large pool. Those are the results that the teams above, especially the ten in the Win and Watch section don’t want to see.
Tune in on Sunday for the announcement of the 2024 NCAA Football Championship and of course D3Football.com’s reaction to the bracket reveal on Monday’s episode of the Around The Nation podcast.
Seven ways to Saturday
Whether you need to recap the week that was or get ready for the week to come, D3football.com is your daily source for fresh Division III football content. We’re bringing the content seven ways to Saturday.
Sunday: New Top 25 Poll
Monday: Around The Nation podcast. Pat Coleman and Greg Thomas recap the weekend that was and preview the weekend to come in Division III football.
Tuesday: Team of the Week Honors
Wednesday: Features columns
Thursday: Around the Nation Column
Friday: Quick Hits featuring our panel’s predictions and insights into the weekend’s games
Saturday: Game Day! The D3football.com Scoreboard has all of your links for stats and broadcasts.
I’d like to thank…
Special thanks to Logan Hansen of Hansen Ratings (@LogHanRatings on X) and D3Datacast’s Matt Snyder and Zack Snyder (@d3datacast on X) for presenting a lot of the data that informs this week’s analysis in accessible formats for all Division III football fans. xa.
Read options?
There’s nothing small about small college football. Division III is home to 240 teams, and many thousands of student-athletes and coaches. There are so many more stories out there than I can find on my own. Please share your stories that make Division III football so special for all of us! Reach out to me at greg.thomas@d3sports.com or on X @wallywabash to share your stories.
