Playoff picks, surprises and disappointments

Does Johns Hopkins' Week 11 loss make our panel feel differently about the former No. 3 team in the country? Photo by Mike Atherton, d3photography.com

By Greg Thomas
D3football.com

Past picks D3football.com has been making these picks in Around the Nation since 2001. Interested in a past season? Here's the list:
2001	2002	2003	2004
2005	2006	2007	2008
2009	2010	2011	2012
2013	2014	2015	2016
2017	2018	2019	2021
2022	2023	2024

Welcome to the Road to Canton! The Stagg Bowl heads back to Ohio this January, returning to Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in the shadow of the iconic Pro Football Hall of Fame. It’s also the second year of the super-sized 40-team tournament — still the biggest playoff bracket in college football — and the chase for the Walnut and Bronze begins with first round games on Saturday.

2024 national champion North Central returns aiming for a fourth title in six tournaments. A year ago, the Cardinals reclaimed the throne and this year, they enter as the No. 4 overall seed, with a path that may send them straight through Alliance, Ohio, and into a potential rematch of last year’s Stagg Bowl with Mount Union.

The expanded tournament era continues to reshape the postseason picture. For the first time in Division III football history, one conference has placed four teams into the bracket. Of course, it's the WIAC who backed up their reputation as the best conference in the division by going 17-2 against the rest of the division. The new-look Centennial Conference also placed three teams in the field for the first time in their conference’s history.

There are plenty of familiar faces. Ten teams are back for the fifth straight season or longer, continuing impressive runs of consistency. 2025 also brings a wave of newcomers. Franklin & Marshall, whose program traces back to 1887, is making its first-ever playoff appearance. Eastern, in just its third year of football, has qualified. And Crown, a program that only a few seasons ago dressed barely 30 players, stormed through the UMAC to reach its first ever postseason. The mix of longtime contenders and long-awaited debuts gives this year’s bracket a sense of both continuity and renewal.

The tournament kicks off with five noon games on Saturday, followed by a full afternoon of action as the first round unfolds across the country. The Road to Canton starts now.

As always, D3football.com will have full coverage throughout the 2025 Division III Football Championship. Team-by-team capsules are live, and our Quick Hits crew returns tomorrow to predict every first-round score.

And, as is tradition here at Around the Nation, we're taking a deep dive into each of the four quadrants of this year’s bracket. ATN has assembled a panel of Division III experts to break down every region, examine potential pitfalls, spotlight dark horses, and make their picks for who advances to the final four. Can North Central repeat? Can a team go from the first round to the final four? Which newcomers might steal the spotlight?

Our panel for this week’s Around The Nation includes D3football.com Publisher and Executive Editor Patrick Coleman; Around the Nation columnist Greg Thomas; Creator of and the original ATN author Keith McMillan; Hansen Ratings creator and Quick Hits panelist Logan Hansen; True to the Cru Managing Editor and Quick Hits panelist Riley Zayas; Quick Hits panelist Carlo Guadagnino of DingoTalk; and Mike Shoultz of the Voices in the Stands podcast.

Each panelist selected one team that will surprise, one that will disappoint, and one that will survive their quadrant and reach the national semifinals. Nobody consulted with anyone else; with contributors spread across the map, any hint of bias should cancel itself out.

Let’s dive in.

MOUNT UNION BRACKET

Surprises

Greg: Hardin-Simmons. Sometimes the breakthrough happens the year after the year. A year ago the Cowboys had one of the coveted top seeds, home field advantage for round after round and…a third matchup with rival UMHB in the second round derailed that tournament run before it got started. This year, the Cowboys are going to be road warriors and with a recent loss (again, to UMHB), Hardin-Simmons might be flying under the radar.

Patrick: Randolph-Macon. The Yellow Jackets have surprised in this part of the bracket before, so perhaps this is a makeup call. No, I didn't pick Macon in 2018, but none of the rest of the panel did, either. Fool me twice ... I won't be fooled again.

Keith: In a world where Hardin-Simmons does not have to play UMHB twice, we're probably looking at a 10-0 Cowboys team and an expected matchup with Mount Union, if not hosting its own quadrant. You never quite know what you're getting with Hardin-Simmons year to year because the schedule is so unlike most D-III schedules. But it's been 20-some-odd years now that the Cowboys have knocked on the door and come up short in the postseason; unfavorable matchups haven't helped, and they've got another one this year. But the Cowboys also have a 45-points-a-game offense. One of these years they have to get hot and go on a playoff run. Why not now?

Logan: Berry. After the Vikings lost to Carnegie Mellon in September, those two programs' seasons took completely different trajectories. CMU finished with a losing record in the CC, but Berry didn't have another competitive game for the rest of the season, beating teams by an average of 44-11 in their nine victories this season (including 23 & 48 point wins over teams in this quadrant). If the Vikings don't beat themselves, they can play with anyone in the country.

Riley: Hardin-Simmons. This might surprise some, but HSU's last playoff win came well over two decades ago in 2000. So while the Cowboys are the 12th overall seed, they're also looking to snap an 11-game skid in postseason play. They've got the pieces to do that this season with veteran contributors on both sides of the ball, and I think the Cowboys take it a step further than just a second-round win, advancing to the quarterfinal round.

Carlo: John Carroll. Since losing to Johns Hopkins in Week 2, the Blue Streaks have been on a war path — averaging 45 points per game, while only giving up just under 15 points a game. The NCAC champions could surprise some people. All roads seem to lead to Alliance.

Mike: Hardin-Simmons. HSU has not won a playoff game in 26 years. That’s right, they’re 0-12 since their last playoff win in 2000. History tells us that picking HSU to win just 1 playoff game is a surprise, but I think this HSU can put together a run. Knocking off Trinity and Berry in back to back road games would be quite the feat, I think this team can make it to the quarterfinals and finally break the Cowboy playoff curse.

 

Disappointments

Greg: John Carroll. It’s really hard not to get wide-eyed at that potential third round game that would pit the Blue Streaks against their former OAC rival, but John Carroll must not get caught looking ahead. Randolph-Macon has some history upsetting the apple cart in University Heights and, since that 10-0 result at Central, the Yellow Jackets have been dominant.

Patrick: That the No. 11 and No. 12 overall seed have to play each other in the second round and one of them will have to lose. Student-athletes in Texas continue to get shortened competition opportunities and development time at the hands of the almighty dollar.

Keith: The matchups here. We've explained and complained about the too-early Texas matchups for years. But this is a whole eliminate-the-south subbracket filled with ho-hum (potential) rematches of games we've seen before: Trinity/Hardin-Simmons, LaGrange/Berry, Randolph-Macon/John Carroll and John Carroll/Mount Union. Yay. Thrilling. (If I need to bold a team that might end up disappointed, it's the alma mater, which brings a tough defense and a plow-ahead offense to University Heights to face Nick Semptimphelter and the Blue Streaks.)

Logan: Hardin-Simmons. Before the start of November, Hardin-Simmons was riding high. A convincing win over their largest rival, an undefeated record, and a clear path toward a Top 8 seed that would have allowed them to avoid playing another Texas school in their first game, and to play at least two games at home. All of that fell apart in Belton. Now a first game exit isn't out of the question.

Riley: Berry. For as good as the Vikings have been, I think there's a chance their playoff run ends on the same day it begins. Berry will get either a senior-laden, motivated Hardin-Simmons team or a Trinity squad they beat at home midway through SAA play. Either will be a difficult matchup for the Vikings, particularly defensively.

Carlo: Hardin-Simmons. I think they are in for a battle with Trinity (Texas) and then a battle at Berry and again all roads lead to Alliance. This is a good Hardin-Simmons football team, but they have an uphill battle ahead of themselves.

Mike: Trinity (Texas). I think this team slowly eased its way up the Top 25 poll on a couple occasions this year, but personally I’ve never ranked Trinity higher than just No. 25 for one single week. The committee gives Trinity a tough matchup and this feels like a spot ripe for a home playoff loss.

 

Last team standing

Greg: Mount Union. Mount Union to the semifinals is not fait accompli- third, and especially fourth round games are going to be against sturdy competition, but I expect the Purple Raiders will hold up their end of the deal and find themselves hosting a semifinal game once again.

Patrick: Mount Union. Sure, by the highest of high Standard at Mount Union, the Purple Raiders are inconsistent, but that's still good enough to be a top five team in the country, and I have little doubt that they will play themselves into the semifinals.

Keith: We've given Mount Union much grief over the years (me as much as anybody) for weak nonconference scheduling and for backsliding into a very good team that could lose in any round of the playoffs as opposed to automatically be penciled into the Stagg Bowl. But, led by Kaleb Brown and Mikey Maloney, these Purple Raiders answered the bell right away against Grove City and Wheaton and haven't looked back. Mount Union appears on a semifinal collision course with its new red rival, and could deliver the biggest win of Geoff Dartt's head coaching career.

Logan: Mount Union. The Purple Raiders have had lapses this season where they've looked relatively pedestrian - the fourth quarter against Wheaton, the first half against Baldwin-Wallace, and the whole game against Marietta - but they're one of only five undefeated teams, and when they needed to, they have looked like a national title contender. I think there are several teams in this quadrant who can be competitive with them, but betting against Mount Union in the playoffs is a losing strategy.

Riley: Mount Union. The Purple Raiders rolled through the better part of their OAC schedule on the heels of two ranked wins over teams in this playoff field. Mikey Maloney has been everything you want in a starting quarterback, and the defense enters the postseason allowing just 12.9 points per game. This has all the makings of a team built to win in November and December.

Carlo: Mount Union is on a crash course for a 2024 Stagg Bowl Rematch with a chance to go to the 2025 Stagg Bowl on the line.

Mike: Mount Union. As much as I want to flirt with JCU here, I think the Purple Raiders are the most talented team in this quadrant. With home field advantage throughout, this is a tough spot for anyone to roll into Alliance and knock off the Purple Raiders.

 

NORTH CENTRAL BRACKET

Surprises

Greg: UW-Platteville. The Pioneers are incredibly tough to beat at home (currently on a 13 game home win streak), have a decent draw and have the ability to outplay their seed with a run to the quarterfinals.

Patrick: Hope. Usually this doesn't go to a home team, and they are the higher seed in the NPI, but generally UW-La Crosse is seen as better in 2025. I still pick Hope to surprise. I do not think the WIAC goes 4-0 in its first weekend.

Keith: Even in a quadrant with two teams from the mighty WIAC, Bethel stands out as the greatest threat to North Central. Normally a 10-0 two seed is no surprise, but anyone besides NCC coming out of this corner of the bracket would turn the D-III world on its head. The Royals allowed 6.5 points per game against a schedule with one challenge on it, and the road past, say, Coe and UW-Platteville won't be easy. But remember that Bethel has a score to settle from last season, with a game-winning catch at the end of the Susquehanna quarterfinal negated by holding.

Logan: Bethel. The Royals this season have the same problem as their MIAC counterparts St. John's - they have only played each other, and nobody else who ranks in the top quartile of my team ratings. It's hard to know exactly how good they are. But looking at styles of play, Bethel compares pretty well to someone like UW-River Falls (up-tempo, unique formations, great defense), and UWRF fared very well against many of the teams Bethel's likely to play in this quadrant. I expect them to make the quarters.

Riley: Coe. The Kohawks went into the regular season finale at Central in a must-win situation, and found a way to grit out a 13-9 road victory that kept the season alive. Can they do it again as road warriors? I think so. If the defense shows up, as it did throughout ARC play, Coe is capable of remaining in striking distance against plenty of quality opponents, and the Kohawks have an offense with explosive play potential as well. They'll advance to the second round, and I wouldn't be shocked to see them playing a December game before this playoff run concludes.

Carlo: Coe. I think they are one of the most underrated teams in the bracket. Winners of six straight and playing really good defense, this Coe team could make a run starting this Saturday.

Mike: Hope. I’m not sure we will see a true surprise out of this bracket, but Hope has a chance to knock off a team ranked ahead of them in the Top 25 poll. Furthermore, Hope hasn’t beaten a WIAC opponent since 2002, and that is Hope’s only win all time versus any WIAC opponent. When you factor in home field advantage and UWL’s QB injury situation this is an opportunity for Hope to get another shot at NCC.

 

Disappointments

Greg: Hope. The Flying Dutchmen did find themselves with an unexpected home game, but they’ve drawn an immense challenge in UW-La Crosse. The Eagles, notably, have had some health issues behind center and elsewhere as one might expect after going through the WIAC grinder. The week off might be the best thing that could happen for the Eagles, and a rested Eagles team is probably a favorite against Hope.

Patrick: Bethel. The Royals have one challenging game all year, and Platteville has a half-dozen, and Alma had three or four. Who's to say whether Bethel can play at a high level for 60 minutes?

Keith: The bracket is set up to eliminate UW-La Crosse and UW-Platteville in the Round of 16 while they stare clear across at a quadrant they could probably get through to the final four out of.

Logan: UW-La Crosse. The Eagles are in their fifth consecutive playoff field, but in those five playoffs, they've never advanced past the round of 16. Running back Gabe Lynch appears to be healthy now, but their QB situation doesn't inspire confidence against playoff defenses, and they've started 16 different players on defense (seven different defensive backs) this season due to injuries. An extra week of rest should help, but I don't know if they can hold up for a prolonged playoff run.

Riley: Hope, possibly? This has less do with the Flying Dutchmen, and more to do with the matchup they were given. I think UW-La Crosse is underseeded in the NPI when compared with its talent level, and closed WIAC play by winning three of its last four. For that reason, Hope may find itself with an early exit, unable to repeat last year's success with a home playoff win.

Carlo: I hate to say it but I think it’s going to be UW-Platteville. The Pioneers drew Alma in round 2, potentially battling with Coe or Bethel and like my previous take about all roads leading to Alliance, in this quad they lead to Naperville which is not a fun place for visitors to play in recent years.

Mike: UW-La Crosse. The Eagles have been struck by the injury bug as hard as anybody in this tournament. They’ve played two different QBs in the last two games in an attempt to find a reliable fill in for the injured starter Kyle Haas. If Haas is unable to go this has all the earmarkings of a disappointing end to the Eagles season. When fully healthy I believe UWL is a Top 6 team in the country. The good news is maybe the first round bye, allows them the chance to get healthy.

 

Last team standing

Greg: North Central. The Cardinals remain the measure stick that the rest of the division aspires to. This is going to be a physical few rounds that might remind some of North Central’s 2023 path through the playoffs, but the Cardinals are heavy favorites to get back to the final four.

Patrick: North Central. The Cardinals won't lose in those three playoff games, anyway.

Keith: These aren't your Luke Lehnen or Broc Rutter Cardinals. But North Central has been recruiting off its championship pedigree since 2019, and prioritizing offensive line for much longer. Depth and strength in the trenches usually separates the wheat from the chaff on the Road to the Stagg Bowl.

Logan: North Central. I have seen nothing this season to make me think North Central is anything but the runaway national title favorite. Their offense with Garret Wilson at the helm is potentially more efficient than it ever was under Lehnen, and the defense is allowing less than 7 points per game. If they stay healthy, this tournament is theirs to lose.

Riley: North Central. I haven't seen anything this season that would make me think otherwise. The Cardinals dominated their regular season competition, including a pair of ranked opponents, and the fact that they aren't reliant on one side of the ball to get the job done makes them that much more dangerous. NCC's offense averages a nation-leading 54.2 points per game, while the defense gives up just 6.6.

Carlo: North Central. This team is on a mission to not only be in their 6th straight national championship game, but they are looking to win their fourth title in those six appearances and go back-to-back for the first time.

Mike: North Central. What more needs to be said about this team? They’re among the very best in the country on offense and defense, and no one has challenged NCC all year for more than 30 minutes. I believe there’s a few teams in this quadrant that will at least change that.

 

WARTBURG BRACKET

Surprises

Greg: Wheaton. The Thunder have lost only to North Central and Mount Union this season and have obliterated everyone else. Now, there’s a gap between those two and everyone else, but the Thunder are very, very good. A second round matchup with Wartburg could be the game of the round, and I’ll not be surprised if Wheaton makes a run from the first round to the quarterfinal.

Patrick: DePauw. The Tigers have played a pretty good schedule and haven't given up much. If DePauw can keep from getting intimidated in heading to play a multiple-time national champion program on the road, then it has a shot.

Keith: We're still new to having a Round of 40, and maybe 8-2 teams from power conferences belong in the first-week games. But Wheaton could be a sneaky threat because its losses are against the Nos. 1 and 2 teams in the poll, in which it allowed 36 points per game. Against everyone else, it allowed a shade over 13. The Thunder could find itself in a Round of 32 slugfest at Wartburg, and might be tested enough to withstand it.

Logan: Monmouth. The Scots have been red hot since a season-opening loss to Wartburg, winning their last nine games by an average of fifty (50!) points per game. Their round 2 opponent, St. John's has only played one team this season anywhere near as good as Monmouth (they did not win that game). If St. John's walks into this game expecting an easy win against a typical Midwest Conference champion, they're going to find themselves in a dogfight in the fourth quarter that Monmouth is more than capable of winning.

Riley: Chapman. In five trips to the playoffs, Chapman has won a game only once. I think that changes in the West Coast first-round duel between the Panthers and Whitworth. Chapman may be the underdog, but will surprise us with a win behind a strong defensive showing, shutting down Whitworth's run game as they did against a multitude of SCIAC opponents over the last several weeks. It will be the SCIAC's first playoff win since Chapman themselves beat Linfield in 2019.

Carlo: Wheaton is battle-tested with two losses to the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams. They don’t seem to have much trouble in the CCIW otherwise. Wheaton is hungry to prove that the CCIW is more than just NCC.

Mike: DePauw. This is me taking a flyer on an underdog here. UW-Whitewater hasn’t exactly been sharp on offense with any level of consistency this season. And DePauw has one of the nations top run defenses to challenge UWW’s physical run game. Which leaves plenty of room to believe they could stifle the Warhawks run game and only need a few scores from their high powered offense to pull out a low scoring affair at The Perk. I’m not in love with this take, but nor did I love the idea of 2022 Aurora over Whitewater ...

 

Disappointments

Greg: Wartburg. Just an absolutely brutal draw for Wartburg. As the top seed in the region, one expects the Knights to get to the semifinals, but this road to the final four is loaded with one land mine after another and perhaps one too many for the Knights.

Patrick: UW-River Falls and Wartburg playing in the quarterfinals. This shouldn't happen. Also, why did No. 1 seed Wartburg not get the winner of the 8-9 game? This bracket doesn't make a ton of sense.

Keith: DePauw at UW-Whitewater could be the best game in the Round of 32, and its winner will likely get a trip to Wartburg to face a Knights defense that gave up 11 touchdowns in 10 games. If not that, it'll be Wheaton. Nobody said the road through a 40-team playoff would be easy!

Logan: Whitworth. The Northwest Conference used to consistently produce national title contenders. Since 2020, representatives from the conference have only won one game against anybody other than the SCIAC or SCAC representative (Linfield over SJU in 2021), and their losses have been by an average of 20 points. If Whitworth's first game was in Southern California instead of Spokane, Chapman would be favored, and I think it's perfectly fair to expect Chapman to get the W on the road.

Riley: UW-Whitewater. I don't see any big letdowns happening in this quadrant, but I do think the Warhawks failing to advance out of a second-round home game might fall under that umbrella. UWW has found so much success this season with RB Brian Stanton, but if there's one defense that has the personnel to equalize the Warhawk O-Line's strength, it's DePauw's defensive front. The Tigers allow 0.5 yards per carry, and if UWW is held to a similar average, even the home field advantage may not be enough to lift the Warhawks to a win.

Carlo: I think it’s Wartburg and my reason is I feel it has to be the finals or bust. This is a damn good football team but potential battles lie ahead with Wheaton, UW-Whitewater, DePauw, Saint John's, and UW-River Falls. Definitely a tough quad to be in!

Mike: St. John’s. Even if SJU gets past Monmouth, their reward will be a trip to Ramer Field, a place where recent Top 10 teams have lost by a combined score of 93-21 at the hands of the Falcons. SJU is already 0-1 versus Top 10 opponents and UWRF poses many of the same challenges schematically that Bethel did for SJU earlier this season.

 

Last team standing

Greg: UW-River Falls. It feels like this is the time for UW-River Falls. In Kaleb Blaha, they’ve got the best player on the field in this quadrant running an offense that is nearly impossible to keep up with. The Falcon defense has matured into a strong group that kept both UW-Whitewater and UW-La Crosse pinned down recently. All of the pieces are firing for River Falls and it would be a shock to not see River Falls still going into late December.

Patrick: Wartburg. Probably solely based on the home field. I trust playoff veteran Wartburg at home more than UW-River Falls on the road.

Keith: I'm on the record with UW-River Falls as a semifinalist from our preseason 20 questions, and I see no reason to change course now. There was an early-October stumble in Oshkosh. But Kaleb Blaha and the Falcons have beaten a whopping FIVE other teams in the playoff field, by 12, 12, 10, 38 and 34 points. This is a national-championship contender.

Logan: UW-River Falls. My heart wants to pick Wartburg, but the Knights have an absolutely brutal draw. By my numbers, Wartburg has easily the toughest path to the semifinals for any one seed since at least 1999. UW-River Falls, alternatively, gets the more favorable second-round matchup (both by seeding and my predictive metrics) and an easier potential matchup in the round of 16 (UWW and DePauw rank No. 4 and No. 16 in my model; SJU and Monmouth rank No. 9 and No. 27).

Riley: UW-River Falls. In Kaleb Blaha's final year, everything has come together for the Falcons. The offense has been sharper than ever, able to outscore almost everyone in WIAC play, and they've got a hard-nosed run defense to go along with it. I believe this is the year that we finally get a WIAC team back in the semifinals, continuing UWRF's historic campaign.

Carlo: UW-River Falls.

Mike: Wartburg. I’m putting my faith in two factors with this pick, winning in Waverly, Iowa, is one of the hardest tasks in all of D3 football, and the Wartburg defense will win the day. The old slogan “defense wins championships” is true, and few teams showcase that better than the Knights. This defense is not fancy, exotic, or full of disguises; it just punishes opponents for 4 quarters by crushing the front and playing a lot of zone behind it.

 

CHRISTOPHER NEWPORT BRACKET

Surprises

Greg: Washington & Jefferson. A pair of opening season losses and an underwhelming non-conference record from the PAC overall has W&J as the 38th ranked team in this field by NPI. But NPI doesn’t really inform us who should win games, and the Presidents have a series of matchups that aren’t just winnable- but that they could be considered favorites in.

Patrick: Susquehan & Jefferson. I don't know who wins this first round game, but it should be a doozy and I like the winner in the second round.

Keith: This bracket is filled with potential surprises, including an 8-2 Cortland program two years removed from a national championship and an 8-2 Susquehanna that was a semifinalist last season, both playing in the Round of 40. But my potential surprise is Endicott, which got a tough draw traveling to Salisbury, but has also in recent years beaten national-caliber programs such as Hardin-Simmons and had Cortland on the ropes during the Red Dragons' championship run.

Logan: Washington & Jefferson. If I had to pick one unranked team to make the semifinals, I think it would be W&J. The Presidents started slow this season, but they've risen to No. 18 in my predictive ratings after running roughshod through their PAC schedule. They have the pieces needed to make a run - a QB with nearly 3,000 yards on the season, two All-Region or All-American caliber receivers, and a defense that's coming together at the perfect time.

Riley: Susquehanna. I get it, the River Hawks dropped back-to-back games to Johns Hopkins and Christopher Newport and slid their way entirely out of the Top 25 for a bit. But Susquehanna was one of the preseason favorites to make a deep playoff run because of its personnel, and those key playmakers -- notably QB Josh Ehrlich and RB Rahshan La Mons -- haven't gone anywhere. For that reason alone, I think Susquehanna might be the most underrated team in this entire field, capable of winning multiple games.

Carlo: Christopher Newport stays on track like they have all season. They have to meet up with potentially W&J or a rematch with Susquehanna, then the Centennial Champ F&M. Tough sledding, but I really think this Captains team is built for a run.

Mike: Franklin & Marshall. This team just finds ways to win. A last minute defensive stand earned a 1 score win vs Gettysburg. A one point win over Muhlenberg was secured on defensive stand on a go ahead 2-point attempt with 38 seconds left. Against Dickinson the Diplomats hit a walk off field goal to win it. Lastly, to win the Centennial Conference the Diplomats erased a 21 point JHU lead to win the game in overtime on a walk-off 2-point conversion. The Diplomats just win.

 

Disappointments

Greg: Christopher Newport. There’s not a lot of room to go from the top seed in a region but down, but for the Captains, the path to a regional championship is tricky. They’ll start with either a returning semifinalist or a team that’s been on fire for the last two months followed by what could be a 1-2 punch of Centennial Conference leaders, or perhaps a tricky rematch with NJAC rival Salisbury.

Patrick: Christopher Newport. See above. I don't know that Susquehanna lets the road at CNU get to them if they get the rematch, and if it's W&J, that's a team that is playing way better than it was at the beginning of the year.

Keith: Christopher Newport had an amazing run to get to 10-0 and a one seed. But the Captains also had to win three one-score games in which they allowed more than 40 points. You are free to interpret that as "battle tested" but I'm going with "ripe for a playoff upset."

Logan: Franklin & Marshall. The Dips won the Centennial Conference, arguably the second-best conference in the country. They made their first playoff ever. They beat Johns Hopkins! But digging deeper, they've also won 5 games by a single score, including a 35-28 win against a one-win Gettysburg that was every bit as close as the score suggests. They got an extremely favorable draw in their first game, but their run likely ends at the hands of whoever makes it out of the Susquehanna/W&J/CNU trio.

Riley: Christopher Newport. The Captains put together one of their best regular seasons in history, proving they can beat top-caliber teams. But I think the setup of this section of the bracket could lend itself to an early exit for CNU, even as the quadrant's top seed. W&J, Susquehanna, and Franklin & Marshall each have fine-tuned passing attacks with senior quarterbacks leading the way. And what has CNU struggled with at times defensively? Containing the big plays through the air. I think that could be the difference in keeping CNU out of a quarterfinal.

Carlo: Salisbury. Similar to Wartburg I think Salisbury came into to 2025 in a championship or bust mentality and I just don’t see the path for them out of this quad.

Mike: Christopher Newport. CNU has played three playoff caliber quality opponents this year in Susquehanna, Rowan, and Salisbury. While they're 3-0 in those games they’re allowing an average of 37 points per game to those opponents. In a game against Montclair St they also allowed 42 pts. In the playoffs it is hard to win if you’re trying to out score teams and win 45-42 type of contests. The Captains will run into several defenses in this tournament that simply won’t allow them to drop 42-plus points, they will need more from their defense as the level of competition increases.

 

Last team standing

Greg: Johns Hopkins. The Blue Jays got pipped at the line by Franklin & Marshall in the grueling race for the Centennial Conference championship, but make no mistake- the Blue Jays remain the favorites to advance through this bracket and make a return trip to the semifinals.

Patrick: Johns Hopkins. That loss to F&M looks exactly like the spark that sometimes a team might need before the playoffs. Usually that's more of a basketball thing, but it's November so I'm applying hoops to football.

Keith: Johns Hopkins. Don't let the final-week one-point loss to Franklin & Marshall fool you. Bay Harvey and the Blue Jays are capable of emerging from this quadrant.

Logan: Johns Hopkins. The Blue Jays have played two bad halves of football this season - the first half against CMU and the second half against F&M. Outside of those 60 minutes, Johns Hopkins has looked like a national title contender. They have four wins over teams who finished 8-2 or better this season, and they won those games by an average score of 39-19. There are plenty of teams capable of giving JHU the same sort of game F&M did (including F&M), but Hopkins is the safe bet.

Riley: Johns Hopkins. The Blue Jays' loss to Franklin & Marshall on the final day of the regular season doesn't change much for me. If anything, I think we should expect a more determined, locked-in JHU team than we got in the regular season. And if that's the case, I'm not sure anybody will be able to slow down this group en route to a trip to the semifinals.

Carlo: Johns Hopkins will be spitting venom coming into the dance. There are a lot of questions around JHU following the one point loss in overtime to F&M. I think the players and coaches down there in Baltimore are going to work through this quad with a chip on their shoulders!

Mike: Johns Hopkins. Suffering that heart breaking loss to F&M may end up being just what JHU needed to light a fire underneath an already ultra talented squad. This team has deep playoff experience and with a QB/WR duo Bay Harvey and Cole Crotty I have a hard time betting against this squad. The Blue Jays are a title contender.

 

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