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Snap Judgments: Merry Clinchmas

More news about: Olivet | Redlands
The Bulldogs are back in the playoffs, but are not looking past their Week 11 opponent.
Redlands athletics photo 

Northwestern (Minn.) is making its first playoff appearance. With wins on Saturday, Rose-Hulman and Stevenson will earn their first playoff berths.

Then there are programs like Redlands, who have been to the playoffs but are back after a hiatus.

The Bulldogs, coming off of the program's first losing season in a decade, turned things around and are back in the postseason for the first time since 2013.

"It's always an ambition and one of the long-term goals of every senior class to make it to the playoffs. Being in the playoffs and being part of the dance is a great experience for our young people. But we haven't really talked about it," said Bulldogs coach Mike Maynard. "We have a big rivalry game with Cal Lutheran next week. It's cliche, but we really do try to play one game at a time and if we start thinking too much about a game ahead of time, it could be a problem."

Three of the team's five losses in 2015 were by single digits. This year, Redlands has more depth which has helped the Bulldogs close out games in the second half. After a season-opening non-conference loss at Trinity (Texas), Redlands has reeled off seven straight wins. They've won three of those by single digits, evidence of the maturity that began in the offseason and has led the Bulldogs back to the postseason.

"Mental toughness says that we'll find a way to win. Often times in the second half, that's been a factor for our team this year," said Maynard. "Having gone through what we did last year and the disappointments, I think there was a much greater resolve in our offseason conditioning, a much greater resolve when we camp to camp, and I think that resolve continues."

Who's in

Eleven teams joined Coe as postseason clinchers on Saturday.

Here's who's in so far, along with the prognosticated conference winner from Kickoff.

Conference Pool A bid Kickoff prediction
ECFC Husson Husson
UMAC Northwestern (Minn.) St. Scholastica
MIAC St. Thomas St. Thomas
Centennial Johns Hopkins Johns Hopkins
MIAA Olivet winner of three-way tiebreaker
NEFC Western New England Salve Regina
MASCAC Bridgewater State Fitchburg State
CCIW North Central North Central
IIAC Coe Dubuque
NWC Linfield Linfield
WIAC UW-Whitewater UW-Oshkosh
SCIAC Redlands Claremont-Mudd-Scripps

Eight conferences have a frontrunner who just needs to avoid an upset in the regular season finale to get in.

NCAC: Wittenberg with a win at Allegheny

NJAC: Wesley with a win against William Paterson

LL: Hobart with a win against Rochester

MAC: Stevenson with a win at Lycoming

HCAC: Rose-Hulman with a win against Earlham

MWC: Monmouth with a win at Knox

ODAC: Randolph-Macon with a win at Hampden-Sydney

USA South: Huntingdon with a win at Averett

These teams will all be heavy favorites to win in Week 11 and advance to the postseason, atoning for their earlier regular season stumbles. The most unpredictable games are probably the two from the Mid-Atlantic region. Randolph-Macon controls its destiny in the ODAC, but nothing is ever a given when The Game against Hampden-Sydney is on deck. Huntingdon's win over Maryville yesterday put the Hawks in the USA South driver's seat. Huntingdon needs to win at Averett to clinch the conference title for the second year in a row, but Averett has been a resurgent team this season. The MAC is no given, either. Stevenson will need to bounce back after suffering its first loss of the season, to previously 2-6 Wilkes. Lycoming is having a down year at 3-6, but four of the Warriors' six conference losses have been by single digits (as were both their MAC wins). How will Stevenson handle playing with the pressure of the program's first playoff berth hanging in the balance?

Playoffs start one week early in the OAC and Empire 8, two conferences that will be decided in head-to-head battles on Nov. 12. Mount Union and John Carroll have defeated all comers in OAC play so far. A season-opening loss to UW-Oshkosh puts the Blue Streaks in a precarious position. A loss to the Purple Raiders will place John Carroll on the playoff bubble, hoping that the committee recognizes the quality of a two-loss team whose only losses were on the road against top five opponents.

Alfred avoided becoming Utica's next upset victim and the Saxons remain in control of the Empire 8. They have to defeat St. John Fisher in the finale to earn the automatic bid. The Cardinals lost to Utica earlier this year, but a win would give St. John Fisher the title by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker over Alfred.

Then, we have chaos conferences. The NACC and SAA are far from decided, as each conference features a three-way tie at the top heading into Week 11. In the SAA, Centre, Berry, and Wash. U are tied heading into Week 11. The Colonels and Vikings play one another. The Bears play Chicago. If Wash U. wins, there will be a head-to-head tiebreaker: the Bears hold the edge over Berry, but not Centre. If Chicago pulls the upset. The winner of Centre-Berry is in.

In the NACC, Lakeland, Aurora, and Benedictine are tied heading into Week 11. This one's more simple. The Muskies hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over both the Spartans and Eagles. If Lakeland takes care of business against Rockford, the Muskies will clinch. Aurora plays Benedictine on Saturday, so there can only be two teams tied atop the conference standings at most. If Lakeland loses, the Aurora-Benedictine winner is in.

Thomas More's regular season is over, but the Saints will not officially clinch until the PAC tiebreaker with Case Western Reserve is calculated following Saturday's games. The Saints could also clinch if the Spartans fall to Carnegie Mellon in their finale.

This won't be official until Selection Sunday, but Mary Hardin-Baylor should be a no-brainer for the lone Pool B bid. The Crusaders close the regular season with Louisiana College.

Too much can happen between now and next Sunday to start breaking down the six Pool C bids. There are at least ten teams that can state a case for those six at-large spots. There should be more clarity for the committee after the conclusion of Week 11's games.

One last chance

Martin Luther wrapped up a 0-10 season, and the Knights will enter 2017 on a 14-game losing streak.

These winless teams enter the season finale hoping to send their seniors out on a high note and gain some much-needed momentum headed into the offseason. Here are their final shots in 2016, ranked in order of likelihood of pulling an upset.

It could happen

Morrisville State, vs. Alfred State (1-8)
Whittier, vs. La Verne (1-7)
Howard Payne, vs. Belhaven (1-8)
Bowdoin, at Colby (2-5)
Oberlin, at Hiram (2-7)
Anna Maria, at Becker (2-7)

So you're saying there's a chance

Misericordia, vs. FDU-Florham (2-7)
Grove City, vs. Thiel (3-6)
Wilmington, vs. Muskingum (3-6)
Grinnell, vs. Cornell (4-5)
Williams, at Amherst (3-4)

Wait til next year

Lewis & Clark, vs. Whitworth (7-2)
Sewanee, at Hendrix (6-3)
Earlham, at Rose-Hulman (8-1)
Carroll, at No. 12 Wheaton (8-1)

These teams have hope. Olivet won just two games over five seasons from 2008 through 2012. That stretch included three winless seasons. The Comets emerged to post winning seasons each of the past four years. Last year, they shared the MIAA title but lost the automatic bid on a tiebreaker. This year, the Comets are in the postseason, clinching the MIAA bid on Saturday. Olivet completed the turnaround from 0-10 to playoffs in four years. There's no reason the teams above can't do the same.

On tap:

Here's what to watch for on D3football.com this week.

Later today-- new Top 25 poll released

Monday--Around the Nation podcast featuring Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan. Also, Play of the Week. Submit nominations today if you haven't already.

Tuesday/Wednesday--Around the Region columns

Thursday--Around the Nation column.

Friday--Quick Hits (the new, improved version of Triple Take featuring our panel's predictions and insight into the weekend's games).

Saturday--Game day. You know what Saturdays are for.

Selection Sunday!

We've got great content coming at you all week, every week. Follow along and get to know D-III football beyond just your favorite team.

If you have ideas for an upcoming column or just want to talk some D-III football, get at me at @adamturer on Twitter or adam.turer@d3sports.com.

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Greg Thomas

Greg Thomas graduated in 2000 from Wabash College. He has contributed to D3football.com since 2014 as a bracketologist, Kickoff writer, curator of Quick Hits, and Around The Nation Podcast guest host before taking co-host duties over in 2021. Greg lives in Claremont, California.

Previous columnists: 2016-2019: Adam Turer.
2014-2015: Ryan Tipps.
2001-2013: Keith McMillan.

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