/columns/around-the-nation/2015/snap-judgments-week-6

Snap judgments: What we're learning

Vincenzo Ferraro and the Saints of St. Lawrence have proven worthy of continued attention.
St. Lawrence athletics photo by Tara Freeman
 

Deep into the fourth quarter, the UW-Oshkosh announcers called it an instant classic. It certainly was, and now 21 voters in the Top 25 poll are left in search of a new team to crown as their front-runner.

UW-Whitewater, the defending national champion, is mortal. I confess that this wasn’t the game I expected to put a black mark on Whitewater’s 2015 record. Maybe Morningside; maybe Platteville. But Oshkosh didn’t seem like it was building up to this game in the same way, not with Finlandia, North Park and Stout over the past few weeks.

It’s not that I felt Oshkosh wasn’t a good team (they’ve been a contender in the nation’s most competitive conference for several years now); there was no skepticism and no reason to question their performance. Rather, I wanted it to be proven to me.

As we get into the middle part of the season, I’m not always comfortable with teams in the Top 25 riding on the coattails of a previous year’s playoff run or off of traditional of excellence on the field. I want to see it. I want the results to proclaim it. I want to say that I am confident in that team because it saw a challenge, stared it in the eyes and overcame it.

Until Saturday, Oshkosh hadn’t met those requirements. By the time Saturday evening rolled around, they hadn’t just met them – the Titans had surpassed them.

On the field, Oshkosh matched up in size with the notoriously ferocious Whitewater lines. Especially late in the game, even though Whitewater made some spectacular plays to keep themselves alive and driving for points, the Titans answered. The field goal attempt by the Warhawks kicker is perhaps the most striking example of Oshkosh determination to make victory happen. That blocked kick, with just two minutes left in the game, was the nail in the Whitewater coffin.

UW-Whitewater isn’t going to drop far on my ballot, not with a three-point game that could have gone either direction in the final period. Whitewater has two great wins this season, which is something few Top 25 teams can boast.

Oshkosh on the other hand will, of course, take a big jump in the polls -- I’d project Top 5. Linfield and Mount Union will probably absorb most of the first-place votes that Whitewater was getting, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple of voters gave the Titans the top spot since they have no Division III losses this year and beat Whitewater.

After all, it was the brass ring that Oshkosh has gone after for the past two seasons -- one that has now been reached.

How many other teams are coming closer than they have in years to getting their brass ring as well? DePauw is among the most notable.

The Tigers spent a handful of recent seasons mired in mediocrity – as well as having five coaching changes since the esteemed Nick Mourouzis retired after the 2003 season. The team’s move to the NCAC after a long stint in the SCAC was hailed as a boost for the North Coast, one that would bring a competitor into the mix to help raise the level play in the conference from top to bottom.

The debut 2-8 NCAC season, followed by a 4-6 outing, didn’t bear that out.

But DePauw has declared not just its intention but also its ability to compete for a conference title after beating No. 20 Wittenberg 35-30 on Saturday.

DePauw has arrived. They are undefeated this season, winning games by the kinds of margins they should be putting up as a team that hopes to catch the eye of a national audience. As of last week, DePauw wasn’t getting Top 25 votes, but I’d be surprised if that wasn’t the case when the new poll is released tonight.

Other Top 25 losses

Whitewater and Wittenberg certainly weren’t the only teams in the poll to fall. Cortland State’s loss to Buffalo State continues to add all kinds of fuzziness to the Empire 8 picture. No one in that conference is perfect, and there are several tied at the top with one conference loss while ones with more than one loss are also proving they can be a threat. Close your eyes and throw a dart at a board of E8 teams. You’ll have just as much luck as the rest of us in picking the conference’s playoff representative.

As was discussed in Friday’s Triple Take, the Salisbury win over No. 14 Rowan wasn’t shocking considering that the Gulls’ only loss was to Albright, which is undefeated at the top of the MAC. Springfield knocking off No. 22 Hobart isn’t too far off the radar either as the Statesmen are looking rekindle the kind of play that’s been elusive since last season.

Berry’s overtime upending of No. 24 Chicago is impressive. The Vikings, like Hendrix discussed in this space last week, are only in their third season of football, but in the SAA, they’re showing that the top slots are up for grabs. Chicago was in its first week on the Top 25 poll thanks to besting Centre a couple of weeks ago, but that stint was short-lived. Like the Empire 8, there are several teams that could take the SAA by the horns down the stretch and earn the automatic playoff bid.

Revisiting my ‘teams to watch’

In this space three weeks ago, I talked about three teams that could be charging ahead and making a mark for themselves this season – with an addendum of a fourth team added to that list in a follow-up column. Think of this as a “where are they now?”

  • Albion: A school-record six touchdown passes lifted the Britons to a hefty 72-40 win this weekend. The team is still undefeated at 5-0, but has the MIAA's three other best teams on the schedule over the next three weekends. By Nov. 1, we’ll know more.
  • Cal Lutheran: The Kingsmen have had some up and down play, with big shifts in momentum coming late in their games. After starting 3-0, the team dropped its first game on Saturday, a 13-10 outing against Redlands. Cal Lutheran has to hope for the chips to fall their way as the season progresses, but the SCIAC has no clear front-runner, so it’s worth keeping an eye on developments.
  • St. Lawrence: With Hobart dropping a conference game (and its second game overall this season), the Liberty League seems more up for grabs than ever. However, next week St. Lawrence plays the very team that beat Hobart on Saturday, not to mention Hobart itself is still on the Saints’ docket for the first weekend in November. St. Lawrence has no room to breathe easy over the next few weeks.
  • Albright: This was my honorable mention team that I added in a subsequent column to my “watch list” and for good reason. They’re another 5-0 team, but their best wins came in the first two weeks of play against Salisbury and Widener. They’re certainly not out of the woods yet.

Two other things on my mind

Washington and Lee’s win over Hampden-Sydney lends further credibility to their place at the top of the ODAC. While Emory and Henry meted out the conference muscle of its own against Bridgewater, the showdown between these two teams on Oct. 31 is looking more and more enticing.

Western New England’s win over Springfield in Week 1 is looking all that much prettier now that Springfield has beaten Hobart. The NEFC can get overlooked, but any team that ultimately goes 10-0 deserves to be talked about. Still, the Golden Bears have some tough games still to come.

Beyond the Top 25

I’ve talked in recent columns about my bubble teams for the Top 25. This is hard to parse out, because some teams that are on my radar are teams that the overall poll already has listed -- and I haven’t seen the overall poll that includes Week 6 games yet.

So maybe it’s not a perfect list of teams on my bubble, but the ones that are just off my ballot and can play their way in on any given Saturday are:

Concordia-Moorhead: Yes, this team is on the overall Top 25 as of Week 5, but a three-point win after a big fourth-quarter Carleton rally hasn’t inspired confidence in the team (at least not from me). Their Bethel win earlier in the season was important, but Carleton has a mere 1-5 record. I am paying attention to how they’re playing, though.

Texas Lutheran: I dropped TLU from my ballot earlier this year after the loss to Hardin-Simmons, but HSU’s continued strong performance, as well as that of TLU, makes the Bulldogs a contender to get back in.

Ohio Northern: The Polar Bears got thumped by Mount this week, and they had an ugly conference loss earlier this season, but that’s not unusual for the OAC’s No. 2 or No. 3 team. I say “or” because I would put ONU ahead of John Carroll based on head-to-head results, and if I’m admitting to not having ONU on my ballot yet, you can infer that I don’t have JCU on either.

Gettysburg: Like other teams, I haven’t pulled the trigger on putting the Bullets on my ballot because they haven’t played stiff competition yet. The meat of their schedule is still to come, and we’ll know whether they’re worthy after a couple of more weeks of play. Illinois Wesleyan fits this bill, too.

Berry and Hendrix: It’s possible, after the loss of Chicago, voters will be looking at who out of the SAA could get the AQ. Berry and Hendrix are at the top of the conference for the moment, so we could see some votes going their way soon. For me, they’re still behind several other teams, but it’s possible if they win out that they could edge their way onto my ballot.

Beyond this, there are tons of one-loss teams (and even some undefeated teams) that come in behind these, in my opinion. There is still a lot of time to see how the season shakes out.

Worth noting, too, is that my 21 to 25 spots on my ballot are pretty heavily in flux, and teams ebb and flow off the list pretty regularly week to week.

Weekend recap, columns, tweets and more

For the facts and figures of this weekend in football, check out D3football.com’s Top 25 recap and the national roundup.

There will be a handful of opportunities each week for me to showcase what’s going on nationally in Division III. On:

  • Sundays, look for my reaction and recap of Saturday’s games in Snap Judgments;
  • Thursdays, see my centerpiece feature story of the week;
  • Fridays, read our Triple Take prediction column, where Pat, Keith and I give you some things to look out for in the following day’s games, including the top matchups and upset possibilities.

Between all that will be D3football.com’s regional columns, the ATN podcast, and the team of the week, among other things. Don’t go too far!

Follow me on Twitter at @NewsTipps, as well as D3football.com’s main account, @d3football.

(Also, if you are tweeting about Division III football, don't forget to use the #d3fb hashtag.)

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Greg Thomas

Greg Thomas graduated in 2000 from Wabash College. He has contributed to D3football.com since 2014 as a bracketologist, Kickoff writer, curator of Quick Hits, and Around The Nation Podcast guest host before taking co-host duties over in 2021. Greg lives in Claremont, California.

Previous columnists: 2016-2019: Adam Turer.
2014-2015: Ryan Tipps.
2001-2013: Keith McMillan.

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