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Snap judgments: Where's the dropoff in Division III?

Nathan Nigolian had two touchdown catches and a career high in yards, but the Cardinals had a hard time keeping Salisbury down.
St. John Fisher athletics photo 

The debate is at least as old as the expanded 32-team playoffs: Whether Division III’s elite will consistently grow to compete with the ultra-elite.

In the realm of ultra-elite, four teams come to mind. They are UW-Whitewater, Mount Union, Mary Hardin-Baylor and Wesley. By no means are these teams untouchable, but they have surely created a standard over the years by which every other team with deep playoff goals should aspire.

The nagging question hasn’t been whether there’s a dropoff after those four but rather how deep the dropoff is. After seeing Salisbury, which lost 43-5 to Wesley in Week 2, topple No. 7 St. John Fisher in overtime on Saturday, it’s natural to think that the hill is still very steep for the Fishers, North Centrals, Linfields and Bethels of the nation.

Last year, we saw a Stagg Bowl visit barely slip through the fingers of North Central. Other senior-laden teams over the years have looked good for Salem as well, only to fall short. Even 2012 Stagg runner-up St. Thomas got there without having to go through any of the ultra-elites. UW-W had an uncharacteristic down year and didn’t make the postseason, while eventual winner Mount Union as well as UMHB and Wesley were all on the opposite side of the bracket. (Of the ultra-elites, only Wesley hasn’t made it to the Stagg Bowl in the past decade, but that’s not for lack of quality or competitiveness.)

To the die-hard D-III fan, you’ve already heard the podcasts, read the Kickoff stories and seen the Stagg Bowl write-ups and know the stratosphere in which the handful of the top teams play. Common opponent analysis (whether we’re using Salisbury or another team) is the way we gauge well before the playoffs where these elite and ultra-elite teams stand.

It’s particularly effective in the Salisbury situation because the Gulls are quite familiar with both teams – they’ve long played the Route 13 rivalry game against Wesley and they’re in their fourth season in the E8 playing against Fisher. Nobody can say that Salisbury’s triple-option offense caught the opponent off-guard, skewing the legitimacy of the comparison. Rather, what we have is our best indicator to date that the elites are still elite, and the ultra-elite are still ultra-dominating.

First-time victors: Berry surged in the second half to push overtime against Washington U., ultimately needing just one play in overtime to connect on a 25-yard game-winning pass. The Vikings 29-23 victory was the first since the program was built in 2013 and was helped by a stellar 374-yard, three-score performance from Berry quarterback Dale Jackson. What’s more is that Berry played a bit of a spoiler to a historic moment at Washington U.: The Bears were celebrating their 1,000th game in program history.

Wash U. wasn’t the first team this year to reach that mark and won’t be the last. Illinois Wesleyan reached it on the road in Week 2, earning a 35-28 win at Albion.

Matchups better or worse than expected:

  • Worse: No. 5 Linfield drubbed No. 14 Pacific Lutheran 41-14 in a game I had expected would be closer to the one-score battles we’ve seen in many years past.
  • Better: For the second week in a row, Ohio Northern gave a big scare to a top OAC opponent. Containing John Carroll’s offense so well was an impressive feat by the Polar Bears. I never had last week’s ONU opponent, Heidelberg, on my Top 25 ballot this season, so the fact that that game was so close wasn’t particularly surprising to me. JCU is high on my list (No. 8 last week; I haven’t filled out my ballot yet this week), so ONU’s performance stands out all that much more this go-around.
  • Better: UW-Stevens Point clearly put itself on the map with the North Central win last week, so it would be easy to expect the Pointers to roll this week against a River Falls team that has yet to beat a Division III opponent.  That certainly wasn’t the case, and has me thinking hard again about the WIAC top to bottom. (Speaking of which, coming up later this week will be my re-ranking of the conferences. Pat Coleman and Keith McMillian ranked them in the preseason for Kickoff, so now it’s my turn to take what we’ve learned in these first few weeks and see where they stand.)

New to the poll: Though this is being written before the poll comes out, it’s with almost certainty that we’ll be seeing a new name in there this week: Washington and Jefferson. And enormous 500-plus-yard performance by the Presidents, including Pete Coughlin’s six passing touchdowns, over No. 20 Thomas More will surely result in the Saints dropping out and W&J taking their place – perhaps even at No. 20.

Getting his kicks: The guy with one of the most unfamiliar names to Wesley football fans went a perfect 8-for-8 in PATs against Louisiana College. Why wouldn’t folks have heard of Eric Speidel before now? Well, Saturday marked the first football game the sophomore ever played in, counting high school and college. He is a third baseman for the Wolverines baseball team and was a ball boy just two weekends ago. To top off his PAT perfection, he also had a touchdown-saving tackle on a kickoff.

Honorably mentioned: Emory and Henry hasn’t had a 4-0 start since 2010, but something on Saturday made the 38-28 win over Randolph-Macon a little bit sweeter. E&H’s football tradition stood tall as the school honored its legendary coach by unveiling the Lou Wacker Grandstand prior to the game. Wacker coached the Wasps from 1982 to 2004 and was inducted into the Virginia Sports Hall of Fame and Museum this year.

Tweets, et al.: There will be a handful of opportunities each week for me to showcase what’s going on nationally in Division III. On:

Sundays, look for my reaction and recap of Saturday’s games in Snap Judgments;

Thursdays, see my centerpiece feature story of the week;

Fridays, read our Triple Take prediction column, where Pat, Keith and I give you some things to look out for in the following day’s games, including the top matchups and upset possibilities.

Between all that will be D3football.com’s regional columns, the ATN podcast, and the team of the week, among other things. Don’t go too far!

(Also, if you are tweeting about Division III football, don't forget to use the #d3fb hashtag.)

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Greg Thomas

Greg Thomas graduated in 2000 from Wabash College. He has contributed to D3football.com since 2014 as a bracketologist, Kickoff writer, curator of Quick Hits, and Around The Nation Podcast guest host before taking co-host duties over in 2021. Greg lives in Claremont, California.

Previous columnists: 2016-2019: Adam Turer.
2014-2015: Ryan Tipps.
2001-2013: Keith McMillan.

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