/columns/around-the-nation/2005/a-look-around-the-playoff-races

A look around the playoff races

As mentioned last week, most of you probably focus your attention on one team each Saturday. Perhaps you have time to follow its opponents, or the conference standings, but wrapping your mind around all 231 teams is too much to even think about.

That’s precisely what Around the Nation is for. When the curious among you start wondering if that team you kinda-sorta heard of is as good as their record would have you believe, or when you start projecting who your team might face in the playoffs, then here is where you need to be.

Normally, I’d think nothing of bombarding you with a look at all 26 conferences we recognize, plus independents. But this year, I thought I’d expand our capsule look at each group to include an inside opinion, where possible, on how things will play out. I’m also adding a suspense rating, so we’ll know that the conferences with a 1 are pretty much over already, while those with a 5 have a lot left to sort out.

Don’t worry, we’ll still list contenders, predict a winner and tell you how many playoff spots to expect.

Since this project each year has been the least-cool reason to see the sun rise, I’m splitting it into three groups of nine each. It’ll take a little longer this way, but I think you’ll get more out of it than ever before. And just to prove I’m not splitting them up to avoid making a call on tough-to-figure conferences, I’ll do it alphabetically … but backwards, beginning with the WIAC.

The schedule:
Oct. 12: WIAC, USAC, UAA, SCIAC, SCAC, PAC, ODAC, OAC, NWC
Oct. 19: NJAC, NESCAC, NEFC (Boyd and Bogan), NCAC, MWC, MIAC, MIAA, MAC, Liberty
Oct. 26: Independents, IIAC, IBFC, HCAC, Empire 8, CCIW, Centennial, ASC, ACFC

WISCONSIN INTERCOLLEGIATE ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (WIAC)
Suspense rating:
 4
Contender(s): No. 7 UW-Whitewater, No. 10 UW-La Crosse, UW-Oshkosh, UW-Stout
Probable playoff spots: One via Pool A, though a second through Pool C is very possible.
Key results in the books: Pretty much all of them
Key game approaching: Whitewater at La Crosse, Oct. 15
A coach’s take: "(Our players) have to realize that in this league, we have no weak sisters," -- Whitewater coach Bob Berezowitz.
ATN’s analysis: Four middle-of-the-standings teams could be a factor in a conference where surprise results aren’t all that surprising, but this could actually be a simple year. Whitewater and La Crosse have dominated their Division III competition, and seem primed to make Saturday’s game one that leads to a playoff invitation. Of course, we’d never get too far ahead of ourselves in the WIAC, but if the Warhawks and Eagles stay on top, it could be the conference’s first two-bid season since 1999.
ATN’s predicted champion: The Whitewater-La Crosse winner.

USA SOUTH ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (USAC)
Suspense rating: 
4
Contender(s): Ferrum, Christopher Newport, Methodist
Probable playoff spots: One in Pool A
Key results in the books: Early-season scores against Shenandoah looked impressive until the Hornets dropped to 0-4.
Key games approaching: Methodist vs. Ferrum at Franklin Co. HS, Oct. 14; Christopher Newport at Methodist, Oct. 22; Christopher Newport at Ferrum, Nov. 12.
ATN’s analysis: Ferrum’s 6-0 hasn’t come against the strongest opposition, but the Panthers have thrust themselves into the playoff picture simply by winning. A big test comes Friday night against a Methodist team that was 7-3 last season (including a 36-18 win over Ferrum) and has possibly toughened itself up with since an early loss at Salisbury. Lurking, of course, is four-time playoff participant Christopher Newport, whose record is blemished by September home losses to Eastern powers Rowan and Salisbury. Saturday’s Monarchs-Panthers winner becomes front-runner to challenge the Captains for a single bid in a league that sent two teams to the postseason last year.
ATN’s predicted champion: Christopher Newport always finds a way to get into the playoffs.

UNIVERSITY ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION (UAA)
Suspense rating: 
3
Contender(s): All four schools
Probable playoff spots: Zero in Pool B
Key results in the books: Chicago 27, Washington U. 0
Key games approaching: All others
ATN’s analysis: A decent suspense rating is necessary here because the only conference result so far was a curveball. We’ve seen Washington U., Carnegie Mellon and Case Western Reserve put up successful seasons recently, but it’s been hard times for Chicago, and the win over the Bears was their first of the season. But they’re also atop the UAA standings, at least for now. The 3-2 non-conference records of Carnegie Mellon and Case don’t inspire much confidence, while Washington’s losses had come at the hands of Mount Union, Wabash and North Central. Chicago gets Case and CMU at home, and is in the driver’s seat, but Chicago struggled to put together four quarters of football early on in the season and could backslide now that its rival is behind them. 
ATN’s predicted champion: Before Saturday, Washington hadn’t lost a UAA game since November 2000 at Chicago, so perhaps the Bears go 2-1 and hold the tiebreaker over the Case-CMU winner.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTERCOLLEGIATE ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (SCIAC)
Suspense rating: 
2
Contender(s): No. 6 Occidental, Redlands
Probable playoff spots: One in Pool A.
Key results in the books: Occidental 41, Cal Lutheran 9; Redlands 32, LaVerne 14
Key games approaching: Redlands at Occidental, Oct. 22.
A coach’s take: "There's lots of good football in conference and Oxy is leading the charge," Maynard said. "They haven't played the level of competition as some other teams, so I would expect them to be undefeated." -- Redlands coach Mike Maynard in the Oct. 12 Redlands Daily Facts.
ATN’s analysis: Based on the wide margins of victory in the Tigers-Kingsmen and Bulldogs-Leopards games, it’s safe bet that this conference will have a de facto championship game a week from Saturday. Redlands’ game at Whitworth wasn’t as close as the 35-21 final score might indicate, but the Bulldogs rallied from a 21-3 deficit to lead Trinity (Texas) in the final minutes of a 28-25 loss. Playing a pair of power teams may have prepped Redlands for Occidental, and a win could make the Tigers a Pool C contender, since the Bulldogs and Tigers have represented the conference well in recent playoff brackets.
ATN’s predicted champion: Occidental is a safe bet, though not certain.

SOUTHERN COLLEGIATE ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (SCAC)
Suspense rating: 
5
Contender(s): No. 12 Trinity (Texas), DePauw
Probable playoff spots: One in Pool A, with a strong Pool C probability.
Key results in the books: Trinity-DePauw, ccd., Wesley 31, DePauw 26, Sept. 3.
Key games approaching: None
A coach’s take: "We're playing a playoff game each weekend. We know there's a good chance that if we lose, we won't be able to extend our season." - Trinity coach Steve Mohr in the San Antonio Express, Sept. 29
ATN’s analysis: This gets the most suspenseful rating possible because of the chance that the title race won’t actually be solved head-to-head. DePauw and Trinity went to the final minute last year, but didn’t get to play their scheduled game Sept. 24 because of Hurricane Rita. The fallout could be significant if each team runs the table and DePauw wins its Monon Bell clash with Wabash, who might have the NCAC berth locked up by then. Centre (5-1) is a dark horse because the conference will consider a 5-1 SCAC record better than 4-1, but with a loss and games at Trinity and DePauw still ahead, the Colonels would be a surprise champion. The two-team automatic berth tiebreaker awards it to the team with fewer overall losses.
ATN’s predicted champion: Too close to call, but history tips the scales toward Trinity.

PRESIDENTS’ ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (PAC)
Suspense rating: 
4
Contender(s): No. 19 Thiel, Thomas More, No. 15 Washington & Jefferson, Waynesburg.
Probable playoff spots: Two in Pool B
Key results in the books: Thiel 38, W&J 35 (OT), Oct. 1; Thomas More 13, Waynesburg 7, Oct. 1
Key games approaching: Thiel at Waynesburg, Oct. 15; Thomas More at Thiel, Oct. 29; W&J at Waynesburg, Oct. 29; W&J at Thomas More, Nov. 5.
A coach’s take: "(Thiel’s) program has come so far. I told people this was the best team we'd play in the regular season since probably 2000, and no one wanted to believe me. - W&J coach Mike Sirianni, in the Oct. 2 Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
ATN’s analysis: We know the Presidents are legit, and the Tomcats get that distinction by virtue of their Oct. 1 win. But whether this becomes a fun-to-watch four-horse race depends on how the Yellow Jackets and PAC-newcomer Saints perform. 
ATN’s predicted champion: At this point, we’d have to say Thiel, with a second bid for the Presidents, but there’s so much football left.

OLD DOMINION ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (ODAC)
Suspense rating: 
1
Contender(s): No. 18 Bridgewater (Va.), Hampden-Sydney, Washington & Lee
Probable playoff spots: One via Pool A
Key results in the books: Bridgewater 31, H-SC 24, Oct. 1.
Key games approaching: W&L at H-SC Oct. 15; Bridgewater at W&L
ATN’s analysis: This is a pretty cut-and-dried situation. With Bridgewater scoring its usual win over Hampden-Sydney, the Tigers need help to get back in the race but there isn’t enough. The bottom four teams in the conference are a combined 3-17. One of those wins was a forfeit, and another came when one bottom-feeder beat another. Washington & Lee could take the title with upsets against the Tigers and Eagles, but it isn’t likely. Neither are two Eagles losses required to get H-SC back in the title picture, though Bridgewater received a late-season overtime scare against Randolph-Macon last season. Even if someone takes the Eagles to the wire again this year, we’d be surprised if this race is anything but over. A 9-1 season for the Tigers could be enough for a berth in the 32-team field, however.
ATN’s predicted champion: Bridgewater.

OHIO ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (OAC)
Suspense rating: 
3
Contender: No. 2 Mount Union
Probable playoff spots: Two, in Pools A and C
Key results in the books: Mount Union 70, John Carroll 0, Sept. 17; Mount Union 55, Otterbein 7, Sept. 24; Otterbein 17, Capital 15, Sept. 17; Mount Union 42, Capital 24, Oct. 1; John Carroll 50, Ohio Northern 25, Oct. 1.
Key game approaching: Otterbein at Ohio Northern, Oct. 15
A coach’s take: "Obviously, Mount Union is Mount Union … it’s going to be a battle for second place, the way I look at it." - John Carroll coach Regis Scafe
ATN’s analysis: The drama here is not in whether the Purple Raiders will win another conference title, but in the race between Capital, Ohio Northern, John Carroll and Otterbein for second. The five teams in the fold have all been nationally ranked of late, except for the Cardinals. But Scafe thinks Otterbein is for real, and their win over the rival Crusaders and this week’s game against Ohio Northern are big. 
ATN’s predicted champion: Mount Union

NORTHWEST CONFERENCE (NWC)
Suspense rating: 
2
Contender: No. 1 Linfield
Probable playoff spots: One in Pool B, though a second is possible
Key results in the books: Linfield 47, Whitworth 32, Oct. 8.
Key games approaching: Willamette at Whitworth, Nov. 5; Linfield at Willamette, Nov. 12.
ATN’s analysis: We’re pretty sold on the defending national champions as a playoff lock. We’re more intrigued by 2-2 Whitworth and 3-3 Willamette’s attempts to get in. One will eliminate the other in early November, and if it’s the Bearcats, a loss the following week to the Wildcats would leave the powerful NWC with a single playoff participant. Although, it is a pretty good one.
ATN’s predicted champion: Linfield

Five scores that tell us something
It’s Around the Nation’s job to watch the Top 25 and talk playoffs, but sometimes we can learn something about the season simply by watching the results page. Here are five results from last weekend that spoke to us:

-> Wittenberg 48, Earlham 0. That makes 110 points in the Quakers' first two games, and 11 in the past four. Earlham lost to Rose-Hulman 48-41 and beat Manchester 69-62, then has lost 48-7, 50-2, 7-2 and 48-0.
-> Montclair State 3, Kean 0 (OT). Sure it rained and there were 13 fumbles, but doesn’t this score tell us that defense isn’t dead?
-> Wheaton 41, Millikin 35 (3 OT): ATN asked if the Big Blue would give the CCIW a fifth contender. They lost, but they answered in the affirmative.
-> Bowdoin 10, Tufts 8: Outgained for the third time in three games, the Polar Bears tell us that yards don’t equal wins. Bowdoin’s victories are by one, three and two points, despite being outgained 399-139 and 356-148 in its past two games.
-> Widener 33, Albright 19: After going 33-5 from 2000-02, the Pioneers dropped to 5-5 and 6-4 the past two seasons. This marked their return. After beating back-to-back solid opponents, Widener is poised to be 7-1 heading into its final two games, on the road at Salisbury and Delaware Valley.

Road trip of the week
An easy winner for longest haul of the week is Colorado College, which travels 1,423 miles to Montgomery, Ala., to face Huntingdon. The Hawks are fresh off an 829-mile trip to San Antonio, against Trinity (Texas). 

Unenviable hikes for conference games include Buffalo State’s 530-mile, nine-hour trip to Salisbury, and a 560-mile, nine-hour trip from Case Western Reserve to Washington U. Louisiana College also has a 410-mile, seven-hour trip to Texas Lutheran ahead. The times, of course, assume there’s a bus ride involved. 

The shortest trip of the week belongs to Pomona-Pitzer, who could walk across the campus they share with Claremont-Mudd-Scripps. There are two home fields and two teams at the five-college conglomerate.

Recommended road trips of the week
With just five night kickoffs on Saturday, there don’t appear to be any thrilling doubleheaders. But Californians may be lucky enough to see four teams in one day, if they feel like driving to Redlands for a 7 p.m. PST start to see the Bulldogs play Whittier, after 1 p.m. kickoffs for Cal Lutheran at La Verne or the game in Claremont.

However, with Johns Hopkins hosting Gettysburg for its traditional Friday night game, and Ferrum taking on Methodist at the same time, the potential exists for a three-game trip. Greensboro visits Shenandoah at 7 p.m., meaning anyone wanting to trek around Virginia could start at Ferrum’s game at Franklin Co. HS, see Bridgewater host Guilford at 1 on Saturday (Hampden-Sydney/Washington & Lee is probably too far) and finish at Shenandoah. 

Likewise, anyone that prefers Johns Hopkins on Friday night could probably see La Salle play Catholic (or McDaniel at Dickinson) and probably make it to Shenandoah on time. But none of those matchups is great.

Gluttons for punishment may be able to get from Worcester State (vs. Maine Maritime at 1:30) to Becker (vs. Hartwick at 5 p.m.) as well.
Of course, we’re just speculating, anyway. We know none of you are crazy enough to actually take these trips.

Five games to watch
It’s a tough field to narrow to five this week, so let’s just mention the games in the conferences listed above.

East Texas Baptist at No. 3 Hardin-Simmons: Surprise! These are the only ASC teams left unbeaten in conference play. And the Tigers’ loss was to Division II Southern Arkansas, so the pair is 9-0 against Division III opposition. ETBU’s four wins have been tight, so at 4-1 they’ve been outscored by 27 points. The game went to overtime the last time the pair met in Abilene, but HSU won 31-13 last season.

No. 4 Rowan at Cortland State: Fans not from the East might have only heard of one of these teams, but this is a legit rivalry. The past four scores: 32-31, 42-21, 34-31 and 34-33. Cortland is a quiet 4-1, but could use the win to make sure a playoff berth isn’t on the line when they visit Ithaca for the Cortaca Jug game. Neither team played last weekend, so both should be well rested.

No. 5 St. John’s at No. 13 Concordia-Moorhead: The polls haven’t been kind to the Cobbers, who won at St. John’s last season and are 5-0. They lost some of their offensive firepower, and will need to summon what they can to stay in the MIAC title chase. Unbeaten St. Olaf looms for both teams.

Albright at No. 9 Delaware Valley: If the Aggies win, they’re the clear front-runner for the MAC title and playoff bid. If the Lions bounce back from last week’s loss, Saturday could end with four teams with one loss in MAC play. The Aggies are coming off a bye, and bring an overlooked defense allowing just 12 points per game into the second of three October home games.

No. 22 Carthage and No. 16 North Central: Another week, another big clash in the CCIW. The Redmen put a defense that has given up just two TDs in the past three games against a Cardinals offense averaging 41 points per game. Something’s got to give. If Wheaton beats Elmhurst and Carthage prevails, the CCIW could be without an unbeaten team three weeks after it had six.

Also keep an eye on: No. 7 UW-Whitewater at No. 10 UW-La Crosse, No. 20 Coe at Wartburg, Otterbein at No. 21 Ohio Northern, Wabash at Wooster, Lakeland at Concordia (Wis.), Methodist at Ferrum, UW-Stout at UW-Eau Claire, Maine Maritime at Fitchburg State, Amherst at Colby.

Who are those guys?
The out-of-division games are few and far between these days as teams are locked into conference play. But when Division III teams fill their schedule openings with opponents from different levels, our friend Ralph Turner will track them on our our message board, Post Patterns. We’ll also keep track of things here, starting with how our teams did last week and who’s coming up: 

Against Division I-AA: No games in Week 6, 4-7 in 2005.
This week’s opponent: La Salle at Catholic.

Against Division II: No games in Week 6, 4-9 in 2005.
This week’s opponent: Chowan at Christopher Newport

Against NAIA: 1-0 in Week 5, 11-14 in 2005.
This week’s opponents: Buena Vista at Waldorf, Linfield at Southern Oregon, Seton Hill at Kean

Streak watch
Most teams are maddeningly inconsistent, or perhaps understandably so. And then there are these guys, who throw drama out the window as they do the same thing each week.

The nation’s longest losing streaks: 
Heidelberg (21 consecutive losses, last win against Marietta on Oct. 4, 2003, 0-4 in 2005)
Concordia (Ill.) (16 consecutive losses, last win against Eureka Nov. 8, 2003, 0-5 in 2005)

Those two teams each lost by more than 60 on Saturday, and face a fairly tough opponent this week.

The nation’s longest winning streaks:
-> Trinity, Conn. (25 consecutive wins, last loss against Williams, Sept. 28, 2002, 3-0 in 2005)
-> Linfield (17 consecutive wins, last loss against St. John’s, Dec. 6, 2003, 4-0 in 2005)
-> Monmouth (13 consecutive wins, last loss against St. Norbert, Sept. 18, 2004, 6-0 in 2005)

Winless teams in 2005: Excluding the NESCAC, there are 20, down from 21 last week. Mass-Dartmouth ditched the group with a 28-7 over still-winless Nichols, while Lewis & Clark concluded its four-game season without a triumph.

Unbeaten teams in 2005: 22, down from 32 last week. This group took a big hit last weekend, as then-No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor and then No. 13 Carthage’s losses headlined the exits from the group. With wins over Fitchburg State and Maine Maritime, Endicott and Bridgewater State made sure there were no unbeatens left in the NEFC. Also losing for the first time were Albright, Adrian, Huntingdon, McDaniel, Wooster and UW-Stout.

Mark my words (or eat ’em)
We have to start this week by eating some words. Huntingdon most certainly did not get a dose of reality. In fact, they led late and should have given Trinity one.
I have also failed miserably at getting Around the Nation done and up on Wednesdays. I’ll eat my words, and will have nothing more to say about that.

As for what I think about this week:
Call it karma, but perhaps the less-than-endearing Ferrum fans on the blog will stop looking ahead to Christopher Newport, the playoffs and top 25 respect when Methodist rings their bell. Ferrum’s scores against three common opponents are better than the Monarchs’ ... so it’s definitely not a game to look past, but perhaps not a stumbling block for the Panthers either. Which is fine. The comments section is there for people to discuss anyway.

Elsewhere, I really think this week’s Whitewater-La Crosse winner could be a Pool A team and the loser a Pool C. The CCIW will either sort or further cloud itself, and I think Cortland State is dangerous for Rowan. 

Perhaps Concordia-Moorhead will remind voters to tone down their name recognition boost for St. John’s. How can we rank the MIAC leader ahead of Occidental (which beat C-M 42-40 in last year’s playoffs) anyway? I realize rosters change and there’s plenty of performance to go by this year which should make last year rather irrelevant. But also, the last time conference champions met is a good gauge when separating undefeated teams with no common opponents. I’m not convinced Occidental is the fourth-best team in the country, but only one team really let them have it last season, and there’s only one real challenge left on their schedule.

My top 25 overflow, in an inexact but partially thought-out order: Ohio Northern, John Carroll and Capital, followed by Carthage, Salisbury, Whitworth, Christopher Newport, Bridgewater, UW-Stout, UW-Eau Claire and UW-Oshkosh. DePauw, St. Olaf, Alma, Ferrum, Monmouth, Johns Hopkins, Union, Hobart, Cortland State, Hampden-Sydney, East Texas Baptist.

Texas Lutheran, Albright, Adrian and Wooster are running out of chances to be considered. I had to let go of Bethel.

Widener, Elmhurst and RPI have officially appeared on the radar.

I did quite a bit of re-evaluating when I voted this week, so if you eagerly saw your team in the overflow last week and don’t this week, it could be because they moved into my top 25. McDaniel’s loss to Gettysburg sent ripples through the East, where we’d considered Bridgewater a power team. The Eagles lost to McDaniel in the opener, although word is injuries have sapped the Green Terror’s strength.

You can certainly question my voting motives on the Around the Nation thread on the message board. Also, remember to keep an eye on our blog, the Daily Dose, where other D3football.com staff members take in-depth looks ahead to each Saturday, and post immediate thoughts on the results not long after all of the scores are in.

Feedback
One advantage to the Web format is instant reaction and interaction from readers. As noted below, we always encourage all kinds of feedback, in several ways. And sometimes, we ask for specific things to help us flesh out story ideas.

Here are three things D3football.com staffers are interested in writing about soon. If you can help us in any way, we’d appreciate it.

->Around The Nation has examined Division III’s best rivalries in the past, and as this year’s rivalry week draws near, we’d like to examine the topic from a different angle. We want to tell the best stories, period. Whether it’s old-timers recalling pranks or official historians recounting the history of a trophy, we’re interested. Even if you don’t know much, but you know someone in the program does, use our feedback form or e-mail to point us in the right direction.

->We know video games are a dorm room staple, whether you’re a current player addicted to Madden, or a former one who remembers going at in on Bill Walsh football for Sega Genesis. But games have become so advanced these days, coaches and players can use them to teach parts of their real-life playbooks, or hone game-management skills. If you know of any players or coaches who have done this, we may write a feature on it.

->ATN is interested in tackling issues regarding racial, religious and cultural differences on campus. Division III football players have much in common, but have taken many different roads to the college fields. If you’re a player who doesn’t quite fit in with your teammates, or on campus, we’d like to hear from you. Likewise, if you feel at home with your teammates, but notice your squad is a lot different than the opponents you play, write to tell us how you feel. As of now, I have no angle on this story or axe to grind, I’m just intrigued.

We’re also looking into possibly compiling one little-known but interesting fact about each of the 231 schools we cover, or writing something about brothers, twins or family connections on one team or on rivals.

If you can help us with any of those, or have some other beef to air, there are three ways to contact us: Use our feedback form, send e-mail to keith@d3football.com, or follow the Around the Nation thread on the new Post Patterns message board. Also, the comments section of our blog, The Daily Dose, is open to the public.

Attention SIDs
As always, Around the Nation requests media guides and any other aids in helping us cover your school or conference this season. We are also interested in seeing game tapes from schools we aren’t able to see in person this season. 

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Greg Thomas

Greg Thomas graduated in 2000 from Wabash College. He has contributed to D3football.com since 2014 as a bracketologist, Kickoff writer, curator of Quick Hits, and Around The Nation Podcast guest host before taking co-host duties over in 2021. Greg lives in Claremont, California.

Previous columnists: 2016-2019: Adam Turer.
2014-2015: Ryan Tipps.
2001-2013: Keith McMillan.

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