D3sports.com photo

By Keith McMillan
D3sports.com

Typically, late in the Division III playoffs, when teams from different regions begin to play each other, there is very little non-subjective information available to help measure the strength of teams playing.

In the case of the Amos Alonzo Stagg Bowl, hard data such as a common opponent is nearly unheard of. But in 2004, Willamette saw both national finalists up close and personal. The Bearcats were unlucky enough to play at Mary Hardin-Baylor Sept. 11, and close their regular season at Linfield Nov. 13.

We took a few minutes to talk with Willamette coach Mark Speckman this week to get a read on the Stagg Bowl participants. And despite what the results against his team — UMHB beat the Bearcats 25-22 in double overtime, while Linfield rolled 48-14 — might have you believe, Speckman thinks picking a Stagg Bowl winner is a toss-up.

“I think it’s going to come down to which defense slows the other offense down,” said Speckman, whose team went 7-3 before losing to Occidental in the first round of the playoffs. “I could see both teams winning, in different scenarios. I’m being genuine. I could see things going right for both teams.”

If you were expecting Speckman to determine a conclusive favorite based on his experiences against both teams, you’ll be disappointed. He sees the strengths of the Wildcats and the Crusaders.

Speckman says Mary Hardin-Baylor is extremely athletic, has good speed on defense, is very well-coached on offense and is very physical. He also points out the strong play of the Crusaders’ special teams. Mary Hardin-Baylor returned five interceptions and two punts for touchdowns, and picked up blocked punts for two more. They also returned three PATs for two points each and notched a safety.

Linfield, says Speckman, is well-coached, confident and “knows what they’re good at.” He also thinks the Wildcats have exceptional team depth and a defense that is better than average.

So what about those scores against Willamette? Can we put any stock in those?

“I think it’s kind of hard to judge from that,” Speckman said. “I think the strength of Linfield played to our weakness, because we had a young secondary this year. Mary Hardin-Baylor played more to our strengths, attacking our defensive line, which was pretty good. (Linfield and Mary Hardin-Baylor) are such a contrast in styles.”

While the Crusaders prefer to control the ball and the clock, the Wildcats line up in multiple offensive sets and air it out. Quarterback Brett Elliott leads the nation in pass efficiency and was No. 2 in total offense. Recievers Casey Allen and George Carter each average more than 100 yards per game. Coach Jay Locey, a defensive coordinator-turned-receivers coach/offensive guru, has guided an offense that racks up about 384 yards per game through the air.

“The thing about Linfield,” said Speckman, “is they can throw four deep balls, hit one, and it’s 7-0. Mary Hardin-Baylor’s going to have to grind it out.”

That will suit the Crusaders just fine, as they couldn’t be more committed to the run. Sure, rushing for 355 yards per game is impressive. But maybe more so was giving fourth-string running back Anthony Carter five carries while trailing by 11 with less than nine minutes to play against Division III goliath Mount Union. That’s dancing with who brung you.

On the ground or by air, offense is expected to dominate Saturday’s game. The Wildcats come in with the nation’s top offense, putting up 522 yards and nearly 52 points per game. Mary Hardin-Baylor is second in both categories, at 511 yards and 49 points.

What was that Speckman was saying about defense?

Truthfully, he said, the contrast in styles was one of several factors in the difference in outcome against Willamette, which is also a physical, run-based team.

“I really think it’s a matchup thing,” he said. “We matched up pretty well against Mary Hardin-Baylor, and Linfield I don’t think we did. Our lack of depth really showed in that game.”

While Mary Hardin-Baylor had played the Bearcats once before, a 27-15 Crusader win in Oregon in 2003, Linfield is one of Willamette’s biggest rivals.

“Linfield knows us better than we know us,” Speckman said.

The Wildcats held Willamette to a regular-season-low 174 yards rushing in their meeting.

The Bearcats led 15-13 in the fourth quarter of their game against Mary Hardin-Baylor, and each team missed a field goal in the first overtime. Willamette gave up a 36-yard field goal, then had its 35-yard try blocked.

Speckman is not surprised the Crusaders have made it to the Stagg Bowl.

“All year I thought Mary Hardin Baylor was a terrific team … I thought we played a really good game that night, and maybe overachieved a little bit.”

By the time they made it to the Linfield game, Speckman said his team, which didn’t have great depth to begin with, was worn down from a rugged schedule.

“We didn’t have as many bullets in our gun when we played Linfield,” he said.

The Wildcats have grown stronger as the season progresses, Speckman said, something he feels good teams do.

“Linfield has tremendous depth, which is one of the reasons they have a great chance of winning this thing,” he said.

Speckman had a chance to win it all with Willamette, when he was offensive coordinator for the 1997 team that lost 14-7 to Findlay (Ohio) in the NAIA championship game. The Northwest Conference moved to Division III in 1998, and Pacific Lutheran won the Stagg Bowl in 1999.

“I don’t think there’s an arrogance, but our teams are confident we can hold our own against anybody,” Speckman said.

Does that mean we should expect Linfield to win on Saturday?

“Each team has the potential to get on top of the other early,” Speckman said.

Okay, okay, we get the picture. Look for a toss-up.

The Division III Heisman it ain’t

Around the Nation applauds the Gagliardi Trophy Committee for selecting a winner, Wesley’s Rocky Myers, that best exemplified what they thought a Division III player should be.

Those of you equating the Gagliardi with Division I-A’s Heisman Trophy have come to the wrong place. Past Gagliardis have been awarded to the nation’s most outstanding player, who often was a no-brainer pick. This time, if folks outside of Delaware and the ACFC have heard of Myers, they’re probably spending too much time in front of the computer.

Without being privy to the information about grades and community service that the Gagliardi committee uses to help select its winner, I can think of five players off the top of my head that would have been invited to Salem, if the Gagliardi was really modeled after the Heisman: Wooster’s Tony Sutton, Linfield’s Brett Elliott, Occidental’s Andy Collins, Carthage’s Dante Washington and Mount Union’s Zac Bruney.

Now, we’re not saying that Division III needs a Heisman. Maybe transfers from other Divisions and players with GPAs in the mid-2s aren’t what we want to exemplify.

The Gagliardi has a fine track record of selecting the year’s most outstanding player anyway, which is what the Heisman claims to do. The Melberger, Division III's other trophy, can’t necessarily make that claim. In any case, a group can award its trophy to whomever it pleases.

As a one-time free safety, trust me, I’m thrilled Myers could earn such consideration from the position. But if fans are looking to the Gagliardi to be honor Division III’s most outstanding, exciting or best player, they might end up disappointed.

Do your homework

Greg Easterbrook of NFL.com’s Tuesday Morning Quarterback had this to say about Mary Hardin-Baylor’s win over Mount Union:
“Located in Benton, Texas, Mary Hardin-Baylor University offers students a “first contact system.” First contact -- isn't that what happened between Earth and the planet Vulcan in 2063 on Star Trek? 
While we're on the point of the corrosive effects of running up the score, consider Mount Union, which coming into the Mary Hardin-Baylor game had won 120 of its previous 122 outings, including six of the past eight Division III titles. In 2003, Mount Union frantically ran up the score, winning twice by 66-0, winning once 68-13. Leading 49-0 in the fourth quarter of a 2003 playoff game, Mount Union kept passing, frantically trying to run up the score. How did the football gods respond? When Mount Union met underdog St. John's of Minnesota in the 2003 Division III championship, the Johnnies won. Mount Union had a lot of experience laughing at the other sideline; players had no experience calling on their own characters under duress. TMQ detailed the 2003 crash-and-burn of Mount Union [in its Dec. 23, 2003 column].
So what did Mount Union learn for the 2004 season? Once again, the team frantically ran up the score on undermanned opponents, winning one game 57-0, another game 59-10, passing while ahead 55-0 in the fourth quarter of [the John Carroll game]. In repeatedly trying to humiliate opponents by posting runaway scores, Mount Union lost the ability to respect opponents - and paid dearly when it lined up on Saturday against an equal team.”

Greg, with all due respect, you lost the ability to base your opinions on anything beyond the most basic facts, like final scores.

As a fellow writer of way-too-lengthy football columns, I know you were only trying to be opinionated and funny, as is TMQ’s style. But many readers don’t know that. If you’re going to speak authoritatively on subjects like Division III football and running up scores, you’re sort of obligated to know what you’re talking about, even if they’re just your opinions.

Two things popped into my head after reading your item.

One, there’s a difference between running up scores as a form of bad sportsmanship and scoring a lot of points because you are that much better than the other team.

Two, Mary Hardin-Baylor and the 2003 St. John’s teams weren’t exactly saints when it came to blowing opponents out.

You mentioned Mount Union’s 66-0 win over Bridgewater as an example of their running up the score. I was at that game, and the Eagles, who played man coverage and blitzed all day, brought it on themselves. Mount Union was nicer than it had to be, attempting two second-down field goals in the fourth quarter rather than risk running the score above 70. Two of their TDs were scored on defense.

I’m not exactly known as a Mount Union apologist in Division III circles, but when you call into question the Purple Raiders’ character (“Mount Union had a lot of experience laughing at the other sideline”) you only make us laugh at you. Mount Union has always been sportsmanlike, in victory or defeat.

I’m not sure why you assume a team can’t simply be that much better than its opponent, much the way Oklahoma is against Baylor or Texas A&M.

In the 1995 season, when Florida State hung 70 or more on Duke, N.C. State and Wake Forest, Bobby Bowden played his starters well into the third quarter because he thought they needed the work, not because the Seminoles needed a tenth touchdown.

Passing teams pass no matter what the score, because when the scrubs get in, they only know the base offense.

Just because a team wins by a lot doesn’t necessarily mean it is running up the score to be unsportsmanlike.

I’ll let you guess how many times UMHB dropped 60 or more on an opponent this year. Nope, not once. Not three times. Mary Hardin-Baylor scored 60, 62, 68, 70 and 73 points on opponents this year. They won seven games by 35 or more, and one of those wins was in the national quarterfinals.

The kicker is, all Mary Hardin-Baylor does is run the ball. So how do they call off the dogs when the opposition can’t tackle their fourth-string back (who played in the fourth quarter against Mount Union)?

Are they the bad guys now? What about the 2003 Johnnies? Great champions, but also a cute little story for people who don’t follow Division III? They may not wear pads or tackle in practice, but they won games 74-7, 63-9 and 50-0 that year. Ask their conference opponents if they think the saintly Johnnies run up the score.

I’m not sure your running-up-the-score rants are grounded in any kind of logic.

Calling out another writer may be asking for the sports journalism Gods to smite me, but that’s a chance I’m willing to take.

Question & Answer
Q: “I am leaving the game right now, there [are four] minutes in the third left and it’s 45-0 Linfield. Rowan is awful, maybe a .500 team in our conference. Two questions for you, and I really appreciate the previous reply, but does anyone outside of the west pay any attention to this conference? Linfield was [ranked No.] 2 all year, I assure you they are 28 points better than anyone else at this level. Elliott is not even mentioned for that POY award and he has broken every record this year. My second question is this, is there any chance Mary Hardin[-Baylor] gives Linfield any resistance? Thanks for the correspondence.
--- Ryan Hubka”

A: Ryan:
You aren’t the first to imply that others somehow ignore the Northwest Conference, but I think people are well aware. Linfield, as you noted, was rated No. 2 (almost) all year and received six first-place votes. It was tough to rank Willamette, Pacific Lutheran or Whitworth until late in the season, because we considered those schools to be the toughest competition on each other’s schedules, and all of the games were late in the year. In other words, until they started beating each other, pollsters couldn’t say those teams had beaten anyone really impressive.

As mentioned above, the Gagliardi is not necessarily a player of the year award, so don’t go by that if you think Elliott is getting ignored. He wasn’t nominated for the Gagliardi Trophy. But he’ll undoubtedly be a first team All-American.

And yes, I think there is a very good chance Mary Hardin-Baylor hangs with Linfield. But then, I told you there was a possibility that Rowan would too.

A look back at how we did
Around the Nations from earlier this year provided you with 10 questions the games would have to answer (Aug. 30), and 16 surprises not to be surprised by (Oct. 21). With just one game left in the season, let’s revisit the Aug. 30 column and see how things turned out. We’ll take a look at the 16 surprises later.

Before the season kicked off, ATN answered 10 questions outright. We said St. John’s would not repeat, Delaware Valley was more than just a one-year wonder and that 9-1 wouldn’t guarantee the playoffs. Two out of those three ain’t bad. Could we stay close to 67 percent on the questions only games could answer?

We asked: Will Bridgewater be the last Virginia team standing?
We said: Returning key cogs from the nation’s No. 2 offense in 2004 and nine defensive starters lead us to believe the last team standing will be Hampden-Sydney.
What happened: Christopher Newport, mentioned in the same item, went deeper into the playoffs than Shenandoah or Bridgewater, teams from the Old Dominion who were eliminated on the first Saturday of the playoffs. The Captains were among Division III’s final 16, losing at Washington & Jefferson 24-10.

We asked: Are Rowan’s days as a dominant program done?
We said: There have been off years in Glassboro before, so we’ll give them this year to prove K.C. Keeler didn’t take the Profs’ magic with him to Delaware.
What happened: The Profs proved they were still among the Division III elite, winning the East playoff bracket with a decisive 56-7 win over Delaware Valley. Despite their 52-0 final four loss to Linfield, they answered our question.

We asked: Is Linfield’s new quarterback any good, and if so, is that enough to get the Wildcats to Salem?
We said: It’s not just enough. A Stagg Bowl trip pretty much rests on the performance of new quarterback Brett Elliott, a Utah transfer who started eight games in Division I-A.
What happened: Elliott delivered, setting passing records for college football’s most consistent winners, and guided the Wildcats to their first Stagg Bowl.

We asked: Are the Texas teams overrated?
We said: Based on their playoff performance alone, Trinity excluded, we'd have to say yes. Each year an ASC team starts off highly ranked, only to flop when it counts. 
What happened: What? You didn’t think we’d finish with a perfect 10, did you? Mary Hardin-Baylor proved that Texas’ Division III weren’t at all overrated, and since we can’t have this one back, we’ll take our medicine and move on.

We asked: Will any conference race be closer than the ASC was last season?
We said: No race may ever be that close again, when two points separated three teams in a head-to-head-to-head tiebreaker. But this year’s MAC, CCIW and ASC races could again provoke nail-biting across swaths of the nation. 
What happened: The ASC and CCIW could have been won by any of three teams on the last week of the season, and the MAC was a great race between Delaware Valley and Moravian, both unbeaten for the first seven weeks. But none came down to that close of a tiebreaker.

We asked: Which of the 21 AQ leagues could send two teams to the playoffs?
We said: The OAC is always a safe bet, since coming in second behind Mount Union is a lot like coming in first. 
What happened: The ASC, USAC and CCIW earned the Pool C bids, while the NWC sent Linfield and Willamette in Pool B. In the OAC, Ohio Northern was 8-2, Capital 7-3 and three teams 6-4.

We asked: Will all eight teams that went winless last year break the drought this year?
We said: Bowdoin, Dubuque, Framingham State, Plymouth State, Puget Sound and Sul Ross State are all aiming for their first win in at least 22 months, while Husson and Huntingdon are looking for the first victory in program history.
What happened: All but Framingham State won a game, with Huntingdon winning four of its last five and Puget Sound going 5-4.
Not only that, but we attempted to predict the game in which the streak would end. We hit on Bowdoin beating Bates (though it beat Tufts first), Dubuque beating Blackburn, Plymouth State beating Husson. We called Husson’s win over Southern Virginia and Huntingdon beating Southwest Assemblies of God, which was a guess. Sul Ross State beat two lower-half ASC teams, and Puget Sound did beat La Verne, though it beat Pomona-Pitzer and Claremont-Mudd-Scripps first.
We even hedged on picking Framingham State for a W.

We asked: Fourteen teams won just one game last year. Which one will win the most games this year?
We said: With four very winnable games on the schedule, a couple of upsets could push [William Paterson] past .500.
What happened: Of Whittier, William Paterson, Utica, Millsaps, Maine Maritime, La Verne, Lebanon Valley, Kean, Hiram, Heidelberg, FDU-Florham, Eureka, Bethany and Newport News, three teams won four games: La Verne, Lebanon Valley and Millsaps.

We asked: The East hasn't sent a team to the Stagg Bowl since Rowan in 1999. Can it this year?
We said: Absolutely. It just takes a team playing well in the playoffs, and perhaps a stroke of luck. ... It would work best for an East team to draw a semifinal opponent from the South, probably the next weakest region overall.
What happened: The East didn‘t draw the South, and Linfield smacked Rowan. Next question.

We asked: Which four teams will play Dec. 11 for a chance to go to Salem?
We said: Mount Union, Linfield, Hampden-Sydney and Springfield.
Our guests said:
Justin Fossum, Aloha, Ore.: Mount Union, Springfield, Linfield, Mary Hardin-Baylor
Clinton Greenebaum, Hartland, Wis.: Mount Union, Rowan, UW-La Crosse, Hardin-Simmons
Albie Battaglia, Atlantic City, N.J.: Mount Union, Rowan, St. John’s, Bridgewater
Jesse Cazakoff, Stone Ridge, N.Y.: Mount Union, Ithaca, Linfield, Hampden-Sydney
What happened: Justin Fossum hit three out of four, and the rest of us were two for four.
For those of us who picked the Pride, Bombers or Tigers … those teams didn’t even make the playoffs.