The offense is hitting on big plays, regardless of the quarterback, and the defense is throttling the opposing running game.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
The opponent is capable of returning the favor. Nobody has hit on more than one play of 30-plus yards vs. the Titans, and Whitewater didn't have a single play as long as 20 yards.
This season's turning point:
Branden Lloyd blocked Lake Bachar's field goal attempt with 1:59 left to preserve a 10-7 lead and Oshkosh ran out the clock to finish off the upset win.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.491 (150)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
242.6/264.6
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
114.5/162.4
How far can they go?
It starts to get interesting in the quarterfinals.
The defense is limiting big plays and the offense is playing with their full complement of starters. The Wheaton defense surrendered just 13 TDs this year (8th in scoring D) and only one was a scoring play over 20 yds. The Thunder offense played the last three games of their schedule with just four healthy first-team players but get most of them back for the playoffs.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
They are not converting third downs on offense and failing to get off the field on third down defensively. Wheaton is one of only three teams ranked in the top 15 statistically in both third down conversions and third down defense. The other two are Mount Union and St Thomas.
This season's turning point:
After Wheaton had made several defensive stops, Zach Lindquist made a great catch and extended the ball into the end zone to give the Thunder their first lead in the Little Brass Bell game, 10-3, on the final play of the first half. Wheaton went on to beat its rival 17-9.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.509 (100)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
241.6/239.8
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
92.6/174.8
How far can they go?
The defense has done a fantastic job here while the offense has been struggling to keep its personnel on the field. If the offense can get back up to speed in the playoff opener, then Wheaton has a chance to get out of this bracket, loaded as it is.
A second running back can step up and take on enough carries to keep Jordan Ratliffe from having to carry the ball more than 20 times per game and the offense can score enough to keep the defense off the field.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
Receivers have trouble holding onto the football and the offense becomes one-dimensional, the young players in the secondary show their age and the Warhawks fail to demonstrate the special teams advantage they've enjoyed for the past decade.
This season's turning point:
Surviving the Week 8 game with UW-Stevens Point without picking up a second loss, allowing the Warhawks to regroup against three of the teams from the bottom of the conference.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.504 (115)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
217.8/233.5
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
79.2/201.4
How far can they go?
Not yet willing to rule out a return to Salem, or at least a trip to Alliance, but the path is a really tough one.
They run the ball consistently. Franklin still throws the ball a lot but with a veteran offensive line (combined 119 career starts), the Grizzlies are more balanced than ever and ran for 150-plus yards in sixth consecutive games. On defense, the second and third level tackle well and limit yards after contact.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
Turnovers strike. They plagued the Grizzlies in their two losses in the first two weeks of the season with young offensive skill players. Not allowing the opponent extra possessions by turning the ball over is one of the keys for postseason success.
This season's turning point:
When the schedule turned. Franklin had Illinois Wesleyan and Butler to open the season, but after an 0-2 start, they got to recover against Anderson and the Grizzlies have been pretty much off to the races since.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.489 (155)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
171.0/374.2
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
116.9/195.0
How far can they go?
They have a decent first-round matchup but the road ends there.
Ohio Northern Polar Bears
Seed:
Likely No. 5, UW-Oshkosh bracket
Last Top 25 ranking:
No. 24, Week 4 2011
Location:
Ada, Ohio
Enrollment (FT undergrads):
2185
Stadium:
Dial-Roberson Stadium (3500)
Playing surface:
Grass
Conference:
OAC
Preseason ranking from Kickoff:
39
Head coach:
Dean Paul (Mount Union '90)
Career record:
123-51 (.707) overall; 83-39 (.680) at Ohio Northern
Running back Justin Magazine has more carries the the Polar Bears have completed passes. The Bears are 7-1 when the happens. The lone loss in that span was against Baldwin Wallace in which the Bears lost by one, missing three field goal attempts.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
They're not putting pressure on the quarterback. The Polar Bears have recorded four or more sacks in a game four times this year but only have two total sacks in their losses.
This season's turning point:
Getting into the field and having a second shot.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.487 (159)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
192.1/247.4
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
211.3/159.6
How far can they go?
Good shot at a first-round win, perhaps even favored, but with Oshkosh looming it will be a short trip.
Frank Laterza, fellow defensive back Ryan Grandlic, or someone on the defensive side of the ball comes up with the key takeaways. Laterza and Grandlic have combined for 13 of them.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
The offense sputters in the red zone and settles for field goals and the rare turnover (they had seven all season) comes at the wrong time.
This season's turning point:
After North Park took a 31-28 lead with 1:45 left on a 99-yard fumble return, St. Norbert drove 66 yards in 76 seconds to retake the lead, then capped it off with an interception return for a touchdown on the game's final play to win 41-31 in McCarty's second game as head coach.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.515 (84)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
243.4/166.9
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
116.8/163.0
How far can they go?
To Whitewater and back. Often in the past 11 playoff trips, St. Norbert has gotten a tough draw and performed admirably in a first-round loss. If they protect the ball, this could be one of those, but don't expect an upset.
Sophomore standout quarterback Michael Whitley is firing on all cylinders, both through the air and on the ground, and it doesn't matter that nobody else runs the ball effectively.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
Opponents manage to keep Whitley in the pocket and the defense can't even get to third down, let alone get off the field.
This season's turning point:
After allowing Wisconsin Lutheran an easy drive for a touchdown to draw within two points in Week 5, Lakeland got a stop on the two-point conversion, then held on a subsequent Warriors drive to open the NACC schedule off with a 15-13 win after a 1-2 start to the season.
They don't miss a beat on offense. Starting quarterback Dakota Paulson has missed the past three games because of injury but he's just one of three Saints to get significant snaps at the position this season.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
They're losing the turnover battle, and the quarterback is the leading rusher.
This season's turning point:
The Saints stopped Northwestern four times in St. Scholastica territory in the second half and held on to beat the Eagles 13-7 in the game that would eventually decide the UMAC title.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.499 (130)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
136.3/244.4
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
139.7/117.8
How far can they go?
This program is building toward a playoff win. But the building isn't ready for occupancy yet.
UW-Oshkosh Titans
Wheaton (Ill.) Thunder
UW-Whitewater Warhawks
Franklin Grizzlies
Ohio Northern Polar Bears
St. Norbert Green Knights
Lakeland Muskies
St. Scholastica Saints