Quick Hits: Our predictions for Stagg Bowl 50

Dec 15, 2023

Photos by Doug Sasse, Larry Radloff, d3photography.com

Welcome to Salem for Stagg Bowl 50! As the Division III Football National Championship returns to the site where 24 previous champions have been crowed, one thing is certain- - fans in Salem will see a new champion. North Central is making their fourth consecutive trip to the national championship game, but their first in Salem. Cortland, of course, is playing in the program's first national championship. Will North Central's Stagg Bowl experience propel them to a third championship? Or will Cortland be able to ride their offensive tidal wave of the last two weeks to their first title? Our Quick Hits panel, plus guest panelists from each side of today's title tilt, is back to break down Stagg Bowl 50 and give you their picks to raise the Walnut & Bronze tonight. The Quick Hits panel has been making these predictions dating back to 1999 when the panel correctly picked what everyone in Division III thought was an upset - Pacific Lutheran over Rowan. The panel has correctly picked the winner 22 of the last 23 Stagg Bowls. Mary Hardin-Baylor snapped the panel's perfect streak in 2021 winning the national championship in spite of the panel's 6-4 split in favor of North Central.

None of our panelists consulted with one another prior to their predictions. Feel free to add your pick and analysis in the comments section below.

— Greg Thomas

Pat Coleman, D3football.com publisher and executive editor

I've been pondering this game all week, obviously. I've watched North Central win with a lot of points, and win with a more normal scoring total. Wartburg defended this team as well as anyone has all year, and I don't see that changing on Friday night. If Cortland is going to win, it's going to be in a shootout -- slowing down the game is only going to work in one direction, most likely, because if North Central scores, it will probably be in two minutes or less. What I'm hoping for is an entertaining game, but I don't see a surprise at the end. I've written and talked so much about this game, I'm going to keep it short and just say:

North Central 48, Cortland 38.

Keith McMillan, editor emeritus and originator of Around The Nation

Last week in Ashland, I decided I’d pick Randolph-Macon to win the national championship game, using the logic that it might lose to North Central 95 times out of 100, but it only needs to figure out how to win the Stagg Bowl once. That applies for Cortland, which to reach Salem whomped my alma mater as well as Alma, scoring 107 points in the process. How do we pick against that team? Conversely, how do you pick against a North Central program that has lost once, in a Stagg Bowl, since mid-2019? I could trot out history, stats, matchups or deep philosophical thoughts about the game of football. But this might come down to something straightforward: Health. How much can North Central’s CCIW DPOY DE Martin Egbo give? Will Cardinals CB Antwain Walker, who helped limit the damage Wayne Ruby Jr. did in last year’s Stagg Bowl, be able to go? And if he can’t, and Cortland WR JJ Laap is active and close to 100%, forget a blowout. Think shootout. With QBs Luke Lehnen and Zac Boyes playing at their peaks, a memorable Stagg Bowl seems reasonable. I can’t quite bring myself to pick against the mighty Cardinals, but if you’re sleeping on Cortland, that’s on you.

North Central 43, Cortland 37.

Ryan Tipps, D3football.com Senior Editor

Because each team is part of an iconic rivalry in Division III -- North Central with the Little Brass Bell and Cortland with the Cortaca Jug Game -- there will be a lot of big-game experience suiting up in the locker rooms in Salem. That will negate some of the natural advantage NCC may have from having been a frequent Stagg Bowl participant, and it should allow both teams to settle in quickly from any pre-game jitters. A couple of weeks ago, I would have predicted a larger margin here, but Cortland is certainly at the peak of their playing form right now. That's a good recipe for a tight matchup. Plus, even though these teams might be best known for their offense, the defenses have had some spectacular -- and pivotal -- moments in the postseason, and Friday is a day when these defenses can step up and keep this one close.

North Central 31, Cortland 24.

Greg Thomas, Around The Nation Columnist

Two weeks ago, I wouldn’t have hesitated to make North Central a two touchdown favorite against any team in the division. In those two weeks, however, we’ve not only seen two of the division’s elite teams force North Central to go the distance, but we’ve seen Cortland steadily improve. As North Central has seemingly had key defensive players sidelined by injury, Cortland’s offense has gotten healthy which has manifested in five first half touchdowns in each of the last two games for the Red Dragons. That kind of output, early in the game, is key for Cortland. North Central’s offense would be the ninth highest scoring team in the division if we are only to count their first half points. In their fourth consecutive Stagg Bowl, North Central is comfortable. Cortland in their first, don’t seem awestruck- a lot of these players have played in Yankee Stadium, after all.If we’ve learned anything in these playoffs, it’s that we shouldn’t make assumptions about outcomes. These offenses are crazy efficient. Luke Lehnen and Zac Boyes on the same field directing the two most explosive offenses in the division are beyond worth the price of admission. Defenses win championships and in shootout style games it’s often a defensive play- a fumble or an interception or a fourth down break up- that make the final difference. I can see a defensive player having that kind of Stagg Bowl moment in the fourth quarter tonight, but until then, hang on. I’m taking the Cardinals to win and complete their wire-to-wire trip as the division’s number one team, but Cortland is one of those elites and will absolutely make them earn it.

North Central 49, Cortland 42.

Frank Rossi, D3football.com Stagg Bowl sideline reporter, Co-host In the (D3FB) Huddle

It’s been an interesting month of playoff action, and if you asked me if this would be the matchup we’d see in Salem a month ago — I would’ve said you’re crazy. As such, especially for Cortland’s Cinderella run this year, congratulations to both teams.

Now, though, I need to assess the realities of this game. Unfortunately for Cortland, North Central’s scare last week likely woke the team up in a way that will make Friday night’s Red Dragons task to win the Stagg Bowl even more Herculean. What are the keys for Cortland to have a chance to win this game? As I said in ATN 349, shrinking the game, avoiding a shootout, and trying to establish a run game early are important when facing an opponent of the caliber and strength of North Central. Control what you can control, especially with possession, and hope that North Central can commit enough forced and unforced errors throughout the night.

For North Central to win, they just need to rely on their strengths: an insane run game — including their QB, Luke Lehnen’s, speed and elusiveness — with the line advantages they enjoy, and incredibly capable WRs who will catch defensives sleeping too often.

When a game relies on one team making errors for the other to win, you have to go with that stronger team on paper in a picks column like this one — even despite my fanfare for New York D3 football over the past two decades. Cortland will make a game of it, but they will likely fall short in this special Stagg Bowl 50.

North Central 41, Cortland 30.

Logan Hansen, Hansen Ratings Creator, Quick Hits Panelist

Cortland put it all together last weekend. It was the perfect storm of an offense and defense having a great game plan, executing that game plan to near perfection, a talent advantage, and some incredible plays by their stars. The Red Dragons controlled the lines of scrimmage, and Cortland only had one play lose any yards (and they only lost one) all game.

On the other side of the bracket, North Central took a punch, and trailed, for the first time all season. At points in the second half, their offense looked flustered, and the defense looked gassed, but still, when they needed big plays to regain the lead, and then to stop Wartburg twice on potential game winning drives, they got it. Who made the big catches? Was it DeAngelo Hardy, their All American WR? No. It was Joey Lombardi, who had a Randy Moss-like 4/161/2 stat line. Who made the big defensive stops? Was it one of their four First Team All-Region defenders? No. It was Zack Orr and Angel Cusumano.

I said in my semifinal preview that big time players make big time plays in big time games. Cortland has some big time players at key positions. North Central has big time players at seemingly every position. Cortland's offense has shown that they'll score on anybody, but I think the Cardinals control the lines, control the clock, and keep control of the Walnut & Bronze.

North Central 53, Cortland 35.

Riley Zayas, Managing Editor Tru To The Cru, Quick Hits Panelist

This season we've watched North Central roll to its fair share of one-sided victories. The Cardinals have played in 14 games, and 13 of those saw NCC find the end zone on at least six occasions. Only last week, in frigid conditions against an accomplished and experience Wartburg defense, were the Cardinals held below 42 points. And what did we see in that game? We watched NCC trail for the first time all season, when Wartburg scored with 12:17 to go for a 27-26 lead. But it didn't seem to faze the Cardinals in the slightest as they retook the lead and followed with a key fourth-down stop of the Wartburg offense, sealing this return trip to the Stagg Bowl. And while last week's semifinal win saw NCC gain a significant first-half lead only to be forced to come back from a one-point deficit in the fourth, the quarterfinal win at La Crosse saw NCC turn a few big defensive plays into scoring opportunities, as the Cardinals gained separation before halftime. Point being, we've watched NCC win in plenty of different situations so far this season; on the road, at home, defending a lead, avenging a deficit. And the Cardinals are 14-0 for a reason. You could make a similar point about Cortland, who displayed exceptional late-game offensive execution against Grove City, but also showed how key a strong defensive start can be to a team's confidence in last week's dominant win at Randolph-Macon. Having seen these teams truly battle-tested in various situations through this postseason, I fully anticipate a competitive, closely-contested matchup in Salem. Points are likely to come in bunches with high-octane offenses on both sides. Ultimately, NCC has been here before. They've played in each of the last four Stagg Bowls. They know what it takes to win, because for many on the roster, that championship feeling was experienced just last season. And if anything, it should give NCC some added poise and confidence coming out of the gate. The first quarter is going to be incredibly key when it comes to setting the tone, and that goes for both teams in all three facets of the game. But I think at some point in the second half, NCC will be able to gain breathing room as the defense closes out the Cardinals' second-straight national title.

North Central 45, Cortland 34.

Bobby Comstock, Jr. , 18-year play by play announcer of the Red Dragon Sports Network

35. Keep this number in your head for now.

It's as it should be-two teams with similar stat lines playing for the grand prize. North Central has a mobile quarterback, so does Cortland. North Central has a stable of talented running backs that make contributions, so does Cortland. North Central has a talented offensive line that protects their quarterback, as does Cortland. North Central's special teams have contributed to their offensive output, so has the Red Dragons’ special teams. Both teams have lit up the scoreboard on multiple occasions this season. Both teams have a regular season "trophy game." It goes on.

Sure, there are some interesting matchup stats. North Central's sack total, their very efficient passing game, and they've run all over opponents this season and so on. It comes down to a couple things on the field: Cortland must find a way to make North Central one-dimensional by stopping their running game and The Cardinals must contain Cortland QB Zac Boyes, who may have more ways to beat an opposing defense than North Central is used to seeing.

Then there's the expectation factor. All of the pressure is on North Central. They've been here, done this and know what it takes. Cortland is here for the first time. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain. Their offense is playing with a flow right now and their defense may be peaking at just the right time.

Finally, the number 35. Cortland is 11-1 in games they scored at least 35 points this season. The one loss came on the final play against a talented team in Susquehanna and they are 2-0 in games they don't reach that mark, both playoff wins.

The Cardinals will put some points on the board for sure. However, if Cortland can limit the North Central ground assault and reach above the magic number 35, there may be a celebration to be had in the Crown City.

Cortland 38 North Central 36.

Brett Segala, Cortland quarterback, 2016-2019, two-time All-Empire 8 honoree

When looking at this matchup, there truly is not much of a difference in the numbers. Two prolific offenses, defenses that are making key plays down this playoff stretch and special teams units that are turning regular moments into spectacular plays. Two of Division III’s best QBs face off in what has the makings of being an absolute classic. Boyes and Lehnen are very similar. Accurate, poised, athletic. So I don’t believe that this game comes down to those two guys. I believe it is a question of which defense can make a key stop in the second half. Nick Lardaro, Jack Winey and the Cortland defense showed up last week with a chip on their shoulder ready to prove something and they did. Can they keep the momentum vs the possible Gagliardi Trophy winner? Zack Orr came up with a huge INT in the 4th quarter against Wartburg in the semifinal, can he and the North Central defense slow down Boyes and Company? A battle between a national powerhouse and a first time Stagg Bowl participant. No question about it, I’m riding with my alma mater and Coach Fitz on Friday night. Paint it CORTLAND Red!

Cortland 42 North Central 38.

Andy Jachim, play-by-play announcer for North Central Football on WONC

In the Cardinal’s fourth straight title game, they’ll look to bring the Walnut and Bronze back to Naperville for the third time in four seasons. The Cardinal offense had their biggest test of the season with Wartburg’s stout defensive unit in Waverly last week. The Knights' defense was the best I have seen in person in my two years covering the Cards. Despite a rocky third quarter, Luke Lehnen and the offense found a way to execute down the stretch when it mattered the most. Cortland’s offense has been no joke either. Despite only playing one home game all postseason long, they have also found a way to put up big numbers against some solid defenses as well. Zac Boyes has been fantastic this season, being an easy selection for the Region 2 Offensive Player of the Year. Coming off a three-touchdown performance from last week in the Semi-Final, Boyes will look to try and pick apart the North Central defense in ways that not many have been able to over the past couple of seasons. In the end, I can’t see any offense in the country out-pacing the Cardinals. I also can’t pick against my squad, so I’ll take North Central by two scores.

North Central 33, Cortland 20.

Liam Crotty, North Central placekicker, 2014-2017

Two different stories this past weekend, one where Cortland runs Randolph-Macon off the field in a hurry and one where North Central comes back to beat Wartburg after trailing for the first time all year. Some might think North Central will win big, but I certainly believe we're about to witness a trio of QB/RB/WR for both teams that can light up a scoreboard with video game numbers. Lehnen/Sacco/Hardy and Boyes/Alfano-St. John/Burgess will be a real treat for all of us fans! Watching the semi-final games, I think the keys to victory remain pretty simple.

For the Cardinals they need to involve Hardy/Lombardi often in the pass game, pound the rock with their stable of backs as they have all season long and limit turnovers as Cortland will try to find ways to slow down NCC's weapons. Defensively, NCC has to create turnovers and put the Red Dragon offense in uncomfortable 3rd and longs as much as possible, a late interception and back-to-back 4th down stops made the difference in the 2nd half against Wartburg. This game could very well be a track meet if both offenses have their way like they've played the last couple of games, but ultimately December Football comes down to winning the turnover battle and making the plays when they matter most. Cortland will make plays, but I believe the Cardinals will prove too much.

North Central 49, Cortland 35.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!