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| Last year, Randolph-Macon and Cortland squared off in a tight first-round game. 2022 d3photography.com photo by Mike Atherton |
Twenty-eight teams have been dropped from the pack and just four remain on the road to Salem and Stagg Bowl L. North Central has more semifinal appearances (4) than the rest of the field combined (1). Wartburg owns the other semifinal appearance and will take its shot at the defending champions at home in their quest to reach the national championship game. The other two semifinalists faced off in the first round in last year's tournament, but both have elevated to new program heights one year later. Cortland or Randolph-Macon will make more program history on Saturday. Our panel of experts previews the semifinals below and predicts which two teams we'll see at Salem Stadium next Friday night.
Our playoff panel is our regular crew of Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas. We're excited to have Around The Nation originator and longtime Division III guru Keith McMillan joining us again this season on the Quick Hits panel throughout the playoffs.
— Greg Thomas
Cortland at Randolph-Macon, 12 p.m. EST, ESPN+
Greg's take: 
No matter what happens in this game, both of these teams have already won. Both have set program records for wins, both have advanced to the semifinal for the first time in program history. The magic carpet ride can only continue for one team, however. Both offenses feature big play potential. From Cortland, we see it most with big pass plays triggered by Zac Boyes and his favorite targets: JJ Laap and Cole Burgess. The Yellow Jackets rattled off several long runs in last week’s win at Johns Hopkins. Mitchell Johnson was the headliner last week, but Randolph-Macon can go to any of four running backs to do their damage. Both teams also feature complementary pieces on offense. Cortland’s Jaden Alfanostjohn rushed for nearly 200 yards in last week’s win at Alma while Drew Campanale has been one of the most accurate and efficient passers in the division over the last two years. Both defenses will be challenged by these dynamic offenses.
These teams played each other in a close, back and forth game in last year’s tournament. Both teams have played those style of games in this tournament. I expect this one to go down to the wire in a game where neither team can pull away and the last team with the ball advances to Salem. Cortland 32, Randolph-Macon 31.
Pat's take:
I think Randolph-Macon has to be at the top of its game to beat Cortland, and this time of year, I'm not sure anyone is 100% healthy. This, of course, is true for both sides. I also feel like Cortland is on a mission this year after the disappointing way in which the 2022 season ended, including a loss at Randolph-Macon in the first round of the playoffs. Whether explicitly stated or not, this group won't have any trouble remembering. I'm going to pull a committee here and ignore the common opponent factor the same way they did when making out this bracket, because Ithaca playing Cortland, its longtime archrival, isn't the same as Ithaca playing a road playoff game on Thanksgiving weekend. Cortland 41, Randolph-Macon 35.
Ryan's take: 
It would make sense to play the Ithaca-common-opponent card here, wouldn't it? Not even a month ago, Cortland had to fend off a second-half surge to keep the Bombers at bay while Macon then handled Ithaca with ease two weeks ago in one of the most lopsided games of the tournament. The thing is, Macon can score, and Cortland feels like they're on the ropes too often when opponents are able to put up points. Cortland has massive offensive firepower, but I don't think their defense will be able to stall Macon long enough to come out ahead.
Randolph-Macon 34, Cortland 27.
Frank's take: Last week's games on this side of the bracket were extraordinary, but we also learned some things beneath the fold. First, the Cortland defense was able to shake the game up at Alma, especially in the second half. Allowing just one TD after the first half scorefest was a big difference-maker. For R-MC, it was clear that the team is weathering injuries on the offensive side of the ball. As a result, I think this game plays out similar to how the Cortland/Alma game played out last week -- lots of offense in spurts, and an eventual ability for the Cortland defense to make enough adjustments to win the game. Cortland 40, Randolph-Macon 34.
Logan's take:
I expected Randolph-Macon to be here. I did not expect Cortland to get past Mount Union, but it turns out they never had to. Instead, they had Alma, and played what looked like one of the most exhausting games I've ever watched. After back-to-back tight games against Endicott and Grove City (and Alma's thriller against Mount Union), it looked like the adrenal dam broke loose. Randolph-Macon had their own excitement against Johns Hopkins last week, but they haven't had the sort of 4 week stretch (including Cortaca) Cortland has. At this point in the season, coaches do a great job managing players' physical load in practice, but it's harder to manage the sort of emotional toll the games can take. In a game where I think the talent margins are super slim, I think the Jackets' have the edge. Their defense isn't going to have the sort of breakdowns Alma did, and they have the star power on offense to match Cortland. Randolph-Macon 42, Cortland 27.
Riley's take:
I have been really impressed by RMC's performances on the defensive end for much of this season. Even last week, while Johns Hopkins turned the corner in the second half, the Yellowjackets held a solid JHU offense to just nine total points in the opening two quarters and shut out Ithaca the week prior. Against Cortland's high-powered offensive attack, that will be key to RMC's effort in this national semifinal. I really like what I've seen from RMC against the pass in these playoffs, and considering what Zac Boyes can do throwing the football for Cortland, that aspect may end up being the most crucial for the Yellow Jackets. With the consistent rushing attack and several different players carrying the ball for RMC, this is an extremely efficient Yellow Jacket offense that should eclipse the 30-point mark once again this week. And it might just be enough to send RMC to the Stagg Bowl a couple hours west of Ashland. Randolph-Macon 33, Cortland 27.
Keith's take:
It's certainly not ideal for Randolph-Macon to be facing a Cortland team coming off a 58-point Saturday -- we interrupt this Quick Hit to report that Zac Boyes has just led the Red Dragons to another score at Alma -- after some leaky defense on the back end and a season-high-by-far 36 points allowed at Johns Hopkins. But beyond that, it isn't hard to talk yourself into the Yellow Jackets: Cortland won at Ithaca 38-28 in Week 11, and Randolph-Macon beat the Bombers 46-0 two weeks later. The Yellow Jackets are at home, where we might see a The Game/Cortaca Jug-size crowd, and they won these teams' first-round matchup last season by pitching a second-half shutout. And, staying on brand here, though the QBs and RBs might be D-III household names after their turn on ESPN+, the defenses intrigue me. Cortland scored just 23 and 25 in Rounds 1-2, and R-MC had 28 in Round 1. Those are the only times this season either team has been held below 35, and if we end up in a game where neither defense can get a stop, then we ask: which team is most likely to stop itself? In three postseason games, Cortland has 19 penalties for 192 yards, fumbled 5 times but only lost one, given up 5 sacks and thrown two INTs. Randolph-Macon has 6 for 50, 1-1, four and two. The Yellow Jackets have only punted three times this postseason and Cortland five, and there isn't much reason to believe either team will start now. I imagine this combined score will be higher than my colleagues' picks, but I'm taking Randolph-Macon 42, Cortland 35 in another semifinal-for-the-ages thriller.
North Central at Wartburg, 3:30 p.m. EST/2:30 CST, ESPN+
Greg's take: 
For about 99 percent of this season, North Central has looked unstoppable. Quite simply in a league of their own. And they still might be. But the quarterfinal round should give us pause on what may have been an assumed romp through to a third North Central national championship. In the quarterfinal against UW-La Crosse, North Central needed the full 60 minutes to put their opponent away and, maybe for the first time this season, showed a hint of vulnerability. Meanwhile, Wartburg stared down an 18-point deficit to an outstanding UW-Whitewater squad and rallied to beat the Warhawks, earning the right to host the program’s first semifinal.
North Central’s offense will hum behind Luke Lehnen and his masterful distribution of the ball to playmakers Joe Sacco and DeAngelo Hardy, all behind the game’s best (by far) offensive line. Wartburg’s defense is as experienced and sound as any that have taken on the North Central challenge. They will make North Central earn their points, but make no mistake- North Central’s points will come. How well Nile McLaughlin and Hunter Clasen can take advantage of a Cardinal defense that is definitely dinged up right now will tell the tale. Ultimately, I just can’t see North Central not being able to outscore any opponent, but the outcome of this game is not anywhere near as fait accompli as most will have assumed. North Central 42, Wartburg 35.
Pat's take: UW-La Crosse fans think the true national championship game was played last week. They're wrong. Wartburg and North Central fans think it is being played in Waverly on Saturday. Now, I'm not ready to automatically crown them before seeing them take the field on a Friday night in Salem, Virginia, but it's no doubt, at the moment, anyway, that the two strongest teams are going to be playing here, in this game. Finding a way to stop all the North Central weapons, incluing an amazing offensive line, is going to take a lot of doing on Wartburg's part. UW-La Crosse did make a few stops on North Central, and I think Wartburg is capable of making another couple beyond that. In order for that to be enough, however, Wartburg is going to have to play amazingly offensively and score almost every time down the field. The odds of that happening aren't as good. I think North Central gets enough done here to advance: North Central 42, Wartburg 31.
Ryan's take:
For being perhaps the two best teams left standing, I think North Central is still shoulders above Wartburg and everyone else and wins this one by a more comfortable margin than the game on the other half of the bracket. Nine North Central athletes were chosen for first-team All-Region, and while Wartburg certainly isn't shut out of high honors as well, the Cardinals are superiorly stacked to continue performing in peak condition this late into the season.
North Central 42, Wartburg 30.
Frank's take: What we learned last week is that North Central does have some vulnerabilities on defense. This presented itself slightly in other higher-profile games this season, but the La Crosse game magnified it a bit more. Yet, until a team can figure out how to dismantle the NCC offense, they aren't going to be losing a game this year. While I applaud the job the Wartburg defense has done this season, I don't see them able to keep NCC out of the end zone repeatedly. As a result, while I expect a somewhat close game, North Central will pull away in the second half and win this game. North Central 41, Wartburg 30.
Logan's take: Do I pick with my head or my heart? My head, or rather the predictive computer model I've spent the last decade tweaking, thinks this should be a 45-28ish game in favor of North Central. They have the best offense in the history of my model. Luke Lehnen is the most efficient quarterback in the history of the NCAA. Joe Sacco is the second most efficient running back in the country. DeAngelo Hardy may be the best wide receiver in the country. Coaches I respect have told me they have the best offensive line they've ever seen. And yet... One the other side of the ball Wartburg has Owen Grover (back-to-back Region 5 Defensive MVP), Jordan Downing (Wartburg's all-time sack leader), Parker Rochford (14 INTs & 4 TDs the last two years), and I could go on. If there's any defense in the country that can turn North Central's track race and turn it into a (figurative) fist fight, it's Wartburg. Big time players make big time plays in big time games. Wartburg 45, North Central 42.
Riley's take:
North Central has certainly looked sharp and is the national title favorite for a reason. But we're in the national semifinals. Everyone is really, really good. And watching the way Wartburg's defense matched up against UW-Whitewater a week ago, the Knights may be one of the few teams in the country who can slow down this NCC offensive attack for multiple quarters. That's what this game will come down to. In past games, NCC has leveraged favorable starting field position or opponent turnovers into points and high-scoring quarters, pulling away by scoring quickly and often. But if Wartburg can force NCC into longer possessions, and thus limit the Cardinals' total number of possessions, there is certainly a strong case for the Knights to earn a trip to the Stagg Bowl. Led by Gagliardi finalist Owen Grover at linebacker, Wartburg has quality experience on the defensive side that will serve the Knights well in this situation, with plenty of hype and attention on the matchup. Remember, Wartburg was in this same position last year, and fell narrowly to Mount Union in Alliance. This time around, the Knights are at home, and Wartburg is one of those places that has a true home-field advantage. NCC traveled well a week ago, however, so I don't expect the location of the game to play into it all that much. But getting one more chance to play in front of its fans and in a familiar setting certainly should help Wartburg's confidence coming out of the gate. Wartburg 36, North Central 34.
Keith's take:
For all the angst from North Central's loudest tweeters about going on the road, we've glazed over an evident truth: Wartburg deserves to be playing at home this week. In a world where we can pretend the money doesn't have to come from somewhere, Wartburg and NCC could be hosting Cortland and R-MC. Alas, here in reality, we ought not coronate North Central so automatically. These Knights have won 28 of their past 29 games against the likes of UW-Whitewater, UW-La Crosse, St. John's, Bethel, Aurora, Central and Coe, and were a miracle Mount Union fourth quarter from meeting NCC in last year's Stagg Bowl. If North Central wasn't in the midst of a more impressive run -- 52-1 since mid-October 2019, and looking to play its fourth straight Stagg Bowl in its fourth location -- we might be looking at this as a semifinal-worthy clash of No. 1 vs. No. 3. Considering that North Central needed a 14-point swing on an goal-line-punchout-turned-
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