The challenge for UW-La Crosse only gets stiffer this week. UW-La Crosse athletics photo

After an exhiliirating second round, our Quick Hits crew is back this week to preview each of the four quarterfinal games. Who do we think will return to the national semifinals? Who do we think will reach the final four for the first time? Our panel picks winners, scores, and offers their insight on each game as the season heads into December. 

Our playoff panel is our regular crew of Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas. We're excited to have Around The Nation originator and longtime Division III guru Keith McMillan joining us again this season on the Quick Hits panel throughout the playoffs.

— Greg Thomas

North Central at UW-La Crosse

	Greg's take: In almost any other time or any other place in Division III tournament history, this UW-La Crosse team might be a favorite to win a national championship.  But in this moment, North Central just has too much to handle.  I expect Keyser Helterbrand to cause problems for the Cardinal defense, but can any offense find enough success to keep pace with North Central’s 62.8 ppg offense?  This season’s results suggest that the Cardinals are just going to run away from their opponents, no matter who they might be.  I’ll take the Cardinals to move on, but n their closest game of the year to date. North Central 53, UW-La Crosse 25.
	Pat's take: This is more than a speed bump on the way to Salem, but North Central hasn't even been slowed so far, so it's hard to imagine now. I think UW-La Crosse will probably score some points, but some of them will come late in the game after it's decided. North Central 56, UW-La Crosse 31.
	Ryan's take: Whether on offense or defense, forcing turnovers or putting up points, North Central excels all across the board. It's almost hard to fathom teams putting up a lot of points against UW-L, but North Central is a team that can deliver in this respect. And I'm suspecting that my margin for this game is going to be a lot wider than most of my colleagues' picks. North Central 45, UW-La Crosse 27.
	Frank's take: After watching the Trinity/NCC game in person last weekend, it became clear to me that North Central is in a class of their own this season. That’s no slight to UWL, who very much exceeded my expectations this season, but I can’t see UWL winning this game unless NCC makes several unforced errors — which I don’t anticipate here. North Central 40, UW-La Crosse 20.
	Logan's take: UW-La Crosse has played many different types of games against top competition this year. They've held onto leads while their opponent mounted a comeback, they've had their own comebacks, they've gone back & forth, they've been high scoring, and been low scoring. One thing that is in common is that there seems to be a short stretch in each game where their offense hits a lull, and their opponent gets a couple scores in quick succession.  All of North Central's games have gone the same way. All gas until their opponent is barely visible in the rearview mirror. I don't think UWL has enough in the tank to catch up. North Central 59, UW-La Crosse 35.
	Riley's take: North Central won't need to look far for motivation in this one. The defending national champions are on the road for the third round, rather than back in Naperville, and with the way NCC has played in its first two games of these playoffs, dominating against Belhaven and Trinity, it seems nothing is stopping the Cardinals. UWL will certainly contend, but NCC is playing on another level right now. North Central 42, UW-La Crosse 30.
	Keith's take: UW-La Crosse has won games every which way this season, scoring 56 against a playoff team, holding the opponent to a single score, winning on the road as time runs out, beating teams from NAIA and Division II. So why are we just assuming a program with championship pedigree playing at home will get bludgeoned? Mostly because North Central is elite at every level of its offense, has been held below 49 just once this season, back in Week 1. Aside from getting run off the field in the second half of the 2021 Stagg Bowl, NCC hasn't been in danger of losing a game since mid-2019. It might seem like CB Julian Bell (second in tackles) and WR DeAngelo Hardy (18 TD catches) have been around forever, since they had starring roles in North Central's first and second national championships. For the Cardinals to continue their quest for a third, dual-threat QB Luke Lehnen and the offensive line need only to do what they normally do. Forcing the defending champs to go on the road likely only locked them in for a focused week of practice, and even if La Crosse plays its best game and this becomes the quarterfinals' best game, it'd take a sloppy, C- effort for North Central to stumble. North Central 49, UW-La Crosse 34.

UW-Whitewater at Wartburg

	Greg's take: I alluded to this on bonus ATN podcast No. 346 yesterday, but Wartburg presents, to me, a lot like Wheaton but with a slightly better defense.  Whitewater’s path to victory lies with establishing Tamir Thomas in the run game, and being able to pick their spots with the pass game.  Wartburg has been excellent in the last two seasons creating takeaways via the interception, so Whitewater dictating when the ball goes in the air is important.  I think these are two very evenly matched teams and I expect a game every bit as good as the 2014 quarterfinal classic between these two with Wartburg advancing by the narrowest of margins. Wartburg 25, UW-Whitewater 24.
	Pat's take: Toughest call here. Of all the possibilities, this seems like one. A defensive battle is in the offing. Whitewater has played so many good teams that I think that gives them the edge. UW-Whitewater 27, Wartburg 24.
	Ryan's take: Seeing the "pound the rock" offense of the Warhawks line up against the nation's top rushing defense is going to be fun. But something has to give, right? I doubt either team breaks, but UW-W is more likely to bend, and that will give the Wartburg offense all of the opportunity it needs to open this one up in the second half and win the bracket. Wartburg 34, UW-Whitewater 24.
	Frank's take: Low scoring, you say? Well, Whitewater has held opponents to less than 20 points this season, while Wartburg has held opponents to just over 10. Wartburg’s offense has to get a rhythm early in this game to control time of possession and the tone of the game — otherwise, this prediction might be very wrong. Yet, Wartburg has been getting better and better each week. Wartburg 17, UW-Whitewater 10.
	Logan's take: I think this will probably be the closest game of the weekend, and it's the only one where I'm bucking my model's projection. I think my model has UWW pretty well-calibrated, given the number of quality opponents they've played this year, but I think Wartburg's a little underrated given how quickly they rotate reserves into games. Last week, the starters were out of the game before I was able to make my way back to my seat after halftime. Looking at the teams who have given Wartburg's defense fits the last few years, it's been teams who throw it all over. UWW will be their most physical opponent, but I think in a matchup of strength vs. strength, Wartburg's fresh legs and experience win the day. Wartburg 30, UW-Whitewater 28.
	Riley's take: This is one that I fully expect will have one of those "must-see" finishes. This is a game that will be won in the trenches, especially with both defensive lines displaying so much physicality up front. Ultimately, I think Wartburg's defense continues shutting down the run, as it has in its last two games (or at least significantly slows down Tamir Thomas), and edges UW-Whitewater on a late fourth-quarter drive. Wartburg 27, UW-Whitewater 23.
	Keith's take: Nobody has played a more week-in, week-out challenging schedule than this UW-Whitewater team. Certainly this season, perhaps in the history of Division III. The Warhawks are 11-1 having faced nine teams with winning records, the only blemish a three-point loss to rival UW-La Crosse, which also has a game on Saturday. If ever that would matter, it's now, when the Warhawks head to Waverly to face Wartburg in perhaps the most consequential home game in the Knights' storied history. In playoff wins against Bethel and Wheaton, 9 of UW-Whitewater's 13 touchdowns have been at least 19 yards, and 5 have gone for at least 49. Wartburg has been one of the nation's best defenses all season -- only four teams have done better than their 3.65 yards allowed per play -- but the Warhawks' big-play capability with Tommy Coates and Tamir Thomas will allow them to spring the upset. UW-Whitewater 27, Wartburg 20.

Cortland at Alma

	Greg's take: This game should be a wildly entertaining matchup of hyper-aggressive offenses that hunt big plays as well as anybody in the division. Of the top six teams in the division in pass yards per attempt, five are still alive in this tournament.  We can be sure that Alma and Cortland will both push the ball downfield and land the big plays that have been characteristic of both offenses. If you’re not in Alma, grab some popcorn at noon, kick back, and watch starting quarterbacks Carter St. John and Zac Boyes cook.  This game may come down to one late defensive stop and after last week’s titanic effort, it’s hard not to go with the Scots to get that stop. Alma 41, Cortland 32.
	Pat's take: Epic battle which people will talk about for years in which the wind looks like it will be negligible. Perfect day for offense and the day will probably come down to one play in either direction. Alma 38, Cortland 35.
	Ryan's take: It's not just that Alma took down a Purple Power last week, it's also that Cortland feels like they've been escaping their postseason games by the skin of their teeth. Alma has so much momentum now, with both the offense and the defense clicking. Just like so many of the Scots' games this season, I think this will be a comfortable-margin victory. Alma 31, Cortland 17.
	Frank's take: I was originally going to pick Cortland in this game until I looked at the turnover margin for the teams this season. Alma has the best margin of teams remaining (+27). Every other aspect of the “Tale of the Tape” in this game is similar. Yet, Cortland’s +11 margin tells me that Alma might be able to secure more possessions and, as a result, points, for the win. Alma 35, Cortland 24.
	Logan's take: How much should we react to one or two weeks of games? Alma upset the machine on the road last week - the biggest win in their program's history. A legitimately amazing result, but also (understandably) their best performance of the year. On the flip side, Cortland was lights out for much of the season, with the exception of one terrible quarter vs. Susquehanna. But now they've had two of their three worst performances, in terms of opponent-adjusted MOV, in the last two weeks. Given their youthfulness, I think it's fair to say that Alma's emergence the last few weeks has less to do with the natural ups & downs of a season, and more to do with a young roster taking the strides you need to win in the playoffs. Alma 35, Cortland 31.
	Riley's take: This could turn into an offensive shootout considering both of these teams are averaging above 45 points per game and have high-powered passing attacks that have greatly contributed to big victories time and time again up to this point. Alma brings plenty of momentum after shocking Mount Union in Alliance a week ago, and it will be the defensive effort that wins the Scots this game, especially in the case that multiple turnovers are forced and the ball gets handed back to Carter St. John and Alma offense. Alma 38, Cortland 34.
	Keith's take: A team from the Northeast hasn't won a Stagg Bowl since 1991, or been since Rowan in 1999, and Cortland has a gaping pathway to Salem big enough for Jaden AlfanoStJohn to run through. There's no Purple Power standing in the way, but there is the matter of traveling from New York to Michigan to face the team led by that other St. John, which knocked off a Purple Power. While Cortland was scoring with 83 seconds left and going for two to advance, Alma was speed-racing to 24 fourth-quarter points at Mount Union, and that's instructive here, because The Fighting Kilts can get the Red Dragons, er, kilt, at any point in the game. Cortland might need to score a lot to win, but it is built to do so -- 45.7 points per game this season to Alma's 47.3. The top-10 offenses, both overall and in passing efficiency, have been kept a little more under wraps in the postseason, so if we're looking for a differentiator, it's this: Alma led the nation in turnover differential this season, and in two playoff games it has 7 sacks, 3 interceptions and a fumble recovered and returned for a touchdown. Cortland had 9 penalties and a lost fumble in Round 1 against Endicott, and threw two interceptions last week; it'll need a clean game to keep the East's hopes alive. Alma 35, Cortland 27.

 Randolph-Macon at Johns Hopkins

	Greg's take: Johns Hopkins and Randolph-Macon is the third quarterfinal that I view as a toss up. Randolph-Macon has statistical advantages on both sides of the ball. My own adjustments are less scientific than Logan’s but given differences in schedule, these teams look fairly even to me. The Yellow Jackets, minus a surprisingly close game in the first round, has been consistently dominant all year. Hopkins on the other hand, has been mostly dominant, but has had moments where they struggle to pull away from teams that I would expect them to run away and hide from.  I expect a close game in Baltimore with the Yellow Jackets taking control in the second half to continue their historic season into the national semifinals.  Randolph-Macon 28, Johns Hopkins 21.
	Pat's take: Another one that's a toss-up and is totally dependent on seeing the same Randolph-Macon two weeks in a row. But strength and skill up front generally is not subject to a slump or letdown. Believe Johns Hopkins has improved quite a bit from its opener against Ithaca, and JHU also faced Ithaca more at full strength, but I still think the Yellow Jackets pull this out. Randolph-Macon 27, Johns Hopkins 21.
	Ryan's take: I had Hopkins as my pick for this bracket from the beginning, and I think what sets them apart from Macon is the consistency. Macon has shown us two different teams in the first two rounds: The first barely edged out Christopher Newport but the second obliterated Ithaca. I hope that the Round 2 team shows up. It will make for a lot more excitement on Saturday. Johns Hopkins 28, Randolph-Macon 27.
	Frank's take: Both teams have great offenses (470+ yards per game for JHU, 500 yards per game for RMC), but the RMC defense is the difference-maker here for me. The turnover margin of +17 (vs. +2 for JHU) and the yardage allowed by RMC (221 yards per game vs. 315 yards) tell me that Hopkins will struggle at times in this game to move the ball. Randolph-Macon 37, Johns Hopkins 21.
	Logan's take: Randolph-Macon has gone from their worst performance of the season in the first round, to their best performance of the season a week ago. Johns Hopkins has had two very nice results in the playoffs, but nothing on the level of 46-bagel against Ithaca. Outside those results, if you look at the full season's body of work, both teams look extremely equal on paper, but the Jacket's highs have been higher than the Jays have been, and I'm still a big believer in Drew Campanale and the physicality of R-MC. I'm sticking with my pick at the start of the playoffs for Randolph-Macon to advance. Randolph-Macon 35, Johns Hopkins 31.
	Riley's take: R-MC might have the best rushing attack of these remaining eight teams, led by Nick Hale, who has spearheaded the run game in each of the last two weeks. But JHU's defense will be ready. Defense is going to decide the winner in this one, and against both WestConn and Union, the Blue Jay defensive front has noticeably limited the effectiveness of the opposing rushing attack. I expect a similar performance against R-MC. Johns Hopkins 23, Randolph-Macon 16
	Keith's take: Johns Hopkins, a 2018 semifinalist and 2019 quarterfinalist, is the most-accomplished program left on this side of the bracket, and is the conventional-wisdom pick to face a Midwestern team in the Stagg Bowl. But games aren't won on past accomplishments -- speed, brute strength in the trenches and precision tend to tilt the scales this deep in the Division III playoffs. And Randolph-Macon has at least two of three -- it is top-10 nationally in everything from fewest penalties (less than 3 per game for 30 yards) to third- and fourth-down conversions to run defense. And they should be, given that the competition wasn't too stiff. But that logic goes out the window when we consider the Yellow Jackets' 46-point win against Ithaca, the best team on its schedule and one the Blue Jays beat by a mere 10 early in the season. The path for a Hopkins win is to score early, load up against the run and get Macon out of its preferred style. But the Jackets can hit a big pass play when needed, and can defend any style of offense. At just 2.5 hours away, with R-MC planning a road-team tailgate, home-field advantage at Homewood might not matter much either. Randolph-Macon 28, Johns Hopkins 21.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!