/notables/2023/11/quick-hits-week11

Quick Hits: Our Week 11 predictions

On Veterans Day, Merchant Marine and Coast Guard take the field in their annual rivalry game, the Secretaries' Cup.
Merchant Marine athletics photo
 

The regular season concludes with Pool A bids to be won, rivalry games to be played, and sometimes both at the same time. How many teams can win the NJAC, and which highly ranked team won't be moving on to the postseason? Our panel is back to preview all of our Week 11 action and get you ready for Selection Sunday. 

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: The Cortaca Jug.  This is not one of the nine games with winner takes all stakes, but this is the one game this week featuring two ranked teams. This is also the first time the Cortaca Jug has been played at Ithaca since 2017.  And also, most definitely, The Monon Bell Classic.
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Opening Drive of the Week: No. 1 North Central at Augustana, just long enough to make sure Luke Lehnen takes snaps. But then go back to the Game of the Week we were watching all along: the Cortaca Jug game.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: The Monon Bell Classic. Yeah, I know it's a homer pick, but it's of particular interest this year because the winner goes to the playoffs and the loser ... likely hangs out on the couch for the winter. It's hard to pass up one of the most storied Division III rivalries when postseason hopes are on the line.
Frank's take: RPI at Union. The Dutchman’s Shoes game has A LOT on the line. RPI is trying to salvage a high-profile ECAC Bowl game with a win, while Union is trying to protect what looks like a good shot at a Pool C playoff bid. Bubble teams are watching this game closely since a Union loss might open up a spot for a team like Muhlenberg or River Falls or Hope.
Logan's take: Cortaca. I don't know that much needs to be said to justify this pick. These two have already clinched their conferences' AQs, but this game still has great stakes. After seeing Cortland dismantle Brockport last week, I think Cortland is the more complete team across the board, and they flip the script from last season, winning convincingly.
Riley's take: No. 15 Cortland at No. 14 Ithaca. Not sure it gets any bigger than Cortaca Jug, especially when both teams are ranked inside the Top 15. After watching Cortland's dominance against Brockport, I'm interested to see how the Red Dragon offensive attack fares against Ithaca's top-tier defense, which allows just 12 points per game. That is the matchup to key an eye on, and with the emotion and intensity surrounding this annual contest, it is a "must-see" battle on Saturday.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: No. 11 UW-River Falls. This looks like a tough one for the Falcons.  Rebounding after a dramatic loss last week to La Crosse, likely having NCAA tournament hopes dashed, and having to roll out to Oshkosh for Senior Day.  Kobe Berghammer’s Senior Day.  If the Falcons aren’t in the right headspace for this one, which would be understandable, the Titans could spring the surprise.
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: No. 8 Linfield. Everyone associated with Linfield has thought all year that Whitworth is really good, so this is a possibility.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: No. 24 Delaware Valley. Sorry Aggies. I know you've been getting picked on a bit this year in Quick Hits, but going up against Widener seems poised to be one of the tighter matchups of the week.
Frank's take: None. It’s been that sort of season where this seems like the right answer more often than not. I don’t see any tempting flyers this week at all.
Logan's take: Several candidates with around a 2-in-3 chance of winning this week–UWRF vs UWO, SJU vs. Concordia, Alma vs. Albion, Union vs. RPI–but I'm going to go with Linfield against Whitworth. I'm somewhat surprised Whitworth isn't getting more love in the poll, but I also get it. When you're on the D-III island, you have to prove it in the playoffs. And to get there, the Pirates need a win this week.
Riley's take: No. 16 Alma. The Scots travel this week to Albion in a huge MIAA showdown. After taking consecutive 7-point losses to Hope and Trine, Albion seems to be back on track and heads into this game with momentum. If Albion QB Luke Lovell produces another big performance, an upset could be in the cards.

Who will be the highest ranked team (Top 25) to miss the tournament?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: I’ve boxed myself into a corner here.  If River Falls goes down as I just said might happen, that’s going to leave John Carroll as the highest ranked team to miss the tournament.
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: In our Sunday afternoon poll, if Linfield loses, UW-River Falls would be the highest ranked team to not make the tournament.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: UW-River Falls. Close losses against great WIAC teams and a win over a traditional powerhouse that had a down year. It makes for a solid ranking but not very sexy criteria for the postseason committee.
Frank's take: No. 11 UW-River Falls. If UMHB had been a ranked team, that Week 1 win for UWRF would have been enough to power the Falcons to a Pool C bid. Instead, that win has less potency, and their two losses likely have them on the outside looking in this season.
Logan's take: UW-River Falls. I have said on the platform formerly known as X that I can talk myself into UWRF getting in if UWP wins and Bethel & SJU loses, and UWP becomes a RRO, but my model disagreed, and that proposition is a long shot anyways.
Riley's take: No. 11 UW-River Falls. The Falcons are a very strong team this year. But the WIAC is a deep conference, and losses to Whitewater and La Crosse hurt their chances at claiming that WIAC title. It also may have eliminated them from the Pool C conversation, especially because UMHB was not regionally ranked. If UMHB ends up ranked, I think this changes quite a bit, but the Crusaders are not, which means UWRF loses out on a valuable RRO win. 

 

Which under the radar game are you following?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: Christopher Newport at TCNJ. There’s so much on the line in this Friday night NJAC contest. The Captains can win their first NJAC title outright by defeating TCNJ. However, if TCNJ wins, the Lions will run their win streak to five games which would be the longest for TCNJ since their 2007 playoff season. It would also trigger a series of events on Friday night that could well end with the NJAC in a five way tie for first place.
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Franklin at Hanover. The Victory Bell won't have a conference title on the line this year, but I don't think the rivalry will be particularly less intense because of it.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Lewis & Clark at Willamette. Why play a rival once in a season when you can meet them on the gridiron twice? That's what's happening for 2023 in The Wagon Wheel game, where Willamette is likely to be looking to put the memory of Week 2's fourth quarter collapse in its rear-view mirror. 
Frank's take: Central at Simpson. So, North Central fans were alarmed this week when the Cardinals were ranked behind Wartburg. Part of this is based on both Central and Coe being ranked in Region 5. If Simpson pulls off the upset at home, the ability to keep Wartburg above North Central becomes less appealing, as North Central’s SoS number will jump after their Augustana game Saturday.
Logan's take: Washington & Lee at Shenandoah. There's not much in the way of playoff implications or bowl games (W&L isn't getting a Pool C, and they're already locked in to a Chesapeake Bay Bowl), but this game is still going to feature two quality teams squaring off in a close matchup. Shenandoah has played some close games against quality opponents, but could really use a signature win going into the offseason.
Riley's take: Plymouth State at Mass-Dartmouth. For a three-way tie to happen in the MASCAC, this is a game that UMD needs to win. And UMD is the favorite. But Plymouth State has won four straight and seems to be improving every week. I think Plymouth State surprises some people and makes this a game, at least for the first three quarters. And seeing a three-way tie atop the MASCAC when Saturday's games are said and done would add just a little more chaos to what already could be an interesting weekend. Of course, that is as long as Bridgewater State wins, too.

 

How many regions will be represented in Pool C?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: Barring an upset on the MIAC championship weekend undercard, t’s looking like three with two from Region 6, one from Region 5, and one from either of Region 2 or 4.
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Three.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Three -- Regions 2, 5, and 6 (A little disclaimer: Because of time constraints this week, I'm filing this before the Regional Rankings have even come out, so my picks could be blown before Saturday even arrives!).
Frank's take: 3. I have UW-Whitewater (R6), Union (R2), St. John’s (R6), and Wheaton (R5) currently.
Logan's take: Three. Regions 6 (UWW, SJU), 5 (Wheaton), and either 2 or 4 (Union/Hope)
Riley's take: Three. Region 6 sends two and Regions 2 and 5 each send one.

 

It’s Cup Stack! List the Secretary’s Cup, Keystone Cup, and Mercer County Cup games from highest score margin to lowest.

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: I’m liking Grove City to win big in the Mercer County Cup, followed by a more moderate USMMA win in the Secretaries' Cup, and another low scoring, close encounter for Delaware Valley in the Keystone Cup.
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Mercer, Keystone, Secretaries' Cup.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Mercer County Cup, Secretaries' Cup, Keystone Cup.
Frank's take: Mercer County Cup (GCC by 35 over Thiel). Secretaries' Cup (USMMA by 28 over USCGA). Keystone Cup (Delaware Valley by 21 over Widener).
Logan's take: Mercer County, Keystone, Secretaries.
Riley's take: The Mercer County Cup belongs in the top spot, as Grove City should have its way in that one. The Keystone Cup is second, as I expect Delaware Valley and Widener to stay competitive within two scores for most of the game. And then I think the Secretaries' Cup comes down to the wire, with the lowest scoring margin. 

Got picks? Put them in the comments!

Dec. 15: All times Eastern
Final
Cortland 38, at North Central (Ill.) 37
@ Salem, Virginia
Video Box Score Recap Photos
Dec. 9: All times Eastern
Final
North Central (Ill.) 34, at Wartburg 27
Box Score Recap
Final
Cortland 49, at Randolph-Macon 14
Box Score Recap Recap Recap Photos
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