Muhlenberg athletics photo by Gabby Mattei

You don't have to squint too hard now to see the end of the regular season approaching. Week 9 gives us a bounty of big games. De facto title games in several conferences this week, notably in the ASC and Centennial. We've also got our eye on a couple of potential traps ahead of championship deciding games next week. Our panel of experts is also looking ahead to regional rankings, and checking in on the four most prolific offensive players in the division in this week's Quick Hits. 

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: No. 23 Mary Hardin-Baylor at No. 20 Hardin-Simmons. Yes, massive game in the Centennial with higher ranked teams, but this ASC matchup looks like a de facto title game and here’s some other tidbits that spice this up. UMHB is on a four game heater and appears settled in after their tough start. Gaylon Glynn is back at QB for HSU and they looked great last week. UMHB’s postseason hopes are definitely on the line in this one, HSU’s postseason hopes are probably on the line. This one has Texas-sized stakes (not steaks) and will be a must-watch on Saturday.
	Pat's take: No. 8 Johns Hopkins at No. 21 Muhlenberg. Muhlenberg needs this game for its playoff hopes, since its strength of schedule is pretty ordinary, something that probably won't fly with the lack of at-large bids. It's been a good matchup for years and hopefully this won't be any different.
	Ryan's take: No. 8 Johns Hopkins at No. 21 Muhlenberg. We have to go back to 2017 to find the last time these teams were undefeated when they met in conference play, and back then, it was MUCH earlier in the season. After a long Hopkins win streak, this game has become even more engaging in recent years, and this will be important to elevate the winner's profile come playoff time.
	Frank's take: No. 8 Johns Hopkins at No. 21 Muhlenberg. This isn’t just a battle of undefeated teams looking for a conference title. This is also a key Region 2 game as far as Regional Rankings go. JHU has a quality win vs. Ithaca this season — a common opponent with Liberty League teams that might be ranked. If Muhlenberg wins, it could block Liberty League teams from ever being considered by the national committee.
	Logan's take: This is a great week of games, but I think the best matchup is No. 8 Johns Hopkins at No. 21 Muhlenberg. Both teams have been mostly dominant this season, where even their close games weren't as close as the final score. Seems crazy to think that JHU could have graduated Ryan Stevens and his top two receiving targets, and gotten more productive throwing the ball, but that's exactly what's happened. The Jays also rank 5th nationally in sack rate, taking opposing QBs to the ground on 12% of their dropbacks, which they'll need to rely on to stop Muhlenberg's Joe Repetti, who's also the Mule's leading rusher.
	Riley's take: No. 8 Johns Hopkins at No. 21 Muhlenberg. The stakes are high in Allentown as the lone remaining undefeated teams in the Centennial Conference face off. Hearing from players and coaches on both sides, this is often a matchup circled on the calendar at the beginning of the year, and in this case, it is likely to decide who wins the Centennial and secures the AQ. Plus, JHU has not won at Muhlenberg since 2017. Nor have they won consecutive meetings since 2018. But that could very well change on Saturday. Expect a tight finish. Muhlenberg's very efficient, balanced offense will have a top-quality test with Luke Schuermann and the JHU defense on the other side of the ball.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 25 Delaware Valley. It seems crazy to pick against a team on a 50-game conference win streak, but that win streak needed last minute heroics against Lebanon Valley last week to reach the big Five-Oh. The Aggie offense is missing a lot of key pieces and won’t run and hide from anybody. Stevenson has a tremendous opportunity to be both bookends of Del Val’s incredible MAC streak.
	Pat's take: No. 7 UW-River Falls, at UW-Stout. Stout is 3-4 but isn't terrible, and although this game may no longer be the Borgerding Bowl, it's still bordering on a trap game for River Falls, which hosts La Crosse next week.
	Ryan's take: No. 25 Delaware Valley. Neither the Aggies nor Stevenson are powerhouse scoring teams, showing off their best selves when their defenses are clicking. And this one has conference title implications written all over it.
	Frank's take: No. 25 Delaware Valley (vs. Stevenson). Last week, Stevenson got caught looking ahead a bit in a game that was competitive vs. Misericordia. DelVal’s struggles vs. LebVal can’t fully be ignored, and this might be the biggest challenge to “The Streak” in the MAC for the Aggies.
	Logan's take: No. 25 Delaware Valley. I had the Aggies at 17th on my preseason ballot, mostly banking on them to reload after years of dominance in the MAC, but that hasn't happened. They were blown out by Cortland Week 1 and their predictive rating in my model has fallen from #29 in the preseason to #66 this week. Granted, I still think they should be a slight favorite against Stevenson this week, but I have to imagine the Mustangs are ready to buck the Aggies from the top spot in the MAC after a decade on the doorstep.
	Riley's take: No. 25 Delaware Valley. The Aggies avoided defeat at the hands of Lebanon Valley last Saturday, keeping their MAC winning streak alive. But Stevenson might be a tougher test. The Mustangs come into this matchup on a five-game win streak, and their lone loss this season came to Lebanon Valley by seven points in a game concluded with 5:54 left in the fourth quarter due to weather. Stevenson's defensive front does not give up much, and is the No. 1 run defense in the MAC. Considering a good chunk of Delaware Valley's scoring comes on the ground, Stevenson may be positioned for a strong defensive day on the road.

What team boosts its profile ahead of next week’s regional rankings?

	Greg's take: Brockport. The Golden Eagles are lurking in the E8 race, quietly undefeated in conference play with Cortland looming next week. But before a potential E8 championship game, Brockport has a chance to score a key win and boost their 116th ranked SOS this week against Utica.
	Pat's take: Alma, which I expect to see first in the regional rankings in the 4, followed by DePauw, John Carroll, and other teams alphabetically behind them.
	Ryan's take: Randolph-Macon. Beating a currently 6-1 Washington and Lee team will look very good for Macon's OWP (opponent's average winning percentage), which is more heavily weighted than the OOWP, which won't get quite the same boost considering W&L opponents' have overwhelmingly losing records.
	Frank's take: The Winner of Merchant Marine at Springfield. Region 1 is an interesting place this year after the Endicott win vs. Hardin-Simmons. It’s very possible for both of these teams to be ranked this week regardless of the result. That means the winner will have an edge in the rankings order. If Merchant Marine wins but still misses the playoffs, their 9-1 record could be interesting as their SoS climbs from this game with just the Coast Guard game to go.
	Logan's take: Bethel. I'm choosing to think of this question in terms of which team is probably in the Top 10 of the Regional Rankings, but not quite in the Top 7, yet. The Royals will get a boost in a few ways, first, they're going to beat Carleton; second, since Carleton is 6-1 and has an impressive SOS, Bethel's SOS will improve; and third, Carleton would probably be ahead of Bethel if the rankings came out this week, so they'll have the H2H result as a boost. The National Committee chair has explicitly said that his interpretation of results against common opponents should exclude margin of victory, so the fact that Carleton was trounced by SJU and Bethel played them close wouldn't matter.
	Riley's take: Brockport. The Golden Eagles are 6-1, with the lone loss coming by a single point to Susquehanna in Week 2. But they are still looking for that marquee win, and have a good chance to do so against Utica, a fellow E8 team also in the regional rankings discussion. A victory over Utica would increase Brockport's chances of finding its way into the Region 2 rankings next week, and it'd also give Brockport a valuable head-to-head advantage against Utica. Not to mention, it would set up a huge E8 battle between Brockport and Cortland on Nov. 4. And in the case that Cortland wins that matchup, the Red Dragons would then have one more regionally-ranked win, which could factor into hosting in the playoffs and Cortland's regional rank.

Which under the radar game are you following?

	Greg's take: Chapman at Claremont-Mudd-Scripps. In the first leg of this SCIAC Surf Division showdown, Chapman scored their first win of the season with a 20-7 victory in Orange. The Panthers limited the Stags’ star RB Justin Edwards to just 51 yards on 17 carries and returned an interception for a touchdown  C-M-S will need to find some better purchase against Chapman’s suddenly stifling defense to win the return game and sew up a spot in the SCIAC title game.
	Pat's take: Utica at Brockport. Maybe not fully under the radar, this one, but it's a key one especially for Top 25 votes, as well as a leading indicator of what we might expect from Brockport at Cortland in Week 10.
	Ryan's take: Wittenberg at Wabash. This is more "under the radar" on a national scale than it is for me personally. Both Witt and Bash still have paths to the NCAC title and a postseason birth, though Witt less so after their loss last week to DePauw. And for the past 20+ years, only DePauw has been a larger rival than Witterberg in Wabash's eyes.
	Frank's take: Birmingham-Southern at Rhodes. It’s an “under the radar” game I’m watching for the wrong reasons, unfortunately, as this is the first game since BSC learned their potential fate from an Alabama court — a fate that could force the school to shut down after this season. It will be interesting to see if BSC comes out swinging more than ever as a result against a spry Rhodes team.
	Logan's take: Gallaudet at Anna Maria, in a game that likely decides the ECFC race. The Bison have made headlines (and nationally-televised commercials) for their partnership with AT&T, but unnoticed to some extent is how they've turned their season around after a rough 0-4 start. An AMCAT win will create a likely 3-way tie with Alfred State. The ECFC's 3-way tie-breaker for the AQ is a little unconventional, using Opponent's Winning Percentage to break the tie. If that happens, my projections are: Anna Maria's OWP: 0.434 Gallaudet's OWP: 0.388 Alfred State's OWP: 0.378
	Riley's take: Cornell at Knox...for one very specific reason. Cornell's upset of Chicago last weekend was a huge victory for the program, and will provide some extra momentum as the Rams hit the road and head south to Galesburg. They are 4-3, and with a win over Knox, would secure the program's first five-win season since 2018. It'd also be the first season with two sets of consecutive wins for Cornell since 2015. Those are key steps forward for Dan Pifer's squad.

Which game will be closest in the MAC?

	Greg's take: FDU-Florham at Eastern. I know it’s been a tough sports week in the City of Brotherly Love, but fear not, the Eagles are here. Eastern’s two wins have come at home, under the lights, in the rain. This week Eastern will host FDU-Florham in the afternoon on a very warm, sunny in Philadelphia day. I’m going full wild card with this pick, but give me the Eagles to hang around and make this contest a surprisingly close game in the MAC.
	Pat's take: Albright at Misericordia. I always like low-scoring games for questions like this, and who knows, if Albright can keep it low-scoring, it can keep it close. The Lions have only scored 31 points all year.
	Ryan's take: King's at Widener. Both teams are sniffing around the top of the conference, with both just out of likelihood of playoff contention -- but not entirely out of things, mathematically. They match up pretty well on paper, so this'll be a fun one to watch.
	Frank's take: Stevenson at No. 25 Delaware Valley. It will be a slugfest much like the LebVal/DelVal game last week. See above for more.
	Logan's take: My model thinks DelVal/Stevenson & King's/Widener will both be decided by less than 3 points. My gut tells me the DelVal/Stevenson game is going to be a commanding result for one side or the other, so I'm going with King's at Widener.
	Riley's take: King's at Widener. The MAC's top passing attack meets its best pass defense, and we could get a very competitive duel between these two. So competitive that it won't surprise me if a late two-point conversion or even a field goal is the difference in this matchup.

Four active D-III players have amassed over 10,000 total offense yards.  Which one has the highest total offense in Week 9?

	Greg's take: When looking for a winner on this one, I’m looking first for a game where I think the starting QB is going to go for all four quarters (Braxton Plunk and Kobe Berghammer, you’re excused), and second a game that’s going to work out the score board. Brandon Bullins led Methodist to a 34-33 win over NC Wesleyan last year. That’s enticing, but I’m going with Wabash's Liam Thompson this week at home against Wittenberg. Both offenses have big play capability. Both defenses can occasionally give up the big play. This one could get pointy without being a blowout.
	Pat's take: Liam Thompson has amassed a ton of yards over the years in NCAC play and I expect more of the same on Saturday.
	Ryan's take: Going with Oshkosh's Kobe Berghammer. The WIAC is a conference where every matchup feels like a trap game, so I think Berghammer will pile on the yards by getting a good amount a playing time -- moreso than, say, Mount Union's Braxton Plunk against winless Otterbein, which will slow his stats for the week.
	Frank's take: Braxton Plunk (Mount Union) vs. Otterbein. Let’s face it: Plunk is a special player, and against a team that’s winless this season, his numbers will be great by Halftime.
	Logan's take: Kobe Berghammer (UWO) - I don't know how far into the game Plunk will play this week, limiting his output. Thompson will have a competitive game against Wittenberg, and I like N.C. Wesleyan to win against Methodist (Bullins), so those games may not produce eye-popping stats. But I think UWO is going to have their way with UWSP, and I don't see Petey Bananas taking his foot off the gas, so that probably means like, 600 yards and 5 TDs for Berghammer.
	Riley's take: In finding an answer for this question, I think you need to look at players in games that won't be completely one-sided, but matchups where offense should prevail. With this in mind, I'm taking Liam Thompson, as Wabash enters a contest against Wittenberg as the favorite, but not by a substantial margin. It will take a strong showing from Thompson for Wabash to earn its second straight win, and he is fully capable of throwing for 280+ yards; he's done so in each of his last three games. But he also has the speed and awareness to run for positive yardage when necessary...just ask Wooster. A 300+ yard day is in store for Thompson.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!