Jonathan Anderson is coming off a 211-yard rushing day for Union. Union athletics photo by Paul Bukowski

Week 7 comes packed with pivotal conference matchups in the Libety League, the MIAA, and the ODAC.  Oh yes, also another top 10 matchup in the WIAC and a second WIAC game that could be considered a Game of the Week candidate.  Our panel of experts has assembled to spotlight those games, see whose stingy defense is going to be challenged, and who — if anybody — is on upset alert.  

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game (outside of River Falls, Wisconsin) is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: No. 19 Alma at Hope. The Dutchmen are coming off of a defensive performance that kept Albion’s offense out of the end zone for the first time in 100 games. Alma is scoring nearly 60 points per game and has looked unstoppable so far in 2023. Something has to give on Saturday in Holland where control of the MIAA is at stake.
	Pat's take: Union at No. 15 Ithaca. Ithaca has won 11 of the past 12 meetings, but those were with the Dutchmen, not the Garnet Chargers. I'm going to choose to believe that Union's close win against the University of Rochester last week was about Union perhaps looking ahead to this one a little, rather than Union being closer to Rochester than Ithaca. This should be a good one.
	Ryan's take: Union at No. 15 Ithaca. Though undefeated, Union is barely registering on the minds of Top 25 voters, while the Bombers face their third stiff test in a row in conference play. Both teams have a lot on the line here.
	Frank's take: Carleton at No. 8 St. John’s. Want a game that could shake up the entire landscape of D3? This game has the potential to be just that. Carleton comes in as the undefeated team, winning close games three weeks in a row. The Johnnies have struggled at times this season. Can Carleton pull off the upset? Yes, but it won’t be easy on the road.
	Logan's take: Union at No. 15 Ithaca. We know Ithaca's defense will come to play. but Ithaca's offense has not yet scored more than 24 points this season. Their opponent-adjusted efficiency this season ranks 62nd nationally, a far cry from their 2022 unit that easily ranked in the Top 25. Meanwhile, Union has been stellar this season on both sides of the ball, albeit against lesser competition. I expect a close, low-scoring game.
	Riley's take: Union at No. 15 Ithaca. Yes, Ithaca is included in my game of the week for the second straight week. But this is another huge Liberty League battle between two teams who are off to 2-0 starts in conference action. And in many ways, this is a game that could decide who represents the Liberty League in the postseason, considering that Ithaca has already beaten both Hobart and RPI, the other two main contenders. Union's defense has been stringent through its 6-0 start, to say the least, giving up just 5.2 points per game. But Ithaca is certainly expected to be their biggest test. I won't be surprised if this game is decided in overtime.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 6 UW-La Crosse. The WIAC is incredibly unforgiving. La Crosse snapped a 19-game losing streak to Whitewater last week, in front of over 20,000 people, with a walk off 51-yard field goal. How do you match that?  Do the Eagles need to match their performance from Whitewater to win this week at Platteville?  Probably not. But they can’t slip much or Justin Blazek and the Pioneers can absolutely bring the Eagles back down from last week’s heights.
	Pat's take: I still see a big nothingburger here. None.
	Ryan's take: No. 11 Randolph-Macon. Macon and opponent Bridgewater both excel as rushing teams -- offensively and defensively. Feels like a recipe for a big play here or there to really break open the game and set one apart from the other.
	Frank's take: No. 19 Alma at Hope. Hope’s win vs. Albion last week was no small feat. Now with Alma coming to visit — an Alma team that’s put up great scores against mediocre opponents all season — Hope has a shot to shock the Scots.
	Logan's take: I have three Top 25 vs. unranked games with a single digit spread: Alma at Hope, UW-L at UW-P, and Union at  Ithaca. My model thinks UWL is the most likely, but I've had Union ahead of Ithaca on my ballot for a few weeks. Union had a little blip last week vs. an improved Rochester, but I think their offense does enough to upset No. 15 Ithaca.
	Riley's take: No. 19 Alma. I considered writing "none" for this question, because there really aren't many "likely" upsets throughout the Top 25. But let's take a look at Hope-Alma, because I think there's a chance for an upset in the MIAA. Hope is at home, just as the Flying Dutch were in last week's 14-6 win over Albion, and hosting a team that dominated the first half of its schedule. The Scots are the frontrunners in the MIAA title chase, but I'm not sure they've faced a defense quite to the level of Hope's yet. The defensive line of the Flying Dutch is strong at the line of scrimmage, and tends to fare well against the run. The key is going to be a strong defensive performance from Hope, because containing that Alma offense is an uphill battle. If they can do that, it'll give the Flying Dutch a chance at victory.

Pick an upset winner from a game in a conference ATN ranked between 11-15.

	Greg's take: Westminster(Pa.) over CWRU. Everybody in the PAC, ranked 12th in our 2023  ATN conference rankings, is looking up at Grove City with no chance to catch them without significant help. The Titans have steadied themselves after a rocky 1-2 start and should be ready to go against a CWRU side that they have taken each of the last two meetings from.
	Pat's take: Pacific over Lewis & Clark in the Northwest Conference. I struggled with this question and what the concept of an upset is at this point in the season, but hopefully this qualifies.
	Ryan's take: Adrian over Kalamazoo. The Bulldogs are in a three-game slump, and two of those games involved blown leads in the fourth quarter. The Hornets, though, haven't been showing as much juice late in the game in recent weeks, which makes this ripe for an Adrian victory.
	Frank's take: Misericordia over Widener. The Pride had a rough loss last week vs. Leb Val. It’s a chance for the Cougars to catch those other cats for a surprise victory this week.
	Logan's take: First, I'm going to define terms: it's only an "upset" if the winning team both started the game lower in the conference standings and finished 2022 lower. The biggest upset potential under those conditions is Waynesburg (0-5/0-5 in 2023, 4-6/3-5 in 2022) over St. Vincent (2-3/2-3 in 2023, 5-5/5-3 in 2022).
	Riley's take: Maybe I'm going too far out on a limb here, but I'm taking Averett to stun Hampden-Sydney in the ODAC. Averett is at home, and matches up well with HSC for one main reason: pass defense. Sure, Averett hasn't faced the best passing teams through its first five games. And HSC's strength is in throwing the football. But Jahlin Russell is a force on the defensive line for Averett and gets into the backfield quickly, and the Cougars have a very capable secondary. It'll take a superb defensive performance, and a quicker start from the offense than we've seen, but Averett has a chance to win its first ODAC game in this one.

Which under the radar game are you following?

	Greg's take: DePauw at Wooster. Last week Wooster mounted an impressive second half effort against Wabash, rallying from 28 points down to make the Little Giants work for a 45-35. Meanwhile, DePauw’s offense struggled to gain traction in a 17-6 win against Denison. The Scots have an opportunity to inject a little chaos into the NCAC this year fi they can pull off an upset at home this weekend.
	Pat's take: No. 6 UW-La Crosse at UW-Platteville. Obviously this is only under the radar because Whitewater-River Falls casts a huge shadow in Region 6, but have to keep an eye on the Eagles not going down the river to their conference rival and laying an egg.
	Ryan's take: TCNJ at Kean. For the winless Cougars, this may be their best shot at notching one in the win column this season, with TCNJ also coming up empty each week since their opener.
	Frank's take: Western Connecticut at Framingham State. After a pretty ugly start this season, Framingham State has a shot to put itself back in contention for the MASCAC title. However, WestConn has had a great season thus far. This game has the potential to shape the remainder of the MASCAC race if Bridgewater State slips later this season.
	Logan's take: Like I mentioned last week, D-III bowl games are Good and Fun. The biggest game in that regard this week is between WashU and Augustana in St. Louis. The winner of this game is likely to be the CCIW's Culver's Isthmus Bowl representative. Through the first 5 weeks, WashU has avoided every team in the top half of the CCIW standings, so this will be their first big test of the season. Augie, meanwhile, rose to the occasion in their biggest test this season, taking Wheaton to the wire three weeks ago.
	Riley's take: Maryville(Tenn.) at Huntingdon. This is a pivotal USA South Conference contest, as both Maryville and Huntingdon are chasing Belhaven and Brevard in the top half of the league standings. Neither team is out of the league title race at this point, but each has a conference loss already, so a win here would be that much more impactful. This matchup also features the USAC's best passing offense (Maryville) against its top passing defense (Huntingdon), which should produce a high-quality matchup in Montgomery.

Which team giving up 8 points per game or less will give up the most points this week?

	Greg's take: Endicott, against Western New England. There are not going to be a lot of points given out amongst the elite defenses on this list. Western New England has scored 21 in each of their last two meeting with Endicott. I doubt that the Golden Bears will need to reach 21 to score the most in this group of teams, but history suggest that Western New England will find the end zone this weekend.
	Pat's take: Union will give up the most points, and it won't even be close. Brockport and Salve don't play, and the rest can basically name their final score this week.
	Ryan's take: Endicott against Western New England. The Golden Bears can move the ball and put points on the board, even against good teams -- both their losses involved multiple touchdowns. It seems likely they'll find the end zone here as well.
	Frank's take: Union (at No. 15 Ithaca). I have Ithaca winning this game, meaning the Bombers should Charge ahead with about 20+ points vs. Union.
	Logan's take: Among these seven teams, two don't play this week, and my model thinks Lake Forest and Mount Union are likely to have shutouts. The only team likely to give up more than a TD or so is Union going on the road to Ithaca.
	Riley's take: Nobody on this list is going to give up much this week, but Union is my pick here. Ithaca's offense is dynamic enough that I expect the Bombers will cross the goal line at least twice in that contest. And 14 points, at a minimum, should be more than enough to be the most amongst the defenses allowing eight points or fewer.

Pick a winner and a most outstanding player for No. 7 UW-Whitewater at No. 4 UW-River Falls.

	Greg's take: UW-Whitewater had a 19-game series win streak snapped last week. This week they look to extend a 20-game win streak against UW-River Falls. The Falcons are flying high and are slight favorites according to Logan’s ratings. I like the Warhawks to bounce back and win this week with Alec Ogden winning the duel of the dual threat quarterbacks and being the game’s most outstanding player.
	Pat's take: It's not generally a great idea for me to pick a winner in a game I will be covering. People just get upset, you know? I got special dispensation from Greg to both-sides this. So, if UW-River Falls wins, it will be behind quarterback Kaleb Blaha. If UW-Whitewater wins, it will help to get pressure up front from Matt Burba and the like, as the Warhawks have just eight sacks through five games.
	Ryan's take: I've had River Falls higher on my ballot since the preseason, so I'm going to go with them here, with strong-armed, quick-footed quarterback Kaleb Blaha as the game's outstanding player.
	Frank's take: River Falls. Kaleb Blaha (QB) as your MVP.
	Logan's take: Not to take anything away from UW-La Crosse, but it took some uncharacteristic miscues from Whitewater and a 51 yard, last second FG for the Eagles to pull off that victory. I think the Warhawks do a better job protecting the ball this week and they win a close one. The outcome will probably depend on turnovers, and I envision Joey Antonietti for UWW forcing one in a crucial moment (but I think even in a loss, Kaleb Blaha could have an argument for MOP)
	Riley's take: This is clearly the game of the week, and the stakes are enormously high for both teams. UW-River Falls hasn't missed a beat since it opened the season with a dominant home win over UMHB, and the Falcons are at home for this one as well. UWRF's offense plays with a quick pace, and the Falcons are especially aggressive on that side of the ball. The Whitewater defense won't make it easy to gain big yardage, but once QB Kaleb Blaha breaks for a couple of gains on the ground, it should open up the passing lanes a little more for the Falcon offense. Expect a high-scoring contest, with UW-RF defending its home field and taking the win behind a solid performance on both sides of the ball. For his remarkable running and passing ability, which will be showcased against one of the WIAC's toughest defenses, Kaleb Blaha is my pick as Most Outstanding Player.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!