The Engineers haven't been getting very many votes in the Top 25, suggesting perhaps voters are waiting for this moment. RPI athletics photo by Michelle Roslinski

October is here, the air is getting a bit more crisp at your morning tailgates, and conference play is going to start presenting must-win games for teams around the division. Surprise results last week in the MWC and MASCAC remind us to take nothing for granted in conference play! This week the nation's top conference serves up a matchup of top 15-ranked teams, the Liberty League drama builds, and a team in the USA South could take a big step forward. Our panel of experts has eyes on all of that, plus who's running their way into the season's second half, and who is on upset alert in Week 6. 

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: No. 14 UW-La Crosse at No. 3 UW-Whitewater. Make it five straight ranked opponents for the Warhawks to open the season. Four of the last five in this series have been decided by one score or less- but the Warhawks have won 16 in a row in the series. Can Keyser Helterbrand lead the Eagles to a streak breaking win? Or will the Warhawk’s just-returned-from-injury starter Alec Ogden keep Whitewater rolling into the back half of their schedule?  I have a feeling over 10,000 people are going to pack the Perk to find out.
	Pat's take: No. 12 John Carroll at Marietta. As I mentioned on the podcast, this game is a lot more intriguing than it was a couple of weeks ago and I think this turns into a nice challenge for JCU.
	Ryan's take: No. 16 Ithaca at RPI. The Engineers have been a bit of a sleeper undefeated team, hinging on their ability to both put up points and shut down opponents' run games. Ithaca has already had one great win against Endicott -- a second would position them well when the Regional Rankings come knocking.
	Frank's take: No. 16 Ithaca at RPI. After the Liberty League entered conference play with three undefeated teams and an Ithaca squad that had a quality loss vs. Johns Hopkins, the conference could merit one of the four prized Pool C bids. However, this game will go a long way in determining if the Liberty League will merit such a bid. A loss by Ithaca might knock them out of legitimate Pool C contention and place RPI in control of their own destiny for the remaining weeks. A win could put the Bombers one game away from a Pool A win.
	Logan's take: No. 14 UW-La Crosee at No. 3 UW-Whitewater. It's been almost a decade since UWW's last national title, but they look like they're primed for another run. UWL has been their biggest competition in conference the last few years, but they've been yo-yoing between "dominate a scholarship school in all three phases" and "let a 7 point lead slip vs. HSU and nearly blow a 25 point lead to Stout" this season. If the Eagles step up and avoid the start UWO had last week, they have a chance.
	Riley's take: No. 16 Ithaca at RPI. The Liberty League never disappoints once conference play gets underway, and this matchup pits two of the league's best, with Ithaca at 3-1, and RPI at a perfect 4-0. RPI's passing attack continues to be very efficient, at 233 yards per game on a 64.8 percent completion percentage (highest in the league) and getting into rhythm through the air will be key for the Engineers. Ithaca hasn't exactly dominated its competition up to this point, but the Bombers are an improved squad from the season-opening loss at Johns Hopkins and they've been tested on a few different occasions.. This was a three-point game at Ithaca last year. Don't be surprised if we get a similar result in Troy on Saturday.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 16 Ithaca. Winning on the road in the Liberty League is notoriously difficult. In fact, Ithaca has never won at RPI while these teams have been Liberty League rivals- the Bombers are 0-3 in Troy in that time. Ithaca are favorites tomorrow, of course, but a Bomber win would be historic, if even on the short, shared Liberty League timeline of these two teams.
	Pat's take: None. I stop short of picking John Carroll to be upset.
	Ryan's take: No. 12 John Carroll. It's been a minute since Marietta has been considered capable of upending an OAC big dog, but with the Pioneers coming off a convincing win over Baldwin-Wallace, this Saturday could be interesting.
	Frank's take: No. 16 Ithaca (at RPI). The weather in Troy on Saturday will be washout conditions, making a tough place to visit and win even tougher. Give a slight edge to an RPI team, whose Week 1 tussle against Dickinson looks better now that Dickinson has rolled since Week 1. Regardless of the upset question, this game should be a low-scoring, close affair that could be decided very late in the game.
	Logan's take: Excluding the one Top 25 vs. Top 25 matchup, my model thinks there's only one Top 25 team with less than a 90% chance to win on Saturday. I'm tempted to say nobody, but RPI and No. 16 Ithaca have played each other very close the last couple seasons, so I'll go with Ithaca.
	Riley's take: Ithaca definitely appears to have a possibility of being upset, but take a look at No. 12 John Carroll, who is traveling to Marietta. Marietta may have gone under the radar a little bit, but the Pioneers are 3-1. That third win came at Baldwin Wallace last week in a 42-21 result that made me look into this matchup a little closer. The key for Marietta in this one is to control the clock, and stay aggressive in the run game. JCU's defense is giving up a little over 120 rush yards per game, so if Marietta can take advantage of that, find its way into the end zone rather than settling for field goals, and limit JCU's offensive possessions, we may get an upset in the OAC.

Eight players rushed for more than 200 yards in Week 5.  Which one will rush for the most yards in Week 6?

	Greg's take: Chad Blaszky, Western Connecticut. Blaszky helped the Wolves run through Mass-Dartmouth last week. This week, WestConn gets 0-4 Plymouth State in a late afternoon homecoming kickoff in Danbury. With that upset win last week, the Wolves are in play for a MASCAC title and I expect they will lean heavily on their star RB. Blaszky almost never carries fewer than 21 times in a game, so he’ll get the volume against a Plymouth State defense that is yielding over 5 yards per carry.
	Pat's take: Garrett Cora, of Franklin. A game against Anderson shapes up nicely for a bunch of rushing yards, at least while he's in the game.
	Ryan's take: Garrett Cora, Franklin. I'm going to play the statistical odds here, with Cora and his fellow Grizzlies going up against an 0-4 Anderson team that is 230th in rushing defense in a division of 239 schools.
	Frank's take: Garrett Cora (Franklin at Anderson). Both squads have struggled this season, but Anderson’s defense has just been problematic for them this season. That opens up the opportunity for Cora to run early and often in this game, perhaps pushing him back above the 200yd mark Saturday.
	Logan's take: Devaun Ford, Framingham State. Teams with a lead tend to run more than teams trailing. The three biggest favorites among the eight teams are Franklin, WestConn, and Framingham. Among those, Devaun has the highest per game average and he has the least competition for carries.
	Riley's take: Franklin's Garrett Cora ran for 265 yards last week, and I anticipate another outstanding rushing performance from the junior on Saturday. Anderson's defensive front has really struggled against the run, which I think gives Cora an opportunity for another career-high day. The Franklin offensive line is terrific and should open up plenty of opportunities for Cora to break for some big gains.

Which under the radar game are you following?

	Greg's take: Birmingham-Southern at Sewanee. While the Panthers are trying to find their footing in this 2023 season, Sewanee is off to a 3-1 start- their best four game opening stretch since 2001. The momentums for these two sides couldn’t be more opposite. Birmingham-Southern needs a win to stop a four game slide and try to salvage a winning season. Sewanee can deliver their match their highest  single season  win total in the last decade.
	Pat's take: Central at Loras. Loras won at Central last season and Central is in the process of righting the ship and will not let this one go by.
	Ryan's take: Wilkes at Lycoming. It's easy to brush off the Warriors' 0-4 record, but it's worth noting that they've played teams that are 3-1, 3-1, 5-0 and 4-1. If they've been able to stay healthy through it all, they're in a good spot to log win No. 1 against a team like Wilkes.
	Frank's take: Pomona-Pitzer at Redlands. 10 p.m. EDT games are generally under the radar in D3, but this game could be one of the last hurdles for Redlands in their hope to again win the SCIAC. Coming off a loss to CMS, Pomona-Pitzer might have been looking past last week’s game a bit. Both teams should be ready for what will be a fun atmosphere under the lights that will be a survival game for the Sagehens and an important momentum maintainer for the Bulldogs.
	Logan's take:  In the MIAA, Albion and Hope play in a big, evenly matched game that has big title implications, but I'm also focusing on Olivet vs. Kalamazoo (my model has K'zoo favored by 1 point). Excluding the COVID season, Olivet has experienced a decade straight of at-or-above-0.500 seasons, but they are not trending in the right direction right now. My model thinks their most likely record will be 3-7. On the flip side, Kalamazoo has only had one season above 0.500 in the same timeframe, but is trending up, and has a real chance to finish above 0.500 with a win on Saturday. (P.S. I hope Pat mentioned the Benedictine/Concordia game in Region 5. They're the overwhelming favorites to play in the Lakefront Bowl, and DIII bowl games are Good and Fun)
	Riley's take: Montclair State at Kean. Montclair State is one of three NJAC teams sitting at 1-0 in conference play, while Kean is winless on the season. Yet, I think this could provide an interesting result, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that Kean finds a way to win this one. The Cougar offense has struggled throughout the first four games, but they have shown spurts of success, especially throwing the ball. Montclair State does have one of the NJAC's better defenses, so it will be an uphill battle for Kean. But I definitely see a scenario where this ends up as a very competitive, tight, one-score game.

26 undefeated teams remain. Pick two to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten in Week 6.

	Greg's take: Utica is going to be a popular choice, I suspect. While the Pioneers outlasted Cortland in last year’s tournament, they just haven’t looked like they have the same ceiling this fall. Outside of the last 15 minutes vs. Susquehanna, Cortland has been razor sharp this season. Belhaven hosts Huntingdon in a game that the Blazers need to set the table for a playoff breakthrough. That breakthrough may have to wait though as the Hawks will keep Belhaven at bay for one more season.
	Pat's take: Utica (vs. Cortland) and RPI (vs. Ithaca). None of the 4-0 teams is someone I think will lose easily, but forced to pick two, these seem more likely. My preferred pick 2 is at Panera (not a sponsor).
	Ryan's take: Utica, against Cortland, because even though Cortland endured a loss, they're still a powerful team. And Belhaven, against Huntingdon, because the Blazers' opponents are a combined 3-16, so there's understandably some questions about how good they are against tougher competition.
	Frank's take: Utica vs. No. 17 Cortland. The level of opponent for Utica this season has just been well below the level of Cortland. We’ll find out the trajectory of the Empire 8 race in this game, but I give the edge to the home-standing Red Dragons. — Belhaven vs. Huntingdon. The Hawks have rebounded well after a Berry loss that makes a lot more sense now with 2023 context. The Blazers are no pushover, either, however, I give a slight edge to the Hawks this year.
	Logan's take:  Belhaven & RPI. Belhaven hosts Huntingdon, and with students on fall break, they may not (or may, if McCorkle's Twitter request to delay fall break works) have much of a homefield advantage. I know I picked RPI as the team most likely to upset a Top 25 team earlier, but they're also one of the two undefeateds most likely to lose, so I guess you could say I'm hedging.
	Riley's take: Albion has gotten off to a terrific start, but I think Hope will find a way to pull out in a narrow victory at home. The Flying Dutch have looked fairly sharp in each of their last four wins and will keep it rolling in Holland. And in the Empire 8, Cortland should have more than enough to get past Utica, handing the Pioneers a loss for the first time in 2023.

Which MIAC game will be closest?

	Greg's take: I expect the Johnnies to bounce back at home with a big win, so I’m staying away from that one. I’ll take St. Olaf at Carleton as the MIAC nailbiter this week. I will also take Jack Curtis to throw fewer than 77 passes.
	Pat's take: Concordia-Moorhead at St. John's. This game often has some unusual results, and St. John's hasn't impressed since halftime of the UW-Whitewater game. Although St. Olaf and Carleton are the closest in distance, with stadiums just a mile and a half apart, as the goat walks.
	Ryan's take: Concordia-Moorhead at St. John's. Feeling kind of frisky with this pick, but there are too many other games between teams with lopsided records or that don't match up well in terms of offensive/defensive strengths.
	Frank's take: St. Olaf at Carleton. After the big late surge for Carleton last week, and St. Olaf’s continued success since their Week 1 loss to Central, this game sets up as a close game, winnable for either team.
	Logan's take:  I'm going to trust my model here (because I can't imagine picking any other game than the one at the top). In order from smallest to largest predicted margin: St. Olaf @ Carleton - 0.3 Augsburg @ Hamline - 23.0 Concordia @ SJU - 23.5 Gustavus @ St. Scholastica - 32.4 Bethel @ Macalester - 37.6
	Riley's take: Carleton at St. Olaf. Both of these teams are evenly matched, and have their own individual strengths. Carleton's passing attack has a good chance of giving the St. Olar secondary trouble, especially early on before defensive adjustments can be made. And St. Olaf might have the best run game in the MIAC, led by Jordan Embry. This could easily end up as a one or two-point game.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!