The Little Brass Bell is typically the spotlight game of the regular season for archrivals North Central and Wheaton. Photo by Steve Woltmann for North Central athletics

In Week 5, Division III is settling in to conference play. The fifth football Saturday of September delivers key matchups in the WIAC, CCIW, CC, SAA, and ARC. Defending national champion North Central steps into the spotlight with their top-10 ranked rival, and undefeated-but-still-unranked teams have opportunities to prove they belong in the Top 25. Our panel of experts is here to set the table for all of the big action this weekend, eyeing upsets in the WIAC, and keeping an on teams who are ready to crack the win column in 2023.  

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: No. 1 North Central at No. 10. Wheaton. There are plenty of big games to choose from this week, but the Little Brass Bell game not only matches up a pair of top ten teams, but gives the defending champions their first big test of the season.  Wheaton gave up 248 yards and 7.5 yards per rush last week against Augustana- the Thunder will need to be much better against the run this week to have a chance to reclaim the Little Brass Bell.
	Pat's take: No. 4 UW-Whitewater at No. 20 UW-Oshkosh. This is just the first salvo between the four WIAC front-runners, and frankly, Platteville (at River Falls) and Stout (at La Crosse) have a chance to play their way into front-runner status as well. Oshkosh has a chance to tell us more about Wheaton, Whitewater has a chance to tell us more about St. John's and John Carroll and Mary Hardin-Baylor (about which we already know a great amount).
	Ryan's take: No. 1 North Central at No. 10 Wheaton for the iconic Little Brass Bell. Need I say more?
	Frank's take: No. 5 Trinity (Texas) at Berry. Of course, The Little Brass Bell is a major featured game this weekend, but this is, for all intents and purposes, the SAA title game this season. The winner likely needs to lose twice to make that untrue — and I can’t identify two teams on their schedules that could knock off either. Both teams would have a chance for a Pool C bid with a loss, but a Pool A bid is what both want here.
	Logan's take: We have a lot of great options this week, with big games in the ARC, ASC, CCIW, CC and WIAC, but I'm most excited about No. 5 Trinity (Texas) on the road at Berry. I have Berry at No. 11 on my Top 25 ballot, accounting for 1/3 of their poll points. Berry has been demolishing their schedule so far, including dominant wins over Huntingdon & Centre. Trinity has established themselves as a legitimate Top 10 team with their early season successes, and I'm interested to see if Berry can compete at that level, too.
	Riley's take: So many to choose from, but I'm taking Howard Payne at No. 18 Hardin-Simmons. Neither of these teams can afford a loss in conference play, and yet someone will take a loss in Abilene on Saturday. In a wide-open ASC that has three legitimate contenders this season, HPU and HSU are playing a game that has the potential to decide the playoff fate of both teams. HSU comes in looking for a bounce-back after last week's disappointment at Endicott, but with serious question marks on both sides of the ball when it comes to personnel. HPU hasn't really been tested yet, but has an underrated defense that could give HSU trouble. And we all know what QB Landon McKinney can do throwing the football. Expect a tight margin of victory here.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 6 UW-River Falls. Yes, it’s homecoming at River Falls, but anything goes in the WIAC and UW-Platteville may be getting severely undersold by Top 25 voters. The Pioneers beat the Falcons last year with a relatively limited offense.  Repeating the feat this year with a healthier roster wouldn’t surprise me at all.
	Pat's take: No. 23 Muhlenberg (at Ursinus). Ursinus has beaten Muhlenberg two years in a row and would probably be happy to do so again.
	Ryan's take: No. 13 UW-La Crosse. If UW-Stout can lean on its run defense to make the Eagles one-dimensional, a window of opportunity can open for the Blue Devils.
	Frank's take: No. 1 North Central (at No. 10 Wheaton). I know it’s another “flyer” — my last one was a narrow miss — but this game sets up interestingly. To my friends here at D3football, Augustana isn’t a pushover team with who they have back, and Wheaton’s struggle against them isn’t surprising. North Central, while battle-tested as a program, hasn’t had a battle to test them this season. Wheaton, at home and somewhat battle-tested, could jump out to an early lead and put the pressure on the Cardinals Saturday.
	Logan's take: If I limit myself to only matchups against unranked opponents, I'm going to go with No. 18 Hardin-Simmons hosting Howard Payne. I'm sure HSU will be motivated after their loss to Endicott, but the injury question at QB remains. Other games with single digits spread are Trinity/Berry, UWRF/UWP, Ithaca/Hobart, & Muhlenberg/Ursinus.
	Riley's take: Hardin-Simmons seems like an obvious choice here with the injuries they're dealing with, but I also want to look at No. 13 UW-La Crosse. UW-Stout has a chance at an upset here, especially coming out of a bye week. Both defenses are giving up an average of just 12 points per game, and that is the key if Stout wants to pull off this upset: keep it low-scoring and run the ball plenty. If UWL's defense has a weakness, it is in its run defense.

Who will be the most surprising 5-0 team?

	Greg's take: Union.  It won’t be all that surprising if Union beats St. Lawrence this weekend, but Union cruising to 5-0 in a season following a relatively disappointing 6-4 season, with a fourth place finish in the Liberty League and a coaching change in the offseason is noteworthy.  The Garnet Chargers are absolutely back in the thick of the Liberty League title picture
	Pat's take: Looking at the teams which are currently 4-0, I don't know that any of the teams I think will win will be a surprise. It's no surprise for 4-0 Utica to beat Hartwick. I don't see 4-0 Coe beating 4-0 Wartburg, and 5-0 Wartburg is the antithesis of a surprise. But the most surprising, perhaps, might be Albion, even though I won't be surprised if they beat Kalamazoo.
	Ryan's take: Eureka. I mean, it'll be a big challenge to upend Aurora on Saturday, but at 4-0, the Red Devils have matched their win total from the past two seasons. To make win number 5 happen, Eureka would do well to have more breathing room later in the game than it has had in recent weeks.
	Frank's take: Utica. With the number of losses Blaise Faggiano’s team was facing this year to graduation, it didn’t feel like the team that made their way into the second round last year would be able to carry that momentum forward. Faggiano said, “NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND!” and here we are with the Pioneers a step away from a perfect first half of the season.
	Logan's take: No. 12 Susquehanna. It's surprising not because a win against Catholic this week would be a surprise, but surprising given how they got here. Even in a season with ten Top 25 matchups in the first two weeks, Susquehanna's schedule to date is one of the top 20 most difficult in the country, and then add into the mix their comeback vs. Cortland and a FG with 2 seconds left to eek out a 1-point victory against Brockport, the River Hawks are definitely this season's biggest surprise 5-0 team.
	Riley's take: The majority of undefeated teams have had at least one bye week already, and honestly, most of the 4-0 teams out there have played weak schedules. But if there's a least expected 5-0 candidate, it might be Albion. There were some doubts in the preseason as to whether the Britons' could follow up on last year's 9-1 campaign, with a handful of new starters and a first-year head coach. But those questions have largely been put to rest and this is a team very much in contention atop the MIAA standings that should take down Kalamazoo on Saturday.

Which under the radar game are you following?

	Greg's take: Washington & Jefferson at Grove City. The PAC did Grove City no favors by placing CWRU, Carnegie Mellon, and W&J on three consecutive weekends, but the Wolverines have answered the bell in the first two legs of this gauntlet.  If they can go full Emanski and win back-to-back-to-back, they’ll be all but locked in to the PAC’s automatic bid.  The Presidents, however, boast top 20 profiles on both offense and defense and have won the last ten meetings in the series.
	Pat's take: Ohio Northern at No. 2 Mount Union. This isn't me trying to say we're going to channel the epic 2005 game, but more thinking about Coach Paul, a Mount Union graduate, getting some support from his alma mater and fellow Mount Union alumni after going public this week about his wife Tonya's "rare and aggressive" breast cancer entering a new phase. Best wishes to the Paul family and the entire Ohio Northern Polar Bear football family.
	Ryan's take: UW-Stevens Point at UW-Eau Claire. Beyond being a conference opener, this is the Pointers' annual Pink Game, which began in 2010 so that the team can help raise money for organizations that support families touched by cancer. Last year, UW-SP raised over $50,000 with the Pink Game.
	Frank's take: Monmouth at Illinois College. In trying to see if the MWC will be competitive this season, we have a chance for a good comparison. Lake Forest has already rolled over Illinois College this season, despite the Blueboys being strong in their other two games of the season. I’m curious to see how Monmouth handles this game as we head toward the Week 10 showdown with Lake Forest.
	Logan's take: Hampden-Sydney hosting Bridgewater. These squads both came into the season among the primary challengers to R-MC in the ODAC. Each had disappointing Week 1 results, and then bounced back in a big way in their last two games. A win in this game keeps either team's (slim) playoff hopes alive.
	Riley's take: Merchant Marine at Salve Regina. This will undoubtedly be a huge contest in the NEWMAC, with two of the league's frontrunners battling in a mid-season matchup. Both come off Week 4 wins, and I'll be surprised if this is decided by more than a touchdown. These are two of the most efficient offenses in the league, which should add to the competitiveness.

Of the teams giving up less than 200 yards of offense per game, which will be furthest from its average?

	Greg's take: Illinois College. The Blueboys have been great on defense so far in 2023, but the Monmouth offense has been relentlessly productive.  The Scots gain well over 500 yards per game, and are the only team this year that put significant stress on the mighty Wartburg defense.
	Pat's take: Brockport. I'm thinking furthest as in under their average of 176 yards per game.
	Ryan's take: Illinois College. With opponent Monmouth one of the best passing teams in the country and averaging over 327 yards a game, they're going to be a lot for the Blueboys to handle.
	Frank's take: No. 1 North Central (at No. 10 Wheaton). In a rivalry game, it will be hard to keep North Central at their average, which seems somewhat low based on who they’ve played so far. This is more a statistical statement than anything else, as the sample size is low.
	Logan's take: Illinois College (vs. Monmouth). This question really comes down to either North Central or Illinois College. I think Monmouth's success on offense, especially their 35 points in Week 1 against a Wartburg defense that hasn't allowed another point since, showcases what they're capable of.
	Riley's take: No. 1 North Central (Ill.). The nation's top-ranked team has an accomplished defensive front, but Wheaton is likely to be NCC's toughest test of the regular season. Led by star running back Giovanni Weeks, Wheaton's rushing attack is extremely effective. At quarterback, Ben Thorson is an accurate passer, completing 71 percent of his passes through three games. I think Wheaton tallies at least 220 yards of offense in this one.

Which 0-4 team will hit their season’s halfway point with a win?

	Greg's take: Southern Virginia. The Knights started 2023 with three very good opponents, and were six seconds away from victory last week before Methodist tied the game and ultimately went on to win in overtime. Southern Virginia gets that first win this season on Saturday against LaGrange.
	Pat's take: Kenyon, in the battle of 0-4 teams against Hiram. Kenyon is at home and has put up about a touchdown more per game this season.
	Ryan's take: Capital, against Otterbein. OK, OK, I know Otterbein is ALSO 0-4, but the Comets at least have shown the ability to put up points consistently against opponents this season, something that has been somewhat more elusive for the Cardinals.
	Frank's take: Wilkes (vs. Lycoming). Lycoming just hasn’t been very competitive in most of their games (exception: 38-35 L vs. Utica). While Wilkes hasn’t won a game either, they’ve shown some glimmers of hope this season. This will be a tough game, but I give the edge to Wilkes here.
	Logan's take: Wilkes. The Colonels are (obviously) 0-4, but they've played exclusively above average to good teams so far, and they've been competitive, losing by single digits to King's and St. John Fisher. With Juniata, who ranks outside my Top 200, coming to town, Wilkes should roll.
	Riley's take: Wisconsin Lutheran. The Warriors had a rough first four games, hosting Lake Forest before playing the next three on the road. The defense needs to improve, but I think all the pieces are there for WLC to get in the win column against Rockford. With a homecoming crowd in the stands, and Mike DuPree at running back, this is an opportunity for WLC to put those first four losses in the rearview mirror and set its sights towards the remainder of the NACC slate.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!