/notables/2023/09/quick-hits-week2

Quick Hits: We predict Week 2

The inaugural Glazers Bowl trophy, and the donuts, were taken home by Carroll last year in a win against Wisconsin Lutheran. Who will win the re-munch?
Photo by Patrick Coleman, D3sports.com
 

When you glance at the schedule and see eight of the top 16 ranked teams in the division playing one another, you expect to be in Week 2- of the playoffs. We're in Week 2 of the regular season, and that's exactly what we're getting on Saturday. Heavy duty games in the upper midwest highlight the afternoon's action before the spotlight draws down to San Antonio for a primetime showdown that is going to have half of our panel on site. Yeah, it's big. There's plenty to like about this weekend's undercard as well. Our panel of experts dives into the ranked matchups and other games to keep an eye on in this week six pack of Quick Hits. 

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Patrick Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: No. 4 St. John's at No. 8 UW-Whitewater. There are five games involving ranked teams squaring off angainst one another, four of those involving teams in the top 16.  We talked a lot in ATN Episode 332 about the high drama at the end of the Week 1 St. John's victory. Not be outdone, the Warhawks battled back from an early deficit to win with a touchdown in the final minute at John Carroll. Both sides started slowly and found their offensive grooves in the second halves setting up a titanic Region 6 matchup between two premeire sides carrying big momentum. 
Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: No. 12 Mary Hardin-Baylor at No. 5 Trinity (Texas). In part because I bought my airplane ticket months ago, and in part because two 0-1 teams suddenly have a little more pressure on them.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: No. 6 Hardin Simmons at No. 11 UW-La Crosse. Both teams exited Week 1 relatively untested while high-level teams in their conferences had A LOT happen to them. This game will be a gauge of where each squad is at.
Frank's take: No. 12 UMHB at No. 5 Trinity (Texas). The winner will still have a margin for error with a chance to go 8-2 and still get a Pool C bid. The loser’s options will be only through Pool A.
Logan's take: No. 3 Wartburg at No. 16 Bethel. Bethel's breaking in a new full-time starting QB, but George Bolt is a 5th year senior who rushed or threw the ball nearly 150 times last season. Wartburg's defense (i.e. Parker Rochford) last week forced 3 interceptions, but failed to register a single sack and allowed more points than they allowed to Mount Union a year ago. Their offense and special teams picked up some of that slack, but the running lanes Hunter Clasen found last week might not be there against the Royals.
Riley's take: No. 12 UMHB at No. 5 Trinity: Both of these teams want this win badly, especially based on the losses each suffered in Week 1. In Texas, where it is plausible that these two will face each other in the playoffs at some point (assuming both reach the postseason), the winner of this game is likely to earn home field advantage in that potential playoff matchup. In the here and now, the defensive battle is going to be intriguing. Both Trinity and UMHB take great pride in their defensive performance and both have Preseason All-America linebackers in Caleb Harmel (Trinity) and Durand Hill (UMHB). 

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: No. 25 Salisbury. I expect the Sea Gulls will be a popular pick here this week. On the road for the second week in a row, this time to a Muhlenberg team that is receiving votes and looked very sharp in Week 1. Predictive modeling almost certainly runs counter to our poll and has Salisbury as a slight underdog. 
Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: No. 25 Salisbury. Not that we can tell much from Salisbury's first game or Muhlenberg's opener against Moravian, but among the teams not playing other ranked teams, this seems most likely.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: No. 25 Salisbury. Still, I am very impressed with how the Gulls have scheduled the top-flight Centennial teams (Muhlenberg this week and JHU next week) in non-conference action this year.
Frank's take: No. 22 Susquehanna (at Brockport). Brockport has been seeking a high-quality win to jumpstart the Golden Eagles program after a couple years of relative mediocrity, and this would be a signature 2023 win. Susquehanna will face a tough road scenario here.
Logan's take: Last week, I picked Salisbury, even though I thought they were still a slight favorite. This week, I'm picking No. 25 Salisbury again, because I have Muhlenberg favored straight up at home. Salisbury had basically the perfect triple-option game a week ago, scoring TDs on their first 2 drives, and then scoring in two plays to start the 2nd half, but they were also aided by 4 fumbles by W&L. On the other side, Muhlenberg had little issue covering a 31 point spread in Week 1.
Riley's take: No. 18 Ithaca. The Bombers couldn't quite keep up with Johns Hopkins in the season opener, and while I believe the biggest improvement in a team comes between Week 1 and Week 2, Endicott's defense is a force to be reckoned with. If Endicott can keep Ithaca out of the end zone and force field goals, the Gulls might find themselves in a position to win at home with a late score.

What record will the ranked teams making season debuts have this week?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: 2-1. Linfield is going to be a big favorite at Denison and should win comfortably. While I stay away from ranked vs. ranked games in the previous category, I think either Bethel or Wheaton will score a home upset to get a second win from this group.
Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: 2-1. On my ballot Wheaton is ahead of Oshkosh, so I have to go with that until shown otherwise.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: They'll end up 2-1, with only Bethel falling (to No. 3 Wartburg).
Frank's take: 2-1. I have Wheaton and Linfield winning, but Bethel falling to Wartburg.
Logan's take: 2-1. Linfield and 1 of Bethel/Wheaton. Who's ready for some math?!? (Pat knew there would be math when he asked me to join this panel.) Here are each team's win probabilities: 
Linfield @ Denison (93.5%)
Bethel vs. Wartburg (44.5%)
Wheaton vs. UW-Oshkosh (34.6%)
 
By multiplying win/loss probabilities, you can get the odds of each number of wins.
0 wins = 2.4%
1 win  = 37.1%
2 wins = 46.2%
3 wins = 14.4%
Riley's take: 2-1. I expect a statement win out of Linfield in its opener against Denison, and Wheaton has what it takes to upend UW-Oshkosh. Bethel will play Wartburg tough, but I'm not sure that anyone will be able to stop Hunter Clasen in the regular season.

 

Which under the radar game are you following?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: It’s almost unfair that Monmouth at Chicago is under the radar, but it’s hard to stand out with so many ranked vs ranked games. The MWC raises the curtain on conference play with this matchup between conference favorites. Both teams dropped tough games in Week 1. The winner will enjoy some breathing room until the end of the season when these teams eventually match up with two time defending champion Lake Forest.
Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: Dean vs. Nichols. After a pretty good Week 1 for the ECFC as a whole, this is a reasonable chance for the conference to pick up another non-conference victory.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Berry at LaGrange. There's no doubt that 99.9 percent of talk nationally about the SAA focuses on Trinity, but I'm interested to see how Berry ramps itself up in nonconference play before the matchup against the Tigers later this month.
Frank's take: Wilkes at RPI. RPI’s win vs. Dickinson wasn’t as strong as I would have expected, and Wilkes losing to King’s was a head-scratcher. Both of these teams have a chance to get a better week under their belts, but only one can walk away with the win. 
Logan's take: Pacific Lutheran at Concordia-Moorhead. A year ago, PLU tied for 2nd in the NWC, looking at times like they may be returning to a slot they occupied for a long time right behind Linfield in the conference hierarchy, but the early 2010's version of PLU usually beats SCIAC teams, and PLU failed to get their offense going last week. Similarly, Concordia has been in a years-long slump out of contention in the MIAC, and a Week 1 loss to the WIAC's 7th-place finisher from a year ago doesn't bode well. One of these two needs a bounce-back game to get on track.
Riley's take: Loras at Hope. Loras comes in as the underdog but with momentum after its 14-point comeback to beat Benedictine. Hope is seeking to bounce back from last week's loss to nationally-ranked Aurora. Hope is considered to be one of the better programs in the MIAA, so this will be a good test on their home turf, especially before a tough Week 3 matchup against Mount St. Joseph. Loras' Evan England might be the best dual-threat QB in the ARC, and if the Duhawks challenge Hope, it'll be behind another strong showing from England. 

 

Who will be the most surprising 2-0 team?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: In their third year, Keystone has a great opportunity to open the season with a double for the first time. The Giants were impressive defensively in holding Gallaudet to just six points in Week 1.  This week, Keystone goes on the road to Hartwick, who really struggled in a 34-11 loss at SUNY-Maritime.
Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: Alfred State. They've been close with Rochester in the past, and the Pioneers have a puncher's chance against the Yellowjackets this time around as well.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: UW-Eau Claire. Upending Coe this week will go a long way toward the Blugolds putting memories of last year behind them.
Frank's take: Keystone. A third-year team starting 2-0 is almost always something unusual, but a win vs. Hartwick Saturday would continue the Giants’ momentum.
Logan's take: Endicott (W vs. St. Lawrence last week, vs. Ithaca this week). Among teams who won as an underdog in Week 1, I have 10 of those teams pegged as an underdog again this week. Not only did Endicott win last week, they dominated, holding St. Lawrence to 111 yards of total offense and winning 31-0. Ithaca will be a tougher test, but they have already been upset once this season. I expect a close game, but if last week was an indication of each team's true talent, don't be surprised if Endicott vs. Hardin-Simmons in a couple weeks is a matchup of ranked teams.
Riley's take: University of New England. The Nor'easters pulled off a convincing win with their 44-28 victory over Coast Guard last week, and enter this week's matchup at Plymouth State as a very narrow favorite. Plymouth State won't be an easy out, increasing the difficulty in UNE's quest to start 2-0. But I liked what I saw against Coast Guard, and think that momentum carries into their first road matchup of 2023.

 

It’s a delicious week in rivalry games. Who wins the Glazer Bowl and the Chowder Bowl?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: Carroll seems likely to stay well ahead of Wisconsin Lutheran and hang on to the Golden Glazer in the second edition of this trophy game. In New England, the home team has won the last four Chowder Bowls. I’ll go with five in a row and a Mass. Maritime win on Friday night.
Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: I'm going Carroll and Mass. Maritime and also never combining glazed donuts and any form of clam chowder.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: A repeat of last year: Carroll and SUNY-Maritime.
Frank's take: Carroll gets the Glazer. SUNY-Maritime gets the Chowda.
Logan's take: Glazer Bowl - Carroll over WLC. Chowder Bowl - Mass. Maritime over SUNY-Maritime.
Riley's take: This might be Week 2 for us, but it's Week 1 for Carroll. That can be a double-edged sword for teams, but most importantly, they are fully healthy and return their five leading tacklers from 2022 on defense. They're my pick to win the Glazer Bowl. SUNY-Maritime is my pick to take home a win in the Chowder Bowl, behind a strong performance from QB Steven Stassi. They won by just 3 points in 2022, and it won't surprise me if it's that close again. 

Got picks? Put them in the comments!

Dec. 15: All times Eastern
Final
Cortland 38, at North Central (Ill.) 37
@ Salem, Virginia
Video Box Score Recap Photos
Dec. 9: All times Eastern
Final
North Central (Ill.) 34, at Wartburg 27
Box Score Recap
Final
Cortland 49, at Randolph-Macon 14
Box Score Recap Recap Recap Photos
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