A.J. Wingfield and the Bombers start the season in Baltimore. Photo by Larry Radloff, d3photography.com

Welcome to Quick Hits! If you're new to Division III football or D3football.com, Quick Hits is our weekly predictions feature. We've assembled a panel of Division III football writers and observers to give you the best takes on what the best games are, which teams are on upset alert, which games are under the radar, and a variety of other categories. Every week we'll ask six questions of our six panelists to get you ready for the upcoming weekend in Division III football!

We're excited to bring back last year's Quick Hits panel!  Your regular Hitters this season are Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: Like so many of your tailgates this weekend, there's a full blown feast of games of the week in Week 1- five top 25 matchups in all! I'm going to highlight No 9 Ithaca at No. 18 Johns Hopkins. The Bombers are coming off a run to the quarterfinals, while Johns Hopkins has had an entire offseason to justifiably stew over not being selected to partifcipate in those same playoffs. This is a huge game that will very quckly begin to establish a pecking order in the loaded Region 2.
	Pat's take: No. 4 Trinity (Texas) at No. 6 St. John's: This is a game that could end up being between the top teams in Region 3 and Region 6, once the regular-season dust settles. But it's also a big stretch for Trinity, as well -- the program has played Hardin-Simmons and Mary Hardin-Baylor as well as Wheaton in the state of Texas before, but this is a big trip to open the season.
	Ryan's take: No. 3 Mary Hardin-Baylor at No. 23 UW-River Falls. I picked it as the "non-conference game are you most anticipating" in the preseason 20 Questions, and I'm sticking with that. Both of these teams could be conference champs.
	Frank's take: No. 9 Ithaca at No. 18 Johns Hopkins. Even without Ryan Stevens returning as quarterback for the Blue Jays, the national roster JHU possesses will provide a huge challenge to an experience-laden Bombers team that wants badly to bounce back with a marquee win to set the stage for a repeat to their undefeated 2022 regular season campaign. It will be a great game on Homewood Field, where Johns Hopkins is extremely tough to beat.
	Logan's take: In terms of relative importance for each program and the eventual playoff field (I know it's only week 1), No. 11 UW-Whitewater at No. 19 John Carroll is the most important. Both teams have new head coaches, and both conferences will be vying for an at-large. UW-W has uncertainty at QB, while JCU has 5th year Joe Collins coming back.
	Riley's take: No. 4 Trinity (Texas) at No. 6 St. John's: Not only is this the lone Top 10 matchup of the week, but it is a contest between two programs that have a significant amount of talented upperclassmen. The quarterback matchup might be one of the best we see in the entire regular season, with fifth-year senior Tucker Horn (Trinity) going up against senior Aaaron Syverson (SJU). Both have incredible arm strength with tremendous accuracy and can change the game through the passing attack. That said, both defenses appear poised for strong seasons, which will create an interesting contest in Collegeville.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 24 Alma. The Scots 16-13 OT win in Ada last season caught most of us by surprise. Alma is definitey more seasoned one year later, but the Polar Bears will be a challenge physically and there's no chance that Dean Paul's squad gets caught looking ahead to OAC play this time around.
	Pat's take: No. 24 Alma. Ohio Northern nearly beat this team last year, well before Alma ended up going 11-0 to start the year. No, Carter St. John didn't play that entire game at QB for Alma, but also, the Scots won't be sneaking up on ONU this year. Alma is probably as good as last year, but that doesn't mean they will pull out this win.
	Ryan's take: No. 22 Susquehanna. Losing the starting quarterback and most of the offensive line to graduation is never a good thing, and the River Hawks have to kick off the season against a Bridgewater team that (somewhat clandestinely) went 9-2 last year and has almost all of its defense back and many key offensive players.
	Frank's take: I honestly think “None” is the proper option this week. I do think there’s a risk here for No. 3 UMHB at No. 23 UW-River Falls — I wouldn’t be shocked if River Falls wins this game based on the Cru’s need to still get consistency in key positions (while UWRF has back so many strong players from last year).
	Logan's take: I like to limit myself to matchups against unranked teams, which eliminates a whopping five matchups this week. I have three ranked teams as less than a TD favorite, No. 25 Salisbury (@ W&L), No. 22 Susquehanna (@ Bridgewater), and No. 20 Aurora (vs. Hope). Of those, the combination of playing styles between Salisbury & W&L, along with W&L's best-in-the-nation home field advantage, makes me lean towards Salisbury being most likely.
	Riley's take: No. 20 Aurora. Yes, the Spartans are at home. Yes, they return a stellar group that won two playoff games a year ago. But let's not forget that Hope won last year's meeting, 38-34, and could very well do so again. Quarterback Chase Brown returns for his fifth year with the Flying Dutch as does talented linebacker Bryce Debri, and safety Brady Howe, who entered last season as a Preseason All-American. I think Hope's defense will come up with enough stops to keep them in the game; the difference will be how many of those stops the Flying Dutch offense can take advantage of. In 2022, Hope scored touchdowns on 61% of its red zone opportunities.

Who will have the most successful head coaching debut?

	Greg's take: Vann Hunt, Manchester. Hunt takes over at Manchester after the Spartans struggled through a winless conference season in 2022. Manchester finds themselves at home and in an underdog position in Week 1 against North Park. I like the upset here to get the Hunt era off to a 1-0 start.
	Pat's take: Jon Poppe. Union starts its season against Hilbert, which is a good way for a new coach to get a win. Hilbert also has a new head coach, its second head coach in the two seasons of the program's history.
	Ryan's take: John Pont at Oberlin. Maybe this depends on how you define success, but the Yeomen have won just two games over the past four seasons. Being competitive and showing good energy on the field, even if they lose against Kalamazoo, will be significant.
	Frank's take: Jon Poppe (Union). The “Team Formerly Known as the Dutchmen” gives their new head coach a walk in the park with their opener at Hilbert, who went 0-7 last season. With a decent amount of returning starters, including a “charged up” quarterback Donovan Pacatte, Union should do the “Electric Slide” into the win column for Poppe.
	Logan's take: The vast majority of new coaches are heavy underdogs in Week 1, with the exceptions of JCU/UWW, Austin, Union. I legitimately have no idea how the JCU/UWW game is going to go, and the other two have layups in Week 1, so I'm going with Rob Erickson at UW-Eau Claire getting an upset W against Concordia-Moorhead.
	Riley's take: Jace Rindahl, UW-Whitewater: The Warhawks travel to No. 19 John Carroll in a Top 25 matchup right out of the gate. Rindahl is no stranger to UW-Whitewater, serving in his eighth year on the staff, but first as head coach. JCU is a tough out, especially playing on their home turf, which heightens the intensity of this matchup. Not to mention the fact that the result of this game could have playoff implications down the road. With a strong defensive effort, I anticipate Whitewater pulling out a statement victory under Rindahl's leadership.

Which under the radar game are you following? 

	Greg's take: I'm going to flex the alma mater muscles right out of the gate this season and spotlight Wabash at Hampden-Sydyney. There are no shortage of reasons to tune in to the fourth installment of The Gentlemen's Classic if D3football.com's 20 Questions panel is any indicator. Some panelists see a big jump for the Little Giants in 2023, and senior quarterback Liam Thompson was a nearly unaminous choice to lead the division in passing yards per game. H-SC head coach Marty Favret announced that 2023 will be his final season under the headset, so the Tigers will be keen to start his final season off with a victory. This series has been very entertaining, and Saturday's matchup in Farmville should continue that tradition.
	Pat's take: Concordia-Moorhead at UW-Eau Claire. I explained my reasoning in Podcast 331, but the short version is that this is a big game for a proud Blugold program that can't stand being in or near the WIAC basement. Rob Erickson, the team's third coach in five seasons, is the next person to get a crack at this.
	Ryan's take: Franklin and Marshall at Lebanon Valley. The Diplomats finished really strong in the second half of last year and have the majority of that experience coming back for this fall. The Lebanon Valley game will help show us where F&M is positioned right now and whether they'll be a talker for the Centennial crown.
	Frank's take: Springfield at Western New England (The Pynchon SAW Game). This crosstown rivalry is always special in Week 1, and with Springfield coming off a playoff season — and the Golden Bears looking to turn their 2022 standings around — this game should be intense from start to finish.
	Logan's take: Claremont-Mudd-Scripps at Chicago - two (or four, depending on how you're counting) of our nation's premier academic institutions, both with realistic shots of winning their conference. Both teams have outstanding defenses, and each offense leans heavily on their rushing attack, with C-M-S returning 1,000-yard rusher Justin Edwards.
	Riley's take: Howard Payne at George Fox: Both of these teams enter the season ranked within the Top 3 of their conference's preseason polls and there is plenty of excitement around these programs, both of whom return a significant number of experienced seniors. George Fox has an exceptional defense, led by Jacob Erickson up front and Kiegan Schaan in the secondary. The Bruins will clash with HPU quarterback Landon McKinney, the ASC Preseason Offensive Player of the Year, and an offense that has been highly effective when it comes to throwing the ball.

The MIAA lost just three games against non-conference opponents in the 2022 regular season.  How many games will the conference lose in Week 1? 

	Greg's take: While I'm tempted to go with three to match last year's total, I think we'll end up with five wins against two losses this week for the MIAA. I believe Aurora will hold serve at home, and I think we'll get a mini-upset on the road from either Franklin (vs. Olivet) or Carthage (vs. Albion).
	Pat's take: Three. I listed one above, and think that Olivet and Hope could join the list.
	Ryan's take: Three. To Oberlin, Franklin, Aurora
	Frank's take: Zero. I think the schedule is favorable enough such that the MIAA will run their table in Week 1.
	Logan's take: Two (see win% for each MIAA school below) - Aurora probably comes into their game vs. Hope ready to roll, and despite being moderate favorites in each game, one of Alma, Olivet, or Albion is likely to lose. ONU @ Alma (71%) Oberlin @ Kalamazoo (91%) Olivet @ Franklin (63%) Albion @ Carthage (79%) Adrian @ Elmhurst (90%) Hope @ Aurora (34%) Trine @ Anderson (99%)
	Riley's take: I anticipate most of these games to be one-sided in favor of the MIAA team, though I expect Hope-Aurora (see above) to be tight, and I think Franklin may have what it takes to send Olivet home with the MIAA's lone defeat of Week 1.

Which new look conference will have the better record in Week 1, the Landmark Conference or the Centennial Conference?

	Greg's take: The Centennial Conference.  The Centennial looks really good for five wins, regardliess of what happens at Johns Hopkins.  The Landmark certainly has winnable games, but five or more wins for the Landmark doesn't appear likely.
	Pat's take: The Centennial Conference, and it might not be close. My back-of-the-envelope math suggests the Centennial could go 5-2 and the Landmark 2-5.
	Ryan's take: Centennial. I expect five wins from them, while the Landmark may only get three overall.
	Frank's take: I have it as a tie, both going 4-3 overall. For the CC, I have Muhlenberg, F&M, Ursinus, and Gettysburg winning. In the Landmark, I have Catholic, Wilkes, Keystone, and Susquehanna winning this week.
	Logan's take: The Centennial, and it's not going to be close. I make four Centennial teams - Ursinus, Muhlenberg, F&M, and Gettysburg - as multi-TD favorites this week. The biggest favorite for the Landmark is Catholic over McDaniel by 8.
	Riley's take: The Centennial Conference. I actually don't think either conference finishes above .500 in Week 1, but I like the Centennial's chances against their opposition to kick off the 2023 season.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!