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| Photos by Tom Nettleton and Dean Reid, d3photography.com |
This incredible 2022 season has reached the finish line in Annapolis, Maryland where No. 1 North Central is set to square off against No. 2 Mount Union. As is our tradition here at Quick Hits, our predictions for the Stagg Bowl will be a little less quick and we'll also bring in some extra expertise to give their takes and predicitons for the national championship game. The Quick Hits panel has been making these predictions dating back to 1999 when the panel correctly picked what everyone in Division III thought was an upset - Pacific Lutheran over Rowan. The panel has correctly picked the winner 21 of the last 22 Stagg Bowls. Mary Hardin-Baylor snapped the panel's perfect streak in 2021 winning the national championship in spite of the panel's 6-4 split in favor of North Central.
None of our panelists consulted with one another prior to their predictions. Feel free to add your pick and analysis in the comments section below.
Please note that one of our guest Quick Hitters did not submit a pick, so currently we have just one guest picker with a Mount Union connection on this list. Our apologies.
— Greg Thomas
Pat Coleman, D3football.com publisher and executive editor
I think this is a game, and I think at the end North Central gets one more defensive stop or gets one more touchdown. They get out ahead somewhere. I don't know that it's Mount Union mistakes. Like we saw last week, Mount Union mistakes in the semifinals last year against North Central seemingly at inopportune times. I don't even know that it's necessarily that. I think we see just a good straight up game played against each other.
I think North Central completes more passes than people anticipate. I think that DeAngelo Hardy has a better game than most people think. I think that the Mount Union linebackers have some trouble working with passes over the middle. I think those would be available if that's something that North Central chooses to make use of.
And then once they do and complete some of those, you got space for Luke Lehnen, already in fourth gear by the time he takes his second step. And I just feel like that is just a little bit too much for Mount Union to handle.
I think Mount Union is very talented. People may remember I had them number No. 1 in my ballot for a good portion of the year up until that kind of lull at the end of the season where they gave up a bunch of fourth quarter points to John Carroll and then they did it again to Baldwin Wallace and nearly lost. We haven't seen too much of that Mount Union team in the playoffs and I don't expect to see it on Friday. But I do expect to see North Central come away with this win.
North Central 35, Mount Union 24.
Keith McMillan, editor emeritus and originator of Around The Nation
After what we witnessed in the semifinals, there don’t appear to be a lot of paths for a Mount Union win -- short of North Central cornerback Antwain Walker missing the flight to Annapolis. After Baldwin Wallace and Wartburg, feel confident in the Purple Raiders late in a close game. But 13- and 21-point wins over playoff teams are as "close" as anyone has played North Central this year. Given the way Walker made UMHB's Brandon Jordan work for his five catches, we can assume he’ll match up primarily with Wayne Ruby Jr. and they'll each win their fair share. But Geoff Dartt, with Larry Kehres in the box, will have to devise an attack that won't depend on Ruby to dominate, or need the running of DeAndre Parker, who was on crutches last week. Mount Union's best-in-the-biz offensive minds were creative against an outstanding Wartburg defense. However, North Central can play the run as well as Wartburg, yet has a superior pass rush and secondary. The Purple Raiders might need to rely on screens, jet sweeps, traps and whams to use the North Central D-line's ability against itself. Meantime, there’s no stopping Ethan Greenfield, D’Angelo Hardy, Luke Lehnen and company. Mount Union might try to limit possessions, gamble for turnovers or hope red-zone defense holds the Cardinals to field-goal attempts. If all goes to plan, the Purple Raiders can eke out one more dramatic finish. But more likely, it'll be in the range of North Central 35, Mount Union 14.
Ryan Tipps, D3football.com Senior Editor
Mount Union and North Central are the only two teams this season that have spent multiple weeks at the No. 1 spot on my Top 25 ballot. However, NCC spent about the last two-thirds of the season there. The Cardinals have absolutely been a leave-no-doubt kind of team all season, from the opening thumping of my alma mater to the crushing takedown of the defending national champions. They remind me of, ironically, the lights-out Mount Union teams of the early 2000s. This Stagg Bowl will have tons of athleticism and gobs playmakers, and the way I've seen North Central control the line and have such a multi-faceted run approach (from a quarterback who can move to an All-American rusher to a second All-Region back), it's the kind of thing that can wear down even a deep team like Mount Union. All that said, I'll lean on the North Central defense to be a major reason the Cardinals secure the win.
North Central 30, Mount Union 21.
Greg Thomas, Around The Nation Columnist
1 vs. #2 is a special moment in any sport, and we'll get just that Friday night in Annapolis. Both teams have been dominant on both sides of the ball, so I've had to dig deeper to find a differentiator. In the semifinal round, Wartburg exploited the middle the field repeatedly. Whether Mount Union was caught overplaying the run or trailing crossing receivers, those issues will be be present on Friday- with the added threat of Luke Lehnen who has been North Central's most dangerous offensive weapon in this postseason. Mount Union's offense will be prepared. Some of the very best offensive minds in the division are on that sideline and they will have a plan to move the ball and score. The Purple Raiders will stress North Central's defense more than any opponent this season. I don't expect a track meet, but I do think both teams can sustain drives that finish in the end zone. In the end, I give advantages here to North Central at the line of scrimmage, on both sides of the ball, and their ability to win those matchups will provide the difference.
North Central 38, Mount Union 31.
Frank Rossi, D3football.com Stagg Bowl sideline reporter, Co-host In the (D3FB) Huddle
I’ll start this by saying I won’t be shocked if this prediction is wrong (and neither will 25,000 players and their families across #d3fbnation. Having said that, we have a battle of a team that finds ways to win (see Mount Union vs. Baldwin-Wallace & Wartburg) vs. a team that seems to be able to surge early and never really look back. What was most impressive to me in the UMHB game for North Central was their ability to turn on the high-speed gear twice in that game — a large early lead, and a late huge surge. That ability to idle and re-surge is a sign of a deep and energized team even this late in to the season.
Mount Union can definitely win this game — but the deep ball probably won’t be there for most of the game, as UMHB found out. They’ll have to apply the same “take what they give us” approach to have a chance to win as they did vs. Wartburg last week. The issue is the number of offensive weapons NCC has, especially compared to Wartburg last week. I think the North Central defense is about even with Wartburg’s, but the Cardinals’ offense is superior to the Knights’ offense. On a neutral field, I give North Central the edge, although I sense Mount Union will have one more attempt at a late comeback that could make this game very interesting.
North Central 30, Mount Union 27.
Logan Hansen, Hansen Ratings Creator, Quick Hits Panelist
North Central is on the cusp of one of the most dominating seasons in D-III history. The only thing that stands in their way is a Mount Union squad with something to prove. What could go wrong? I was extremely impressed by Braxton Plunk's ability to extend plays in the semifinals, an ability he'll need to use again this week, but he'll likely need to protect the ball better against the Cardinals than he did a week ago, especially on the goalline, with the Cardinals ranking in the top 5 nationally in both interceptions and pass breakups. When North Central has the ball, I expect them to continue to have success running the ball, even against a Purple Raider defense that has shut down opponents’ rushing attacks all season (the Purple Raiders now rank first in my opponent-adjusted efficiency). This type of threat of the QB running is something the Raiders have not experienced from any of their opponents this season. Only Delaware Valley had a QB with a similar number of designed rush attempts as Lehnen, but Lehnen averages twice as many yards per carry. We’ve also never seen the Cardinals have to throw the ball to win this season, but I have no doubt they would be capable if Plunk & Co. are able to turn this into a shootout.
North Central 49, Mount Union 31.
Riley Zayas, Managing Editor Tru To The Cru, Quick Hits Panelist
It's rare that we actually end up seeing No. 1 vs. No. 2 playing for the Stagg Bowl, but a narrow win for Mount Union on Saturday, combined with North Central's dominant semifinal victory, sets up that very situation in Annapolis. For North Central, it starts with defense, as we witnessed in the Cardinals' 49-14 victory over UMHB. The NCC defensive front held UMHB to just 29 rushing yards, and intercepted Crusaders QB Kyle King twice. Against Mount Union, generally regarded as the nation's top passing attack, a strong defensive effort will be vital. If the Cardinals can pressure Braxton Plunk like they pressured King, it should be a successful evening in NCC's third straight title game appearance. But Mount Union seems ready to combat that, led by the duo of Plunk and Wayne Ruby Jr., both of whom have topped the national stat categories. The Purple Raiders are effective when completing short passes and keeping the chains moving. If Plunk has more receiving options open than just Ruby, as he did late in the win over Wartburg, along with some consistent rushing gains, MU will be awfully hard to stop. I think this one comes down to NCC's defense against MU's offense. And I haven't seen a defense this season that plays with the level of intensity and aggression that NCC does, so give me the Cardinals in a seven-point win.
North Central 27, Mount Union 20.
Adam Irgang, 1997-2000 Mount Union Tight End, 3-time NCAA Champion
Statistically these two teams are almost even. Top 5 in almost every meaningful category, with North Central being stronger running the ball, and Mount Union being the stronger passing team. Each teams’ ability to slow down the others strength is going to be a major factor. If it’s possible to slow down the rushing attack of North Central the Purple Raiders may well be the team to do it. They lead the nation in time of possession and rushing defense (after last week). North Central isn’t too far behind in TOP and leads the nation in rushing. Since both teams can’t hold the ball for 34 minutes, I predict the Purple Raiders will use TOP to keep Greenfield and Lehnen off the field and force the Cardinals to throw more passes. I’m taking my Alma Mater - Mount Union to come from behind late in the 2 nd half and hold off a last-minute drive from the Cardinals and win their first National Title this decade.
Mount Union 37, North Central 34.
Grant Sabo, North Central alumnus and color analyst for North Central Football on NCTV-17
When looking at the Stagg Bowl matchup this year, it really comes down to breaking things down unit by unit. The most improved unit since last season is the Cardinal defense. They have only allowed more than 2 scores in any game this season one time, and that was against archrival Wheaton in the first week of October. They were even able to shut down UMHB’s King to Jordan connection last weekend, which should give some sort of clue on how they’ll handle the vaunted air attack of Plunk, Ruby & Co. Nobody has been able to run on the Cardinals all year, and I don’t expect that to change Friday night. On the other side of the ball, while some teams have been able to limit the Cardinal ground attack for portions of a game, nobody has been able to do it for the entirety of one. This is where the rubber meets the road. UMU hasn’t given up more than 95 yards on the ground to any of their opponents this season. If the Purple Raiders are able to hem in Greenfield, Hill, and Lehnen, they give themselves a chance. If they can’t—this has the potential to get ugly.
North Central 42, Mount Union 27.
Alex Campbell, play-by-play announcer for North Central Football on NCTV-17
The North Central Cardinals entered the postseason with the nation’s top ranked scoring offense and defense, combining for an average margin of victory of greater than 50 points, and those numbers haven’t looked like a fluke over the last four weeks.
Offensively, they’ve only been slightly slowed down by the 3-4 scheme and impressive lateral speed of Carnegie Mellon’s defense, while demolishing Lake Forest, Ithaca and even Mary Hardin-Baylor. Defensively, they’ve continued to be incredibly stout with only 28 points
conceded in those four games.
Ethan Greenfield continues to be the center of the Cardinals offense, but it’s quarterback Luke Lehnen who has led the rushing attack each of the last three weeks as teams have been stumped on how to contain him. He also continues to find DeAngelo Hardy several times a game despite frequent double-coverage, and the semifinal win over Mary Hardin-Baylor showed there’s no shortage of supporting cast members who can contribute to the passing game.
On defense, the nation’s best defensive line is fully healthy for maybe the first time all year, while linebacker Sam Taviani and cornerback Antwain Walker are coming off season-best performances. I thought whoever won the NCC-UMHB semifinal would be a heavy favorite in the Stagg Bowl, and the way each semifinal went combined with the recent history between the Cardinals and Purple Raiders only makes me believe that more strongly. I expect Friday night to be a coronation for what has been wire-to-wire the best team in the country.
North Central 50, Mount Union 13.
Got picks? Put them in the comments!