Running into the semifinals. Photos by Doug Sasse, Larry Radloff, Caleb Williams and Tom Nettleton, d3photography.com

The chase for Walnut & Bronze is down to just four teams. North Central and UMHB were the last two standing one year ago — only one of them will make a return trip to the Stagg Bowl. Mount Union's Stagg Bowl credentials are unparalled while their opponent, Wartburg, is playing in the final four for the very first time. Our panel of experts previews this weekend's semifinals and predicts which two teams we'll see at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium next Friday in Stagg Bowl XLIX. 

Our playoff crew is Keith McMillan, Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Wartburg at Mount Union, 12 p.m. EST, ESPN+

Keith's take:  Second-ranked Mount Union might become the rare team to reach a Stagg Bowl without facing a top-10 opponent. The Purple Raiders have faced a top-10 defense though, at Delaware Valley last week, and got playmakers to rise to the occasion often enough — a 54-yard run here, 36-yard catch there — to grind out a win. But if we're talking about the offense, even with a Gagliardi Trophy finalist QB in this game, we're looking at it backwards. Mount Union is statistically the best defense in the country, and Wartburg isn't far behind. Weather in Alliance should be in the 40s. We're not expecting 45-42 here. We should see a lot of Hunter Clasen and DeAndre Parker, teams content to play safeties deep then come up and tackle, and perhaps a field-position battle. Wartburg's had the tougher path so far, but in tight games, lean on the team with the best playmakers. Mount Union 20, Wartburg 13.

Ryan's take:  Mount Union was more sluggish on offense last week than I expected they would be, but the truth is, that unit didn't need to do more. Mount got enough points in the first quarter to win this game, and that's a huge testament to their athleticism and defensive game plan. Wartburg, on the other hand, hasn't trailed much this postseason, and certainly not late in the game, so finding themselves with their back against the wall at any point could force them out of their rhythm. The Purple Raiders are a team that is great at forcing mistakes and capitalizing off opponents' shortfalls. Mount Union 28, Wartburg 17. 

Pat's take:  This shapes up as a super-intriguing matchup of great defense vs. prolific passing offense (Plunk and Ruby, for starters), and people say things about defense winning championships. Wartburg has had one of the most impressive defenses in Division III football all season and will need it on Saturday in Alliance, Ohio. Meanwhile, Mount Union has had lackluster second halves in a couple of regular season games in November and the Purple Raiders certainly didn't put Delaware Valley away, not in the usual way. Del Val had defensive prowess up front, and so does Wartburg. They had players in the secondary who can make plays. Meanwhile, Wartburg has more offense to work with and better skilled players and should be capable of more than six points against Mount Union. They shouldn't be overly intimidated, either, having beaten UW-La Crosse and won at St. John's. But a first trip to Alliance rarely goes according to plan, and until shown otherwise, I have to stick with history, and with that in mind, I pick as follows: Mount Union 24, Wartburg 22.

Frank's take: Sometimes you need a good scare or a loss to motivate your team to play to their potential. That’s what happened to Mount Union after the Baldwin Wallace scare — the Purple Raiders have played much better, mistake-free football in the playoffs thus far. I think Wartburg will challenge in this game for a while, but Aurora did expose some inconsistency in their defense. Those are inconsistencies that Braxton Plunk and his offense can exploit. The turnover margin for Wartburg is insane this year (+28 vs. +11 for Mount Union), and if Mount Union starts making mistakes, the ball hawks of Wartburg could very well win this game. Yet, I think it will be the Purple Raiders’ day after they learned just how wrong a game can go if you play with mistakes and under your potential on this stage: Mount Union 27, Wartburg 14.

Greg's take: This is a classic strength on strength game. Both teams will play Saturday with elite defenses. Wartburg leads the nation in rush defense, complimented by a pass defense that leads the nation in interceptions- including nine in the postseason alone. Mount Union boasts a passing game that features a Gagliardi Trophy finalist as its passer and the Region 4 Offensive Player of the Year as its top pass catcher. Wayne Ruby, Jr.’s season has propelled him near the top of Mount Union’s very distinguished list of wide receivers. Wartburg’s defense will not have seen (consume!) a quarterback-receiver pair like these- but they’ve seen plenty of good quarterbacks this season (something like five in the Central game alone). The Knights will make scoring a chore for Mount Union- the question is how Wartburg will find points against a defense that is just as good as their own. I’m increasingly drawn to how tested Wartburg is. Ruby aside, they’ve played -- and beat -- teams with athletes that are a reasonable facsimile of what they’ll see in Alliance. The experience at St. John’s tells me the Knights won’t be awestruck on the road this week, which makes this a coin flip for me. A score from the defense or specials decides this game- and sends Wartburg to Annapolis. Wartburg 19, Mount Union 17.

Logan's take:   When he's targeting Wayne Ruby, Braxton Plunk is the most efficient quarterback in the country. Targeting anyone else, and he's barely above average. The biggest question of this game will be whether Wartburg's best in the nation pass defense can force turnovers, get to Plunk, or otherwise stifle Ruby enough to allow their offense to keep pace. Turnovers, field position, and big plays (and preventing them) will determine this outcome, and special teams look to be a wash, but like I was reminded when I had Mount Union #1 on my Top 25 ballot, it’s not 2017 anymore. Wartburg 21, Mount Union 20.

Riley's take:  Here it is...one of the most explosive offenses of the year against what might just be the best defensive team in these playoffs. There is no clear favorite in either of these semifinal matchups, and despite MU playing on its home turf, I see this playing out evenly. Wartburg's defensive front was impressive against Aurora in the quarterfinals, stopping the Spartans in their tracks for 49 rushing yards. But the Knights also gave up 11 first downs via passing plays, something that cannot happen if Wartburg seeks a trip to Annapolis. MU is home to the Braxton Plunk-Wayne Ruby duo, who have combined for 27 receptions for 384 yards during the postseason. Limiting Ruby's touches is priority No. 1 for the Wartburg defense, but with that said, Plunk has reliable receiving options in Jaden Manley and Orreon Finley. This will be the matchup that could alter the outcome of the game. Nobody has really found a way to limit MU's production through the air this season (except Baldwin Wallace for a few quarters), but if there is a candidate to do so, it's Wartburg. It'll be close, but MU punches its ticket to the Stagg Bowl for the first time since 2018. Mount Union, 33, Wartburg, 26.

  

Mary Hardin-Baylor at North Central, 3:30 p.m. EST/2:30 CST, ESPN+

Keith's take:  If this rematch of last year's championship isn't this year's defacto title game, it will at least produce the favorite to win the first Annapolis Stagg Bowl six days later. As I begin this, I don't know who I'm picking. And I’ve already burned 49 of my 175 words. North Central’s smothering defense has allowed only 20 points since Oct. 1, and 74 rushing yards in three playoff games. Mary Hardin-Baylor could roll up that much by halftime if it starts like it finished last week. Key playmakers from the 2021 Stagg Bowl are back. Someone — Greenfield? Thomas? Gilroy? Avila? Hardy? Dunk? Either Hill? — will have to be great on Saturday. NCC needs the best versions of Julian Bell, Antwain Walker, Zack Orr and Sam Taviani as it tries to slow Kyle King's passing to KJ Miller, Jamaal Hamilton and Brandon Jordan. No. 1 NCC is at home and carrying the chip on the shoulder from Canton. But while the Cardinals have mowed down every team in their path, UMHB has cut its teeth against UW-Whitewater, Hardin-Simmons, Trinity and Bethel. The tough-game experience pays off for the Cru in a late triumph. Mary Hardin-Baylor 31, North Central 24.

Ryan's take: I waffled hard on this pick, because North Central hasn't been challenged the way UMHB has been this postseason, while the Cru haven't exactly been the pillar of consistency in their game play -- yet they've definitely hit the gas pedal hard when the time was right. I don't think NCC will be able to win this if it becomes a shootout, but I've had the Cardinals in the No. 1 spot on my ballot most of the season. So with that, I elevate the defenses and think both teams will be held to their lowest points of the year. North Central 21, Mary Hardin-Baylor 20.

Pat's take:  It's been good to revisit the 2021 Stagg Bowl a little bit, one year later. That's a year in which Luke Lehnen has had another 13 games under his belt. One where he comes into the game healthy rather than banged up. The defensive shoe is on the other foot this year as well, one where the UMHB back seven is the younger unit and has to contend with the Cardinals. But is there enough of a Cardinals passing game? Outside of Deangelo Hardy, is there a great passing connection for North Central? Might it not even matter, if Ethan Greenfield, Lehnen and Terrence Hill combine for about 50 carries? On the other side, there is still the challenge of trying to cover K.J. Miller, trying to cover Brandon Jordan. Up front, the Cardinals defensive line may make it difficult for Kyle King to find those players downfield. This won't be as much like the Stagg Bowl blowout as it will be like any other battle between highly ranked Division III football teams this year. North Central 30, Mary Hardin-Baylor 24.

Frank's take: I’ve been asked by some folks this week, “Frank, after seeing both teams in person this year, who do you think will win the game?” Some 51 weeks ago, I actually believed UMHB was the better team and picked them to win the Stagg Bowl. This year, the inconsistency on defense for the Cru concerns me greatly for their chances to win. Against Muhlenberg, they looked strong despite giving up a lot of yards. A week later, Whitewater exploited their weaknesses. Similarly, at Trinity, they shined for most of the game, but a week later, Bethel exploited the Cru defense again in a near-miss. North Central’s offense has improved since last year. Luke Lehnen is playing methodical, powerful football at the QB position making excellent RPO reads, and his speed is an immense weapon as we’ve seen the last two weeks. When you can get hurt in the air by Hardy, on the ground by Greenfield and/or Terrence Hill, or with the speed of Lehnen, it means that North Central will be able to score touchdowns Saturday. With what the defense learned about the weapons UMHB had in the Stagg Bowl and still has today, I think this game is much more balanced, will NCC better when looking at all three facets of the game in terms of strength and especially consistency this season. North Central 31, Mary Hardin-Baylor 20.

Greg's take: The cast is largely the same, but the backdrop is quite different for this rematch of last year’s national championship game. UMHB entered the Stagg Bowl last year on a heater teams rarely achieve. Instead of eight quarters of the hottest football known to Division III, the Cru enter this semifinal riding 14 minutes of the best football we’ve seen in 2022.  Have they caught a big enough wave to ride through Naperville and into a proper defense of their championship?  North Central has the top scoring offense and defense in the division. The Cardinal defensive line of Dan Lester, Tyler Rich, and Dan Gilroy are as good as dominant as it gets in the division and the offensive line headlined by Jeske Maples, Sam Pryor, and Jarod Thornton are a punishing group that have paved the way for an offense that is rushing for 333 yards per game - in the postseason. If championships are won from the lines out, I don’t think anybody has two lines better than North Central.  I see the Cardinals winning that matchup in a way they didn’t last December and advancing to their third straight national championship game. North Central 34, Mary Hardin-Baylor 21.

Logan's take: North Central’s rushing attack is not only the most efficient in the country, but the gap from 1st to 2nd is as big as the gap from 2nd to 20th. The weakest unit left in this tournament is the UMHB defense, which ranks only 24th nationally in opponent-adjusted efficiency. Although still very good, they’re a far cry from the unit that gave North Central fits a year ago. The Cru offense appears to be hitting its stride, producing similar numbers as they did after the Trinity game last season, but North Central's defense is considerably better than 2021. North Central 33, Mary Hardin-Baylor 24.

Riley's take:  I've heard it said in a few conversations that this is the matchup it seems everyone wanted to see in these playoffs, a rematch of the 2021 Stagg Bowl, with a spot in the 2022 Stagg Bowl on the line. Both UMHB and NCC have executed well in recent semifinal matchups, with UMHB having won its last four played in this round dating back to 2016, and NCC with semifinal victories in both 2019 and 2021. Experience doesn't lack on either of these rosters, and interestingly enough, both teams share a number of similarities. Both defenses lost a number of key contributors following last season, but have filled the voids and to me, that's the matchup to watch. Each offense has functioned in these playoffs like a well-oiled machine, UMHB led by quarterback Kyle King and NCC headlined by running back Ethan Greenfield, so it will take an exceptional defensive effort to keep either of these offensive attacks at bay. It will start with stopping the run, but defending the pass will be just as critical. It might just be the closest game of the day, with UMHB's passing attack giving the Crusaders a late score and the upper hand in Chicagoland. Mary Hardin-Baylor 33, North Central, 31.    

Got picks? Put them in the comments!