|
| K.J. Miller photo by Doug Sasse, d3photography.com |
Among the 2022 quarterfinalists are some of the usual suspects, one team on the precipice of reaching heights the program hasn't reached in nearly 30 years, and three programs aiming to set a new highwater mark for their program. Aurora or Wartburg will be a first time semifinalist, but who will it be? And which other three teams will join them? Our playoff panel is back this week to break down the quarterfinals and predict who will move through to the final four.
Our playoff crew is Keith McMillan, Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.
— Greg Thomas
Aurora at Wartburg
|
Keith's take: I'd be lying if I told you I had a good feel for this game, with Carter Markham taking over at QB for the Knights and Aurora's surprising run through UW-Whitewater and Alma to the quarters. The Spartans gave up 38 points to Hope in a season-opening loss, but have been much better defensively since midseason. QB Josh Swanson has four touchdown passes in each playoff game, many of significant length, in staking Aurora to big second-half leads. Wartburg's constant has been an elite defense, and it intercepted St. John's quarterback Aaron Syverson four times last week, which should worry Swanson's coaches. The Knights have only allowed two of 12 opponents to reach 20 points, and it's likely they'll be able to keep the score low again. Whether or not they have enough offense remains to be seen, which makes this perhaps Saturday's most intriguing game to watch. Wartburg 21, Aurora 19 |
|
Pat's take: I find myself ... picking Don Beebe's team to the national semifinals ... interesting. But assuming that Wartburg's offense won't be clicking at full throttle after the way Nile McLaughlin had to be helped off the field, and that Aurora will have enough weapons to get the job done. Wish I were at that one! Aurora 31, Wartburg 25
|
|
Ryan's take: I've incorrectly picked against Wartburg during the first two rounds, so take of that what you will. The Knights have impressed during the playoffs, but the ankle injury to quarterback Nile McLaughlin definitely gives me pause. Both Wartburg and Aurora have massively impressive postseason wins on their resumes, so the potential is there. Aurora has never trailed this postseason, and I wonder how they will hold up if they find themselves chasing points at any stage against Wartburg. Wartburg 31, Aurora 23 |
|
Frank's take: It's time for the adage "Defense wins championships" to play out on this stage. The Wartburg defense has been tremendous all season, and the two fourth-qaurter INTs vs. St. John's last weekend should be a great reminder of this fact. Aurora will score a couple touchdowns, but it won't be enough to win this game. Wartburg 20, Aurora 14 |
|
Greg's take: No doubt two of the biggest stories in these playoffs. Aurora has the result of the tournament that will be remembered long after this tournament is over. Wartburg has collected two wins over teams that were on the short list of expected Stagg Bowl contenders. Wartburg's defense nabs the headlines, but this has been a very capable offense all season. With Nile MacLaughlin's status in the air, and a shaky-yet-effective outing from Carter Markham in the fourth quarter against St. John's, I think the expected result of this game shifts from a strong lean toward Wartburg, to a toss up. Wartburg's defense is special, and will carry the Knights into the national semifinal for the first time in their program's history. |
|
Logan's take: After steamrolling their regular season schedule and holding their 2 top 10 playoff opponents to their season lows for points, Wartburg's defense is in rarefied air. Their Quarterback situation is unknown after Nile McLaughlin left the game vs. St. John's, but their backup is electric, even if he's unproven. Aurora's offense will move the ball, but they'll have trouble finishing (they haven't made a FG all season), and their special teams will force them to drive long fields all game.
Wartburg 28, Aurora 14
|
|
Riley's take: I'm not sure there's much point in trying to slow Aurora's momentum. The Spartans are playing their best football at the perfect time, and riding high after massive road wins in the first two rounds. That said, I wasn't sure anyone would be able to stop St. John's before the semis, and Wartburg found a way last weekend. Wartburg continues to be extremely impressive in all facets of the defense; there's not a good way to navigate around them. Aurora will need to stay balanced, as the Spartans were against Alma, to challenge Wartburg's defense, and open up chances for big gains. Behind the home crowd, however, I like Wartburg's chances for a run to the semis.
Wartburg 23, Aurora 14
|
Mount Union at Delaware Valley
|
|
Keith's take: This is a high-scoring pick for a matchup of the No. 1 and 2 total and scoring defenses in the country, but we can toss out stats rolled up against Muskingums and Misericordias. Except these: Delaware Valley is the most-penalized team -- not still alive, or in the postseason field; they're 240th in Division III, averaging more than 10 game. The 12-0 Aggies have papered over their flaws with exceptional team speed and an even more exceptional defensive line, but Mount Union is built to neutralize those advantages. The Purple Raiders have only allowed 13 sacks in 12 games, so if Yusuf Aladinov (21.5 TFL, 7.5 sacks) and Michael Nobile (17, 11.5) can't wreak havoc chasing Braxton Plunk (44 TDs, 5 INT), there's no way the Aggies hold up on the back end against Wayne Ruby Jr. (18 yards per catch, 26 TDs) and Jaden Manley (14, 7). |
|
|
Pat's take: The big storyline everyone has been complaining about all week is moot, as eventually Braxton Plunk and the Mount Union offense will adjust to the pressure up front from the Delaware Valley defense and will go on to win comfortably. Mount Union 35, Delaware Valley 15 |
|
|
Ryan's take: The Purple Raiders are going to do what the Purple Raiders do at this point in the season, and DelVal's need to rally to win last week's game doesn't give me a lot of confidence that they'll hold up well against Mount. Behind Plunk, Ruby, Parker, Moore, McMillen and so many others, I think Mount has more standout performers than the Aggies will be able to handle. Mount Union 34, Delaware Valley 10 |
|
|
Frank's take: It's been a while since the Aggies played the powerhouse from Alliance, and that usually bodes poorly for the team that has to readjust to the speed and size Mount Union presents. Louis Barrios, IV will be able to move the ball at times, but Plunk-to-Ruby TDs will still happen in this game. The outside chance for a DVU win relies on the Nobile brothers being able to penetrate the UMU OL for constant pressure on Plunk, but I don't see that happening enough. Mount Union 31, Delaware Valley 17
|
|
|
Greg's take: This won't be the first time these Aggies face a top tier Division III team. Many of Delaware Valley's seniors played against soon-to-be-champion North Central in the 2019 quarterfinal round. Delaware Valley was within seven points of the Cardinals in the fourth quarter of that game. The Aggies have the physical talent to compete in this game if they can avoid some of the self-destructive tendencies they are able to get away with in MAC play. Mount Union won't be so forgiving if Delaware Valley is penalty prone. In the end, fewer mistakes and an extremely dialed in Braxton Plunk will get Mount Union through this round- and back to Alliance for the semis. |
|
|
Logan's take: Delaware Valley has outstanding athletes, but at this stage of the postseason, every team does. Will DelVal, the most penalized team in the country, be able to stay ahead of the chains enough to prevent Mount Union's defense (8th nationally in sack rate) from causing havoc in the backfield? I doubt it. Likewise, DelVal's defense is putting up their usual outstanding numbers, but they've faced only the 189th toughest slate of offenses in the country. Mount Union will be a different beast. |
|
|
Riley's take: Sure, there's the drama of Mount Union not hosting this quarterfinal matchup and all that. But ultimately, what intrigues me is the clash between Del Val's exceptional defense and the prowess of MU's offense, regardless of where the game is played. Both rank in the top five nationally in various statistical categories, and there is little doubt that this is the best defense Braxton Plunk & Co. have faced this season. If the Purple Raiders can get first-half traction offensively, and hold DVU's offense at bay for a full 60 minutes (as DVU proved last Saturday is necessary), I like MU's chances, even 393 miles away from Alliance.
Mount Union 23, Delaware Valley 16
|
Ithaca at North Central
|
|
Keith's take: If the Cardinals were unimpressive against Carnegie Mellon in Round 2, as one tweet alleged, and still won by 21, here's guessing they'll be unimpressive again. The route Ithaca's taken to the quarterfinals has not been impressive, though the Bombers have impressed along the way, and dispatched RPI, Union and Cortland State impressively to end the regular season. There are no bad 12-0 teams, so what this comes down to for the Bombers is matchups and game style. If they can put up points, perhaps unconventionally through special teams or defense, they'll give themselves a chance. North Central won the championship in 2019 with offensive stars, but it's No. 1 this year because of a defense that has allowed 13 points in the past eight games. It's hard to see a defense that stout faltering this early, so I'd pencil in the Cardinals to advance, even if it's "unimpressive." |
|
|
Pat's take: It will be interesting to see if Ithaca can keep North Central in check and Luke Lehnen in the pocket, because that did not work with Zac Boyes and Cortland in the Cortaca Jug game. Of course, Ithaca did win that game, and I'm picking otherwise, because North Central all around will be a little more skilled on offense. North Central 31, Ithaca 26 |
|
|
Ryan's take: The fact that a ground-based team like Springfield was able to move the ball and put up points on Ithaca last week doesn't bode particularly well for going up against the only team in the country that's statistically better than the Pride at rushing: North Central. And North Central brings some pass dynamic that Springfield doesn't have, as well as a stouter defense. North Central 38, Ithaca 9 |
|
|
Frank's take: In some way, this game sets up like Cortaca this year for me, but with some definite differences in terms of the Ithaca opponent. North Central is much less mistake-prone than the Cortland team Ithaca faced in Week 11, has a larger and faster defensive line, and has more experience in this situation across most positions. Unless NCC makes a few mistakes, they take command early and keep Ithaca distant on the scoreboard. North Central 37, Ithaca 17
|
|
|
Greg's take: In Round 2, North Central gave up a touchdown for the first time in many, many weeks and even trailed for a few minutes. It hasn't seemed so throughout much of this season, but the top-ranked team in Division III are not without some limits. Ithaca has, at times, been style agnostic this season. Winning high scoring games or beating RPI at their own low-scoring game. This experienced team has seen most of what Division III could possibly throw at them and they adapt to anything. I'll be watching to see if AJ Wingfield can find some success offensively in this game. We've seen teams that can slow North Central down -- but nobody has figured out how to score on them and that will be Ithaca's challenge on Saturday. |
|
|
Logan's take: No team has had an easier path to the quarterfinals this season than Ithaca has, and now they're playing the odds-on favorite to win the whole thing. Ithaca's rushing defense is the second worst rush D of the remaining teams (ahead of only Bethel), while North Central has a Gagliardi finalist RB, a backup who would start almost anywhere else in the country, and a QB who will be the fastest player on the field. Oh, and the Cardinals have one of the best DIII defensive lines ever. Good luck. North Central 42, Ithaca 7 |
|
|
Riley's take: NCC has the nation's best rushing attack behind a strong offensive line and All-American candidate Ethan Greenfield, which has had little trouble paving the way to mostly lopsided victories for the nation's No. 1 team this season. But here's where Ithaca should feel good going into this one: the Bomber defense has plenty of recent experience facing high-caliber rushing attacks. In round two, they faced Springfield (No. 2 in the nation in rushing offense) and the opening-round matchup was against Mass-Dartmouth (No. 14 in rushing offense). If Ithaca slows the effectiveness of NCC's rushing game, and forces the Cardinals to go through the air, the Bombers have a chance, allowing only 141.5 pass yards per game. Otherwise, NCC should end up one win away from a return trip to the Stagg Bowl.
North Central 33, Ithaca 17
|
Bethel at Mary Hardin-Baylor
|
|
Keith's take: Bethel might well be one of the best four teams still alive, but it'll be hard to tell against the defending champions. The Royals are rolling, and haven't played a home game or a team with a losing record since October, so a high-pressure trip to Belton shouldn't faze them. QB Jaran Roste, a scholarship-level talent, and an offensive line that was pancaking Linfield defenders last week, give Bethel a chance to put up points. But the concern is how they stop UMHB's offense -- which averaged eight yards per rush in Round 1 against Huntingdon, and threw three TD passes against Trinity's top-10 defense in Round 2 -- with the 99th-ranked defense in the country. Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, Bethel 24 * No. 66 at the 3:08:30 mark for the pancake |
|
|
Pat's take: A classic game. One of the greats. One that will live up to the amazing 2022 season we've had. This one comes down to less than the value of home field advantage and features two of the top quarterbacks in Division III battling each other and two quality defenses. Mary Hardin-Baylor 27, Bethel 26 |
|
|
Ryan's take: I picked Bethel to win this bracket in our Surprises/Disappointments column, and especially against Linfield, the Royals have never looked better: balanced offense, forcing turnovers, pressuring the quarterback, no momentum-shifting penalties. Jaran Roste is certainly one big factor to the team's success, but it's more than that -- everyone on the field is playing peak ball when it matters most. Not trying to take anything away from an amazing UMHB team, but Bethel has an air attack and other tools that I don't think the Cru will adequately have an answer for. Bethel 27, Mary Hardin-Baylor 21 |
|
|
Frank's take: This game really comes down to the following question: can UMHB get to Jaran Roste and make contact with him multiple times, early and often? Answer: Yes. Trinity's offensive line is phenomenal, and you can ask Tucker Horn what he had to endure last week despite that. Bethel is a strong team with a lot of talent, but it won't be enough this week, as the CRU enjoy their last stanza at home this season. Mary Hardin-Baylor 27, Bethel 21
|
|
|
Greg's take: This should be an incredible game between two teams that might be more similar than people would expect. Bethel comes to Belton with Jaran Roste about as healthy as he's been all year -- and the Royals will need all of Roste's skills to play another week. One year ago, UMHB hung on to win a tight game against Trinity, then carved up the next four rounds of the tournament in a way that we don't often see. UMHB has just survived a a tight game against Trinity -- will history (ahem) repeat itself? |
|
|
Logan's take: These are the two least consistent teams left. We know what each team is capable of -- this is the same core group for the Cru who tore through the playoffs a year ago, and Bethel has three wins over Top 15 opponents, but UMHB had a 4 week stretch in the middle of the season from 10/1-10/22 where they performed below a Top 25 level, and Bethel's worst three games came in the last three weeks of the season. UMHB has more weapons outside their stellar QB, so they get my vote. |
|
|
Riley's take: There will be some great quarterback play in this third round, but I'm not sure there will be a better quarterback duel than the one in Belton between UMHB's Kyle King and Bethel's Jaran Roste. Fifth-year seniors who are, amongst many other accolades, semifinalists for the Gagliardi, each has led his respective offense to a number of key victories already in 2022. Both are in the top 20 nationally in passing efficiency, King at No. 8 and Roste at No. 17, and all signs are pointing towards this coming down to which defense finds a way to slow the opposing quarterback and his playmaking receivers. In battles where the offenses headlines the matchup, the defense tends to play that much more important of a role. That's what I see happening here.
Mary Hardin-Baylor 34, Bethel 24
|
Got picks? Put them in the comments!