/notables/2022/11/quick-hits-week11

Quick Hits: Our predictions for Week 11

Jaran Roste, the QB1 for Bethel, is reportedly ready to go for the Royals on Saturday as Bethel travels to St. John's for the MIAC title game.
Photo by Pat Coleman, D3sports.com
 

The 2022 regular season has been a ride unlike anything we've seen -- and there's one more action packed weekend to go. 13 automatic bids are unclaimed -- nine of those bids will be decided in winner-take-all games. At-large teams will not only be watching the D3football.com scoreboard, but hoping to hold serve and keep their candidacy alive. Outside of the playoff picture, the weekend is packed with rivalry games and senior days. Our panel of experts is back again to guide you through all of the action from the Bronx to Southern California in this regular season's finale. 

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: No. 9 Bethel at No. 5 St. John's. Games between top 10 ranked teams have occupied this space so many times this season that it seems appropriate to finish the 2022 regular season with one more. Bethel quarterback Jaran Roste missed the second half of last week's scare against Augsburg, but reports from media in the Twin Cities indicate that the Royals' starting quarterback will be ready to play tomorow. The winner of this game will play next week, the loser has a decent chance in Pool C, but nothing is guaranteed in Pool C and Sunday will be a long day for the MIAC runner up.  
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: The 63rd Cortaca Jug game, between No. 11 Cortland (9-0) and No. 12 Ithaca (9-0). A rivalry so intense you don't even dare have the Jug on the sidelines, at least not when this game is on campus. 46,000 fans could be wrong, but not this time.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: No. 9 Bethel at No. 5 St. John's. Back in Week 4 when these teams first met, there was probably very little expectation that they'd both be Top 10 teams going into the final Saturday of the regular season. Back then, the Royals snapped a long losing streak to the Johnnies in an instant classic, which helps set the stage for this weekend's excitement. Big honorable mention goes to The Cortaca Jug game, which I'm sure others on this panel will mention as GOTW.
Frank's take: UW-Platteville at UW-La Crosse. It’s a game that affects the WIAC, Hardin-Simmons, Bridgewater, Johns Hopkins/Utica, King’s, MWC runners up, OAC runners up, and more. And it’s between two pretty damned good football teams that are equally matched.
Logan's take: Cortaca, Cortaca, Cortaca. We already know these teams are in the playoffs, so in terms of postseason leverage, this isn't huge, but c'mon. These two have been on a collision course all year. Matchup to watch - explosive Cortland passing offense vs. an Ithaca secondary that struggled at times vs. Union.
Riley's take: No. 11 Cortland vs. No. 12 Ithaca. Played at Yankee Stadium, on television, in front of two very passionate fan bases as a major piece to the playoff puzzle? Cortica has it all. This has been a matchup we've been talking about throughout the season, and this is exactly. Both teams have only gotten better as the weeks have progressed, and enter this one undefeated. You won't want to miss this edition of one of D-III football's greatest rivalries.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: No. 20 Albion. The typically explosive Britons have had slow starts to a few games this year, most recently falling behind Olivet 17-0 last week. On the road at undfeated Alma, another slow start could derail the Albion's perfect season- and keep them out of the NCAA tournament. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: No. 24 UW-River Falls. Not sure how much of an upset it would be considering how few votes River Falls is actually getting, but the Borgerding Bowl is ripe for a Stout win.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: No. 16 Wartburg. Opponent Coe is one of those teams I was high on in the preseason, but then kind of lost track of after a couple of losses. But the Kohawks have put together a bit of a sleeper season still being 6-1 in conference play, where a win on Saturday would set up a three-way tie at the top of the ARC. So much is riding on this, and statistically they match up well against the Knights' potent run game.
Frank's take: No. 7 UW-La Crosse (vs. UW-Platteville). Why should the WIAC-kiness stop now? UWL is letting teams stick around for too long, and a team like UWP will be able to capitalize in a close game.
Logan's take: I'm going to go out on a limb and actually name two teams playing on the road this week - No. 19 Carnegie Melon at CWRU and No. 20 Albion at Alma. My model sees both of these games as tossups. CMU & Albion both have a handful of single-digit wins and have had to rely on turnovers & comeback to secure wins.
Riley's take: No. 23 UW-River Falls. You never know what will happen in the WIAC, and while I think UWRF playing on its home turf in the regular season finale might give the Falcons an advantage, I've liked what UW-Stout has done over the last few weeks. If the Stout defense manages to put up one final above-average effort this season, the Blue Devils just might be on their way to victory.

Who will be the highest ranked team to miss the tournament?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: No. 22 John Carroll.The five potential Pool C teams currently ranked ahead of John Carroll are: UW-La Crosse, the MIAC runner up, Hardin-Simmons, Wheaton, and Johns Hopkins. It would be hard to find fault with those selections, leaving the Blue Streaks as the highest ranked team remaining. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: No. 22 John Carroll. There just isn't a real path for the Blue Streaks to get into the field. Imagine if JCU had beaten Washington & Jefferson!
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: No. 23 UW-River Falls seems to be the most likely candidate, as the next best possibility, UW-Whitewater, has two losses but still shows up strong in the regional rankings and should make it as a Pool A.
Frank's take: If UWL wins, it will again be Hardin-Simmons. If UWP wins, it will be UW-La Crosse.
Logan's take: Going by where they're ranked now, I think it will be Bethel. I think they'll struggle to beat SJU twice, but if they drop a few slots in the rankings after Saturday, it could also be Wheaton.
Riley's take: I went back and forth on this one for a while. But because I think both No. 8 Hardin-Simmons, No. 9 Bethel, and No. 15 Wheaton will all get in, I'm going to say No. 22 John Carroll. Honestly this is a toss-up, considering that the committee has not selected teams in the past that appeared to be very likely playoff contenders. JCU has two losses, and is ranked No. 6 in Region 4, so that puts the Blue Streaks out of contention. Whether someone ranked higher will join them is a question that will have to wait for Sunday.

 

Which game without playoff implications are you most interested in?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: Maryville (Tenn.) at Belhaven. The USA South has been settled, but Belahven enters the season's final weekend with an 8-1 record and ranked in Region 3. The Blazers don't appear to be a factor in this season's playoff, but winning 9 games in their first season outside of the ASC positions the Blazers as a team that we'll likely see in a postseason soon. The visiting Scots won't make getting that ninth win easy, though. This should be a fun game in Jackson. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: The Secretaries' Cup rivalry between U.S. Merchant Marine Academy and the U.S. Coast Guard Academy. I've seen both teams and been to both stadiums but have not seen this game, and someday I hope to get back east for it.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: No. 18 Randolph-Macon at Hampden-Sydney in The Game. With Macon already earning the ODAC's automatic bid, it may be easy for them to be looking ahead to Round 1. But I highly doubt that would actually happen. The Game is one of college football's best rivalries and is the perfect capper to the regular season in Virginia.
Frank's take: USCGA at USMMA. C’mon, it’s Veterans’ Day. This should be a unanimous selection! And THANK YOU for your service to our Veterans!
Logan's take: UW-Stout at No. 24 UW-River Falls. Assuming UW-La Crosse wins and gets in through Pool C, there could be a 4-way tie for the WIAC's bid to the Culver's Isthmus Bowl if UW-Stout wins this game. I think UWO would get the bid, but this game also plays into my preseason bold prediction that a team who finished 2021 0.500 or lower would end up ranked.
Riley's take: Coast Guard at Merchant Marine. This won't determine anything in regards to the postseason, but in terms of rivalries, it is right up there with the best in D-III. Neither has had a stellar season, but nonetheless, there is still a whole lot of pride on the line in this one between two U.S. service academies, and on top of that, Merchant Marine is looking to finish above .500 in conference play for the sixth straight season. The Mariners enter with a 3-2 record in NEWMAC play.

 

How many regions will be represented in Pool C?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: I'll go with four- Region 2, Region 3 Region 5, and a pair from Region 6 seems the most likely distribution this season. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Four. The 2, the 3, the 5, the 6.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Four. I'm envisioning teams from Regions 2, 3, 5 and 6 to be selected for Pool C.
Frank's take: Four or Five. Region 6 is automatic. Wheaton is a sure pick in Region 5. Depending on the UWP/UWL result, I could see permutations of 1/2/3, 2/3/4, or 1/2/4 if UWL loses. If UWL wins, they’ll be picked, making it two Region 6 bids.
Logan's take: Four, and here's how I see it shaking out:
Region 2 (1 or 2 teams)
Region 3 (1 team)
Region 4 (1 team)
Region 6 (1 or 2 teams)
Riley's take: Four. Regions 2, 3, 5 and 6 should all be represented in the Pool C selections.

 

Pick a winner in a game between two teams that are playing for an automatic bid.

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: From 0-3 to conference champions, I'll take Rose-Hulman to win a high scoring affair on the road at Mount St. Joseph and clinch a second consecutive trip to the postseason for the Fightin' Engineers. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: No. 15 Wartburg against Coe, and it isn't going to be super close. No tiebreaker needed in the ARC.
 
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Salisbury, vs. Christopher Newport. Under a new coach for 2022, the Captains have had a breakout year, putting some recent dismal seasons behind them to now have the NJAC title on the line. However, they haven't been as dominant week to week as Salisbury has been, so the Gulls seem likely to come away with the playoff bid. But kudos to CNU for the big buildup this year and laying a foundation for seasons to come.
Frank's take: No. 20 Albion (at Alma). They’re calling it perhaps the “MIAA Game of the Century.” However, Albion has been here before, has strength across the board, and will win this game handily in my view.
Logan's take: There are nine winner-take all games this weekend, so why pick just one! Ordered most-to-least likely:
Aurora > Concordia-Wis
Salisbury > Christopher Newport
Mass-Dartmouth > Plymouth State
Saint John's > Bethel
C-M-S > Pomona-Pitzer
Springfield > Catholic
Rose-Hulman > Mount St. Joseph
Wabash > Depauw
Albion > Alma
 
Riley's take: I'll take No. 20 Albion to defeat Alma for the MIAA title. Both are 9-0, and this might be one of the better games of the week. The way things are looking, it is hard to see the loser of this game picking up a Pool C bid if Region 6 takes two Pool C bids. So playoff hopes are on the line in this one, and I'll go with Albion winning by a touchdown.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!

 

 

Dec. 15: All times Eastern
Final
Cortland 38, at North Central (Ill.) 37
@ Salem, Virginia
Video Box Score Recap Photos
Dec. 9: All times Eastern
Final
North Central (Ill.) 34, at Wartburg 27
Box Score Recap
Final
Cortland 49, at Randolph-Macon 14
Box Score Recap Recap Recap Photos
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