Mount Union finally faces a ranked team this week for the first time this season. Photo by Tom Nettleton, d3photography.com

We've reached the penultimate week of the regular season, which means its time to check in on Mount Union. Our panel of experts will be watching the Purple Raiders, a Pool C eliminator in St. Louis, and (of course) the weekly Top 25 WIAC matchup. We're also tracking teams clinching bids and which teams might have to wait another week, as well as teams that might get caught looking ahead to Week 11 rivalries.  

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: No. 22 John Carroll at No. 2 Mount Union. The Purple Raiders are the only top tier team to have not measured themselves against top 25 (or better) competition. This game should give us the first real glimpse of what we can expect from Mount Union in the postseason.
	Pat's take: No. 15 Wheaton at No. 25 Washington U. This seems to be a piece of the puzzle that a lot of other things are waiting on -- the Pool C/at-large playoff picture, Wartburg being a little underrated, Trinity's chances of a No. 1 seed, etc.
	Ryan's take: No. 13 Susquehanna at Muhlenberg. The last big test for the River Hawks and, with an undefeated season so close at hand, the potential for a really nice seeding come playoff time. On the flip side, Muhlenberg can play a major spoiler here with a win, perhaps sending a 9-1 Susquehanna on the road in the playoffs and impacting the conference's likelihood of a Pool C bid for JHU.
	Frank's take: No. 23 UW-River Falls at No. 7 UW-La Crosse. UW-La Crosse seems to be the only WIAC team that will be potentially picked in Pool C, as no 3-loss team has ever been selected in Pool C in the 23 years of the current Pool C generation, even with more picks years ago. Yet, La Crosse has a bigger problem: just 8 games against D3 opponents. Would 6-2 be enough to get in Pool C? Maybe not, and River Falls has the ability to make the committee face that decision.
	Logan's take: No. 15 Wheaton at No. 25 WashU. The winner of this game will firmly be in the Pool C conversation, and will pick up a win vs. a Regionally Ranked Opponent. I have Wheaton favored by about a TD on the road. Both offenses are putting up video game numbers when they aren't playing a Top 10 opponent, and their passing & rushing efficiencies on O & D are remarkably similar. I think Wheaton's experience in big games pays dividends.
	Riley's take: There's another Top 25 matchup in Wisconsin this weekend, but when is there not? I'll instead select No. 22 John Carroll at No. 2 Mount Union as my GOTW. For all the discussion on MU's Top 25 ranking and weak SOS, this will be a true test to see if those arguments are valid or not. We haven't seen the Purple Raiders battle a fellow Top 25 program, or frankly, challenged at all past halftime, this season. JCU will be on the road, but will undoubtedly bring its best to Alliance. The question will be how the JCU defense stacks up against Braxton Plunk and the high-scoring offense of MU.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 13 Susquehanna. Massive challenge for Susquehanna this weekend. The River Hawks will need to bounce back from last week's emotional win against Johns Hopkins with a big test at Muhlenberg. Whereas Susquehanna has had recent success against the Blue Jays (winning three of the last four meetings), Muhlenberg has proven a tougher matchup for the River Hawks.  Susquehanna has won just one game in the last eight meetings with the Mules. They'll have to reverse that trend to lock up the Centennial Conference this weekend.
	Pat's take: No. 10 UW-Whitewater, if forced to pick. There's a chance Stout could pull off another crazy game at home.
	Ryan's take: None. I haven't played the "none" card all season in Quick Hits. Muhlenberg and Union will give tough games, but I don't think any unranked teams are going to take down a Top 25er this weekend.
	Frank's take: No. 12 Ithaca (at Union). Ithaca is coming off a close win with a major event in Week 11 coming up. Union is fighting for their life. It will be an emotional day at Frank Bailey Field, celebrating former Head Coach John Audino and his family — an event that will be bringing many alumni back to Frank Bailey Field. Focus, emotions, and more could lead to a hiccup by Ithaca before Cortaca, which has happened before.
	Logan's take: A week after their biggest win as members of the Centennial Conference, No. 13 Susquehanna has another hurdle to get over when they travel to Muhlenberg. This is the 5th consecutive season the River Hawks have had to play JHU & Muhlenberg back-to-back weeks, and they've never beaten both teams in the same season. They're favored by less than a TD, and another blocked PAT would go a long way.
	Riley's take: No. 15 Wheaton. This will be an offense-dominated game in St. Louis, with Wheaton visiting WashU. WashU certainly underperformed in its last "big game" against North Central, but I do not see the Bears missing out on a Top 25 win again. After being shut out by NCC, the Bears responded with a 49-6 win over Elmhurst. With the top passing attack in the CCIW, WashU will need to be explosive through the air to pull off this upset. Wheaton's defense has been impressive for most of the season, but I'm going to take the Bears' offense doing just enough for a victory by a small margin.

What team will only be making a cameo this week in the regional rankings?

	Greg's take: Belhaven, but not for anyting Belhaven will do on Saturday. I mentioned this in this week's Around The Nation column, but when results against ranked opponents become part of the calculus in the next set of rankings, I believe Birmingham-Southern will enter the Region 3 rankings, and Belhaven will be just outside.
	Pat's take: UW-Platteville. Somewhat surprised to see them in the alpha list, expect them to stay in following their home game against Eau Claire, then fall out after traveling to La Crosse.
	Ryan's take: Washington U. Conceivably, the Bears could linger on the regional-rankings bubble even with a loss this week to Wheaton, but it'll be tough for them, and they would very likely be out of the legitimate playoff discussion.
	Frank's take: Bridgewater (vs. Washington & Lee). The Generals played Hampden-Sydney and Randolph-Macon well the last two weeks, despite two losses. I think they’ve learned well from this experience, enough to challenge Bridgewater in a close game that the Generals can win. I’ll take the flyer here and say the technical upset occurs.
	Logan's take: This feels extremely unlikely, but I feel like none of these teams are especially likely to fall out of the rankings this week. JCU is the only team on the edge of the rankings more likely than not to lose, and they probably have a loss to give with their H2H win over Heidelberg. Trine has a tossup game, too, and if they lose that, they'll be gone.
	Riley's take: Claremont-Mudd-Scripps. Without an especially strong performance against Redlands (see question 4 below) this Saturday, I don't see CMS in next week's rankings. Region 6 is undoubtedly one of the most stacked regions, and while a 4-0 conference record is notable, the SCIAC has been weaker than I anticipated it being.

Which game are you following that no one else on the panel is following?

	Greg's take: Kenyon at Wabash. Ah, the old alma mater play.  This game features two offensive players that have been posting video game stat lines in recent weeks.  Wabash quarterback Liam Thompson leads the division is passing yards and total offense per game and broke a Wabash single game record for touchdown passes (7) last week. Kenyon wide receiver Zachary Kim's October featured a game where he caught 17 passes and a game where he posted 280 receiving yards- and these were different games. Looking forward to this offensive showcase in Crawfordsville.
	Pat's take: Fairly certain nobody else on the panel will be at this week's SUNY-Maritime at Keystone game, but that's where I'll be. fortunate enough to be able to come to the east coast to get a walk-through of Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, site of this year's Stagg Bowl, and taking the opportunity to see two teams I've never seen before and get back to making progress toward seeing all Division III football programs at least once in person. I've seen 174 programs in person, although 13 of them are no longer open or at least no longer in Division III.
	Ryan's take: Denison at Wooster. Getting rivalry vibes a week early with the Old Red Lantern game. And Wooster especially should be riding high after an unthinkable rally last week to beat Wittenberg. In fact, because Denison was on a bye last week, both teams are entering the rivalry coming off of wins against Witt.
	Frank's take: Salve Regina at No. 24 Endicott. It’s a rare occasion for a CCC team to be ranked, but it finally happened for Endicott. While Salve’s record seems somewhat tarnished after a bad loss at UNE last week, this might be the best remaining test for Endicott before the Playoffs. A close game might provide a learning opportunity, but this one has been circled since last year’s game decided by a late TD & INT for Salve.
	Logan's take: Anna Maria at Dean. In our preseason predictions, I picked Anna Maria to have the worst falloff among 2021 playoff teams. They have a tossup game this week against Dean before playing Castelton (4-1 in the ECFC) in Week 11. If they don't win this week, they're at risk of going 1-5 in conference just a year removed from a playoff trip.
	Riley's take: Redlands at Claremont-Mudd-Scripps. This will be an intriguing west coast battle, for a couple of reasons. Sure, CMS' spot in the regional rankings likely depends on this game, but more than that, these are the top two teams in the SCIAC right now. Pomona-Pitzer is tied with Redlands at 3-1 in conference play, but Redlands beat Pomona-Pitzer a week ago, in what I'd classify as a minor upset. Redlands is just 3-5 overall, but a win over CMS would give Redlands a clear path to the playoffs. Of course, there's still Week 11, but for all intents and purposes, Redlands will be playing for its season on Saturday afternoon.

Ithaca, Ripon, and Susquehanna - who clinches a playoff bid on Saturday?

	Greg's take: If you're not believing in what is going on at Ripon this season, you just can't be convinced. I like the Hawks - Red and River- to clinch bids on Saturday. Ithaca is going on the road and we haven't seen anything really weird happen in the Liberty League yet. Ithaca is also 9-1 against Union in the last 10 meetings in the series.  I'll also take the Bombers to win and secure the Liberty League title, but with lower confidence.
	Pat's take: Strong on Ithaca and Susquehanna and less so on Ripon.
	Ryan's take: These are all squaring up to be pretty interesting matchups this weekend, with potential for close ones, but I think all three of these teams win and get to play at least one extra week of football.
	Frank's take: Susquehanna. I have Monmouth beating Ripon at home, and I have Union beating Ithaca at home. Susquehanna knows Muhlenberg is the last real challenge before their likely Playoffs run — and they know 10-0 is needed to assure home games.
	Logan's take: Susquehanna and Ithaca should both clinch with wins, but I think Ripon will struggle against Monmouth, and throw the MWC into a 3-way tie at the top.
	Riley's take: All three. Ithaca won't have an easy matchup against Union on the road, but the Bombers have met every challenge they've faced so far. Susquehanna will also be on the road at Muhlenberg, but based on what I saw against JHU, the River Hawks are more than a legitimate playoff contender this season. Ripon should find a way to beat Monmouth (also on the road). Don't expect any one of those three wins to come easily, though. All three of these matchups will be games you'll want to have on your watch list.

Who goes into their Week 11 rivalry game on a down note?

	Greg's take: I'm going to give you a bonus pick here.  The HCAC's top four has seemingly subdivided into a top two. I think Rose-Hulman and Mount St. Josseph will both get road wins an set up their Week 11 showdown for the HCAC title while sending Franklin and Hanover into next week's Victory Bell game coming off of a loss.
	Pat's take: Wilkes. I would still expect a good contest in the Colonels' Mayor's Cup game against King's, but this week's game at Stevenson may not be their most favorite leadin to that rivalry contest.
	Ryan's take: Union. The Dutchman's Shoes rivalry with RPI is one of the division's best, but coming off of playing a highly ranked Ithaca team that has walloped almost every opponent they've faced, Union will likely be stepping into Week 11 on a two-game skid.
	Frank's take: If my Ithaca projection is correct, that’s the easiest answer. However, Williams has had a really disappointing season heading into “The Biggest Little Game in America” vs. Amherst — and Wesleyan at 5-2 at home will probably make the misery continue for the Ephs.
	Logan's take: Hampden-Sydney has The Game against the undefeated Randolph-Macon Yellow Jackets in Week 11, but they will probably get stung by a different insect against the Shenandoah Hornets this week. My predictive model thinks Shenandoah is the second-best team in the ODAC, despite their 3-2 conference record.
	Riley's take: Hampden-Sydney. Hosting rival No. 18 Randolph-Macon next week, Hampden-Sydney is still in the running for the ODAC title (though the Tigers would need Bridgewater to lose as well), at 4-1 in conference play. They've won four straight entering this week, but playing at Shenandoah could bring an end to that streak. Shenandoah seems to be improving every week, and has enough firepower to hand Hampden-Sydney its first loss since Oct. 1 heading into that big-time showdown with an undefeated R-M-C squad.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!