Delaware Valley was first alphabetically in the NCAA's regional rankings, but it turns out, almost certainly would be No. 1 in any actual ranking.  Delaware Valley athletics photo

By Greg Thomas
D3sports.com

On Wednesday afternoon, the first set of 2022 Division III football regional rankings were released by the NCAA. As they did last year, the first set of rankings were, well, not ranked. Without getting too deep in the weeds, starting in 2021-22, Division III sports committees decided to not officially rank the teams in the first regional rankings because those rankings aren’t including results versus regionally ranked opponents, which is an important piece of primary criteria. Pat Colemand and Dave McHugh went way, way deeper on this and other NCAA legislative topics in an enlightening Around the Nation podcast at about this time last year if you want to learn more about why the rankings are released in an alphabetical sort. 

One change for 2022 — each region’s rankings are capped at seven teams. In 2021, some regions had eight ranked teams and others just seven. The seven-team limit means that the number of ranked teams that we will have (42) are four fewer than we had in 2021 (46), but still two more than we had in the four-region, ten ranked teams days of yore. 

Here at Around the Nation, we understand why the NCAA chooses to not rank these teams this week numerically, but the order is significant. Historically, a team’s close win against a team ranked seventh in one region and another team’s similarly close win against a team ranked third in another region would not be identical results- indeed, that win against the higher ranked team has had more clout with selection committees in the past. So while Wednesday’s alphabetic rankings are a good starting point, Around the Nation is going rank the regionally ranked teams (using the NCAA’s criteria!) and provide a little analysis on what fans might expect to see in these rankings over the season’s last two Saturdays. 

Before we dive into the rankings, a quick aside on Pool C candidates. There are just five Pool C bids (the true at-large bids to the tournament). If you’re a fan of a team clinging to postseason hopes through an at-large invitation and your team isn’t listed this week, the postseason is probably going to have to wait until next year. This is the list of ranked teams this week that could wind up in Pool C as one-loss teams:

King’s

Johns Hopkins

Utica

Belhaven

Bridgewater

Hardin-Simmons

MIAA runner up

Lake Forest

Washington U.

UW-La Crosse

That’s ten teams for five bids. There could be more teams joining this list (Ithaca, Ripon, Mount St. Joseph all have a little meat left on the bone in their conferences) and we’ve not touched on two-loss teams that have powerful marks in primary criteria like Strength of Schedule (SOS) and results versus ranked opponents (RRO). The loser of the presumptive MIAC title game between Bethel and St. John’s would fit this description, as would Wheaton, should the Thunder win at Washington U. this weekend. 

On to the rankings! 

Region 1

Delaware Valley is the clear frontrunner in Region 1 with the best SOS of this group as well as two wins against ranked teams. If King’s can get through the end of the season with a 9-1 record, the Monarchs should make other Pool C teams nervous. Stevenson, barring a loss to Wilkes in their season finale this Saturday, isn’t going anywhere and will register as a ranked win for the Monarchs. Coupled with a high win percentage and a respectable SOS, the Monarchs are going to have a more than decent at-large profile.  

Team(s) that ATN might have listed differently: Hat tip to the Region 1 advisory committee- ATN wouldn’t have selected any other teams here. Nobody outside of these seven have wins against other ranked teams or a combination of win percentage and SOS that challenge the seven teams ranked this week. Wilkes is the only team on the fringe with a decent result versus a ranked opponent (a 27-14 loss to Delaware Valley), but Wilkes has a SOS over 100 points lower than Springfield’s. 

Region 2

We’re giving the nod to the Red Dragons for the top spot in a very crowded field in Region 2. Cortland and Susquehanna stand out with their wins vRRO when compared to the other two undefeated teams in the region. Comparing those wins against ranked opponents, Cortland’s wipeout of Utica stands out when compared to Susquehanna’s two point win over similarly-ranked Johns Hopkins. The same logic works in reverse for why I’ve ranked Hopkins over Utica- the Blue Jays were more competitive against a team that I consider very close in ranking to Cortland. Ithaca had a chance to distinguish itself from Carnegie Mellon last weekend, but the Bombers ended up with a similar result against the common opponent, RPI. 

It is interesting to note that the highest SOS in this group comes from Carnegie Mellon, who have no results against other ranked teams. We know Carnegie Mellon has played good teams this season in and out of the PAC. CMU’s SOS in the absence of ranked opponents on their schedule  speaks to 1) the depth of Region 2 and 2) one of the shortcomings of the NCAA’s SOS metric. Sometimes, it just doesn’t tell the whole story. 

Team(s) that ATN might have listed differently: There are plenty of good teams in Region 2, but there is no room at the inn for any of them. Washington and Jefferson (6-2, 0.547 SOS) has a good two-loss profile that includes a win over ranked John Carroll. Case Western Reserve could play their way in to thee rankings with two more wins- something that would not only get Case Western Reserve into the postseason as the PAC champion, but would immensely help Johns Hopkins in their chase for a Pool C bid for the second year in a row. Union also has a ranked win over Springfield, but the Dutchmen’s 0.472 SOS just isn’t high enough to crack this select group. 

Region 3

Trinity has the highest SOS in this group and outpaces Randolph-Macon by enough that we don’t need to parse results against Wheaton and Bridgewater too much. Ordering the one-loss conference leaders UMHB and Huntingdon wasn’t as simple as readers might assume- Huntingdon has an SOS advantage over the defending champions and their one-score loss to Linfield is, at least according to our regional rankings, is a result as good or better than UMHB’s loss to UW-Whitewater as Linfield is going to be ranked higher than Whitewater. I’ve given the Crusaders an edge here based on their 30-point win at Hardin-Simmons being more impressive than Huntingdon’s win over Belhaven. 

Important note for Hardin-Simmons fans- it looks like the Cowboys are going to be the top ranked at-large team in the region. This will be different than 2021, when the Cowboys were the fifth ranked team in the region and third at-large team. UW-Platteville being ranked this week, and playing UW-Eau Claire in Week 10, makes it likely that Platteville will survive in the regional rankings one more week. If the Pioneers are ranked in next Wednesday’s rankings ahead of Week 11, Hardin-Simmons’ win against Platteville will indeed count as a regionally ranked win- absolutely invaluable at selection time. Barring an unexpected result in the ODAC in Weeks 10 or 11, Hardin-Simmons is well positioned for a return to the postseason. 

Team(s) that ATN might have listed differently: While Around the Nation applauds the breakthrough season that Belhaven is having, a 0.404 SOS in the absence of an RRO win made it a surprise to see the Blazers on the list today. There are not teams on the fringe of the Region 3 rankings that have a regionally ranked win, but Birmingham-Southern has a pair of three point losses to ranked teams (Trinity and Huntingdon) in games that they led with 70 seconds or less left. It’s possible that next week’s official rankings that do take results against ranked opponents into account will propel the Panthers into the rankings, displacing Belhaven. 

Region 4

2022 is another pretty lean year in Region 4. The OAC dominated these rankings last year in the same way that MIAA is doing this year. Ranked teams in Region 4 have just two wins against any other ranked opponents and both of those wins were against Trine. 

Despite Mount Union’s abysmal SOS and lack of any results against ranked opponents, it isn’t feasible to believe that the Region 4 committee will supplant Mount Union with anybody else at the top of these rankings. Yes, Albion’s primary criteria are better across the board, but Albion has also been demonstrably less dominant than the Purple Raiders. 

We’ve ranked John Carroll ahead of Mount St. Joseph. Despite the Lions’ undefeated record, John Carroll’s 100-point advantage in SOS and a better result against common opponent Baldwin Wallace informs that ordering. 

Team(s) that ATN might have listed differently: There’s not much to quibble with here in Region 4. Heidelberg has a far superior SOS (0.555) to DePauw (0.481) so a case can be made that Heidlberg could be ranked instead of DePauw. 

Region 5

While Ripon has a slight SOS advantage over Wartburg and currently has a win against a ranked team that Wartburg does not, this should be a situation where a committee overrides data that is misleading. Wartburg has outscored opponents 355-38 against a schedule that the NCAA measures as comparable to Ripon’s, whom the Red Hawks have outscored 264-101. Wartburg’s schedule also includes a shutout win over UW-Stout, who isn’t ranked but is a stronger opponent than anybody Ripon has faced. We’ll also get some common opponent data this weekend when Ripon plays Monmouth, who Wartburg defeated 34-7 in Week 1. 

I’ve ranked Wheaton ahead of Washington based on a the large SOS difference and a stronger result against North Central. Wheaton’s other loss is also a one point overtime loss to Region 3’s top ranked team, Trinity. Wheaton and Washington will play what is essentially a Pool C elimination game this weekend. 

Team(s) that ATN might have listed differently: ATN would have selected the same seven teams. Concordia (Wis.) is the only other one-loss team in the region, but Concordia lacks any RRO results and has a disqualifying SOS of 0.415. Monmouth would be the next best two loss team, but the Scots’ profile isn’t so good that they should replace Aurora. Keep an eye on next week’s rankings to see if the loser of Week 10’s Wheaton at Washington game remains in the rankings- doing so will be critical to the Pool C chances of the winner. 

Region 6

Region 6 typically houses the highest SOS numbers among its ranked teams when compared to other regions and this year is not different. As the only undefeated team in the region, Linfield is a clear choice at the top of the table. The Wildcats have earned it with a 0.620 SOS. 

Earlier in the season, we talked circles around the loop involving St. John’s, Bethel, UW-Platteville, and UW-Whitewater (and UMHB and Hardin-Simmons), and that loop is still as unresolvable today as it was then. I was a bit surprise to see UW-Platteville ranked with a 4-3 record against Division III opponents. A win percentage of 0.571 falls well below what is a typical threshold for inclusion in these rankings. While Platteville has two wins against ranked teams, they’ve also lost, badly, to two teams not ranked. For these reasons, it seems appropriate to put Platteville at the bottom of the MIAC/WIAC group. From there, the teams can be readily sorted according to their head to head results: Bethel defeated St. John’s who defeated UW-Whitewater, who defeated UW-La Crosse. 

Claremont-Mudd-Scripps is enjoying a nice season, but the Stags’ 0.414 SOS really stands out in this group, and not in a good way. Their 212th ranked SOS won’t be high enough to rank the Stags ahead of even 4-3 Platteville. 

Team(s) that ATN might have listed differently: ATN graded several teams higher than C-M-S: UW-River Falls, UW-Oshkosh, UW-Stout, Gustavus Adolphus all would have been reasonable substitutes for C-M-S. Once you’ve broken the three-loss barrier, there’s little reason to not consider a fourth WIAC team when the rest of the rest of the criteria are in line with other teams ranked in the region. 

On tap 

It’s Week 10 and the regular season is barrelling toward its exciting conclusion. D3football.com is here to get you ready for the playoffs with our weeklong coverage of all of the happenings around the division. Here’s what you can watch for every week at D3football.com:

Tomorrow: Quick Hits featuring our panel’s predictions and insights into this weekend’s games

Saturday: Game day. Head over to our scoreboard for links to video and stats for all of the games!. 

Sunday: New Top 25 poll 

Monday: Around the Nation podcast. Pat Coleman and Greg Thomas recap the weekend that was and preview the weekend to come in Division III football.

Tuesday/Wednesday: Team of the Week honors, features columns

Thursday: Around the Nation column

Read options?

Small college football is actually pretty massive. Division III is home to 240 teams, many thousands of student-athletes and coaches. There are so many more stories out there than I can find on my own. Please share your stories that make Division III football so special for all of us! Reach out to me at greg.thomas@d3sports.com or on Twitter @wallywabash to share your stories.