Hanover, Middlebury, and Greenville are among the black cats taking the field this Halloween weekend. Hanover athletics photo, Middlebury athletics photo by Will Costello, Greenville athletics photo

It's Week 9 of the Division III football season which is the week where we typically see our first automatic qualifier or two and a whole lot more teams have their postseason bubbles burst. We're likely to see both this weekend, highlighted by some elimination games in the WIAC. We'll also have a lot of eyes on a battle for Centennial Conference supremacy, and whether or not Ithaca can finally clear the RPI hurdle. That much and more as our panel of experts gets you prepared for Halloween weekend in Division III!

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: I talked a bit about the Centennial Conference showdown on the podcast this week.  In this space I'm going to highlight a pair of playoff eliminators- No. 22 UW-River Falls at No. 10 UW-Whitewater and Howard Payne at No. 9 Hardin-Simmons. In both cases, the loser of these games will pick up a loss that will knock them out of any realistic chance to play in the NCAA tournament.
	Pat's take: No. 7 Johns Hopkins at No. 19 Susquehanna. This is the River Hawks' shot, and it's their last season in the Centennial to boot.
	Ryan's take: No. 7 Johns Hopkins at No. 19 Susquehanna. Columnist Joe Sager had a nice piece recently that explores why this is such a crucial game and why the River Hawks are eager to avoid the same mistakes as last year. And these teams are the Cenntennial's only hope of landing two in the playoffs, but nothing would be guaranteed for anyone falling into Pool C potential.
	Frank's take: No. 7 Johns Hopkins at No. 19 Susquehanna. This game proves huge in starting the Susquehanna "gauntlet" round of JHU and Muhlenberg in the next two weeks. This is important because the loser of this game could easily finish 9-1, although the River Hawks have the tougher road with Muhlenberg still to play. As such, the Centennial Conference could again be home to a Pool C bid... IF the loser of this game can win out. This game determines who bubble teams need to watch in Weeks 10 and 11.
	Logan's take: Pick any of three WIAC games if you wish, but I'm going to go East to Pennsylvania for the No. 19 Susquehanna River Hawks hosting No. 7 Johns Hopkins. Both teams are undefeated, and although Susquehanna has yet to play Muhlenberg, the Mules two conference losses means this is a de facto Centennial Conference title game. Susquehanna's OL is tied for the national lead in fewest sacks allowed (with W&L), and JHU has one of the best defensive lineman in the country, Luke Schuermann. That matchup could decide the game.
	Riley's take: No. 21 UW-River Falls at No. 10 UW-Whitewater. There is a four-way tie atop the WIAC standings, and while it seems to be a given that two WIAC teams will reach the postseason, both Whitewater and River Falls each enter this matchup with two losses apiece. A third loss would be catastrophic to either team’s playoff chances, especially with just two weeks remaining after this week’s games, but one of these two will leave Whitewater on Saturday with three losses intact. River Falls leads the WIAC in both rushing offense and defense, as well as passing offense, but will be on the road against a Whitewater team looking to rebound from the disappointing loss at UW-Platteville. You never know what you’re going to get in the WIAC.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 22 UW-Platteville. Will the stingy Pioneer defense that has held Bethel, River Falls, and Whitewater to under 13 points per game travel to Stout? Anything less, and the Blue Devils have what it takes to make Platteville's stay in the Top 25 a short one.
	Pat's take: No. 12 Ithaca. I don't think RPI will actually upset Ithaca but I figure I have to pick RPI until Ithaca actually beats them.
	Ryan's take: No. 17 Randolph-Macon. I was tempted to put "none" here, but the question is "most likely," and the Yellow Jackets are entering a matchup with more parity than any other game between ranked and unranked teams.
	Frank's take: No. 22 UW-Platteville (at UW-Stout). Platteville is due for a letdown game, and Stout is playing well enough to perhaps be the team that knocks back the Pioneers. It would be yet another stanza of WIAC-kiness that we're growing to accept as the normal week after week this season.
	Logan's take: A week after notching their third Top 25 win of the season, and jumping back into the Top 25, No. 22 UW-Platteville is at risk of falling off the board again against UW-Stout this week. My model calls this game a pure 50-50 tossup, with UW-Stout having home-field advantage. In those three big wins, UWP has scoring drives of 5 yards, 7 yards, 16 yards, and an INT return TD. Each win was by a single score. If UW-Stout protects the football, and the Pioneer's defense can't setup a gimme scoring drive for the offense, the Blue Devils will likely prevail.
	Riley's take: No. 12 Ithaca. Don't get me wrong. I've liked what I've seen from the Bombers all year, but if pressed to pick a potential upset, this might be the one. RPI's defense has been one of the most consistent this season, ranking No. 2 in the nation in scoring defense. I mean, both of their losses have come by a margin of just three points. If the defense is up to par, the key for RPI in this one will be in the passing game, considering Ithaca allows 124.6 pass yards per game, the ninth most in D-III. RPI is also coming off a bye week, which means the Engineers will be both rested and well-prepared to spring an upset on the road.

Which team boosts its profile ahead of next week's first Regional Rankings?

	Greg's take: No. 12 Ithaca.The Bombers won't clinch a spot in the tournament like their Cortaca Jug rivals will this weekend, but breaking through the RPI ceiling for the first time as a member of the Liberty League will have Ithaca staying in the pack of Region 2 teams- along with Cortalnd, Carnegie Mellon, and the Centennial leader- vying for the top ranking.
	Pat's take: Linfield. Beating George Fox would give the Wildcats a nice boost in strength of schedule and help Linfield's case for a No. 1 ranking in Region 6.
	Ryan's take: Hardin-Simmons. Perhaps this is me doing my due diligence since I jumped the gun last week talking about this game, but the perpetual-playoff-bubble team should benefit greatly from a win over a 6-1 Howard Payne.
	Frank's take: Utica (at Morrisville St.). The loss to Cortland hurt, but the Pioneers need to bounce back against an upstart Morrisville St. squad Saturday to provide a reason for the Committee to name Utica to one of just two slots in the Region 2 rankings that will go to potential conference runners-up. Morrisville St. should somewhat help Utica's strength of schedule numbers, and a win should make Utica a part of the early party.
	Logan's take: I'm going to cheat and point out a few games between teams on the fringe of that 7-team cutoff that should be close this weekend. Keep an eye on Springfield-USMMA in Region 1, Morrisville-Utica in Region 2, Monmouth-Lake Forest in Region 5, and all but the UWSP-UWEC game in the WIAC in Region 6. Of those 6 games, Springfield is probably the safest bet of the bunch. The winner of each of those matchups should find themselves in the rankings next week, while the losing teams will probably miss the cut.
	Riley's take: No. 7 Johns Hopkins. JHU will be on the road against No. 19 Susquehanna in a very competitive matchup, and a win here for the Blue Jays would dramatically improve their resume, considering they have not played a relatively strong schedule. Susquehanna will be the toughest opponent JHU faces in the regular season, and with a victory, the Blue Jays could jump as high as No. 1 in Region 2, depending on the Ithaca-RPI game mentioned above.

Which game are you following that no one else on the panel is following?

	Greg's take: Pomona-Pitzer at Redlands. You don't even have to stay up late for this one! The Sagehens scored on the final play of the game and kicked an extra point with no time on the clock earlier this season to beat Redlands 21-20- the Sagehens' first win over Redlands since 2004. That wasn't a conference game, however, and the 6-1 Sagehens face Redlands having not beaten the Bulldogs in SCIAC play since, well, 2004.  If Pomona-Pitzer can sweep the season series, they'll be on track to set up a winner take all game in Week 11 in the Sixth Street Rivalry.
	Pat's take: Aurora at Benedictine. Looking forward to seeing how this one turns out with two prolific offenses in a rivalry game.
	Ryan's take: Westminster (Mo.) at Finlandia. Both teams are 0-7 this year, and both have suffered stinging blowout after blowout. One of them has to send their seniors into November with something to be happy about.
	Frank's take: Bridgewater State at Mass-Dartmouth. The MASCAC is still not decided despite the UMD win vs. Framingham St. on 9/17. Bridgewater St. is riding a 4-game winning streak before facing the team that has received most of the notice this season. If UMD wins, the conference still would come down to Week 11 (they still face Plymouth St., who has one loss in conference). If the Bears win, we have havoc in the MASCAC.
	Logan's take: I'm sure some others are following this one, but the Monmouth at Lake Forest game this week will be a great matchup. LFC lost a heartbreaker to Ripon a couple weeks ago, and they'll need to beat Monmouth to have a hope of getting back into the playoffs.
	Riley's take: Union at Hobart. This Liberty League matchup could be interesting. Union is still in contention for the league title, one of three teams undefeated in LL play. But according to the Hansen Ratings (shout-out to Logan for putting those out each week), Hobart has a 52 percent chance to win this contest at home. Hobart's 4-3 record is a bit misleading; this is the same team that fell by just three at RPI two weeks ago. Union must win on Saturday to preserve a path to the playoffs, which adds fuel to the fire in what will be a competitive matchup.

Of the WIAC’s co-leaders, who gets tricks and who gets treats?

	Greg's take: Despite all of the chaos in the WIAC, I do still believe the most likely scenario are that Whitewater and La Crosse win the remainder of their games and both qualify for the postseason- Whitewater through Pool A, La Crosse through Pool C. To that end, The Warhawks and Eagles are in for treats this week, while River Falls and Platteville go on the road and get tricks.
	Pat's take: Tricks for River Falls, treats for Stout, Whitewater and La Crosse.
	Ryan's take: Of the four teams tied at 3-1, I think UW-River Falls is the only team to get "tricked" this weekend by losing to fellow 3-1 team UW-Whitewater, which bounces back in big fashion after last week. I think both Platteville and La Crosse earn their treats -- but ultimately, this is going to leave three tied teams and won't bring a ton of clarity to the WIAC championship race.
	Frank's take: Tricks: Platteville (see above). River Falls (rarely does Whitewater ever lose two consecutive games, and last week was a wake-up call). Treats: Whitewater (they'll rebound vs. River Falls. La Crosse (on the road, they will handle Oshkosh to stay in the hunt).
	Logan's take:  Tricks: UW-River Falls UW-Platteville   Treats: UW-La Crosse UW-Whitewater
	Riley's take: It is easy to let recent memory affect your position on something, but doing that with Whitewater would be a mistake. Platteville is a lot better than I anticipated it would be, and the Warhawks have been impressive in all but two games in 2022 (SJU, Platteville). Yes, Whitewater struggled last week. But we also saw the Warhawks beat exceptional teams in UMHB, La Crosse, and Oshkosh. This is a team that will bounce back convincingly at home against River Falls, earning a major treat as its WIAC title hopes remain alive. Oshkosh will unfortunately take the loss at home on this last weekend in October, as La Crosse pulls out a statement road win. It has been a few weeks since the Eagles were in a real fight (not something I'm used to saying when discussing the WIAC) and they have perhaps the toughest finish to the regular season of any of the league's co-leaders. The rushing attack will be more than enough to keep La Crosse in conference championship contention.

It’s a big week for black cats- how many wins for Panthers in Week 9?

	Greg's take: Five Panther wins this week. Birmingham Southern, Greenville, Hanover, Middlebury, and Plymouth State all take home wins on Saturday.
	Pat's take: Not just a big week for black cats: Saturday is National Cat Day! In honor of that, I'll take a full five Panthers to win in Week 9: Birmingham-Southern, Greenville, Hanover, Middlebury and Plymouth State.
	Ryan's take: Four. Not really hedging on any big surprises this week, so nods go to Greenville, Hanover, Middlebury and Plymouth State.
	Frank's take: Five black cats shall win - BSC beats Hendrix, Greenville defeats Crown, Hanover claws their way to a win vs. Anderson, Middlebury purrs against Colby, and Plymouth State will be the cat's meow against Westfield State.
	Logan's take: There are four games you can feel pretty confident about - Hanover, BSC, PSU, and Greenville - and then Middlebury should be a slight favorite, Ferrum a slight underdog, and LaGrange a longshot. One of those last three should win, making five total.
	Riley's take: Five. BSC should have no problem winning at home against Hendrix behind its rushing attack, and Greenville will follow suit, winning big at home. Despite being on the road, Hanover should leave Anderson with a victory by a wide margin, and both Middlebury and Plymouth State will pick up home wins as well. Only Belhaven and Bridgewater manage to slay Panthers teams in Week 9.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!