/notables/2022/10/quick-hits-week7

Quick Hits: Our predictions for Week 7

Albert Mensah, Bridgewater's leader in touchdowns scored, and the Eagles get the stiffest test of their unbeaten season so far on Saturday at Randolph-Macon.
Bridgewater athletics file photo
 

Can't wait for Saturday? Week 7 has your back with a pair of dyanamite games under the lights tonight. Saturday is going to bring more action to follow in the PAC and MIAA, while the ODAC leaders will also square off. Our panel of experts has once again answered the call to spotlight these games, tell you who is on upset alert, and who might be able to afford to look ahead. 

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: You can't go wrong with either of tonight's games featuring top 25 teams, but I'll go with No. 19 UW-Oshkosh at No. 3 UW-Whitewater as my pick this week. Oshkosh's season is on the line after last week's defeat at River Falls and the Titans have spoiled Whitewater coronations in the past. The Warhawks are doing slighlty less rock-pounding in 2022, but when Evan Lewandowski is on -- and he usually is -- Whitewater is tough to beat. Strap in for another great game in the WIAC. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: I'm going with Bridgewater at No. 18 Randolph-Macon. I'm looking for some new blood among my picks and this battle of ODAC unbeatens should be a fun one.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Muhlenberg at No. 8 Johns Hopkins. Getting a little deja vu spilling over from last year, people had lots of questions about the 2021 Mules after they lost early in the season to Ursinus only to bounce back and beat JHU a few weeks later and make an impressive postseason run. If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on JHU on Friday, but it sure does feel a lot like last year's walkup to the game.
Frank's take: No. 19 UW-Oshkosh at No. 3 UW-Whitewater. Ignore the rankings on this game — the importance for the country is how this begins affecting Pool C at-large bids. It’s possible that the WIAC could wipe each other out to the degree that there’s a winner of Pool A and all 3-loss teams below that. What a weird 2022 it’s been, and that scenario would top it all.
Logan's take: No. 20 Carnegie Mellon at Washington & Jefferson. Since their convincing win against Whitworth, CMU's been doing just enough to win, including an uncomfortably close 7-point win against Waynesburg last week. CMU ranks 173rd nationally in yards per play, the worst figure among the remaining undefeated teams, while W&J ranks in the top 50 nationally in defensive yards per play. If CMU has a long play of 22 yards again, like they did against Waynesburg, the upset potential will be high.
Riley's take: No. 19 UW-Oshkosh at No. 3 UW-Whitewater  You have to love the WIAC. If anyone makes a claim that it's not the nation's most competitive conference, I'd like to hear that argument. Last week saw a thrilling finish between Oshkosh and River Falls. The week prior saw La Crosse nearly stun Whitewater. And the cycle of big-time Top 25 matchups continues on Friday, when Oshkosh and Whitewater face off in an 8 p.m. EDT battle, under the lights. Not only are both teams ranked in the Top 25, but the cliche mentality that every game is important certainly applies here. Oshkosh likely needs this win to stay in Pool C contention, while Whitewater is aiming to keep in step with River Falls atop the WIAC standings. The storylines are endless.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: No. 20 Carnegie Mellon. I talked a little bit in Around The Nation this week about re-evaluating CMU just off of my Top 25 ballot. Last week's scare at Waynesburg could be a wake up call for the Tartans, or could be an indicator that this weekend's game at W&J may be a streak-snapper.  
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: No. 24 Washington U., at Augustana. Greg's On the Spot segment on podcast 312 about trap games just got me thinking, and Augustana is certainly putting a ton of points on the board. Meanwhile, Wash U has that game against North Central in Week 8.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: No. 11 Bethel. Concordia-Moorhead delivered five sacks, forced two turnovers, and rallied hard in the fourth quarter in their narrow loss to St. John's earlier this month. If they can bring that kind of gusto to Bethel, the Royals will have a rough go of it this weekend.
Frank's take: No. 24 Washington U. (at Augustana). Wash. U. is undefeated, but their schedule strength to this point leaves a lot to be desired. This is, to me, the Bears’ first real test, and this is a test on the road that they could lose.
Logan's take: My model says Washington & Jefferson should be a very slight favorite against No. 20 Carnegie Mellon at home. No. 24 WashU is also on upset alert on the road against an up & down Augustana squad.
Riley's take: No. 24 Washington U. In a CCIW showdown, I will take Augustana coming out with a victory on its home turf. This would fall closer to the "upset" category than you may expect, as Augustana is 2-2 in CCIW play and unranked. But the Vikings responded well to a three-point loss to Carroll with a 70-0 shutout of Millikin last week. Augustana's strong pass defense is what will keep the Vikings in this game, as WashU has the top passing attack in the CCIW. If they can come up with a turnover or two, and Augustana QB Cole Bhardwaj continues to raise his completion percentage, the Vikings might just pull out a win that could alter the Pool C situation. 

Pick a winner from a game between unbeaten conference opponents.

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: Sole possession of first place in the NESCAC is on the line this weekend and I'll take Middlebury to defeate Trinity (Conn.) at home. Middlebury quarterback Cole Kennon was outstanding last week in his first career start, earning NESCAC offensive player of the week honors. Kennon will be tested by the Bantam defense, which ranks first in the NESCAC. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Lake Forest, against Ripon. I think Ripon is better tested than Lake Forest, but the special teams play will come in handy for the Foresters.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: No. 18 Randolph-Macon over Bridgewater. On paper, the Yellow Jackets are the clear favorites, boasting a statically better offense. However, aside from last week's Bridgewater game against Shenandoah, neither team has really been tested much this season.
Frank's take: No. 18 Randolph-Macon. Bridgewater has been living on the edge a lot, while the Yellow Jackets haven’t scored less than 40 yet this season. RMC at home in this situation is, I think, unstoppable.
Logan's take: Lake Forest gets it done against Ripon, ending Ron Ernst's undefeated farewell tour. Lake Forest will face their first real test of the season this weekend, but part of the reason they haven't been tested is because they don't let lesser teams hang around for long.
Riley's take: No. 18 Randolph-Macon. Facing Bridgewater in their homecoming game, the Yellow Jackets are rolling. Don't get me wrong, Bridgewater will be the toughest team they've faced up to this point, but I continue to be impressed by the R-MC rushing attack, which averages 281 yards per game. Bridgewater was not especially sharp against the run last week against Shenandoah, and if the Eagle defense is unable to stop (or at least slow) the R-M-C running backs, the hosts will take control quickly. As long as the Yellow Jacket defense holds Bridgewater to 20 points or fewer, R-M-C should remain perfect in 2022.

 

Which game are you following that no one else on the panel is following?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: Ohio Wesleyan at Wabash. The Little Giants had a tremendous Week 6 without having to play a down. DePauw was knocked off by Wittenberg, dropping the Tigers (both of them) into a loss-column tie with Wabash. Denison, who Wabash lost to, lost their second straight game.  The Big Red lost to Ohio Wesleyan- the Battling Bishops entered NCAC play as an afterthought following disappointing results agianst Otterbein and Illinois Wesleyan. This weekend, OWU visits Little Giant Stadium as the lone undefeated team in conference play. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Wilmington at Marietta. The Quakers got cooled off by John Carroll two weeks ago, falling 59-0 after a 3-1 start to the season that included a one-point loss. Wilmington has to be eager to get back on the field.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Finlandia at Martin Luther. Many of us on the panel thought Martin Luther was going to break its 2022 skid last weekend, but it didn't. An even longer skid belongs to Finlandia, which hasn't won any kind of game since 2017, and even then, it wasn't against a Division III program. Both teams are winless right now, and Finlandia has been noticeably improving week-to-week -- though, in fairness, there wasn't really anywhere to go but up for that team.
Frank's take: Brockport at Utica. It’s gauntlet time for the Utica Pioneers, a team that’s won five games — three of them by one possession. This is a good game for Utica to prove they’re legitimate this season, but the Golden Eagles won’t make it easy, as Cortland would tell you from last week.
Logan's take: Dubuque at Coe. The Kohawks are tied atop the ARC with Wartburg right now, but they've yet to play any of the other teams in the top 1/2 of the conference. They've had three different quarterbacks take significant snaps so far this season, and Carter Maske has looked great the last two weeks, albeit against Simpson and Luther. Dubuque similarly gave two QBs reps against Simpson last week.
Riley's take: Hobart at RPI: With its losses to Carnegie Mellon and St. John Fisher, RPI is probably out of Pool C contention. But the Engineers are still very much in the fight for the Liberty League's automatic bid, which would grant them a second straight trip to the playoffs, as one of three 2-0 teams in LL play. This is the featured matchup on the LL slate this week, and for good reason, as Hobart's lone conference loss came at Ithaca last weekend, and the Statesman will be looking to bounce back. Both teams have plenty to play for, which makes this contest a good one to be watching.

 

We know Albion will be in first place after Week 7 in the MIAA. Who, if anybody, will join them?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: While it seems like something has to give in the MIAA- they can't all keep winning, right?- I'm not sure this is the week we'll separate the undefeated teams. Alma is hosting Hope and the surprise Scots should keep rolling against a Flying Dutchman squad that doesn't have the same stakes. Trine could definitely be considered a favorite against Olivet, but I'm going to pick the Comets to run their way to a mild upset win at home and stay tied at the top of the MIAA. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Alma will join them, only missing Adrian for what would be a three-way tie for first among the first three teams alphabetically in Region 4.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Alma should get the best of Hope to keep the Scots undefeated and the only team tied with Albion at the top. And after a strong performance from Trine last week against undefeated Adrian (as well as a favorable common-opponent result), I think the Thunder will knock Olivet out of the undefeated column.
Frank's take: Alma. Hope just doesn’t seem to be having a quality season, and Olivet is facing a rejuvenated Trine team — so only Alma will be left standing with Albion.
Logan's take: Odds are, only one of Alma or Olivet will win this week, and Alma's the safer bet. Among the 23 remaining undefeated teams (sorry NESCAC), Olivet has had the fifth-easiest SOS so far. Among those 23 teams, Olivet's remaining schedule is the toughest.
Riley's take: Trine faces Olivet in what could be a competitive matchup. But the Olivet rushing attack (No. 2 in the nation in rushing YPG) has not disappointed, so I expect Olivet will prevail on its home turf, joining Albion at 2-0 in the MIAA. But they will have company, as I anticipate RB Eddie Williams guiding Alma to a home victory against a Hope squad that enters winless in conference play. So yes, the MIAA will have three 2-0 teams heading into next week.

 

Which team is probably safe to focus on next week?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: No. 1 North Central's biggest remaining test in the regular season is coming next week in St. Louis. This week, the Cardinals host Millikin. The Big Blue are coming off of a 70-0 loss to Augustana which is...not the form you want heading into a game at Bendetti-Wehrli Stadium. I expect the participation report to be lengthy for the Cardinals on Saturday. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Oh, so many teams, starting with No. 1 North Central, although they will have to take the field for that home game against Millikin this week.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: None!!! I can't stress that response enough. Every. Game. Matters.
Frank's take: Cortland (vs. Hartwick). The Hawks won’t give a huge threat to the Red Dragons Saturday, as Cortland prepares to face Utica in Week 8 for what might essentially be the Empire 8 championship.
Logan's take: No. 6 Trinity (Texas) - you can probably feel comfortable with a Trinity victory this weekend against Rhodes, but then the next two weeks will be against Berry and Centre, two teams definitely capable of giving the Tigers a challenge in the SAA.
Riley's take: No. 13 Cortland. The Red Dragons will have a challenge on their hands when traveling to Utica next week, but before they can look that far ahead, Hartwick comes to town on Saturday. Though Hartwick has had its highs throughout the first half of the season, the combination of Cortland playing at home and its high-scoring offense should be enough for a sixth straight win, setting up a crucial road matchup on Oct. 22 against a Utica team that is also 5-0.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!

Dec. 15: All times Eastern
Final
Cortland 38, at North Central (Ill.) 37
@ Salem, Virginia
Video Box Score Recap Photos
Dec. 9: All times Eastern
Final
North Central (Ill.) 34, at Wartburg 27
Box Score Recap
Final
Cortland 49, at Randolph-Macon 14
Box Score Recap Recap Recap Photos
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