Cole Burgess and Cortland's high-flying offense might be held more in check this week against Brockport. Cortland athletics photo by Darl Zehr Photography

Week 6 means that we're going to pass the halfway mark of the regular season and as the weeks go by the stakes get bigger. We've got a clash in the American Rivers Conference that Pat called out for a prediction, so that's coming. Our panel is also watching big games in (where else) Wisconsin and Texas, as well as finding teams that are ready to crack the win column for the first time in 2022. 

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Wartburg and Central are going to get their own space this week. Which other game is your Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: Birmingham Southern at No. 5 Trinity. The SAA’s two playoff teams from 2021 square off in the first of several headliners from this conference. Trinity has played their way into the top 5 which should draw more eyes- and expectations- to the Tigers.
	Pat's take: Monmouth at Chicago. It's not by any stretch the only game that will determine the Midwest Conference (we see you, Lake Forest, Ripon), but it is the first on the list.
	Ryan's take: No. 16 UW-Oshkosh at No. 17 UW-River Falls. I went with the big CCIW matchup last week in this space instead of the WIAC one -- so maybe this week is a chance to remedy that? I'm mostly eager to know more about UWRF, because while they are undefeated outside of a close loss to St. John's, the three wins they have come against relatively weak competition that is 2-11 overall.
	Frank's take: Birmingham-Southern at No. 5 Trinity (Texas). Will the SAA get two playoff slots again this year? This game will go a long way in answering this question. BSC looked impressive last week against Berry, so this looks to be a low-scoring, close game.
	Logan's take: I could pick a WIAC game for this every week, and that's exactly what I'm going to do, with the No. 16 UW-Oshkosh vs No. 17 UW-River Falls game featuring some of the most explosive offenses in the country, and both units seemed to have taken a step forward as they started conference play. Both teams feature outstanding dual-threat quarterbacks, and whichever defense has the better answer for slowing them down will win.
	Riley's take: No. 16 UW-Oshkosh at No. 17 UW-River Falls. These Top 25 WIAC matchups always have a certain hype to them, and this will be no different. In an incredibly deep conference, every game matters, and could shape the Pool C outlook for both of these teams. Oshkosh's only loss came to a non-D3 opponent in Northern Michigan, and UWRF has just dropped just one contest to a very talented St. John's team ranked No. 6. These two teams have suffered their only losses of the season by a combined six points, and I believe three points (or less) will be the margin of victory in this one. UWRF has the league's top scoring offense, and the Oshkosh defense leads the conference in fewest points allowed per game. That matchup alone is worth tuning into this one for.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 22 Albion. Albion looks like they might be a step or so ahead of a deep crowd of challengers in the MIAA. Hope is coming off of a disappointing result in Holland last week. This is a rivalry game where expectations can be turned on their head.
	Pat's take: No. 25 DePauw, I guess? Hard to make a great case for our ranked teams losing to unranked teams this week, but Wittenberg has at least a chance against its fellow set of Tigers.
	Ryan's take: No. 25 DePauw. Last week's games could have gone either way for both DePauw and Wittenberg, and both are typically at or near the top of the NCAC. A big play here or a turnover there could make all the difference again this week.
	Frank's take: No. 9 UW-La Crosse (at UW-Stout). Something feels weird about this game. After UWL’s minor meltdown at the end of their UWW showdown, their focus could be off a bit. Stout’s offense has been — more than stout, and a shootout could ensue in their favor.
	Logan's take: At the risk of being proven wrong again by the Red Dragons, I'm going to stubbornly stick with my preseason prediction that Brockport will win the E8, and doing so will require a win this Saturday. Cortland's offense has been absolutely humming this season, even including a deceivingly low 28-point total against Morrisville. Brockport allowed 24 points against Ithaca, and 10 total in their 3 wins. I think their defense keeps this close enough to get the W.
	Riley's take: No. 14 Cortland. Brockport struggled in its last meeting with a Top 25 opponent (at Ithaca) but I don't see that being the case this time around. Coming off a bye week, the Golden Eagles looked sharp in last Saturday's 25-0 win over St. John Fisher, especially defensively, where SJF did not convert a single third down. Cortland's offense ranks eighth in the country in points per game, so slowing that scoring will be objective No. 1 for the Brockport defense. I would go as far as to say that this game will be won or lost for Brockport based on the way the defense fares, and I'm expecting big things from the Golden Eagle defense in this one.

Of teams scoring over 50 ppg, which team scores farthest from their average this week?

	Greg's take: No. 14. Cortland. Brockport has a stout defense and, I believe, will turn to a clock-controlling style to keep that Cortland offense off the field. I think Cortland can win this game with very few possessions, but anything close to 50 points would be a surprise.
	Pat's take: Other than Johns Hopkins and Aurora (idle), I'm going to take Cortland against Brockport, based entirely on the Brockport-Ithaca game, which Ithaca won 24-0.
	Ryan's take: UW-River Falls, for the reasons I mentioned in the GOTW category.
	Frank's take: Washington U. (vs. Illinois Wesleyan). This is just a better matchup than one in which Wash U. would be able to run away with a game. I think they still win, but they’ll be stuck in the 20s in the win.
	Logan's take: Well, Aurora & Johns Hopkins don't play this week, but that feels like cheating. Here's what my model projects for each teams' offense, with their season average in parentheses. The answer appears to suggest Cortland pretty easily. Carleton - 37.5 (56.5) Mount Union - 46.3 (56) North Central - 53.5 (56) UWRF - 32.4 (54) WashU - 40.9 (51.8) Cortland - 51.2 (21.4) HPU - 50.7 (50.8)
	Riley's take: UW-River Falls. The Oshkosh defense is too good to allow UWRF more than 40 points, much less their average of 54 per game. Though I expect both teams to score at least 20 points, it will be far from an offensive shootout in this week's premier WIAC showdown.

Which game are you following that no one else on the panel is following?

	Greg's take: Redlands at Cal Lutheran. After a September that they definitely do not want to remember, the 0-4 Bulldogs have had two weeks to get ready for this SCIAC opener.  A win here not only keeps the Smudge Pot in Redlands, but would also reestablish the Bulldogs as legitimate contenders in a tightly packed SCIAC.
	Pat's take: No. 9 UW-La Crosse at UW-Stout. People will be following, I'm sure, and it will be interesting to see if Stout can continue its offensive prowess of the past couple of weeks. But it's also the last football game for longtime Sports Information Director Layne Pitt, who is a 1981 Stout graduate and has been the SID at Stout since 1994.
	Ryan's take: Trine at Adrian. Both teams are 4-1, and the MIAA has three teams that are undefeated and none that is at or below .500. I can't remember the last time the conference had this much excitement to it. These games will be particularly fun to keep an eye on as we go through the midway point in the regular season.
	Frank's take: I’m going to withhold my answer to this, as I’m attending a game that the panel might be taking for granted this week — but I’m not revealing which game it is. Check my Twitter activity Saturday afternoon to see where I land.
	Logan's take: Monmouth at Chicago. After St. Norbert left the MWC, I assumed Monmouth would easily be the favorite to win the MWC every year. That didn't come to fruition in 2021, and it appears the Scots will need to battle just to stay in second place this season, with Chicago and Lake Forest playing outstanding football so far this season.
	Riley's take: University of New England at Husson. This Commonwealth Coast Conference battle, dubbed the "2nd Annual Lobster Trap Game", is set up to be one of the closest games of the weekend. Featuring the CCC's top passer in New England's Jarrett Henault. and Husson's Tucker Buzzell, the conference's leading tackler, I have a feeling that one of these teams will have a breakout performance in a contest decided on the final possession.

34 winless teams remain- pick two to win in Week 6. 

	Greg's take: I'm going to take Southern Virginia over Greensboro in a game between winless USAC teams.  I'll avoid the other game between winless teams (Martin Luther vs. Crown) and go with Geneva over Allegheny.  PAC foes are accustomed to Geneva's unconvential offense, but Allegheny are the new kids on the block and will be matching up against it for the first time.
	Pat's take: Amherst. Hard to imagine that Amherst is 0-3 but logic still dictates that I need to pick the Mammoths over similarly winless Bates. Martin Luther should be able to get off of the winless list as well.
	Ryan's take: Martin Luther will get the best of fellow winless team Crown, and North Park, which will edge out Carthage and its 230th-ranked defense.
	Frank's take: Martin Luther (vs. Crown), as a close call vs. Greenville will provide the springboard needed this week against Crown. Also, Austin (vs. Texas Lutheran), as the Roos actually held up well vs. UMHB last week for longer than most people expected.
	Logan's take: I actually have four winless teams favored this week. The two biggest favorites are Martin Luther (over 0-4 Crown) and Southern Virginia (over 0-5 Greensboro). Westminster (Mo.) and Redlands are also favored to get the monkey off their back in tighter contests against a couple of 3-2 opponents.
	Riley's take: My first pick is Martin Luther over Crown. Playing at home, the Knights have had a rough go of it, including a three-point loss to Greenville a week ago. But they won't let this one slip away, especially considering Crown is also winless on the season. My second pick might be a stretch but I'm going to take Geneva winning at home against Allegheny. Neither team has looked especially sharp defensively, and this could turn into a high-scoring affair if the Geneva offense finds a way to improve on its 27-point loss at Case Western Reserve two weeks ago, coming off a bye week.

Predict a winner and a score for Wartburg at Central.

	Greg's take: It's hard to overstate how good Wartburg has looked and if there's a team in the top 25 that is being undervalued most, it's probably Wartburg. I would have pegged this to be a close game just a couple of weeks ago, but the common opponent results vs. Loras are telling. I do expect Central to esceed Wartrburg's current 2 points per game scoring defense, but not by enough to get a victory.  Wartburg 27, Central 13.
	Pat's take: Wartburg 28, Central 24. I love Central holding quarterback auditions last week and Cooper Downs, a transfer from St. John's, threw five touchdowns in the third quarter to earn the starting role in this game. Central has a good chance in this game, but I've picked Wartburg. As Greg points out above, I did call this out in our podcast recording session as a game which needed a prediction, but since the podcast was already long (Keith!) I left it on the cutting room floor. Mea maxima culpa.
	Ryan's take: I'm going to bank on defense to elevate Wartburg -- the Knights have given up only 10 points all season, while Central has given up at least 10 points in every game but one. Nod goes to Wartburg in a 28-13 game.
	Frank's take: It just seems like Wartburg has a huge edge in defense right now, and defense wins (conference) championships. I see this becoming more lopsided than I think some expect, with Wartburg beating the Dutch, 34-10.
	Logan's take: Putting on my big J journalist hat (I don't actually have that hat), I'm still sticking with Wartburg. My model has the Knights favored by about a TD, but I don't think that does justice to how well they've played this season. They have the 3rd-best opponent-adjusted margin of victory in the country right now, behind only UMHB, Mount Union, and North Central. That's not terrible company to be in. Central is averaging 42 points per game, but their opponents are allowing nearly 39 ppg (Wartburg is allowing only 2 ppg). Knights win big, 34-14.
	Riley's take: Wartburg, 31, Central, 17. The Wartburg defense has been incredibly impressive this season, allowing just 10 points over five games, and while Central will score a bit more, I don't see the Knights giving up too much. Central's passing attack ranks as the league's best, but the Dutch haven't faced a defense like Wartburg's yet. Everyone knows what is on the line in this one, and that will only fuel the intensity of the matchup. Central is at home on homecoming, and in a must-win situation after the loss to Loras, but Wartburg will capture its first win since 2018 in this rivalry, and probably the ARC title in the process.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!