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| The Bears of Wash U have their destiny in their own hands still in the College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin race. But if they beat Wheaton and lose to North Central, they might look good as an at-large candidate. Washington U. athletics photo |
By Greg Thomas
D3sports.com
By this point of a Division III football season, certain things start to come into focus. We can reevaluate teams without being anchored to preseason expectations, true contenders for conference championships emerge, and player of the year candidates start to separate themselves in their conferences. Week 7 is also about the time that Around the Nation likes to narrow the aperture and start to focus on the race for the postseason.
We know that 27 of the 32 teams playing in the Division III championship will qualify automatically by winning their conference’s regular season championship. The other five teams will be selected by the national selection committee (no, D3football.com does not pick the at-large teams, and they are not based on our Top 25 poll) based on a set of primary and secondary criteria that will be the subject of much conversation on D3football.com over the next four weeks leading up to Selection Sunday, Nov. 13.
This week, Around the Nation is going to set the table for the final month of the season by looking at the playoff picture in each of the six regions, with a focus on the at-large (or Pool C) contenders in each region. Is your team in play for one of those golden tickets to the postseason? If your team is playing for an at-large bid, D3football.com scoreboard watching will be a must — which games from around the country should you have your eye on over the last month? Your primer to the postseason chase follows.
Region 1 (New England-ish)
Conferences: CCC, ECFC, MAC, MASCAC, NEWMAC
Conferences in Region 1 have not been selected in the at-large pool since Delaware Valley was selected as the MAC runner up. 2022 is probably not going to be the year where that streak is broken. Presently, only Delaware Valley and Endicott are undefeated in Region 1 and are significant favorites to win their conferences. Should either be upset in conference play and not qualify automatically, 9-1 records would almost certainly have either in the Pool C discussion, but likely lacking the kind of profile that will warrant selection. The MAC has had a nice season in non-conference play which will buoy Delaware Valley’s strength of schedule, but their Week 1 win against Westminster may not wind up netting a win over a regionally ranked opponent, which is an important box to check in the primary criteria.
Hypothesizing about Delaware Valley as the best Region 1 at-large candidate requires a leap though — the Aggies have won 40 consecutive MAC games and seem well on their way to another automatic qualifying season. Everybody else in Region 1 will need to win their conference championship to qualify.
Games with Pool C implications: Delaware Valley at Lebanon Valley (Oct. 15), Wilkes at Delaware Valley (Oct. 22), Salve Regina at Endicott (Nov. 5), Endicott at Western New England (Nov. 12)
Selection Sunday prognosis: Barring a major upset in the MAC, Region 1 will be shut out of the at-large bids yet again in 2022.
Region 2 (New York-ish)
Conferences: CC, E8, LL, NJAC, PAC
The strength of conferences in Region 2 is significantly higher than Region 1, so you won’t be surprised to see several viable at-large candidates emerge. Muhlenberg is not a Pool C candidate from the Centennial Conference, but the Mules could find themselves making Johns Hopkins a Pool C player by defeating the Blue Jays this weekend. Like Hopkins, Susquehanna could be an attractive at-large candidate were they to finish the season 9-1. As you’ll read in sections for Regions 3 and 6, there will be plenty of at-large teams that have notched significant wins- something that teams from the CC typically lack with their one non-conference opportunity. The selection committee though has had an affinity for runners up from the CC, selecting the conference’s second place team twice in the last three tournaments.
In the Empire 8, Cortland and Utica are undefeated and will face off in Week 8 for the inside track on the conference’s automatic bid. The loser of that game will have a strong case for an invitation to the tournament- particularly if Cortland should lose to Utica and beat Ithaca in the Cortaca Jug game in Week 11. Utica’s postseason chances will rely on the Pioneers ability to split, in any way, their next two games against Brockport and Cortland.
The Liberty League’s only viable shot at an at-large bid appears to be Ithaca, should the Bombers not win the league championship. 9-1 Ithaca with a win over Cortland in Week 11 should be a lock. 8-2 Ithaca with a loss to the LL champion and Cortland will put the Bombers in a very familiar, and uncomfortable position.
The Presidents’ Athletic Conference race is a tight four team race. While the likely scenario is that these teams will knock each other out of contention, keep an eye on Grove City. At 4-1, the Wolverines have already lost to conference leader, Carnegie Mellon, and could be an attractive team if they win out. Washington & Jefferson has a chance to knock Carnegie Mellon out of first place this week — the Tartans have played a strong schedule in 2022 and could also be a viable at-large choice should they not win the PAC’s automatic bid in a multi-way tie situation.
While the NJAC is improved over 2021, Pool C will remain closed to them in 2022.
Games with Pool C implications: Muhlenberg at Johns Hopkins (Oct. 14), Brockport at Utica (Oct. 15), Utica at Cortland (Oct. 22), Johns Hopkins at Susquehanna (Oct. 29), Ithaca at Union (Nov. 5), Cortland vs. Ithaca (Nov. 12)
Selection Sunday prognosis: I’m rating this as fair. There are six or seven teams in Region 2 that could reasonably end as runners up with one loss and would be good candidates for selection.
Region 3 (South Atlantic-ish)
Conferences: ASC, ODAC, SAA, USAC
One season ago, Region 3 did collect one of the at-large bids to the tournament, though it was not the powerhouse American Southwest Conference that sent a second team. The Southern Athletic Association was awarded that Pool C bid. Both SAA teams were eliminated by national champion Mary Hardin-Baylor, but the message delivered was that Pool C bids aren’t just for the ASC anymore.
The SAA continues to be very competitive at the top of the conference, however non-conference losses by Birmingham-Southern, Centre, and Berry mean that only an upset of conference leader Trinity would make two SAA teams playing in the postseason possible. Trinity, should it not secure the SAA’s automatic bid, would be a very attractive Pool C candidate with a profile that includes a win over Wheaton.
Hardin-Simmons may not have been the team with the best profile to not make the 2021 tournament (hello, Ithaca), but the Cowboys’ absence drew the loudest jeers. Hardin-Simmons used the ASC’s extra non-conference opportunity to get a compelling in-divison game, which they well took advantage of in a blowout win at UW-Platteville. Having lost their head to head game to UMHB, the Cowboys will be looking at an at-large invitation to the tournament. That invitation looks much more likely this season, if the Cowboys can avoid another loss down the stretch. Should Howard Payne shock the world and send UMHB into the at-large pool, the Cru would find themselves very much on the bubble with two losses.
Over in the Old Dominion, there have quietly emerged three legitimate contenders for an at-large bid. Randolph-Macon and Bridgewater are undefeated so far this season, while Shenandoah is 4-1, having lost only to Bridgewater. Should any of these teams reach the 9-1 plateau, they would have relatively compelling at-large profiles. Washington & Lee is also undefeated in ODAC play, but with an out of conference loss, collecting a second loss during ODAC play would knock the Generals out of contention.
The USA South conference has performed better overall than they did in 2021 and notched a signature win with Huntingdon’s triumph in the Wesley Cup over Birmingham-Southern, but there does not appear to be a serious Pool C contender in the conference. Belhaven could complete a 9-1 season, but their profile doesn’t appear to play as well as Hardin-Simmons or the ODAC runner up.
Games with Pool C implications: Bridgewater at Randolph-Macon (Oct. 15), Randolph-Macon at Shenandoah (Oct. 22), Berry at Trinity (Oct. 22), Howard Payne at Hardin-Simmons (Oct. 29), Randolph-Macon at Washington & Lee (Oct. 29), Trinity at Centre (Oct. 29), UMHB at Howard Payne (Nov. 5), Washington & Lee at Bridgewater (Nov. 5), Shenandoah at Washington & Lee (Nov. 12)
Selection Sunday prognosis: Looking good. Hardin-Simmons looks more likely than not to be the region’s top at-large choice and it would be hard to see the Cowboys not among the five selections in that scenario. A 9-1 ODAC team may also present well.
Region 4 (Great Lakes-ish)
Conferences: HCAC, MIAA, NCAC, OAC
There was once a time when you could basically count on the runner up from the Ohio Athletic Conference playing in the postseason, but the OAC’s quasi-automatic bid looks like a thing of the past. The OAC has only placed their champion into the tournament in three of the last four tournaments, and 2022 similarly will not produce an at-large team — barring an upset of Mount Union by John Carroll.
The North Coast Athletic Conference and the Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference have each played themselves out of serious at-large consideration. Any runner up in the NCAC is going to have multiple losses. Mount St. Joseph’s best win looks like Hope, and Hope looks unlikely to crack the regional rankings. So while the Lions currently lead the HCAC and are undefeated, a slip in conference play coupled with their lack of a regionally ranked win make it hard to see them as a viable at-large team.
The real developing situation in Region 4 is happening in the Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association. We’ve chronicled the MIAA’s gaudy non-conference record at D3football.com and as we head into Week 7, the conference still has three undefeated teams in addition to Trine, who is 4-1 overall and 1-1 in conference play — meaning the Thunder could get to 9-1 and not win the conference. Why is this important? The MIAA has never been awarded an at-large bid to the tournament in the AQ era (1999-present). 2022 is shaping up to be the conference’s best chance to to place a second team into the field. Why now? The MIAA has a good chance to have as many as three teams crack the regional rankings. If that happens, an MIAA runner up could bring at least one regionally ranked win to the table — and those are priceless at selection time. Whether it is Albion (.488 SOS through six weeks), Alma (.410 SOS), Olivet (.496), or Trine (.596) — any of these teams that finish 9-1 will get a lot of consideration for inclusion in the field of 32.
Games with Pool C implications: Trine at Olivet (Oct. 15), Albion at Trine (Oct. 22), Alma at Olivet (Oct. 29), Olivet at Albion (Nov. 5), John Carroll at Mount Union (Nov. 5), Rose-Hulman at Mount St. Joseph (Nov. 12), Albion at Alma (Nov. 12)
Selection Sunday prognosis: There is cause to be optimistic — if you’re in Michigan. There don’t appear to be viable candidates in the OAC, NCAC, or HCAC, but the MIAA has a chance to make a little history if they can get a runner up to finish the season 9-1.
Region 5 (Central-ish)
Conferences: ARC. CCIW, MWC, NACC
The Collegiate Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin has become one of the more consistent outlets for an at-large team having placed two teams in four of the last five tournaments. Top ranked North Central appears on its way to the regular season crown, leaving a battle for second place between Wheaton and Washington University. Wheaton has already lost twice, but with losses to Trinity (who could possibly be the No. 1 ranked team in Region 3) and North Central (the likely No. 1 team in Region 5), the Thunder could have the profile for selection even if they finish 8-2. WashU, on the other hand, is undefeated and still has opportunities, at home, to beat Wheaton and North Central. A split in those games would very likely launch the Bears into the postseason for the first time since 2016 when they won the SAA’s automatic bid.
The Midwest Conference currently has two undefeated teams (Lake Forest and Ripon) and Chicago is 4-1 with their one loss in conference. While there are a few scenarios here that could leave the MWC with a 9-1 runner up, these teams all lack the kind of win that is likely to get traction in the at-large selection process. The MWC has been awarded an at large bid in the past, when Illinois College received an invitation in 2011.
In the American Rivers Conference, any team except Wartburg would have multiple losses if they did not win the conference. Wartburg, should they be upset and lose the ARC’s automatic qualifier, would be a strong candidate. Non-conference wins against UW-Stout and Monmouth will benefit the Knights from a strength of schedule standpoint, and may net a regionally ranked win if Monmouth can keep winning.
The Northern Athletics Collegiate Conference, while always entertaining, does not have a viable at-large team.
Games with Pool C implications: Ripon at Lake Forest (Oct. 15), North Central at Washington U. (Oct. 22), Chicago at Ripon (Oct. 22), Monmouth at Lake Forest (Oct. 29), Wheaton at Washington U. (Nov. 5), Ripon at Monmouth (Nov. 5), Wartburg at Coe (Nov. 12), Lake Forest at Chicago (Nov. 12)
Selection Sunday prognosis: Region 5 isn’t DOA on Selection Sunday, but unless WashU can get in to clubhouse at 9-1, don’t be surprised to see the region get shut out of the at-large bids this year.
Region 6 (Midwest and West-ish)
Conferences: MIAC NWC, SCIAC, UMAC, WIAC
Region 6 has been the center of the swirling Division III galaxy in 2022. The region is home to D3football.com’s top two ranked conferences, and so many of the marquee games that have gobbled up headlines have either been between teams in Region 6, or have taken place in Region 6. If there’s any place where an at-large bid is a lock, it’s probably Region 6.
The Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference is the best conference in Division III and it isn’t close. Multiple teams have played in the postseason in each of the last two tournaments. Look no further than the depth of quality in this conference for the reason why that streak doesn’t go back further- it is incredibly hard to survive this conference without multiple losses.
UW-Whitewater has delivered the first major blow in the 2022 WIAC championship race by defeating UW-La Crosse in Week 5. The Eagles now find themselves playing to finish with just that one loss, which would certainly be good enough to return to the postseason.
The two undefeated WIAC teams, UW-Whitewater and UW-River Falls, have each already lost- both to St. John’s. The winner of their matchup will have the inside track to the WIAC championship, while the loser will be sweating it out in Pool C with multiple losses. The Warhawks have the most impressive non-conference win in the Division, knocking off defending national champion UMHB in Week 2. That win, plus the win against La Crosse would make UW-Whitewater about as attractive as any 2-loss team could possibly be.
Over in the Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference, we’re assuming that Bethel and St. John’s are going to play in the MIAC championship game. The loser will have two losses, and if that loser is St. John’s they will have lost twice to Bethel. Bethel found themselves in the exact same situation in 2021- two losses to St. John’s — and were selected. Should the Johnnies not with MIAC championship, 8-2 with wins over Whitewater and River Falls is a very good place to be. If Bethel loses in the MIAC championship, they will also be 8-2, with important context around their loss at Platteville (notably, the absence of Jaran Roste) and will have a win over St. John’s, which is also a good looking profile.
One other MIAC piece of business here — Carleton is 5-0. Because of the MIAC’s unbalanced schedule, The Knights will only have to play St. John’s and not Bethel. There are still significant challenges, but Carleton could reach 9-1 which could well be enough for some consideration.
In the Northwest Conference, only Linfield appears to be a viable at-large candidate, which would of course require somebody to beat the Wildcats — something that has not been done in their last 22 NWC games.
The SCIAC and UMAC are both shaping up to have exciting races for their conference championships, but losses have accumulated across each of the main contenders in these conferences such that Pool C will be closed for these conferences in 2022.
Games with Pool C implications: UW-Oshkosh at UW-Whitewater (Oct. 14), Linfield at George Fox (Oct. 29), UW-La Crosse at UW-Oshkosh (Oct. 29), UW-River Falls at UW-Whitewater (Oct. 29), Carleton at St. John’s (Nov. 5), UW-River Falls at UW-La Crosse (Nov. 5), MIAC Championship (Nov. 12)
Selection Sunday prognosis: About as close to a lock as you can get, even if the top-at large teams have two losses. The aggressive non-conference scheduling that highlighted the first three weeks of the season is going to pay off for somebody. Whether it’s coming out of the WIAC, the MIAC, or both, Region 6 should get at least one at-large bid.
Rising/Falling
I was surprised to not see Wartburg move up further this week. As I hinted at in the Around the Nation Podcast this week, I took the midway point of the season as a time to start from scratch, building my ballot with 2022 data and letting go of my initial, preseason expectations for teams. That reassessment moved Wartburg from 16 on my ballot up to 10.
The other big riser on my ballot was Washington University. The Bears have been obliterating every team in their path, including Illinois Wesleyan in Week 6 — really the Bears’ first decent test of the season. The Bears have experience, are getting great play from quarterback Matt Rush, and will host both North Central and Wheaton in St. Louis. The table is set for Washington U. to have a special season.
My big faller this week was Carnegie Mellon, who I moved from No. 19 on my ballot to off. If we were allowed to rank 26 teams, Carnegie Mellon would be on my ballot. The Tartans are undefeated against a difficult schedule and have been hanging on offensively in the absence of running back Tre Vasiliadis. This weekend’s scare at Waynesburg gave me pause about the Tartans’ ceiling, though I have no doubt about their resilience.
On tap
We kick off the final five weeks of the regular season on Saturday which means the march to the postseason is on. You can get all of the important results and analysis here at D3football.com. Here’s what you can watch for every week as we gear up for the playoffs at D3football.com:
Tomorrow: Quick Hits featuring our panel’s predictions and insights into this weekend’s games
Saturday: Game day. The D3football.com Scoreboard has all of your links for stats and broadcasts.
Sunday: New Top 25 poll
Monday: Around the Nation podcast. Pat Coleman and Greg Thomas recap the weekend that was and preview the weekend to come in Division III football.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Team of the Week honors, features columns
Thursday: Around the Nation column
Read options?
Small college football is actually pretty massive. Division III is home to 240 teams, many thousands of student-athletes and coaches. There are so many more stories out there than I can find on my own. Please share your stories that make Division III football so special for all of us! Reach out to me at greg.thomas@d3sports.com or on Twitter @wallywabash to share your stories.
