/notables/2022/09/quick-hits-week5

Quick Hits: Our predictions for Week 5

Last year, North Central regained the Little Brass Bell, the symbol of the rivalry between North Central and Wheaton, schools just 8 miles apart in the Chicago suburbs.
Photo by Pat Coleman, D3sports.com
 

Division III is starting October with a bang and putting a handful of this week's best games on under the lights in prime time. UW-Whitewater will play their third top 10 opponent in four games, while North Central welcomes Wheaton with their No. 1 ranking and the Little Brass Bell on the line. We're also watching for upsets in the MAC, PAC, and Liberty League, tracking top four clashes in the North Coast, and so much more. Our panel of experts has assembled once again to give you a primer on the highlights in Week 5. 

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

Greg Thomas head shot

Greg's take: The panel is going to tell you all about No. 3 UW-Whitewater at No 9 UW-La Crosse and No. 11 Wheaton at No. 1 North Central- the beauty is that we don't have to choose! Thanks to the staggered start times, we can all enjoy both of these games in their entirety, which would be an awesome next step in the evolution of the postseason tournament, please.  If I'm forced to pick one, my lean is to the game in La Crosse -- Evan Lewandowski returning to play against his former team adds an extra layer of intrigue to a game that didn't need any help. But really, both are must watch events tomorrow. 

Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: No. 11 Wheaton at No. 1 North Central. I love me a good WIAC Top 10 battle as well, but the Little Brass Bell game is North Central's first big test of the year, and that's important in a season where so many top 10 teams have had big tests already.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: No. 11 Wheaton at No. 1 North Central. The outcome of the iconic Little Brass Bell rivalry will be a huge factor come playoff time -- a Wheaton loss likely puts them out of the discussion. The Thunder have already played a very tough team this season, but stopping the Cardinals' offense is going to be a monumental task.
Frank's take: No. 11 Wheaton at No. 1 North Central. This really seems like THE test for North Central this regular season, as the CCIW seems to have a lot of separation between these two teams and the rest of the pack. The Cardinals could benefit from a close win to help prepare them for the playoffs — and the result will potentially help voters tell just how good Trinity is this season.
Logan's take: No. 3 UW-Whitewater at No. 9 UW-La Crosse. It's the two best teams in the best conference in the country, no need to overthink this. Whitewater has the best defense in the country, a win over the defending champs, and a former Eagle playing quarterback. La Crosse has a win over a respectable DII team, my preseason pick for national DPOTY, and home field advantage. You won't want to miss this one.
Riley's take: No. 3 UW-Whitewater at No. 9 UW-La Crosse. This could be the game of the year in the WIAC, and for the third time in the last four weeks, we have a Top 10 matchup on the schedule. Just as UMHB-HSU was the unofficial ASC championship game last Saturday, this contest is likely to decide the winner of the WIAC. La Crosse is at home, which could play a role, though historically the games played at UWL have been more one-sided in Whitewater's favor than the ones played in Whitewater. The Warhawks have won the last 15 contests in this series, but UWL has plenty of momentum entering this matchup too. This could be the year UWL breaks through.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: No. 13 Ithaca. On the road in the Liberty League is treacherous ground. The Bombers have been the class of the league in the first month, but Hobart's one blip came with senior quarterback David Krewson unavaialble to play against Morrisville State. Aside from that game, the Statesmen have looked pretty solid. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: No. 15 Delaware Valley. I have a feeling that will probably be a popular pick, although I could see cases for Ithaca, Morrisville State, UW-Oshkosh, Carnegie Mellon, DePauw being chosen. Stevenson has already knocked off one Top 25 team and could do it again.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: No. 21 Wartburg. As much as the Knights may want to be crowned the team to beat in the ARC, Loras is also undefeated in conference play and has that upset achievement from Week 3 against Central that is surely driving them forward.
Frank's take: While UMHB fans are hoping I pick them to lose to Austin (the reverse jinx), I’m picking against No. 15 Delaware Valley (at Stevenson). The Aggies have just seemed lackluster at times this season, and this road game for them against another undefeated MAC rival is going to be a tough game for them. I have a feeling Coach Hottle’s offense is in a good position to jump out early and keep DelVal playing from behind all game.
Logan's take: Depending on how you define upset, it's either No 3 UW-Whitewater on the road (I have No. 9 UW-La Crosse favored by 2 points), or No. 18 Carnegie Mellon hosting unranked Westminster. I have CMU favored by 2.5 points in this one, and the Tartans have shown that they can win however they need to against good teams - dominating Whitworth, in a defensive slugfest against RPI, or in a shootout against Grove City. Westminster is probably better than those other three, but they haven't been tested like CMU has been.
Riley's take: No. 18 Carnegie Mellon. CMU is at home in this one, but hosts a dangerous Westminster (Pa.) team that has had two full weeks to prepare for this game. The Titans of Westminster have made improvement since the 22-8 loss at Delaware Valley in the season opener, and the team we see on Saturday has the potential to go toe-to-toe with the Tartans, who are still undefeated. Westminster has the top passing defense in the PAC, and CMU's offensive strength is in its passing game. If Westminster limits the big plays through the air, the Titans' chances of winning the game improve dramatically.

Who will be leading the North Coast Athletic Conference after Saturday?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: I've waffled on this one all week and I think the answer is going to be Denison. It may sound silly, but there's a certain mystical something that happens when the Big Red go under the lights at Deeds Field. If the Big Red can avoid too much of an exhale after their emotional win at Wabash last week, the Big Red can leave Week 5 with wins over what may be their two top rivals for the NCAC title. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Denison, alone. With Ohio Wesleyan a half-game behind/tied in the loss column.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: The Tigers. Did I hedge myself enough with that answer? OK, so I'm referring to both DePauw and Wittenberg. DePauw has been on my Top 25 ballot for a couple of weeks, and while Denison showed amazing grit with late-game (and last-second) scores to beat Wabash, I think DePauw has a much stouter defense and won't let the game come down to those kinds of moments. And with Witt, they're up against a Wabash team that has given up 163 points in four games. Witt at home is the safer bet.
Frank's take: DePauw. The streak of three consecutive shutouts by the Tigers might not last against a potent Denison offense, but their winning streak will continue as DePauw is shining on both sides of the football.
Logan's take: My model only has DePauw favored by a half point over Denison and Wittenberg by a point over Wabash. These matchups are as close as it can get, with a classic immovable object/unstoppable force matchup between DePauw's defense and Denison's offense, and two balanced offensive attacks from Wittenberg and Wabash. I think the offenses will make the difference in a double Tiger victory.
Riley's take: Denison. Playing at home against a very good DePauw team, a win will not come easily, but the Denison offense as a whole continues to be an impressive aspect of this squad. Wittenberg is the third 2-0 team in the league, though I'm going with Wabash in that matchup, as the Little Giants will rebound from the Denison loss a week ago. That leaves Denison as the league's lone 3-0 team after Week 5.

 

Which game are you following that no one else on the panel is following?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: Pomona-Pitzer at Chapman. If only because my Eastern time zone co-panelists will shut it down after a long day of tremendous games. SCIAC play gets underway this weekend and this game will help determine an early favorite. The Sagehens are a furious Pacific rally away from being 4-0 this season, while Chapman's lone blemish is to NWC contender Geroge Fox. Should be a fun game in Orange Saturday night. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Belhaven at Methodist. If nothing else, I'm trying to follow what game it's being played on, as this game and the LaGrange-N.C. Wesleyan game were moved to Friday, and back to Saturday. Everyone in the path of this storm, please stay safe!
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Any of the winless teams in the HCAC. There are six teams in the conference that are 0-3 so far, and as it so happens, three of them play the other three this weekend. So for the sakes of these players, we know there are going to be a lot of losing skids that get broken on Saturday and hopefully a change in momentum for some.
Frank's take: It’s a two-fer this week, as the PAC gets a huge spotlight with two marquee games - Case Western Reserve at Grove City at 2pm ET & Westminster at Carnegie Mellon at 7pm ET. The results will tell us just who the “Leaders of the PAC” are, and I’ll be fortunate enough to witness both games in person Saturday.
Logan's take: There are just too many good games this week. I can count 7, 8, or 9 games across the country that could end up being de-facto title games, with even more having Pool C impacts. One that's a little off the radar may be Grove City vs. CWRU. The Wolverines have quietly become a consistent conference contender in the PAC, but haven't been able to break through to the playoffs. In a conference with 5 legit contenders, nobody's too likely to run the table, so a Pool A bid is still within reach.
Riley's take: Berry at Birmingham-Southern. These are two exceptional teams out of Region 3, and despite both being unranked, this game could be one talked about as Pool C candidates begin being considered come late October/earlyNovember. Berry's lone loss is to No. 3 UW-Whitewater, and BSC dropped a three-point game to Huntington in Week 2. The SAA opener for both squads, I'll be keeping a close eye on the way each defense responds to the other's offensive scheme; BSC is excellent on the ground, while Berry's passing attack is one of the SAA's best. Expect a high-scoring, closely-contested battle in Birmingham on Saturday night.

 

Which unbeaten, unranked team will make the strongest statement for Top 25 votes?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: Stevenson. The Mustangs have already notched a win over the NJAC favorite Salisbury. If Stevenson can serve Delaware Valley their first MAC defeate in two and a half seasons, they would be in line for serious Top 25 consideration. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Morrisville State. I'm going for unranked/unvoted for, like in this week's Around the Nation podcast. If they do, however, I am picturing it more in terms of keeping it close, rather than actually upsetting Cortland.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Denison and Morrisville State have the best chances to be propelled into the Top 25 with victories, but both are playing undefeated teams themselves, and I don't think a win is in the cards for either.
Frank's take: Stevenson (vs. No. 15 Delaware Valley). I can’t underscore enough how important this game could be if the Mustangs are able to pull off the win, as they’ve been trying to build a team that is capable of winning the MAC for several years. A win here is a surefire Top 25 launcher for Stevenson.
Logan's take: I count 20 such teams right now, with one idle (Olivet), and only one playing a ranked opponent (Stevenson hosting Del Val). I don't think Stevenson wins that game, and most of the other matchups featuring a team close to the Top 25 should be blowouts. I'm picking Trine over fellow unbeaten Alma. I had Trine in a group of 3 or 4 teams just on the outside of my Top 25 ballot this week.
Riley's take: Denison. If the Big Red finds a way to take down No. 25 DePauw, Top 25 votes should come its way in a hurry.

 

Pick an upset winner in a conference ATN ranked in the top 5.

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: I'm going to the MIAC where I think Macalester and the Division III leader in total offense, Michael Nadeau, will stun Carleton and win The Book of Knowledge for the first time since 2018. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: St. Scholastica, at home against Hamline. I don't know that I love too many of our choices in these conference, but the Saints might have a shot at their first conference win since they moved to the MIAC.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: I hemmed and hawed through this question, because nothing really jumps out with significant upset potential. UW-Platteville over UW-Oshkosh is as good a pick as any. But even with Bethel's stock going way up this past week, Platteville's win over the Royals earlier in the season still doesn't feel like it'll translate well to this Saturday.
Frank's take: Marietta (vs. Baldwin Wallace) in the OAC. Coming into the season, Baldwin Wallace thought they had a reasonable pathway into the playoffs, but the season has been a major struggle. Marietta can use this game to continue momentum toward a winning season, which several people came into the season not expecting.
Logan's take: Augsburg is undefeated, but they've played one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the country. They travel to St. Olaf this week, and despite a 56-28 Auggie victory last season, I think the Oles win this one at home.
Riley's take: I'm going out on a limb here, as Augsburg is 3-0 overall and atop the Skyline division standings in the MIAC, but St. Olaf could spring a surprise on its home turf. The Oles have won their last two, and have a slight advantage over the Augsburg defense in the rushing game.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!

Dec. 15: All times Eastern
Final
Cortland 38, at North Central (Ill.) 37
@ Salem, Virginia
Video Box Score Recap Photos
Dec. 9: All times Eastern
Final
North Central (Ill.) 34, at Wartburg 27
Box Score Recap
Final
Cortland 49, at Randolph-Macon 14
Box Score Recap Recap Recap Photos
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