Yes, there's a big game in Texas that will certainly be on our front page all weekend, but keep an eye on Belhaven-Huntingdon and many others. Belhaven athletics photo

Week 4 gets us more or less one third through our regular season, and brings us one of the most anticipated conference games of the year. No. 5 Mary Hardin-Baylor visits No. 6 Hardin-Simmons with the winner taking the pole position in the race for the American Southwest Conference. A game this big means mandatory picks from our panel of experts. We've got other big conference matchups in Minnesota, Ohio, and Alabama, as well as a smattering of intriguing non-conference games as we close out September. 

Our regular crew of Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas break down Week 4 in Division III football below!

— Greg Thomas

We’ll get to THAT game in a few questions. Which other game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: No. 19 Heidelberg at John Carroll. Last season, Heidelberg walked John Carroll off in Week 10 by stuffing a fourth-and-goal attempt at their own 1-yard line, then scoring on the first play of their overtime possession. That game was in Tiffin; tomorrow the Student Princes can clear a huge obstacle by beating the Blue Streaks in University Heights. Montavous Yearby comes in hot for the Student Princes, rushing for over 180 yards and two scores in last week's Bendo Bowl victory.
	Pat's take: No. 2 St. John's at No. 20 Bethel, if Jaran Roste plays quarterback for Bethel. He hasn't since the first quarter of the season. Otherwise, I think No. 23 Albion at UW-Eau Claire will be quite fun to watch.
	Ryan's take: Belhaven at Huntingdon. Yup, going outside the Top 25 to focus on what is essentially the USAC's de facto conference title game. The Hawks have looked good all season, and the Blazers had a bye week for some extra prep.
	Frank's take: Ursinus at Franklin & Marshall. It's rare for me to pick two unranked teams in this category, but with all due respect, voters -- Ursinus should be ranked. The Bears were one yard away from potentially a 3-0 season. The Diplomats and Bears both absolutely need this win to stay alive in the Centennial Conference, which remains an enigma in the same way that it did last season at this point. This game is worth watching.
	Logan's take: With another probable matchup looming in Week 11 and Jaran Roste still not competing, I'm going to eschew SJU/Bethel, and go with Centre at Trine. Both teams are undefeated. Both conferences should have teams on the bubble for Pool C. Both teams are balanced all around, and each have wins over championship contenders in the HCAC & USAC.
	Riley's take: No. 2 St. John's at No. 20 Bethel. This is the one other Top 25 matchup in Week 4, but more than that, this is one of the best rivalries in D-III football. If I had to slot the top five rivalries in D-III, this would be a shoo-in for one of those spots. These opponents played twice last season, once in the regular season, and once in the MIAC championship. The MIAC championship was contested at Bethel, and SJU won, 29-28. I expect it to be just as close this time, because, although Bethel comes off of a surprising loss to UW-Platteville, the Royals will be at home, which is a major advantage in this sort of contest. Both teams have had two full weeks to prepare for this one, meaning the scouting report has been more detailed, and rehearsed that much more. Will Bethel be the team to hand the Johnnies their first loss of 2022?

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 23 Albion. I believe the Britons are very good, but anytime you travel into WIAC territory, you're going to get tested. The Blugolds nearly pulled off a win at Sprankle-Sprandel Stadium in 2021, and a win on home turf this weekend against the MIAA favorite wouldn't be a total shock.
	Pat's take: None is sometimes the right answer, but really difficult to actually get right. Rather than go "none" for a second week in a row, I'll give John Carroll a shot against No. 19 Heidelberg.
	Ryan's take: No. 21 Susquehanna. An interesting counterbalance is at play here, because where one succeeds the most offensively (Susquehanna in the pass; Dickinson in the run), that's also their opposing defense's strong suit. So much will depend on other factors, like breaking a big play, special teams, and turnovers.
	Frank's take: None. I just don't see it happening this week. (Note: I don't usually assume ranked vs. ranked within five spots is an upset for these purposes.)
	Logan's take: Going purely with my model's projections, it's UMHB against Hardin-Simmons, in nearly a pick-em game. If I only look at games against unranked teams, it's a tossup between Albion vs. UW-EC and Heidelberg vs. John Carroll, both of which have a 25% chance to be upset.
	Riley's take: No. 19 Heidelberg. John Carroll may have lost its season opener to Washington & Jefferson, but after a bye week, JCU returned to the field refreshed, and looked strong in all three phases in a 21-7 Cuyahoga Gold Bowl victory over Baldwin Wallace. I don't think Heidelberg has faced an opponent of JCU's caliber yet this season, and its defense has struggled at times against the pass. I know it won't be easy, but if JCU QB Joe Collins is able to find success through the air and throw for at least 250 yards, I'll take the Blue Streaks to pull out the win.

Pick one of the 37 0-3 teams to win in Week 4. 

	Greg's take: I'll take the 0-3 Alfred Saxons to break into the win column against 3-0 Kalamazoo. Ugly results against Hobart and Ithaca notwithstanding, Alfred played a competitive game against HCAC frontrunner Mount St. Joseph, which seems a better barometer for how they'll fare against the Hornets.
	Pat's take: Maryville. The Scots have had some character-building losses and should be able to take out those frustrations on Greensboro.
	Ryan's take: Albright. The Lions bounced between quarterbacks the first three games, and having some consistency and confidence there will certainly boost their chances against Lycoming.
	Frank's take: Redlands (vs. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps). Let me say it loud and clear: Redlands will not be starting 0-4. The Stags appear inconsistent so far this season, and this is the Bulldogs' chance to finally get off the schneid.
	Logan's take: Since I was chided for taking an easy pick on a question like this before, I'm NOT going to say Maryville (vs. Greensboro), and instead I'm going to go with Redlands bouncing back against CMS. The bulldogs have a couple nail-biting losses, and their defense held their ground against Linfield last week. I think they make a statement against the Stags.
	Riley's take: Maryville (Tenn.). The Scots are eager to get in the win column after a challenging non-conference slate of Berry and Centre yielded a pair of losses, neither of which had a margin greater than 10 points. Shenandoah beat them in the USAC opener last weekend, but even on the road, I don't think Greensboro can contend with Maryville's passing game, which should result in a win for the Scots.

Which game are you following that no one else on the panel is following?

	Greg's take: Stevenson at Widener. In the ongoing search to find a true challenger to Delaware Valley in the MAC, Stevenson has emerged early in 2022 as a contender. The Mustangs are off to a 3-0 start, with an impressive win over NJAC favorite Salisbury. I'll be watching this one to see if Stevenson can keep their focus on the road, one week ahead of their showdown with the Aggies.
	Pat's take: Defiance at Alfred State. For the Yellow Jackets, who served as sacrificial lamb to Mount Union in a year where most of the top-ranked teams in D-III chose a stiffer challenge, this should be a chance to get Bill Nickell his first win as the program's head coach. He's Defiance's fifth coach in seven seasons.
	Ryan's take: Wooster at DePauw. I've got DePauw on my Top 25 ballot, but realistically, they're undefeated against teams that are a combined 0-9. Wooster is far from a powerhouse, but they should challenge the Tigers more than most so far this season.
	Frank's take: Utica at No. 25 Union. Here are two teams that folks think can make some noise in their respective conferences. Utica has had close games and seems to be playing to the level of their opponents. Union's defense against Springfield was strong, but the offense was inconsistent. This is a huge final test before both teams entire their conference schedules.
	Logan's take: Benedictine vs. Eureka. Eureka's probably not in a position to earn the NACC's Pool A bid this year, with Aurora, Benedictine, and St. Norbert looking like the teams to beat, but a win against Benedictine could setup a nice tie-breaker for selection to the inaugural Cousin's Subs Lakefront Bowl.
	Riley's take: Nebraska Wesleyan at Loras. Loras is 1-0 in ARC action, coming off perhaps the biggest upset in the conference's recent history. Last Saturday, Loras pulled off an incredible comeback, putting 17 points on the board in just over five minutes to down No. 12 Central, 38-35. How the Duhawks use that victory moving forward is what I'm interested in. After dropping its first two games of the season, Loras did not appear to be an ARC title contender. But here we are. with a path to that monumental achievement now visible. NBU will not be a particularly easy opponent, and despite last week's win for Loras, I see this game being decided in the fourth quarter.

Which team that lost by double digits last week, will win by double digits this week?

	Greg's take: In trying to find the largest possible point swing this week, I'm settling on Southwestern to rally from their 54-point defeat to UMHB last week and beat McMurry at home by multiple scores.
	Pat's take: Chapman, which fell 38-28 at George Fox last week, will defeat La Verne by a larger margin than that.
	Ryan's take: Springfield. Coming off a big loss against a now-ranked Union team, I fully expect the Pride to bring their record to .500 against Husson.
	Frank's take: Williams (vs. Bowdoin). While Bowdoin cruised to victory last week, Williams did not. The Ephs under Mark Raymond have lost two straight only twice since 2017 (both in 2018). Williams will rebound at home and regain some footing in the NESCAC.
	Logan's take: Buena Vista barely qualifies, losing 14-3 to Coe last week, but they play Luther on Saturday, and beating the Norse by double-digits is pretty much a given at this point.
	Riley's take: Texas Lutheran. The Bulldogs still haven't won a game, and come off of a 52-14 loss to Trinity (Texas), but I think that will change by Saturday night. TLU hosts an improved Sul Ross State squad, but the Bulldog offense is led by QB Seth Cosme, who completed 17 of 22 passes against an exceptional Trinity defense a week ago. If the defense steps up, I don't think TLU will have any trouble widening the margin to double digits early on.

Predict a winner and the most outstanding player in Saturday’s Altercation in Abilene.

	Greg's take: It's just so hard to pick against UMHB. The Cru are about six inches away from being unquestionably the best team in the Division and I expect that they'll play that way on Saturday. This is not (yet) the same kind of suffocating defense that we see from the Cru so often, so they will have to get offensive to win. I think the most outstanding player for the Cru has to be Kyle King- distributing the ball to his talented receivers, breaking down a defense with a big third down scramble, or maybe even pinning the Cowboys deep with a punt (yeah, he does that, too). Whatever the. Cru do on Saturday, King is going to be in the middle of it.
	Pat's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor and Kyle King, quarterback. This is one where the Top 25 probably favors Hardin-Simmons, which is lower-ranked, but playing at home. However, I still see UMHB coming out on top.
	Ryan's take: UMHB, and the standout will be Cru linebacker and the team's leading tackler Johnny Smith-Rider. His role in shutting down the HSU run is going to be a vital piece in the win.
	Frank's take: Hardin-Simmons; RB Gatlin Martin. It's been 21 years since Hardin-Simmons won out vs. UMHB in any season since the two times they've won (2004 and 2015) were both offset by playoff losses to the CRU. Barring a playoff rematch, this is the year the Cowboys break through. The CRU defense is a problem right now for a team that needs consistency, giving up over 300 yards in every 2022 game. They also are not helping get the ball into the hands of their offense enough (51 plays in Week 2; 50 in Week 3). Sure, fast scores mean less plays, but UMHB's defense historically forces the balance to be better. HSU might not have looked great statistically last week, but they can keep this game close, and wear down the CRU defense to win at home.
	Logan's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor will win, and KJ Miller is going to be the reason why. HSU can kick their punts out of bounds to avoid a big return, but the Cru have too many other weapons on offense for the Cowboys to completely take him away on offense. In what will be a close game, big plays will make the difference, and big plays are KJ Miller's forte.
	Riley's take: I'm taking UMHB to win it, but not by more than a touchdown. I expect this to be close, especially with HSU at home, but as Crusaders head coach Larry Harmon has pointed out, this will not be UMHB's first time experiencing a hostile road environment. They'll need to stop the HSU rushing attack in a big way if they expect to win, which will be an interesting matchup to keep an eye on, considering HSU averages more rushing yards per game (276.5) than passing yards (238.0). My most outstanding player will be UMHB linebacker Johnny Smith-Rider. Though I believe the offense will be critical in UMHB's performance, the matchup I mentioned above could easily decide the outcome, especially if HSU's offense opts to run the clock and keep the Crusader offense off the field. Smith-Rider continues to have big performances week after week, and has become an integral part of the defense. His ability to come up with tackles for loss should prove important in the latter stages of this contest.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!