/notables/2022/09/quick-hits-week3

Quick Hits: Our predictions for Week 3

Baldwin Wallace and John Carroll played their rivalry game in Week 11 last season, but this year, the Cuyahoga Gold Bowl is on the line in Week 3.
John Carroll athletics photo
 

Some weeks the game(s) of the week are obvious, and some weeks one panelist's Game of the Week is another panelist's game that they don't think is getting a lot of attention. Welcome to Week 3! We don't have the blockbuster games that Week 2 provided but we do have another crucial ASC vs. WIAC game, some big conference rivalry games, and we're almost certainly going to see a long losing streak snapped. Our Quick Hits panel is here once again to spotlight the week's upoming action around Division III. 

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: No 6 Hardin-Simmons at No. 24 UW-Platteville. I was among those that were critical of the Cowboys' 2021 schedule, so it would be unseemly to not take notice when they sign up to travel to Platteville. I'm not among those currently voting for the Pioneers in the Top 25, but a strong performance this week could validate last week's upset over Bethel. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Hope at Mount St. Joseph. While I'd love to see more of the top teams in the MIAA take on teams in the WIAC or CCIW, like Albion will with UW-Eau Claire next week, this is another in a series of games between the contenders in the MIAA and those in the HCAC. It should also be an entertaining one, based on the games these teams have played so far.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: No. 18 Muhlenberg at Ursinus. I'm going a bit off script here by including an unranked team (despite there being a Top 25 game), but the Bears played JHU close last week, and Muhlenberg has some early-season vulnerabilities that could spice up the Centennial this fall. 
Frank's take: Grove City at No. 20 Carnegie Mellon. The PAC could easily be a five-way race, and this game will begin the process of seeing who the last team standing will be. In what is a Week 3 lacking several headline games, this is one of the most important games on the slate.
Logan's take: I'm going with No. 6 Hardin-Simmons @ No. 24 UW-Platteville. It's hard to know what to make of UWP, a team known for its passing offense who just promoted their OC to HC, himself a former UWP QB, but they burst into the Top 25 on the back of a dominant defensive performance against Bethel, forcing as many punts & fumbles as they allowed completions. HSU doesn't have an injury at QB, so this will be a bigger challenge than Bethel, but maybe not as difficult as D-II Michigan Tech was in Week 1.
Riley's take: No. 6 Hardin-Simmons at No. 24 UW-Platteville. This is the only matchup between two Top 25 programs this week, and it should be interesting, for a number of reasons. HSU is undoubtedly talented, but still does not have its first win over a D-III opponent, having easily defeated NAIA program Wayland Baptist in Week 1. Meanwhile, Platteville comes off of an upset of Bethel and will be at home for the second straight week. How the Cowboys handle the long road trip will be a factor, and both programs are looking for a playoff resume-building win, coming from conferences in which they are not currently the highest-ranked Top 25 program. Defense will be a critical factor in this one.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: No. 20 Carnegie Mellon. If there was ever a week to pick none, this feels like it- but I would never! This looks like the most competitive game in the Top 25 this week. Grove City has overwhelmed two overmatched opponents, while the Tartans have sratched out a pair of wins over solid teams. We don't know the status this week for Tartan RB Tre Vasiliadis, who left last week's game against RPI early and did not return. If he isn't able to go this week, this game feels much more like a toss up.  
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: None. I see a couple of possibles, but nothing likely.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: No. 15 Delaware Valley. King's has a good combination of seasoned veterans at quarterback and on defense as well as some younger guys who made a solid impact already in the opener. I think the Aggies will get a lot to handle this weekend.
Frank's take: No. 22 Heidelberg (vs. Ohio Northern). The strongest teams beyond Mount Union in the OAC have done a fair job of underwhelming in the early part of the season, with Ohio Northern’s loss to Alma being part of that. In what is truly a survival game for ONU, they will come out swinging and make this game interesting.
Logan's take: Only one Top 25 team plays an unranked opponent and is favored by less than 2 TDs per my projections, and they're one of the newest teams in the poll. No. 20 Carnegie Mellon has a 63% chance of winning against Grove City. CMU challenged themselves with their non-conference slate against Whitworth & RPI, while Grove City has rolled over Juniata & Geneva.
Riley's take: I think UW-Platteville has a great shot to win against Hardin-Simmons, but whether that would be an upset or not is up to question. However, Grove City's matchup at No. 20 Carnegie Mellon also intrigues me. CMU's defense was exceptional a week ago against RPI, but will face a different kind of offense in GCC. Grove City needs to score early, something RPI was unable to do, in order to stay in this one. If the Wolverines do, I like their chances, as their offense has been in sync through dominant wins over Juniata and Geneva, scoring 55+ points in both games. If they have even half of that kind of offensive success against a stingy CMU defensive front, and force CMU to match their scoring, this could be an upset in the making.

Which team snaps the longest losing streak this week?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: Keystone was tempting here and I do believe the Giants are going to notch their first win this year, but probably not this week. The correct play here is going to St. Scholastica or UW-Stevens Point. Both should snap ten gamers on Saturday. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Two teams do, I think: St. Scholastica and UW-Stevens Point each have lost 10 in a row and I see Scholastica as a heavy favorite against  Crown, and UW-Stevens Point as a slight favorite at home against Simpson.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Gonna pick two, just because: UW-Stevens Point, which should have a big advantage over Simpson; and St. Scholastica, which can edge out a close one against Crown. Both the Pointers and the Saints happen to be on 10-game skids right now.
Frank's take: ’m going to stick my neck out for the longest D3 losing streak being snapped by Thiel. The Tomcats winning would continue the narrative of a crazy 2022 season, and St. Vincent, while facing better opponents than Thiel, have not looked tremendous either.
Logan's take: St. Scholastica (10 games). Once the team to beat in the UMAC, the Saints started sliding even before they joined the MIAC. Playing a former conference foe this week, Crown, I actually have them as five-point favorites. Nobody with a longer streak has a better than 6% chance to win.
Riley's take: UW-Stevens Point. Hosting a Simpson College team that struggled last Saturday against Waldorf and is on the road for the second straight week, the Pointers have a legitimate chance to snap the 10-game losing skid. If RB Reed Smith finds traction early, and the defense generates a stop or two coming out of halftime, UW-Stevens Point is likely to come away with a much-needed victory.

 

Which game are you following that no one else on the panel is following?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: Claremont-Mudd-Scripps at Whitworth. The SCIAC looks wide open, so I'm interested to see how the Stags fare against a Whitworth team that caught fire last week against NAIA's Eastern Oregon University. Expect a big workload for C-M-S running back Justin Edwards, who should be fresh for this trip to the Pine Bowl. Edwards carried just 17 times last week against Whittier- light work for Edwards and the Stags' run heavy offense. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Guessing because of the previous question we'll get some people following St. Scholastica-Crown, but I'll also be keeping an eye on Brockport at Rochester. Brockport's number of rushing yards allowed isn't as eye-poppingly small as it was a few years ago, but this is still the most stout defense that Rochester running back Daniel Papantonis has faced. He's averaging 293.5 yards per game and 12.2 yards per carry and those averages will go down, for sure -- just remains to be seen by how much.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Ah, the panel question that has lost all meaning. I'm interested to see how the top half (or even top third) of the PAC shapes out this weekend after Washington & Jefferson visits Case Western Reserve.
Frank's take: Union at Springfield. A lot of Union alumni were celebrating Union’s 76-7 win vs. Worcester St. last week, but Springfield is, by far, the Dutchmen’s toughest opponent thus far in 2022. Springfield comes off a close game vs. Rowan (let’s go to the video tablet?). They need a rebound game, so I’m excited to attend this one.
Logan's take: No. 18 Muhlenberg at Ursinus. The Mules have drastically underperformed their expectations in each of their first two games, and if they make it 3 in a row, they could lose to the Bears for the second straight season. I still have them pegged as a healthy 18-point favorite, but crazier things have happened.
Riley's take: Chapman at George Fox. This is a late one, with a 10 p.m. EDT kickoff from Newberg. But you'll want to stay up for football after midnight, as this pits two 2-0 programs against each other. George Fox has never started 3-0 since the program was restarted in 2014, and the Bruins are at home for the first time in 2022, meaning history could be made. Chapman looked sharp in wins over Pacific and Cal Lutheran, and will not go down easy. Regardless of who wins, I see this game being decided by single digits.

 

Rivalry Week in the OAC! Pick the winners of the Bendo Bowl and the Cuyahoga Gold Bowl.

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: I like Heidelberg to collect their second trophy in as many weeks (the Student Princes captured the Rhine River Cup at Otterbein last week). Becasue rivalry games simply can't all go according to plan, I'll take Baldwin Wallace to sting John Carroll and avenge last year's 29-28 loss in the regular season finale- a game that Baldwin Wallace led 28-10 with 12 minutes left to play. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Heidelberg and John Carroll. I'm giving strong consideration to Baldwin Wallace by benefit of having a second game under its belt but man, the Jackets need offense from somewhere other than Jon Murray Jr. and linebacker Zack Zoul, whose pick-six was BW's first touchdown last week against Wilmington.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Heidelberg, they're rolling this season so far. And John Carroll, which is mostly because BW has been struggling so much right out of the gate.
Frank's take: Ohio Northern in the Bendo Bowl (see above). John Carroll should win the Cuyahoga Gold Bowl after Baldwin Wallace has really struggled against teams they should have dominated in their first two weeks this season.
Logan's take: Heidelberg (3 TD favorite) & JCU (3 point favorite).
Riley's take: In the Bendo Bowl, Heidelberg is the obvious favorite, and based on the performance of the defense in weeks one and two gives me confidence they'll be moved to 3-0 after Saturday's contest. In the Cuyahoga Gold Bowl, I'll take John Carroll, though I expect this to be decided by seven points or fewer. JCU has had a full two weeks to prepare after the 35-26 loss to Washington & Jefferson, and is playing at home for the first time in 2022. JCU will need to cut down on its turnover numbers, and if that objective is accomplished, the Blue Streaks should be able to generate more than enough offense to come away with a victory.

 

Which team surprisingly falls to 0-3?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: Rose-Hulman. The Fighting Engineers have surrendered second half leads in both of their games to open this season. Fellow 2021 playoff partiipant Albion makes the trip to Terre Haute this weekend and the Britons are on fire offensively in 2022. RHIT's competition has been good in 2022- I wouldn't have necessarily expected them to win alll three games to open this season, but I did expect the preseason HCAC favorite to win at least one. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: To be listed in this category, I figure it has to be surprising that you are already 0-2, and then also surprising to lose on Saturday. To me, that eliminates Redlands, because 0-2 might be a surprise but losing at Linfield is not. I think that logic is going to lead me to Franklin, which is 0-2 after starting the season at Olivet and Aurora and faces Trine on Saturday in its home opener. Certainly the Trine that played in the second half against Rose-Hulman would win this game.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Rose-Hulman. We knew they were going to drop off a bit after last year's playoff run, but two close losses to start the season and now lining up against an Albion team that has outscored opponents 103-2 so far doesn't bode well for the Engineers.
Frank's take: Dubuque (vs. Nebraska Wesleyan). I (and others) thought Dubuque might have a chance to compete for the ARC crown this season, but the Spartans just haven’t answered the bell yet. On the road this week, and 0-3 start is not out of the question.
Logan's take: Rose-Hulman. The Engineers are surprisingly 0-2, with two close losses by a combined 4 points. This should be another close one, and I'm sure they're hoping their luck will turn. Their opponent Albion isn't a surprising 2-0 right now, but the surprising part is how dominant they've been. They've outscored opponents 103-2, with their only points allowed coming on a safety well after their starters were out of the game.
Riley's take: Redlands. The Bulldogs opened the season just outside of the Top 25 poll, having received 49 points in the preseason ranking. The good news is that Redlands has an incredible SOS, but on the same token, they've been unable to pull out victories against both George Fox and Pomona-Pitzer, losing by a combined eight points. This Saturday's contest against Linfield will be close, but I see Linfield's passing attack paving the way to a win as the second half unfolds, dropping Redlands to 0-3.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!

Dec. 15: All times Eastern
Final
Cortland 38, at North Central (Ill.) 37
@ Salem, Virginia
Video Box Score Recap Photos
Dec. 9: All times Eastern
Final
North Central (Ill.) 34, at Wartburg 27
Box Score Recap
Final
Cortland 49, at Randolph-Macon 14
Box Score Recap Recap Recap Photos
Maintenance in progress.