/notables/2022/09/quick-hits-week2

Quick Hits: Our predictions for Week 2

Wheaton takes the field for the first time this season, as a team with a number of new players goes down to San Antonio to defend its No. 8 ranking.
d3photography.com file photo
 

It's only Week 2, and one of the Division's top title contenders has its back against the wall — with the defending champs coming to town. That's how thin the margins are in Division III. As if that's not enough, we'll get another Top 10 matchup, and yet one more matchup between Top 25 teams. Rivalry trophies are on the line, and Hilbert College takes the field for the very first time. There's a lot to look forward to this weekend and our Quick Hits panel has assembled again to put a spotlight on the games that highlight that packed schedule. 

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: No. 1 UMHB at No. 6 UW-Whitewater. We normally have to wait until the national semifinals to see these two clash, so yeah, this game is a big deal. These two last played in front of about 2600 fans in Perkins Stadium last December. Those 2600 might bring about 10,000 of their best friends this weekend to get behind a decidedly underdog Warhawk team. With the rocket-fueled offense that UMHB will bring to the Perk this weekend, Whitewater's ability to pound the rock may have seldom been more important than it will be tomorrow.
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: No. 8 Wheaton (Ill.) at No. 9 Trinity (Texas). Not just to be contrary — I suspect it will be a closer and better contested game between a midwest power and a program from Texas. I'm also eager to see both Wheaton step up its non-conference schedule from Northwestern (Minn.) and Trinity step up from Macalester.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: No. 8 Wheaton at No. 9 Trinity. The Tigers are coming off a dominating Week 1 win, while the Thunder have yet to take the field this fall. This Top 10 matchup is deserving of a lot of attention on Saturday.
Frank Rossi head shot Frank's take: No. 1 Mary Hardin-Baylor at No. 6 UW-Whitewater. C’mon, there’s no getting around this one. I said it to multiple people in Belton last Saturday — the Warhawks match up better against the CRU than Muhlenberg because they have the defensive depth to at least nullify some aspects of the CRU offense. This will be a 13-7 type of game, I believe.
Logan's take: In lieu of picking a UWW game for the second straight week, I'm going to go with No. 9 Trinity vs. No. 8 Wheaton. Trinity showed last week that their outstanding 2021 was no fluke, flashing the same explosive passing offense and stellar defense that won the SAA in 2021. Meanwhile, the Thunder have been comfortably among the Top 10 teams in the country since 2019, but a lot of the players who formed that core are gone, and they're playing their first game this week.
Riley's take: No. 1 UMHB at No. 6 UW-Whitewater. Entering the year, this was one of the most anticipated non-conference games of the season. Though Whitewater dropped two spots in the Top 25 after its loss to St. John's, and UMHB cruised against a very good Muhlenberg team, there is no doubt that this will be an exceptional matchup. The Warhawks are at home, playing in front of what is expected to be a large crowd, while UMHB ventures on the road for the first time in 2022. The Cru convincingly won here less than a year ago in the national semifinals, but can UMHB do something it has never done before, and win consecutive meetings with UW-Whitewater? We shall see.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: No. 11 Bethel. On the road to UW-Platteville, the Royals are going to see a significantly differnet caliber of opponent than they hosted in Week 1. Star quarterback Jaran Roste left Bethel's game last week after just four plays. If Roste's avaialbilty is compromised, the Royals will have their work cut out for them. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: No. 22 RPI. It's a game which would not be an upset on my ballot, but I favor Carnegie Mellon, even on the road.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: No. 11 Bethel. It's hard to know what to make of UW-Platteville after a loss to a Division II team, but where the Pioneers may lack for offense, they make up for it in a stout senior-laden defense.
Frank Rossi head shot Frank's take: No. 4 St. John’s (vs. No. 19 UW-River Falls). I’m going for a flyer here, but the high of beating Whitewater might have the focus of SJU off a bit this week. River Falls looked really good in Week 1, and they have more weapons than I anticipated. I’m going to take a risk here and call for the upset.
Logan's take: My model has No. 8 Wheaton a one-point underdog to No. 9 Trinity on the road, while No. 16 Ithaca (Brockport) and No. 11 Bethel (UW-Platteville) are both only 1-score favorites, but the most likely upset per the model (and my gut) is No. 22 RPI against RV Carnegie Mellon. CMU had one of the most impressive performances in the country against Whitworth last week, while RPI struggled offensively against Dickinson.
Riley's take: No. 22 RPI. Carnegie Mellon has won its last five games against ranked opponents, and is looking to make it six on Saturday. Though RPI is at home, the Engineers were not sharp offensively against Dickinson in week one, converting just 20 percent of their third downs, and posted just 255 yards of total offense. The defense is solid for RPI, but it may meet its match in the CMU offense. CMU quarterback Ben Mills has a duo of reliable receivers in Kris Hughes and Ben Condemi to anchor the passing attack. And if it becomes a defensive battle, the Tartan defense has already proven it can defend the run, holding Whitworth to -3 yards rushing. Either way, CMU seems to have a slight advantage, even playing on RPI's home turf.

Which conference wins more games this weekend - NJAC or MIAA?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: Winners that I'm comfortable with- Abion, Olivet, and Alma from the MIAA and Rowan, Salisbury, and Christopher Newport from the NJAC. Of the remaining games that I could see going either way, the MIAA has better matchups, and all but Trine are at home. I'll go with the MIAA, but I think it's going to be by just one game. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: In my first run through the games, I ended up with four MIAA winners and two for the NJAC so that seems like a pick for the MIAA.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: The MIAA, but they won't win as many as they did in Week 1.
Frank Rossi head shot Frank's take: The MIAA. I have 2 for the NJAC (CNU & Salisbury), but 4 for the MIAA (Albion, Hope, Kalamazoo, and Trine). Realistically, the MIAA could win more than that, but even conservatively, I think it’s their weekend.
Logan's take:  MIAA, easily. My model's predictions:
MIAA = 4.9 wins; 3 heavy favorites (Albion, Olivet, Alma), 3 tossups (Hope, Adrian, K'zoo), 1 slight underdog (Trine)
NJAC = 2.5 wins; 2 moderate favorites (Salisbury, CNU), 3 moderate underdogs (Rowan, Kean, Willy Pete), and 2 big underdogs (Montclair, TCNJ)
Riley's take: MIAA. Both conferences saw their 7 teams go a combined 6-1 in week one. And I see the MIAA repeating that mark this weekend, with several favorable matchups on tap.

 Which game are you following that no one else on the panel is following?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: No. 2 North Central at Wabash. The 2021 runners up open their season at Wabash on Saturday. The Little Giants got a slim majority of the 100 point scored in last week's game vs. Hamdpen-Sydney and will face an even bigger challenge tomorrow. Come for highlights of the classic 2011 second round matchup between these two teams, stay for the offensive star power that will be on display. North Central's Ethan Greenfield may be the best running back in the division, while starting quarteracks Luke Lehnen (North Central) and Liam Thompson (Wabash) are two of the most exciting dual-threat signal callers you'll see this season. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Aurora vs. Franklin. This seems like a really fun game that should have a lot of offense, and I like really fun games that have a lot of offense. 
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Coe at Hope. The Kohawks are a bit of a sleeper pick for me in the ARC, so I'm interested in seeing how they fare against some stepped-up competition.
Frank Rossi head shot Frank's take: Endicott at WPI. I attended this game last year, and a COVID-laden WPI team had a large lead disappear late, with the Gulls taking the W. This year, in Worcester, could be different. I wouldn’t be surprised if we have a game go down to the last possession.
Logan's take: I'm not the only person who has either of these teams on my Top 25 ballot, but I'll be at the Wartburg vs. UW-Stout game Saturday night. I'm excited to see how Wartburg's secondary - including at least one panelist's pick for Defensive Player of the Year, Antonio Santillan - holds up against UW-Stout's passing attack, which features the WIAC's most productive passer by yards above replacement, and a Preseason All-American at WR.
Riley's take: Trine at Rose-Hulman. The 2021 version of this matchup was decided by a single point, and it just might be that close again. Trine is an improved squad in 2022, and displayed that in last week's 38-0 shutout of Anderson. Rose-Hulman meanwhile, dropped its season opener by three points to DePauw, and is looking to get back on the winning end in its home opener. The battle between Trine's defense and Rose-Hulman's offense, which includes eight returning offensive starters, will make this one of the closest games of the week.

 Who will be the most surprising 2-0 team?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: George Fox. The Bruins won their first season opening game since the revival of their program in 2014 by winning at Redlands 38-31 in Week 1. Winning at Ted Runner Stadium is impressive and tells me that the Bruins are a veteran team that can manage the disruption to routine that long travel can bring. This week, the Bruins are on the road again, this time to take on a high-powered Howard Payne offense. A win here by the Bruins may solidify their position as the Northwest Conference's top challenger to Linfield. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Trine. Not that Week 1 was a big surprise but I think a win at Rose-Hulman would definitely qualify.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Kenyon. They've only been 2-0 twice in the past couple of decades. They should be able to make it a third time against Kalamazoo.
Frank Rossi head shot Frank's take: FDU-Florham. The Devils were considered a middling MAC team in their in-conference poll, but they have a chance to start at 2-0 in their non-conference schedule under new head coach Anthony Van Curen. With a quarterback in TJ Brown that can be extremely efficient and a defense with plenty of fifth-year starters, this team could start and stay hot.
Logan's take: FDU-Florham. My model's biggest miss from Week 1 was the Devil's upset win over USMMA, stifling the Mariner's option rushing attack, and holding them to 45 points below my projections. They'll have another competitive game this weekend against William Paterson, but if they don't beat themselves, they should be 2-0.
Riley's take: FDU-Florham. FDU-Florham has not begun a season 2-0 since 2018, but perhaps 2022 is the year. Coming off the win over USMMA last Friday, the Devils have had an extra day to prepare for Friday's duel with William Paterson and will beat WPU in consecutive seasons for the first time in program history behind the quarterback play of TJ Brown and a stringent rushing defense.

 Which 0-1 team will be most impressive in Week 2?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: Playing Friday night, on a short week, I like SUNY-Maritime to bounce back from a tough loss to Hartwick and win The Chowder Bowl when Massachussetts Maritime visits Throggs Neck. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Most of my first thoughts are about teams that are facing someone super beatable so instead I will take Maryville (Tenn.) at Centre. Maryville was one stop away from taking Berry to overtime in Week 1.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: No. 18 Muhlenberg. Dickinson won't be a pushover, but the Mules will be eager to get the aroma of their loss in Texas off of them quickly.
Frank Rossi head shot Frank's take: No. 18 Muhlenberg. We saw some positive aspects to Muhlenberg’s offense throughout the night vs. the CRU Saturday, with the Mules piling up 389 yards of offense against a top-rated defense in Belton. The real Mules will come forward and dominate this Saturday vs. Dickinson.
Logan's take: Westminster (Pa.). The Titans only managed 8 points against Del Val, but I would expect considerably more than 8 points from their offense this week against Bethany (and probably less than 8 points allowed by their defense), starting their conference schedule on a high note.
Riley's take: Huntingdon. The Hawks nearly upset No. 7 Linfield at home last week, but were unable to close the seven-point gap in the fourth quarter. Huntingdon has an excellent chance for another marquee non-conference victory, facing Birmingham-Southern on the road. If they can put together a better defensive effort and maintain the same kind of passing game displayed against Linfield, Huntingdon has an excellent chance to leave Birmingham with its first win of the season.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!

Dec. 15: All times Eastern
Final
Cortland 38, at North Central (Ill.) 37
@ Salem, Virginia
Video Box Score Recap Photos
Dec. 9: All times Eastern
Final
North Central (Ill.) 34, at Wartburg 27
Box Score Recap
Final
Cortland 49, at Randolph-Macon 14
Box Score Recap Recap Recap Photos
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