Quick Hits: Our predictions for Stagg Bowl XLVIII

Dec 17, 2021

d3photography.com photos

All roads have led to Canton, Ohio where the North Central Cardinals are set to defend their 2019 championship agianst Mary Hardin-Baylor. As is Quick Hits tradition, our predictions take on a little longer form and we bring in some extra expertise to give their takes and predictions for the national championship game. The Quick Hits team has been making these predictions ever since 1999, when our panel correctly picked what everyone in Division III thought was an upset — Pacific Lutheran over Rowan. In 2019, the panel correctly picked North Central in a 6-4 decision over UW-Whitewater.

Nobody consulted with one another. Feel free to add your pick and reasoning in the comments section below.

— Greg Thomas

Pat Coleman, D3football.com publisher and executive editor

My initial focus on this game is entirely about the health of North Central quarterback Luke Lehnen. OK, it's not quite like that, but it's pretty close. This question is so much on everyone's minds that we were approached unsolicited in the hotel lobby on Thursday night by a North Central player's mom who swore to us that, "Luke is fine." That might be well and true, but we won't know for sure until he has Khevon Shepard or E'Monte Smith bearing down on him, or until Ethan Greenfield gets stopped and the Cardinals face a third-and-long. After all, that could happen -- it happened like once at Mount Union. On the other side, what happens if Mary Hardin-Baylor needs a key field goal and can't rely on something that used to be a near-automatic for them? I've seen North Central in person twice this year against top five teams and the thing I saw both times was an opponent marching down the field on the first drive. And not really doing so again, or at least not for a long time. Nobody will panic on the Cardinals side if UMHB scores first. So the questions will be whether NCC can make it harder for Brandon Jordan to do his thing, or if UMHB can do the same to Greenfield. My suspicion is that yes, this will happen, and it'll happen a few times, but there will be enough offense to make this interesting.

North Central 21, Mary Hardin-Baylor 16.

Keith McMillan, editor emeritus and originator of Around The Nation

Since the 2019 Stagg Bowl ended, I've been convinced North Central was going to run it back. The Cardinals have been proving that the first championship was more than just having a once-in-a-generation quarterback; they're loaded at every position and have a top-notch program from the coach on down. Right up until I watched the first half of Mary Hardin-Baylor vs. UW-Whitewater, I was all in for the year-delayed NCC repeat. But Kyle King-to-Brandon Jordan is a game-changer, and watching UMHB WRs catch passes with Warhawks DBs draped on them makes me wonder how the heck the Cardinals are going to stop them. Ball skills would be a start; DBs should go up and get it. With Jordan at 6-6, it might not matter, but 6-3 CB Jake Beesley is as good as they come, and was largely responsible for holding Wayne Ruby Jr. to four catches for 59 yards in the semifinal win. So let's say King and Jordan have their moments but don't dominate. What then is the path for North Central to win? We can't assume Ethan Greenfield and the NCC running game run roughshod, not after the UMHB defense held UW-Whitewater and Alex Peete to 43 yards on 20 carries. We know UMHB is comfortable in its 4-2-5 playing zone, and keeping everything in front so they can come up and tackle. The Cardinals have to figure out how to get all-everything WR Andrew Kamienski more than the one catch for 6 yards he had last week, and same for fellow WR DeAngelo Hardy (5 touches, 34 yards). Some intermediate passes completed early will slow the UMHB safeties down in run support. NCC, which has had two turnovers in three playoff wins, must also stay mistake free. UMHB got a little sloppy but caught some big breaks in last week's second half, suggesting it didn't dominate UW-Whitewater as much as the 24-7 score suggested. But it still went into the cold with a team that doesn't have many weaknesses, and pushed around a team that's been pushing everyone else around. It might not be pretty, but if Jordan plays half as well as he did last week, UMHB may do that again, and eke it out.

Mary Hardin-Baylor 21, North Central 19.

Adam Turer, Around the Nation columnist emeritus

Prediction number one: the Most Outstanding Player of Stagg Bowl XLVIII is going to be a lineman.

Prediction number two: if Mary Hardin-Baylor is going to pull the upset, that player is going to have to be a defensive lineman for the Crusaders.

Prediction number three: a Cardinals offensive lineman, likely Sharmore Clarke but maybe Jarod Thornton, is going to earn my MOP vote.

North Central's offensive line is one of the most skilled and experienced units we've seen at this level. The majority of the O-Line made their presence known on the national stage in 2019, leading the Cardinals to the program's first national championship. The fact that those leaders are back and experienced and still playing with a chip on their shoulder could mean a long evening for the Crusaders defense. The Cru rely heavily on their speedy linebackers and talented defensive backs. North Central's dominant ground game is built to neutralize UHMB's defensive strength. Nearly every D-III coach will tell you that recruiting and developing offensive lines is the biggest differentiator between a D-III and D-1 program. With this crop of linemen, the Cardinals have bucked that trend. They've been at the top of my ballot all year, and will remain at the top of my ballot heading into 2022.

North Central 31, UMHB 20

Ryan Tipps, D3football.com Senior Editor

Rain -- a cold rain, at that -- could certainly play a factor in the final score of this game, but whether North Central needs to punch the ball through with the run game or let it fly from quarterback Luke Lehnen, the team is well positioned to defend its national championship status. I like the Cardinals' diversified offense and ability to convert in the red zone, I like that their line can protect the quarterback so well, and that the defense is skilled at stopping the run. North Central is on point when they're forcing their opponent to play from behind, so we should see some wizardry early on. Yet, in many of the ways NCC is strong, so is the Cru -- in the trenches, varied offensive weapons, getting points on the board. One tell-tale mark of the UMBH offense will be if they have an explosive second- or third quarter of the game. Oftentimes, in their toughest games this season, they've started slow, but you can tell there's that point where they figure out their opponent and everything comes together for a dynamic 15 minutes and the Cru take control of the game. We should know a few minutes into the second half whether UMHB has found that explosiveness and can put the Cardinals in a vice.

North Central 24, Mary Hardin-Baylor 21

Frank Rossi, D3football.com Stagg Bowl sideline reporter, Co-host In the (D3FB) Huddle

This is the biggest struggle I've had in about a decade picking this game (and to the team I don't pick, fear not -- my percentage is gawd awful). However, I believed that Wisconsin-Whitewater would win the whole thing this year. So, the only question I ultimately need to answer is: "Did I overestimate Whitewater, or did I underestimate UMHB?"

Realistically, UMHB's season hasn't been picture-perfect. The Hardin-Simmons game was an incredible comeback, but it showed a team lacking consistency. Some games since showed the same inconsistency. However, the CRU have looked tremendous in the Playoffs, especially defensively. And since Kyle King returned from health issues, the offense hasn't missed a beat.

But then, what about North Central - the team that walloped the Warhawks in the 2019 Stagg Bowl? I think the key of this game is what Luke Lehnen's effectveness is or is not -- and after watching him get pretty dinged up as he dove into the endzone Saturday vs. Mount Union, I don't know if he's 100 percent. UMHB will certainly key in on the run, forcing the offense's success onto Lehnen's shoulders. While I've been highly impressed with the freshman's poise all season, I just don't know if he's going to be able to throw as successfully as he needs to if he lacks shoulder mobility.

Long story short, we have two awesome teams here, and someone will walk away the winner -- I give UMHB the slight edge, but I wouldn't be shocked if NCC wins this game.

Mary Hardin-Baylor 28, North Central 24

Greg Thomas, Around The Nation Columnist

Two weeks ago, I was fairly convinced that this was a tournament of one and everybody who wasn’t North Central was playing for second place. Then UMHB unleashed a dimension of offense that we’ve really only seen them deploy against wildly overmatched teams- not elites like Linfield and Whitewater. What I think is clear is that Brandon Jordan is going to make some big plays down the field and there’s not much anybody can do about that. He’s just an uncommon player at this level and he will challenge even North Central’s longer corners. North Central counters with an uncommon player of their own in Ethan Greenfield. Greenfield is about as easy to tackle as a runaway vending machine and the Cardinals are going to lean heavily on Greenfield to control the ball and keep Jordan, Kyle King, and K.J. Miller watching and waiting on the sideline. UMHB’s path to victory relies on getting North Central into 3^rd and long situations without overcommitting to stopping the run. Only Wheaton has had sustained success in that area against NCC in 2021, and eventually even their great defense succumbed. This promises to be a great matchup in a great venue. I’m going to take North Central to repeat as champions in a tough, low scoring game.

North Central 17, UMHB 13

Grant Sabo, North Central alumnus and color analyst for NCTV-17

Mary Hardin-Baylor presents as stout a challenge to North Central as they have seen in the last 2 championship seasons. Offensively, the Cru have two capable running backs and the King to Jordan connection is a sight to behold. Their defensive front seven are at least as good as what NCC saw versus Wheaton in week 2. That said, nobody has been able to halt the Cardinal rushing attack all season, while several teams have had success running the football against the vaunted UMHB front. If the Crusaders sell out to stop the run, freshman NCC QB Luke Lehnen now has an entire season under his belt and an embarrassment of riches when it comes to athletic, veteran receivers. North Central will get their points. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinal defense has allowed over 100 rushing yards only once this season and, as such, I expect results similar to the 64 rushing yards the Crusaders accrued against Whitewater in the semis. Several teams have had moderate success moving the ball through the air against the Cardinals, however. The Jordan versus Beesley battle will be one for the ages. The key to the game hinges on the ability of the Crusader offense sling it more efficiently against the Cardinal secondary than they did against Whitewater since they’ll need more than the 24 points that UWW gave up in order to beat the Cardinals.

North Central 34, Mary Hardin-Baylor 21

Carlos Barba, former North Central center

“Purple powers! Red is the new Purple! UMHB had the hardest path to the Stagg! NCC had the ‘easiest’. Cru shouldn’t have had to play the 1st round opponent they did, the Cards shouldn’t have had to travel to Mount Union.” These are the repeated themes throughout the D3 Football message boards over the last few weeks. The best part is that it will all get settled on the field tonight! The old cliché of the game is won at the line of scrimmage will definitely be a big part of this game but it will be the play of the respective secondaries that will ultimately decide this one. Which team will make big plays on offense? UMHB has the big targets in Jordan and Ruckman and big play potential in Martin and Miller. The NCC secondary of Beesley, Rummel, Cremeens and Lindmark will have their hands full but will be up to the task in this one. How will UMHB contend with Kamienski, Hardy, Williams and Blair? Robinson’s TD last week surely gave them something else to think about. Greenfield will get plenty of carries to try to wear down that Cru front seven and the Cards and Lehnen will take their shots down the field. The Cardinals “Chase the Lion” one more time this season….a big Purple one! Cards battle a great MHB team and pull off the back to back National Championship!

North Central 31, Mary Hardin-Baylor 21

Riley Zayas, Managing Editor, Tru To The Cru

While both teams have found success through the air during this season, and especially in these playoffs, all signs are pointing towards the contest being decided on the ground. North Central, powered behind a standout offensive and running back Ethan Greenfield, has found great success running the ball, averaging 309 yards per game. In the semifinal win at Mount Union, Greenfield alone tallied 190 rushing yards. However, the UMHB defensive front has made its case as the nation’s top rushing defense, which was no more evident than last week. Entering the Crusaders’ semifinal at Wisconsin-Whitewater, Warhawk running back Alex Peete was averaging 107.9 yards per game, but UMHB limited him to just 43 yards on the ground. The ability to stop the run well will likely force North Central to throw, and while the UMHB secondary has shown its flaws, it prides itself on limiting long gains. Defense might be the most important component for both teams in this matchup; we know both can throw it, and run it for that matter,
at a successful rate. The question then becomes who will turn defensive stops into scores, and UMHB gets the nod in that category in my opinion. Each of the Cru’s 24 points at Whitewater came after a defensive stop.

UMHB 27, North Central, 23

Corbin Campitelli, 2017 Mary Hardin-Baylor All-American tackle

Defending champ NCC is coming into the Stagg Bowl with a plethora of skill position talent who have been rolling behind one of the best offensive lines in D3. While Mount Union might be their most recent game, I think the Little Brass Bell game was very telling. UMHB’s defense will be the best NCC has played since Wheaton. While NCC’s star running back, Ethan Greenfield, has run through most teams this year, against Wheaton he only managed 55 yards on 17 carries. Even though their running game was not having success, NCC managed to put up 345 yards in the air, but I do not believe they will be given that much opportunity against the CRU’s team speed and skill on defense.

Flipping to the other side of the ball UMHB has brought out a passing game we are not accustomed to seeing from the CRU. NCC is stout on defense, they will not be content to only rush three or four and will bring multiple blitzers to pressure Kyle King. I see UMHB struggling early with multiple looks but settling down and taking advantage of one-on-one matchups with Brandon Jordan, KJ Miller and others down the field.

Big plays on special teams will once again be huge for the CRU. I’ll look for UMHB to regain its crown atop D-III football.

Mary Hardin-Baylor 27, North Central 13

Got picks? Put them in the comments!