Mount Union and Wayne Ruby were able to haul in another trip to the semifinals, but will the road end just short of Canton? Photo by Doug Sasse, d3photography.com

We're down to the final four and if you've been watching the D3football.com Top 25 all season, you won't be surprised at who is still playing. The Stagg Bowl will make its first appearance in Canton, Ohio, in just one week and our Quick Hits panel has assembled to predict which teams will be playing for the Walnut and Bronze seven days from now. 

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi, plus a guest. We're excited to have Around The Nation originator and longtime Division III guru Keith McMillan joining us on the Quick Hits panel throughout the playoffs. 

— Greg Thomas

 North Central at Mount Union, 12 p.m. EST, ESPN+

Keith's take:  Now that the furor over unnecessarily sending the undefeated defending champions on the road has died down, we can boil this clash down to two things: How the teams match up, and whether each plays its best game on Saturday. Since it'd probably take a C game to beat North Central, the joy of the Purple Raiders playing at home is probably offset by a peeved Cardinals squad likely to bring its A game. Mount Union won't be able to survive a slow start or give its opponent late-game gifts like last week. And the good news is, it shouldn't take long to figure out how these teams match up. In the first 10 minutes, as the initial excitement wears off, ignore the temptation to make this game about the considerable skill-position talent on both teams. This is the part of the postseason where the men, almost literally, separate from the boys. Don't follow the ball. Watch the lines. If Sharmore Clarke and the Cardinals' O-line are pushing around the Purple Raiders' front, that dynamic offense will make it an uncharacteristically long day in Alliance. North Central 42, Mount Union 20.

Ryan's take:   Whether NCC's national championship run is on your mind, or that snowy clash from 2013, Mount and North Central have had some epic battles on the field (at the time of this writing, they're calling for rain on Saturday). We've seen a lot of Greenfield and Petruccelli this season (both are among the best rushers in the country), and I can imagine the teams leaning more on them and their backups depending on how severe the weather gets. The clock will get eaten up a bit more, and maybe tone down the score a bit -- at least as compared to that 111-point game we saw in 2019.  North Central 31, Mount Union 24. 

Pat's take:   In the end, the location of this game won't likely make a difference in the outcome. Right now, North Central is on its way to becoming the machine it says it wants to be. It's not often someone else comes into Alliance with the best running back in the contest, and possibly the best wide receiver, and perhaps the better defense and secondary. The Cardinals are also a team which won't be intimidated by going to Alliance, having won there in 2019. Mount Union will have to win by stopping the run, and that's not only the running backs but trying to contain Luke Lehnen. If they can keep Lehnen in the pocket and force him to beat them with his arm, they could pull this off, but the Purple Raiders also need to be able to run and keep the clock moving to do so. North Central 41, Mount Union 27.

Adam's take:  So which familiar opponent will the Warhawks face in Stagg Bowl XLVIII? It depends on what you believe in. Fate, destiny, and conspiracy theories all point in one direction. But on-field performance over the past two full seasons leans the other way. Mount Union has the edge in quarterback experience with Braxton Plunk. North Central has the X-factor in Andrew Kamienski. The Purple Raiders have the hostile home crowd on their side. The Cardinals will travel with a boulder on their shoulder, feeling deserving of hosting this semifinal. Mount Union has been tested and survived during this playoff run. North Central has barely had to sweat. The Cardinals would love to spoil what most expect to be a homefield advantage in the Stagg Bowl. The 2019 Stagg Bowl champions possess the one thing you need to pull off a win in Alliance, something most opponents lack: an earned confidence that they can come in and win. North Central 31, Mount Union 27.

Frank's take:   It's rare that I would pick a team to win a national semifinal that is starting a freshman as quarterback. However, the playoff run for North Central has shown that while Luke Lehnen may be young in age, he is mature beyond many seniors in the country on the field. He has learned to make excellent decisions and listened to mentors like senior WR Andrew Kamienski this year. I fear how good Lehnen will be if he plays all four years at NCC. I raise this because if folks have dinged NCC because of the graduation of Broc Rutter, and the crux of the team from 2019 aside from Rutter is still in place, then why wouldn't the Cardinals be able to beat a Mount Union team again that has been a little more mistake-prone than I'm used to in the playoffs? Mount Union can win this came, but they have to avoid errors like those they made last week vs. Muhlenberg and somehow shut down the run game of NCC early and often.  North Central 37, Mount Union 24.

Greg's take:   This may be a rematch of 2019’s game of the tournament, but I don’t see a replay of the 59-52 shootout that springboarded North Central to their first national championship. Both teams come to this semifinal with quarterbacks getting their first opportunity on this stage. Mount Union has had a coaching change. The Purple Raider run defense has been excellent in these playoffs, and will need to be against North Central’s dominant offensive line and wrecking ball running back Ethan Greenfield. The Purple Raider offense has big play potential all of the time with speed merchant wide receiver Wayne Ruby, but I also look for Mount Union to give an outsized role to Josh Petrucelli- the Purple Raiders are at their best when Petrucelli is getting a lot of touches, and playing keep away from North Central is a key part of Mount Union’s path to victory here.  Also key- limiting the kinds of errors we’ve seen out of the Purple Raiders over the last couple of weeks. North Central has consistently looked like the best team in the division all season, while Mount Union has shown the occasional blemish- it’s hard to pick against the team I’ve had on the top of my top 25 ballot for the last three months.  North Central 38, Mount Union 20.  

Mary Hardin-Baylor at UW-Whitewater, 3:30 p.m. EST/2:30 CST, ESPN+

Keith's take:  One of the drawbacks of Division III is that there is hardly a person in the country who has watched both of these teams enough to analyze what appear to be minute differences in mirror-image programs. Both Mary Hardin-Baylor and UW-Whitewater are stout up front, sound on defense, and have somewhat unheralded quarterbacks playing their best football. Both were top six nationally in passing efficiency, held opponents to about 10 points per game and rush for more than 5.5 yards per carry. So maybe this is the textbook "if these two teams played 10 times each would win five" or the "whichever team turns it over less often wins" game. It's tempting to go UMHB after seven TD passes last week, but I don't know that this outcome resembles the high-scoring blowouts of recent weeks as much as it does each team's grind-it-out wins against Trinity and UW-La Crosse. Let's go with the Warhawks, at home in the cold, to set up the rematch of the 2019 Stagg Bowl: UW-Whitewater 20, Mary Hardin-Baylor 17.

Ryan's take: I'll admit that I started to waffle on UMHB after watching them at the start of the playoffs, but last week against Linfield renewed my belief in the team to make it to the Stagg Bowl. The fact that Kyle King got almost 18 percent of his season's total passing yards in one week -- against a team like Linfield -- is amazing. Field position will be key in this game, because both teams excel in the red zone (both offensively and defensively), so if one team can deliver some quick scores on a short field, it would make a big difference and force the other side to amend their game strategy and possibly go outside their comfort zone. Mary Hardin-Baylor 27, UW-Whitewater 21.

Pat's take:  It feels like we are destined to get another classic between these two. The weather might make the Cru passing game a little passe but presumably UMHB still knows how to run the ball if it needs to. It's Alex Peete who needs to run the most, though, to give Max Meylor and the passing portion of the offense some legitimate balance. It seems as though semifinals are won like this -- under the lights, in 85% empty stadiums, between two teams that will just take it right to each other, and I don't expect any different. UW-Whitewater 23, Mary Hardin-Baylor 21.

Adam's take:   Both of these teams put up surprising results in the quarterfinals. Their proven defenses shut down two of the best quarterbacks in recent D-III history, but it was the offensive outbursts from both the Warhawks and Cru that were most unexpected. The Warhawks dominated the line of scrimmage in the second half of their rout of Central. They still have the edge up front in this matchup. But Mary Hardin-Baylor has downfield weapons, even more than we previously thought. Kyle King is unlikely to repeat last week's six-TD, 400-yard performance against UW-Whitewater. Sacks and turnovers will make the difference in what should be a much lower scoring battle than last week for both teams. The home team has the edge, setting up a familiar Stagg Bowl showdown.  UW-Whitewater 24, Mary Hardin-Baylor 18.

Frank's take:   This is one of those games where I have to look beyond the stats. UMHB, in terms of yardage figures, has shown a better offense (478 vs. 461) and defense (allowed 231 vs. 264) in the statistics this season. UMHB Sr. QB Kyle King has scored 41 TDs despite missing a few games, while UWW Sr. QB Max Meylor has scored 39 TDs. Even score differential favors UMHB (+41 vs. +32). However, when I look at the Warhawks, I see a team with more balance in offense than any other team UMHB has faced this year (running back Alex Peete is a rock-solid weapon), with an offensive line that hasn't missed a beat this year. And I see a defense that has been as strong as UMHB's in a pool of strong WIAC teams. This will be a great matchup, in which I give a slight edge to Whitewater.  UW-Whitewater 21, Mary Hardin-Baylor 17.

Greg's take:   So they meet again- these two purple powers will square off for the third consecutive postseason.  The first two games, both in Belton, were split.  The scene shifts to Wisconsin this weekend where the visiting Crusaders will find one of the most complete and consistent teams in the division. I think the Cru defense is going to be challenged by maybe the most complete, balanced offense in the division. We know the Warhawks will run the ball, but Max Meylor has played as well as any quarterback in the nation this season and is more than capable of getting the ball down the field if UMHB overcommits to stopping Alex Peete and the Warhawk run game. The wild card in this game will be Kyle King and the UMHB offense- if the restrictor plate stays off (and the weather cooperates with a vertical game) after the 49-point, seven passing touchdown game last week, anything can happen. UMHB Brandon Jordan is a difference maker and if the Cru can get him in the end zone multiple times, they’ve got a great chance. I’m taking UWW’s balance and consistency in what should be a fantastic new chapter in this series.  UW-Whitewater 28, Mary Hardin-Baylor 25.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!