Photo by Steve Frommell, d3photography.com

It's the quarterfinal round and with just four games on the agenda this weekend, our Quick Hits panel is going to give you scores and a little more this week. The remaining field is truly elite with the top four ranked teams in D3football.com's Top 25 all hosting games tomorrow. Who will advance to the semifinals and how will they do it? Our Quick Hits crew predicts the quarterfinals below!

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi, plus a guest. We're excited to have Around The Nation originator and longtime Division III guru Keith McMillan joining us on the Quick Hits panel throughout the playoffs.

— Greg Thomas

Linfield at Mary Hardin-Baylor

	Keith's take: Easily the week's premier matchup, it's yet another clash between the class of the D-III island out west, and the one in Texas. For some reason, back in early September, UMHB was getting a dozen first-place votes and Linfield was ranked outside the top 10, but after winning at St. John's last week, the Wildcats feel like the hotter team coming in. Still, UMHB's low-scoring win against Trinity in Round 1 was no anomaly; the Tigers had the No. 2 defense in the nation behind Del Val. The Cru put up 42 points in Round 2; maybe that's more representative than the 13 in Round 1. But even though it is on the road, the team with the senior quarterback often has the advantage in matchups of otherwise-evenly-matched- teams.  Linfield 28, Mary Hardin-Baylor 24.
	Pat's take: I sat here staring at the empty screen a lot today in writing this. Linfield got past St. John's last week but the speed of the St. John's defense was a struggle for Linfield to adjust to at first. And Mary Hardin-Baylor's will only be faster. Linfield made the most of two special teams mistakes by St. John's and UMHB has veteran people in the punting and punt return roles. Even after I trust that Linfield will avoid the two deep balls that St. John's hit on, I still wonder about this game ... even though I have been very high on Linfield for most of the year. Mary Hardin-Baylor 24, Linfield 21.
	Adam's take: The Wildcats have been one of the most dominant teams in the nation all year and it felt like they were flying under the radar. That's no longer the case after Linfield pulled the upset in Collegeville last week. Wyatt Smith's experience at quarterback gives Linfield the slight edge. The Wildcats come in more battle-tested than the Cru, and Mary Hardin-Baylor can't afford another slow start this week.  Linfield 33, Mary Hardin-Baylor 31.
	Ryan's take:  The first Stagg Bowl I ever saw in person was 2004, where these two teams faced off, and they've certainly met on the field more than a few times since then. With UMHB's ground game still the flagship feature of the offense, I think the Cru will stumble a bit against the stingy Wildcats' rushing defense. And Linfield has one of the nation's best playmakers under center in Wyatt Smith to always keep the momentum high.  Linfield 28, Mary Hardin-Baylor 20.
	Frank's take: I hearken back to the days of former Linfield phenom QB Sam Riddle to remember that the Wildcats can never seem to clear this CRU hurdle. The UMHB defense has been stalwart so far, and I don't see it changing Saturday. Mary Hardin-Baylor 21, Linfield 14.
	Greg's take: I'm sticking with my prediction in ATN's Surprises and Disappointments column: If Linfield can go into Collegeville and win, they can win anywhere, including Belton. The Wildcats have started slow offensively in each of their two tournament games so far. I think getting ahead of UMHB is important, so reversing the slow start trend is important. But the Wildcats have also adjusted well in these playoffs. Keep an eye on how well UMHB can pressure Wyatt Smith- Linfield adjusted to St. John's great defensive line after three early sacks, and keeping a clean pocket for Wyatt Smith will be paramount. This is the kind of game and kind of opponent where the Crusader offense throttles down a notch, so I expect a lower scoring game.  Linfield 21, Mary Hardin-Baylor 19.

Central at UW-Whitewater

	Keith's take: I've been scolded by the D-III cognoscenti for being too flip in these picks before, but still I'm going to say this: Finally, a UW-Whitewater playoff game worth watching. The 12-0 Warhawks have had the easiest first two opponents of any remaining teams -- dominating, as they should, to the tune of 114-7. The 12-0 Central Dutch have had the toughest road to the round of eight, beating strong runners up from the MIAC and CCIW. Both can score and gut out a close game. Central has the experienced quarterback. But the doubt isn't whether the skill players can hang. It's whether the Dutch can muscle up with UW-Whitewater, especially after rushing 17 times for 8 yards against Wheaton. The Warhawks rushed for at least 171 yards at 4.0 per carry against its two toughest WIAC opponents, and 3.8 per carry against Salisbury. Sounds like a recipe for ball control against Central, limiting the touches the high-powered Dutch offense gets.  UW-Whitewater 35, Central 24.
	Pat's take: Have seen Central play in person and have seen UW-Whitewater but this does not help me one bit. What I do know is that UW-Whitewater can run the ball enough and be deliberate enough to keep Blaine Hawkins and the Central offense off the field for a good amount of time, and that helps. The Warhawks will certainly find it tougher going against the Central defense than they did against DePauw and Greenville, but it's not as if they've forgotten how to play at a high level considering how often they had to do so in the WIAC schedule. Hoping for a good game but fearing the opposite. UW-Whitewater 31, Central 21.
	Adam's take: I'm done picking against Central now. The Dutch have flipped the script for postseason football and are proving that an uber-talented quarterback in a full throttle system can pick apart any defense. I thought Bethel's defense would slow Blaine Hawkins and I was almost certain that Wheaton's vaunted front could pressure him into mistakes. I was mistaken. The Warhawks also boast an imposing defense, similar to Wheaton's. Like last week's Central win, this could come down to the game's final snap.  Central 30, UW-Whitewater 28.
	Ryan's take: Central clearly has played well at points this season, but last week, we saw something truly amazing emerge from that team. So, can they do it again against a team that's every bit as good (or better?) than Wheaton was. Whitewater has had a much easier post-season to this point, so they'll feel fresher than Central does. Still, I'm leaning toward the upset again.  Central 28, UW-Whitewater 27.
	Frank's take: Four rushing TDs in a playoff game for a single player? Alex Peete has reminded us how well-balanced the UWW offense is, while their defense continues to dominate. That combo will thwart the Blaine Hawkins Express -- but it's been a helluva ride for him and Central.  UW-Whitewater 37, Central 10.
	Greg's take: Nobody has posted two more impressive results than the Central Dutch have through two rounds of this postseason, but Central has paid the price and will be without some key pieces on Saturday. I have no doubt that Blaine Hawkins will do some typical Blaine Hawkins magical things, but I'm not sure the Dutch have enough in the gas tank to go 60 minutes with a big, physical, and fresh Whitewater team. I expect Central to keep the game interesting for two quarters before Whitewater's strength wears down a Central team that has survived two top 15 matchups already. UW-Whitewater 34, Central 27.

RPI at North Central

	Keith's take: There's little in RPI's profile that suggests it will upset the defending champions: Its past seven games and 9 of 12 have been decided by one score. Remarkably, the Engineers have won all but one of them, and there's no shame in that, or making it to the final eight. RPI's formula has been to keep it low-scoring and close. North Central's has been to dominate up front and use a diverse offense to score 50+. The Cardinals' two sub-50 performances were still two-touchdown wins against No. 6 Wheaton and No. 11 UW-La Crosse. Assuming there are no drops of sure touchdowns this week, you'd have to figure No.18 RPI doesn't have the offense to hang.  North Central 30, RPI 10.
	Pat's take: I'm looking forward to seeing this game and seeing what RPI does to keep North Central in check. I remember predicting that North Central would beat Delaware Valley 41-20 at this stage in 2019 and the final was 31-14 so ... North Central 31, RPI 14.
	Adam's take: At this point it's a skill, not luck. The Engineers have mastered the art of the single-digit victory, with eight on the season after consecutive narrow playoff wins. The Cardinals have too much firepower on offense. Ethan Greenfield and company will jump out to an early lead, forcing RPI to play catchup all day. The magic will run out on an impressive and dramatic RPI season.  North Central 40, RPI 21.
	Ryan's take: The Engineers' Cinderella playoff run ends here against the defending national champs. The defense may keep this game close at the beginning, but the combo of NCC skill players like Ethan Greenfield and Andrew Kamienski will wear down RPI over the long haul.  North Central 34, RPI 14.
	Frank's take:  For RPI to win, they would need the time of possession to be about 40/20 in their favor and need to play perfect, turnover-free football. I don't think the Engineers will have the ability to control the pace in the second half, allowing NCC to pull away for a semifinal berth.  North Central 34, RPI 17
	Greg's take: RPI feels less Cinderella-ish to me than maybe some of our other panelists. The Engineers did not win a rugged Liberty League by accident or defeat the undefeated E8 champions last weekend by luck- this Engineers team is very good, very experienced, and they simply do not beat themselves. But- North Central has leveled up.  The Cardinals are in the tippy top tier of the Division now and they live in that stratosphere of elite teams that overwhelm even very good Division III teams. I expect North Central to control both lines of scrimmage, another big day for Ethan Greenfield, and a game that could get away from RPI and take them out of their preferred, slower tempo. It's going to take more than RPI's customary three or four scores to dethrone the champs.  North Central 41, RPI 13.

Muhlenberg at Mount Union

	Keith's take: As I wrote on Twitter, strip away the history and prestige in this matchup for a second. Would you favor the team with a fifth-year senior quarterback, coming in off three straight shutouts, and that has a common-opponent 21-6 win instead of 45-35? Or do you take the team that starts 15 seniors, has only been held below 40 twice and allowed more than 14 twice, and is at home, where the majority of its 106 playoff wins have happened? These Purple Raiders don't have as many playmakers on either side of the ball as many of the great Kehres teams did, and Centennial teams have fared better than most in Alliance, but we'd be fools to bet against Mount Union. Also, Muhlenberg fans love when I pick the other team.  Mount Union 34, Muhlenberg 27.
	Pat's take: It is definitely instructive to look at the common opponent matchup with Johns Hopkins, but as discussed on the podcast, I'm not entirely sure what to take away from it. Michael Hnatkowsky is definitely a better quarterback, and we saw Ohio Northern put up a bunch of points on Mount Union as well. But it wouldn't be enough in my mind to swing this matchup. Mount Union 31, Muhlenberg 20.
	Adam's take: The Mules defense hasn't given up a first quarter point since October 2, and haven't given up any points at all over their past three contests. The Purple Raiders are going to have to be patient, and the pressure will be on Mount Union's defense to force a couple of turnovers. Muhlenberg has a recipe similar to North Central's from 2019 -- experienced quarterback, underrated defense -- to pull the upset. That's not an easy thing to do in Alliance.  Mount Union 24, Muhlenberg 20.
	Ryan's take: I talked myself out of picking the upset here, because it's simply so hard to pick against Mount Union prior to the national semi-finals. Behind Hnatkowsky, Muhlenberg has the passing power to make this a fun-to-watch game like JHU did last week. But the Mules also can't expect a fourth-consecutive shutout here, so their game plan for the full 60 minutes will need to evolve.  Mount Union 31, Muhlenberg 28.
	Frank's take: I asked a respected friend in coaching if the Mules could win this game, and his answer was, "Yes...Will need to look like a typical Mount/John Carroll game. I think the Mules would need a game like 27-24." I think Muhlenberg's capable of dictating the pace of the game enough to be in it late, with Hnatkowsky's experience leading to a win.  Muhlenberg 27, Mount Union 24.
	Greg's take: The Centennial Conference convention continues this weekend in Alliance. Despite a decent statistical day, Johns Hopkins quarterback inexperience showed at times with some untimely turnovers and red zone stalls that the Blue Jays couldn't overcome. Enter Muhlenberg's Michael Hnatkowsky, the active career leader in passing yards who has 50 career games under his belt. We'll remember what happened the last time the Division's active career passing leader came to Alliance, but the challenges will be plenty for Muhlenberg. Forcing some Mount Union turnovers will be important while Hntakowsky taking care of the ball will be just as important. The Mule secondary will be tested by the explosive combination of Wayne Ruby, Jr. and Braxton Plunk. I'm taking the Raiders this week to return to the semifinal, but the Centennial Confernece will have shown well in Alliance for a second week.  Mount Union 30, Muhlenberg 24.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!