Union's game against RPI will be a key game for the playoff hopes of many teams. Union athletics photo by Rayna Katzman

The regular season concludes tomorrow with Senior Days, traveling trophies, 11 more automatic bids, and the last chance for at-large teams to make their case before the selection committee sets the playoff field. Our Quick Hits crew has once again assembled to preview the biggest games in Division III. 

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi, plus a guest. This week's guest is Wheaton color analyst and Wheaton football alumnus, Doug Rothschild. While Doug has full access to the entire Quick Hits guest chair as all of our guest panelists do, he'll only be using the edge this week.  

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: It's gotta be the Shoes! No. 21 RPI at No. 23 Union will impact the playoff fates of a handful of teams across the division. The Liberty League's final few weeks have produced classic after classic, and there's little reason to think this one won't do the same.
	Pat's take: No. 21 RPI at No. 23 Union, aka the Dutchman Shoes game. There are a number of big games this weekend, but this is a game with huge playoff implications that also kicks off at noon Eastern, so it has that early time slot to shine in and teams will know early who gets that automatic bid from the Liberty League.
	Adam's take: No. 21 RPI at No. 23 Union. The Liberty League all comes down to the Dutchman's Shoes. If RPI wins, the Engineers are in. If the Dutchmen win, Ithaca will be crowned LL champs and Union will be holding its breath on Selection Sunday hoping for a Pool C berth. A pure elimination game in a Week 11 rivalry battle--it doesn't get much better than that.
	Ryan's take: No. 5 St. John's at No. 13 Bethel. It was a fun one when these two met early in the season, and St. John's should be in consideration for a No. 1 seed this year, so there's a lot riding on this outcome.
	Frank's take: No. 21 RPI at No. 23 Union. It’s a game with Pool A implications for the Liberty League that could also affect the NEWMAC tiebreaker (if it becomes necessary). It also could affect Pool C, with Union sporting a healthy SoS and overall profile if the Dutchmen win.
	Doug's take:  I hope I can be as successful as my friend Kevin Niehaus from last week (6-0). I would go with a rivalry game with huge playoff implications. Bethel vs. St. John's is the headliner, but the Cortaca Jug has Ithaca, with its playoff fate in its own hands, at Cortland, who is playing for some home field advantage with one of their better teams in recent history.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 25 DePauw. In 2010 Wabash entered the Monon Bell game on the heels of a difficult loss to Wittenberg while DePauw entered as an undefeated conference champion. The Little Giants prevailed on that day 47-0.  I don't expect a shutout from either side in the 2021 edition of the Monon Bell Classic, but Wabash can certainly win a shootout.
	Pat's take: No. 5 St. John's. Greg forced me into making a call on this game on the podcast on Monday and I am not backing away from that prediction now.
	Adam's take: No. 20 Baldwin Wallace. I'm interested to see how the Blue Streaks play when there is nothing but pride to play for. John Carroll is certainly the toughest unranked opponent facing a ranked team this week.
	Ryan's take: No. 20 Baldwin Wallace. Yeah, I know I picked them last week, too, but that's what happens when you finish out the season with two of your toughest opponents. Plus, you know, passions are different in rivalry games.
	Frank's take: No. 5 St. John’s (at No. 13 Bethel). Virtually every Week 11 has chaos. It just goes with the territory. A two-loss Bethel would be a tough sell for Pool C, and the Royals know it. In a game at home against a different Johnnies QB this time, Bethel wins, officially knocking a bubble team’s Pool C dreams since the Johnnies would be a Pool C lock.
	Doug's take: No. 20 Baldwin Wallace. While this is also an admittedly selfish pick, BW has had 2 close calls the past two weeks (winning by 3 vs Marietta and by 3 @ONU) I think 6-3 visitor John Carroll clips them this week and sends them home for the winter.

Which team will play its way into or out of a home playoff game?

	Greg's take: No. 15 Muhlenberg. Muhlenberg's #2 ranking in Region 2 was one of the big surprises from this week's regional rankings.  It's clear that the Region 2 RAC really likes what Muhlenberg has done this year and the Mules appear likely to sew up a home game with a win over Moravian.
	Pat's take: The team which loses the Cortaca Jug game. If Cortland loses, then they probably still get a first-round game, but it will have played its way out of home games after the first weekend.
	Adam's take: No. 18 Ithaca. If the Bombers can make it four straight against rival Cortland, they should earn a home playoff berth even if they get into the tournament via Pool C. The Red Dragons are out to snap that skid and get revenge for 2019, when a Cortaca loss knocked them out of playoff contention.
	Ryan's take: Delaware Valley. A win against Widener will bolster the Aggies' resume and make them a strong candidate for being No. 2 in their bracket -- and earning a couple of home games.
	Frank's take: No. 5 St. John’s (at Bethel). For the reasons listed above, St. John’s would lose at least two home games, if not three with a loss to Bethel.
	Doug's take: Lake Forest. The Foresters are 9-0 and set up, with a win, to host a game. With a loss they get shipped to a place where playoff teams go to die (e.g. Janesville, Collegeville, Naperville).

Which game are you following that no one else on the panel is following?

	Greg's take: Minnesota-Morris at Greenville. Not only will this game produce a champion in the UMAC, but will produce a first time playoff entrant as well. Program history will be made at the end of this game.
	Pat's take: Merchant Marine at Coast Guard. What, everyone is following this game? OK, but I just felt the Secretaries' Cup needed to be mentioned and there wasn't a good spot to do so.
	Adam's take: Mount St. Joseph at Rose-Hulman. Despite a baffling one-point loss at Defiance (1-8) on October 23, the Lions still have their HCAC championship goals in front of them. It will be a tall task to take down the Fightin' Engineers in Terre Haute. The schedule and results have set this up to be a true conference title game.
	Ryan's take: Westfield State at Fitchburg State. One of these teams will be able to avoid a winless season.
	Frank's take: Chicago at Lake Forest. Thanks to the MWC braintrust that determined a regulation game can be less than four quarters, Lake Forest needs to win at least one quarter against Chicago to win the convoluted “quarters led” tiebreaker should the Foresters lose. Whoever made this tiebreaker and decision should be Marooned in a desolate Forest.
	Doug's take: UW-River Falls (7-2) at UW-Oshkosh (7-2). This is a playoff game to get into the inaugural Isthmus Bowl agains the CCIW No. 3 (I hope).

Which rivalry game will produce the biggest upset?

	Greg's take: The Keystone Cup. No. 10 Delaware Valley has been unchallenged through MAC play in 2021, but Widener is the clear second choice from this conference. The Pride have had a good season to this point and have the chance to snap a five game losing streak to their rival on Saturday.
	Pat's take: King's vs. Wilkes, for the Mayor's Cup. The 25th edition of this game between the Division III football teams in the Wilkes-Barre area should provide the best opportunity for an upset.
	Adam's take: The Game. No. 24 Randolph-Macon is clinging to hopes of a Pool C berth. Hampden-Sydney would like nothing more than to ruin their rival's season. A rival with nothing to lose is a dangerous opponent.
	Ryan's take: Knox over Monmouth. The Prairie Fire have been getting better about getting points on the board, something relatively few teams have been able to do to the Scots -- and it's something that could impact their game plan.
	Frank's take: Wabash vs. DePauw. Wabash will win because “Wabash Always Fights.” But seriously, the 127th Monon Bell game will be a close affair that Wabash can win, having been a part of four one-possession finishes this season.
	Doug's take: The Monon Bell Classic. Depauw is a heavy favorite on paper, having already wrapped up the NCAA bid, but with one of football's oldest rivalries, on national TV, in Crawfordsville, the LG’s won’t disappoint.

Which team will be the highest ranked team left out of the tournament?

	Greg's take: Based on my projected field this week, No. 8 Hardin-Simmons could make the wrong kind of history and end up as the first top-10 ranked team to miss the playoffs in the expanded playoff era (1999-present).
	Pat's take: Hardin-Simmons. I just don't see a viable path to the playoffs right now based on the last regional rankings.
	Adam's take: UW-Oshkosh. Currently ranked No. 19, the Titans face a tough test against UW-River Falls in Week 11. Another quality win will likely move them up in the poll, but the days of a two-loss at-large team getting into the dance appear to be numbered.
	Ryan's take: UW-Oshkosh. It's unlikely a third WIAC team could make the tourney this year, especially one that doesn't have a real nation-bending win to hang its hat on.
	Frank's take: No. 8 Hardin-Simmons. The way Region 3’s RAC has shaped things, it might be virtually impossible for the Cowboys to get to the table at all if St. John’s loses since Birmingham-Southern’s profile is not going to lead to them being picked before SJU, UWL, Region 2’s first candidate, and potentially Baldwin Wallace. Their odds of being picked are less than 50/50 currently.
	Doug's take: Again, selfishly, I hope I’m right with this one. No. 8 Hardin Simmons is set up for disappointment as their own regional committee has them behind Birmingham-Southern, keeping them from the Pool C table for the first few picks and likely sealing their historical fate. If the results fall differently this weekend though, No. 6 Wheaton is definitely in the on-deck circle for this “highest ranked ever” distinction.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!