Mary Hardin-Baylor athletics photo by David Morris

By Greg Thomas
D3sports.com

The NCAA released the first regional rankings of the 2021 football season on Wednesday and as you’ve no doubt noticed, the teams weren’t ranked, they were listed alphabetically. We knew this was coming and if you’re joining the conversation for the first time and want to know why the NCAA has chosen to do it this way, Pat Coleman and Dave McHugh put out a special podcast last week to explain why this is happening. I highly recommend giving the show a listen — it is technical and very in-the-weeds about Division III administrative processes, but provides all of the context you need to know why we got the first set of regional rankings delivered in this fashion.

So we know who got ranked — but not where these teams are ranked. That matters! Not all results against ranked opponents are equal. A close loss to Region 5’s No. 1 ranked team isn’t the same as a close loss to Region 4’s sixth ranked team. These alphabetical lists are a good starting point, but we can’t help but feel like the assignment is unfinished. So we’ve set out to put some order to the orderless, apply Division III’s selection criteria (including results against ranked opponents!) to the data we have, and rank these teams in the way we’re used to seeing.

Before we get into the rankings, a quick note about Pool C. This is the list of ranked teams this week that could wind up in Pool C (at large) as one-loss teams:

Salve Regina
Union
Ithaca
W&J
Johns Hopkins
Hardin-Simmons
SAA runner-up
Randolph-Macon
Baldwin Wallace
Wheaton
Lake Forest
Chicago
WIAC runner up
Whitworth

That’s 13 teams. Not all will get to Selection Sunday with just the one loss and a couple may qualify through Pool A (as automatic bids), but most are going to land in that one-loss runner up zone. That is not to mention any of the quality two-loss teams in this week’s rankings or one-loss teams that did not get ranked this week. If your team wasn’t ranked this week, it is highly unlikely that participating in the NCAA tournament as an at-large team is in the cards.

Alright, let’s rank some teams!

Region 1

As the only unbeaten team in the region, Delaware Valley is the clear and obvious choice for the top of the Region 1 rankings. If you’ve been following D3football.com’s pre-playoff coverage for a number of seasons, you may be aware that I have a strong preference at this time of year for teams that have beaten other good teams. You can see that represented in these rankings as I’ve chosen to rank Salve Regina and Endicott ahead of teams that have not registered a win against a ranked opponent.

Team(s) that ATN might have listed differently: Interestingly, most of the wins against ranked opponents come from teams that didn’t make the cut this week: Springfield, Catholic, FDU-Florham, and Western New England all have wins over teams that are ranked this week. Each of these teams also have results against three ranked opponents, which is significant. They all have strengths of schedule that rank higher than five of Region 1’s ranked teams. They also all have 5-3 records which won’t be good enough to be ranked.

Region 2

The depth of quality in Region 2 is impressive. Cortland just edges Union for the top spot based on marginally better results against common opponents Utica and Morrisville State. After that, things get perhaps a little unexpected. I want to honor RPI’s head to head win over ithaca but also feel compelled to honor Ithaca’s outstanding SOS. Washington and Jefferson having lost to an unranked team feels like a good floor for Ithaca. The Presidents RRO victory nudges them above Salisbury who doesn’t have one. Then you’re left with the Centennial teams at the bottom primarily because Muhlenberg should be ranked ahead of Johns Hopkins by way of their head to head victory but that Mules SOS is significantly less than any other team in this region’s rankings which puts a pretty low ceiling on their ranking. SOS help is on the way this week for Muhlenberg, which should also help Hopkins as they try to climb these rankings and get into position for an at-large bid.

Team(s) that ATN might have listed differently: On my first read of the rankings today, I was surprised to not see Brockport or Hobart listed. After some contemplation, I’m not really sure who I would bump for either of those two. Also, Susquehanna is the one team unranked today that maybe has an outside chance at playing into the at-large conversation. Also unranked: Westminster, who beat W&J and has one other loss to the best team in Region 4. You couldn’t properly rank all of the deserving teams in Region 2 if you still had ten spots. If I were going to list something differently in this region, I think you could justify ranking Hobart (6-2, 0.559 SOS, 1-2 vs. RRO) and Brockport (6-2, 0.557 SOS, 1-2 vs. RRO) instead of Muhlenberg and Johns Hopkins.

Region 3

Region 3’s undefeated teams all share sub-0.500 SOS’s and one regionally ranked win. I’ve placed Mary Hardin-Baylor first on the strength of their win vs. Hardin-Simmons as opposed to the SAA’s top teams wins over Centre. If this is considered a tie of any kind, UMHB’s previous tournament record would also support this ranking. Randolph-Macon, and Centre as well, actually grades out better than Washington and Lee in most categories except for that walk off win the Generals scored in Ashland in Week 4. W&L’s poor SOS limits how far up they can go in these rankings, which impacts Randolph-Macon’s chances at an at-large bid.

Team(s) that ATN might have listed differently: The list of rankable teams in Region 3 is actually pretty small, and ATN wouldn’t have chosen a different team for this week’s rankings. Huntingdon has a close result against UW-Oshkosh (ranked in Region 6), but also a very bad defeat to Birmingham-Southern.

Region 4

More than half of the teams ranked in Region 4 come from the OAC which may tell us more about the quality of play in Region 4 than it does about the OAC. It hasn’t been a banner year for the HCAC or the NCAC. The good news for Mount Union and Baldwin Wallace is that if most of these spots are taken up by OAC teams, they collect regionally ranked results and boost profiles for selection and seeding. Mount Union is the only team this week that has defeated three ranked teams and they’ve just missed a fourth because Region 2 needs a bigger rankings boat. Heidelberg’s SOS nudges them just ahead of John Carroll for me, even if John Carroll’s RRO results are slightly better.

Team(s) that ATN might have listed differently: Once you get past these seven teams, the pickings get pretty slim in Region 4. I do believe we’ll see Rose-Hulman make this list next week if the Engineers can win against Franklin this weekend. No suggested swaps for this week, however.

Region 5

The defending champions have been excellent all season and are the only choice for the top spot in Region 5. Central has been outstanding as well but they have an SOS that is low enough to potentially undermine their perfect win percentage. Fortunately for Central, the SOS numbers throughout this region are not great and I’ll have them plugged in behind North Central. You’re going to hear a lot about Wheaton’s SOS in the next ten days. This week, I think it is high enough to warrant ranking ahead of an undefeated Lake Forest team. The Thunder’s 21-7 loss to North Central also remains the best ranked opponent loss among Pool C contenders. SOS and lack of ranked opponents land Chicago and Lakeland at the bottom of Region 5’s rankings, but both have ample opportunity over the next two Saturday’s to stay on this list.

Team(s) that ATN might have listed differently: There are a few two-loss teams that I would have ranked ahead of Lakeland. While Lakeland’s victory margins against common NACC opponents has been better than Benedictine, the Eagles did defeat the Muskies head to head and outpace Lakeland’s SOS by 0.064, which is quite significant. Monmouth would also be a solid 6-2 candidate to replace Lakeland. Monmouth’s SOS advantage is quite as significant over Lakeland, but Monmouth is 1-1 against ranked opponents.

Region 6

The margin between the top two teams in Region 6 is razor thin and the edge will go to UW-Whitewater thanks to their semifinal win over the Johnnies in 2019. The previous championship record tiebreak is going to keep St. John’s from being the top ranked team in this region should the Warhawks continue to win, but if the Johnnies end the season undefeated they ought to be considered for one of the top four overall seeds. The debate around 10-0 St. John’s, Mount Union, and the top team in Region 1 or 2 will be interesting. The remainder of the region really breaks down in a straightforward fashion. Bethel’s loss to St. John’s was competitive and is enough to buoy the Royals ahead of UW-Oshkosh despite the titanic SOS that Oshkosh currently sports. Redlands and Whitworth both have lopsided losses in their one attempt against a ranked opponent (Linfield for both). Whitworth has ever-so-slightly better results against opponents they have in common with Redlands (Linfield and Claremont-Mudd-Scripps), but the differences aren’t enough to overcome a significant SOS disadvantage.

Team(s) that ATN might have listed differently: Gustavus Adolphus has an SOS above 0.600 which is a compelling reason to rank them instead of Whitworth, but not so much so that I would have done it. If the Gusties had been more competitive in one of their two games against ranked opponents, they could have well been in this week’s rankings.

On tap

Did we do On Tap once this week already? We did, but we’re getting close to the playoffs which is more than enough reason for another round. Here’s what you can watch for every week at D3football.com:

Tomorrow: Quick Hits featuring our panel’s predictions and insights into this weekend’s games

Saturday: Game day. Get thee to the scoreboard and feast.

Sunday: New Top 25 poll

Monday: Around The Nation podcast. Pat Coleman and Greg Thomas recap the weekend that was and preview the weekend to come in Division III football.

Tuesday/Wednesday: Team of the Week honors, features columns

Thursday: Around the Nation column

Read options?

Small college football is actually pretty massive. Division III is home to 239 teams, many thousands of student-athletes and coaches. There are so many more stories out there than I can find on my own. Please share your stories that make Division III football so special for all of us! Reach out to me at greg.thomas@d3sports.com or on Twitter @wallywabash to share your stories.