/notables/2021/10/quick-hits-week5

Quick Hits: Our predictions for Week 5

Blaine Hawkins and the Central offense have rolled up the yards all season. Can Wartburg keep the Dutch in check the way it did to Gustavus Adolphus?
Central athletics photo by Dan L. Vander Beek Photography
 

All 28 conferences will be playing conference games this weekend. The Liberty League, Southern Athletic Association, and Commonwealth Coast Conference are all opening with a bang tomorrow. Our crew is also watching out for a WIAC upset as our No. 1 ranked conference also opens conference play. Those games and more in this week's bite-sized primer for Week 5. 

Our regular Quick Hits crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi, plus a guest. This week we rolled out the red carpet for three-time NCAA football champion Adam Irgang. Adam was a standout tight end at Mount Union from 1997-2000 and with Adam on board, the number of Quick Hits panelists that have caught touchdown passes in Stagg Bowls is up to one.  

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: Wartburg at No. 13 Central. The Dutch come in riding a Stat of the Week offensive wave after hanging 84 on  Simpson. Wartburg is in playoff mode after their Week 2 loss at Gustavus Adolphus. A second loss for the Knights likely sends their playoff hopes up the (American) river. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: No. 6 St. John's at Concordia-Moorhead. A number of these games have been exciting, down to the last minute, and occasionally even a potential upset, and the new Con Air offense could keep the Johnnies on their toes long enough to make this interesting.
Adam Turer head shot Adam's take: No. 21 Hobart at No. 17 Ithaca. The only meeting of ranked opponents features rivals from one of the most top-heavy conferences through the season's first half.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Wartburg at No. 13 Central. In the preseason, I had every expectation that this would be a game of undefeateds -- but the Knights slipped up in Week 2. This may not be the formal rivalry for each of these schools, but it'll play like one.
Frank Rossi head shot Frank's take: No. 21 Hobart at No. 17 Ithaca. With the Liberty League grabbing so much attention nationally with four undefeated teams, this conference matchup will begin solving the puzzle and will begin to determine whether the LL gets a Pool C bid.
Adam's take: I’m gonna pass on the obvious choice in the upstate NY battle and go to East Penn and choose No. 25 Susquehanna on the road at Ursinus.  

 

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: No. 16 Bethel. The Royals have to bounce back quickly after last week's tough loss at St. John's. The Gusties offense has been quite good -- whether the quarterback is going to be Michael Veldman or Jake Breitbach, the winner of the Royal Crown Rivalry may well be decided on whether or not Bethel has an answer for the Gusties' Swiss Swedish army knife, Dalton Thelan.
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: No. 8 UW-Oshkosh. The Titans' track record is a little spotty so far in 2021, with a close win on a long road trip to Huntingdon and a win against a below-average D-II program (Northern Michigan, nonetheless 2-2 this year). Platteville is at home, and they're 1-2 but one of those losses is to Bethel and I think Platteville is probably better than their results have shown so far. This is always a contrast in styles, so perhaps the offensive-minded Pioneers come through this time.
Adam Turer head shot Adam's take: No. 13 Central. The Knights and Dutch have been the powers of the ARC (and its previous iteration, the IIAC). Wartburg is in must-win mode after its non-conference loss in Week 2.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: No. 8 UW-Oshkosh. The Titans are probably ranked as high as they are right now based on pedigree rather than 2021 performance.
Frank Rossi head shot Frank's take: No. 16 Bethel (vs. Gustavus Adolphus). The Gusties might be catching Bethel at the right time, after Bethel’s try to come back at St. John’s fell short. I think the Gusties start strong and hold off a late Bethel surge.
Adam's take:  This is a tough one, but I’m gonna go with No. 16 Bethel. I think they let down a bit after last week's loss and the Gusties come out on top.

 

Which of the Division's top 5 passing yard leaders will throw for the most yards on Saturday? 

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: I'm betting (figuratively!) against storms in Mequon, Wisconsin, this weekend and going with Rockford's Jaelen Ray. I like the NACC's penchant for shootouts and how a potential track meet vs. Concordia (Wis.) feeds another monster statistical day from Ray. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Jaelen Ray, Rockford. I see this question as, "which of the Division's top 5 passing yard leaders will stay in the game longest on Saturday" and I think that the game between Rockford and Concordia (Wis.) will be the most competitive of the five. 
Adam Turer head shot Adam's take: Braxton Plunk, and he'll do it in just three quarters of play.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Averett's Bryce Jackson. With three really good targets and an N.C. Wesleyan team that gives up yards through the air, this weekend looks solid for Jackson.
Frank Rossi head shot Frank's take: Ryan Stevens, only because he is likely to stay in the game a bit longer against F&M than Plunk is against Otterbein.
Adam's take: I got Ryan Stevens. He’s hot right now and JHU likes to put points on the board. 

 

Which game are you following that no one else on the panel is following?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: Brockport at St. John Fisher. Yes, this is an important Empire 8 game, but this is also Courage Bowl XVI. The Courage Bowl raises awareness and funds for Camp Good Days, an organization that provides programming and support for children and families affected by cancer and sickle cell anemia. It's a tremendous event and we love to see Division III programs giving back to the community like this.  
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Buena Vista at Dubuque. I expect this could be another high-scoring shootout that will be fun to follow.
Adam Turer head shot Adam's take: Washington and Lee at Hampden-Sydney. After a thrilling finish to upset Randolph-Macon, will my Generals post another huge road win to stay unbeaten atop the ODAC? The Tigers are the only other team to open 2-0 in conference play.
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Marietta at Ohio Northern. When was the last time Marietta came to mind when you were thinking about the top of the OAC standings?
Frank Rossi head shot Frank's take: Salve Regina at Western New England. This game will help prove exactly where Salve is, as they enter the game 4-0. Western New England might be one of the best 2-2 teams in the New England area, with a really strong schedule leading to the losses. This is a great CCC matchup.
Adam's take: Hendrix at Centre. First game of conference play and Hendrix has a chance to turn their season around after a rough 1-2 start.  

 

Which 0-4 team will get off the schneid?

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: Keystone. Maybe a little history on the horizon for Keystone in their ECFC opener. Anna Maria is coming off a dramatic win at the Coast Guard Academy, but Keystone's challenging September has the Giants ready to compete in the ECFC. 
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: Maryville (vs. Southern Virginia). Assuming there will be lots of picks for Northwestern vs. Finlandia, but I would like to suggest another possibility. 
Adam Turer head shot Adam's take: Northwestern (Minn.). The Eagles host Finlandia, which hasn't won a game since 2017. 
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Maryville. There aren't many good opportunities, but both Maryville and opponent 1-3 Southern Virginia have played pretty on par this season. The Scots have a shot.
Frank Rossi head shot Frank's take: Alvernia (at King’s). The Golden Wolves have struggled for sure this season, but they’ve proven to be unpredictable in their short past. I think this might be their Saturday to get a little momentum.
Adam's take: Northwestern (Minn.). They face Finalndia this week who hasn’t won a game in a few years.  

 

Which undefeated team will win this week and move into Sunday's Top 25? 

Greg Thomas head shot Greg's take: Trinity (Texas). The Tigers have been impressive in their two outings so far. A dominant win at Berry would make Jerheme Urban's squad worthy of a ranking.
Pat Coleman head shot Pat's take: I don't mean to be disrespectful to the question, but I don't see this combination of things happening this week. 
Adam Turer head shot Adam's take: Wabash. If the Little Giants beat Denison on the road, they should be in (over the two potentially unbeaten SAA teams who face inferior competition this week). 
Ryan Tipps head shot Ryan's take: Wabash. I always feel like the homer making a pick like this, but 3-1 Denison is an opponent that would give the Little Giants some oomph into the poll.
Frank Rossi head shot Frank's take: RPI. With someone probably dropping out between Hobart and Ithaca, and with RPI likely beating Rochester, the LL gets a third team back with RPI, I believe.
Adam's take: Wabash. They are a perennial top 25 team and by beating a tough Denison team on the road could garner a few more top 25 votes.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!

Dec. 15: All times Eastern
Final
Cortland 38, at North Central (Ill.) 37
@ Salem, Virginia
Video Box Score Recap Photos
Dec. 9: All times Eastern
Final
North Central (Ill.) 34, at Wartburg 27
Box Score Recap
Final
Cortland 49, at Randolph-Macon 14
Box Score Recap Recap Recap Photos
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