|
| Regardless of whether it's Union, Hobart, RPI or Ithaca ... if any Liberty League team ends up with one loss and is up for at-large consideration on Selection Sunday, they have a shot of getting one of the few at-large bids to the NCAA Division III football playoffs. Union athletics photo by Rayna Katzman |
By Greg Thomas
D3sports.com
We’ve hit Week 7 in Division III football which means this 2021 regular season has made the turn and is headed home. With the final weeks of this return season upon us, now is the time for fans to start to focus in in the playoff picture. Is your team in the mix for a bid to the postseason? Which games from other regions do you need to watch on the D3football.com scoreboard? Around the Nation is here to set the table for an exciting final month of this season with an early region-by-region look at the postseason picture.
Very briefly, the Division III Football Championship (aka, the playoffs) is a 32-team tournament. Fully 27 of those teams qualify automatically by winning their regular season conference championship, while the remaining five bids are awarded by the national selection committee (not D3football.com!) based on a set of primary and secondary criteria that will be discussed at length all over this site and the Around the Nation podcast over the next four weeks — which is to say, there will be plenty of time for us to get really deep in the weeds as we approach Selection Sunday.
With that, let’s take a look at the playoff picture so far in each region. Oh — regions. We haven’t spent a ton of time talking about regional realignment this season, so now is a good time to remind everybody that gone are the days of East, South, North, and West. Division III football is now split into six regions, named ordinally.
And just today, it was learned that the committee is fixing some of the regional alignment questions people have had since the beginning, moving the American Southwest Conference to Region 3, and moving the Presidents' Athletic Conference to Region 2 to compensate.
Region 1 (New England-ish)
Conferences: CCC, ECFC, MAC, MASCAC, NEWMAC
Pool C history for these conferences is not great. The MAC has received three Pool C bids in the pools era (1999-present). Only two other Pool C bids have been earned by teams in this region. Both of those came in from the now defunct NEFC from teams now playing in the MASCAC.
When looking for Pool C candidates, particularly this early in the season, I tend to focus in on zero-loss teams as well as one-loss teams that have lost in conference play (meaning they can win out and possibly not qualify automatically). Delaware Valley and Wilkes are undefeated in MAC play and one or the other might wind up as a 9-1 runner up. Widener has games left with both Wilkes and Delaware Valley, so the Pride are likely in a win out for the automatic bid or play their way off the bubble situation.
The best Pool C opportunity in Region 1 might actually belong to Merchant Marine. The Mariners are getting a lot of help from FDU-Florham for now and if the Devils keep winning games in the MAC, the Mariners could wind up with a lot of SOS help as well as win over a regionally ranked team on their profile.
Games with Pool C implications: Wilkes at Widener (Oct. 16), Delaware Valley at FDU-Florham (Oct. 16), Catholic at Merchant Marine (Oct. 23), Delaware Valley at Wilkes (Nov. 6), Widener vs. Delaware Valley (Nov. 13)
Selection Sunday prognosis: Long shot. These are most likely one-bid leagues this year, with outside chances for a MAC runner up and possibly Merchant Marine should they not claim the NEWMAC’s automatic bid.
Region 2 (New York-ish)
Conferences: CC, E8, LL, NJAC, PAC
There has been a lot of chatter about the strength in Region 6, but Region 2 is also loaded with candidates for Pool C bids — despite a very down season out of the NJAC. Teams in this region have claimed a total of 21 Pool C bids in various permutations as many teams have spent time in multiple conferences since 1999. This region also has sent teams to the national semifinals in three of the last four tournaments.
It’s hard to see a path for Salisbury to reach the tournament if they suffer a second loss, so we can set the NJAC aside for the moment. Johns Hopkins and Susquehanna would both be viable Pool C candidates if they ended the season 9-1. Cortland, should they be upset anywhere through the rest of their E8 slate, would be a great Pool C candidate- if they were to win in Week 11 against Ithaca. Similarly, Ithaca beating Cortland to reach 9-1 seems like a scenario that would lock Ithaca into the tournament.
Washington and Jefferson remains the PAC’s best chance for an at-large bid. The Presidents’ win over John Carroll may well wind up being a win over a regionally ranked team, which is a piece of criteria gold, particularly at the tail end of the selection process which is where you might find the Presidents, should they not wind up leading the PAC.
The real Pool C intrigue from Region 2 is going to lie within the Liberty League and whether or not the balance among the top four teams in the league will result in too many losses for a viable Pool C team.
Games with Pool C implications: Johns Hopkins at Muhlenberg (Oct. 15), RPI at Hobart (Oct. 16), Westminster at Washington and Jefferson (Oct. 23), Hobart at Union (Oct. 30), Ithaca at RPI (Oct. 30), Susquehanna at Johns Hopkins (Oct. 30), Washington and Jefferson at Grove City (Oct. 30), Muhlenberg at Susquehanna (Nov. 6), Union at Ithaca (Nov. 6), RPI at Union (Nov. 13), Ithaca at Cortland (Nov. 13)
Pool C prognosis: There’s a good chance at least one Pool C bid comes out of this region depending on round robin results in the Liberty League. 9-1 Washington and Jefferson would also have a nice profile as long as John Carroll stays near the top of the OAC standings.
Region 3 (South Atlantic-ish)
Conferences: ASC, ODAC, SAA, USAC
Region 3 teams have collected 15 Pool C bids since 1999, and today's reorganization (PAC off to Region 2, ASC in from Region 6) make geographic sense for all involved. The ASC almost always seems capable of placing two teams in the tournament while the SAA has steadily improved the selection profiles of their teams, particularly in the SOS department.
The ASC has presented two Pool C candidates so far in 2021. Upstart Howard Payne will have a chance to displace Hardin-Simmons as the ASC’s runner up and position themselves well for an at-large bid.
As noted, the SAA has found some SOS traction and is producing better looking at-large teams. This fall, the SAA appears to have set a collision course for Trinity and Birmingham-Southern for the conference championship, with the loser in good shape for at-large consideration. Centre could play its way into at-large consideration as well should the Colonels run the table.
Randolph-Macon is putting together a nice profile as well while getting a huge assist from Catholic’s success. The Cardinals could well wind up as a ranked team in Region 1. Ferrum and Shenandoah are lurking in the ODAC with just one loss as well and could force their way into the at-large conversation by running the table. In the PAC,
Games with Pool C implications: Shenandoah at Ferrum (Oct. 16), Birmingham-Southern at Centre, Hardin-Simmons at Howard Payne (Oct. 30), Shenandoah at Randolph-Macon (Oct. 30), Ferrum at Washington and Lee (Nov. 6), Howard Payne at Mary Hardin-Baylor (Nov. 6), Trinity at Birmingham-Southern (Nov. 6)
Pool C prognosis: Good. A 9-1 SAA runner up will definitely be in play as will a 9-1 ASC runner up. Randolph-Macon could be very viable as the ODAC runner up, particularly if Catholic keeps winning.
Region 4 (Great Lakes-ish)
Conferences: HCAC, MIAA, NCAC, OAC
In 21 tournaments in the pools era, the OAC has been awarded a Pool C bid in 15 of those tournaments. Few things have been as automatic as a 9-1 OAC runner up being invited to the postseason; however, that particular streak stopped in 2019 when 9-1 John Carroll was left out. That goes to show how, with just five at-large bids available, even the teams that fans think are sure to get in, are never really sure to get in.
Baldwin Wallace appears to have the inside track to being a 9-1 OAC runner up and would be in the Pool C conversation should it finish with that record. The NCAC has secured three Pool C bids in its history, but the lack of signature wins in the non-conference schedule is a hindrance. Wabash and DePauw (both currently undefeated in Division III play), could potentially stay that way until the Monon Bell Classic on Nov. 13, with the loser being left to sweat out Selection Sunday, but it would be a very long shot for the NCAC runner up get one of the five at-large bids.
Games with Pool C implications: Baldwin Wallace at Ohio Northern (Nov. 6), John Carroll at Baldwin Wallace (Nov. 13), DePauw at Wabash (Nov. 13)
Pool C prognosis: Doesn’t look promising. Baldwin Wallace has the best chance and maybe the only real chance for a Pool C bid in this region.
Region 5 (Central-ish)
Conferences: ARC, CCIW, MWC, NACC
The CCIW and ARC have been awarded Pool C bids with some regularity, most notably the defending national champion North Central Cardinals in 2019. The MWC has only received one Pool C bid in its history while the NACC has never placed two teams in the postseason tournament.
Wheaton is likely to present a profile very similar to the one that North Central had in 2019, which was good enough to get in. It’s very hard to see a scenario where the selection committee would not place Wheaton in the tournament, but Wheaton will very much want to see a third CCIW team end up in the regional rankings for some primary criteria insurance. Who could that third CCIW team be? Washington U. just crept into the rankings in 2019 to give North Central the boost it needed to get in. This time around, Washington U. seems to be the most likely candidate, but their loss to Chicago (now in the same region) puts a pretty clear ceiling on where WashU can go in the rankings.
Speaking of Chicago, if the Maroons get to 9-1 with a win over WashU, they would present an interesting case as one of the teams that would end up in that last in/first out area. I’m not seeing many other viable candidates from Region 5. Dubuque upsetting Central would be about the only other scenario that would create a meaningful at-large candidate.
Games with Pool C implications: Carthage at Wheaton (Oct. 23), Dubuque at Central (Nov. 6)
Pool C prognosis: Great. If they can avoid a huge upset, Wheaton should be in the playoffs. They might not be the first team selected, but it’s hard to envision the national committee passing by Wheaton five times.
Region 6 (Midwest and West-ish)
Conferences: MIAC, NWC, SCIAC, UMAC, WIAC
In the pool era, these conferences have amassed 28 Pool C bids, plus a number of Pool B bids. The MIAC and WIAC consistently produce multiple playoff teams, and occasionally the NWC does as well. The way teams get ranked in this region will be important — we may well see a run of teams from this region in the at-large selection process, but not as many now the the ASC has been moved into Region 3.
The WIAC is one of two conferences that have placed multiple at-large teams into the same tournament (the other being the Empire 8), but with just five at-large bids available, it’s hard to see a path for more than the WIAC champ and their plus one. I’m keeping an eye on games between UW-Whitewater, UW-Oshkosh, and UW-La Crosse to see how the top of the WIAC will play out, but those teams would be wise to not look ahead — the best conference in Division III has received only eight Pool C bids in large part because it is so challenging to navigate this conference with one loss or less.
The MIAC’s new divisional format may actually prevent Bethel from being a solid Pool C candidate while St. John’s, should it drop the MIAC conference game to Bethel, would be a solid Pool C choice. The Week 1 win over Aurora will almost certainly provide the Johnnies with a regionally ranked win, should they need it for selection.
The SCIAC caught lightning in a bottle in 2019, but the conference lacks signature wins this season and doesn’t appear to have a Pool C candidate despite Cal Lutheran’s undefeated start. Should the Kingsmen slip in SCIAC play, I’m having a hard time placing them somewhere in this region’s rankings that gets them at-large consideration.
Games with Pool C implications: UW-Whitewater at UW-Oshkosh (Oct. 16), St. John’s at Gustavus Adolphus (Oct. 23), Pacific at Whitworth (Nov. 6), UW-La Crosse at UW-Whitewater (Nov. 6), MIAC Championship Game (Nov. 13)
Pool C Prognosis: Outstanding. I wouldn’t be surprised to see two or three of the five at-large bids coming from Region 6. How the Regional Advisory Committee ranks their teams will be important to how the at-large selection process ultimately plays out.
2,000 words into this column, I feel like a disclaimer saying that unpredictable things will happen between now and Week 11. We’ll see at-large hopes dashed with a major conference upset or two. We’ll see teams that seem safe now play their way out of the at-large conversation, and a team that I didn’t mention somewhere in this piece will make a run. That’s what makes the Division III regular season so special and that’s why we fire up the web streams every Saturday.
Rising/falling
Unsurprisingly this week’s big mover in the Top 25 was UW-La Crosse. The Eagles leveraged their win against UW-Oshkosh into a nine-position jump all the way up to No. 11. UW-Oshkosh reciprocated that gain with a nine-position fall to No. 18. The poll also saw the return of the SAA with both Trinity (Texas) and Birmingham-Southern entering the poll. As results come in from the competitive SAA, we’re seeing votes for the SAA teams consolidate. Barring upsets, we could be settling the SAA title on Nov. 6 between a pair of top-25 ranked teams.
On tap
Like all good teams, we here at D3football.com are at our best when we stay with the game plan. We’ve had two decades to nail down our weekly rundown. Here’s what you can watch for every week at D3football.com:
Tomorrow: Quick Hits featuring our panel’s predictions and insights into this weekend’s games
Saturday: Game day. Get thee to the scoreboard and feast.
Sunday: New Top 25 poll
Monday: Around The Nation podcast. Pat Coleman and Greg Thomas recap the weekend that was and preview the weekend to come in Division III football.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Team of the Week weekly honor roll, features columns
Thursday: Around the Nation column
Read options?
Small college football is actually pretty massive. Division III is home to 239 teams, many thousands of student-athletes and coaches. There are so many more stories out there than I can find on my own. Please share your stories that make Division III football so special for all of us! Reach out to me at greg.thomas@d3sports.com or on Twitter @wallywabash to share your stories.
