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| UW-La Crosse played St. Thomas and Mary Hardin-Baylor in the non-conference schedule. Photo by Cory Chuchna, d3photography.com |
By Ryan Tipps
D3sports.com
During the preseason, Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan put their heads together and came up with their predictions for which conferences are the nation’s strongest – and, likewise, which are the weakest. Now it’s my turn.
As Keith had done in years past while he was the Around the Nation columnist, I’m revisiting the rankings, now that we have the data from five weeks under our belts. Moreover, most every team has played through its nonconference schedule, so the likelihood that anything would change from here on out is limited (even if, say, Cortland State happened to upset Ithaca in the Cortaca Jug game).
Most of the moves were only a place or two, though some conference performances prompted bigger changes.
The method of analysis for this ranking is surely different from the preseason as my perspective and my valuations probably don’t align exactly with what Pat and Keith used. I’m sure some of you will agree with me and some will not. Regardless, here’s how I see it:
1. Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
Kickoff ranking: 1st of 27 conferences ranked
2014 nonconference record: 11-13
Most telling results: UW-Stevens Point 34, North Central 27; North Central 28, UW-Platteville 7
Verdict: UW-Stevens Point deserves a lot of credit for keeping the WIAC in the top spots. Just when I began to doubt the strength of the conference beyond Whitewater, UW-SP nabbed that marquee win that was elusive to Platteville and some of the teams now in the bottom of the pack. Usually I gauge a conference partly on beating the teams that it “should” be beating. But when so many opponents are in the Top 25, it makes it nearly impossible to reconcile those expectations with the reality of the WIAC’s schedule. The nonconference record isn’t great, but there’s context to that. Of the 13 losses, eight came against teams in the Top 25. Four others came against teams that aren’t Division III. So that leaves one loss to an opponent we’d expect the WIAC to be favored against, which was Simpson, a team that’s currently a crisp 3-1.
2. Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
Kickoff ranking: 3rd
2014 nonconference record: 12-5
Most telling results: St. Thomas 46, UW-La Crosse 0; Wartburg 31, Bethel 14
Verdict: The MIAC gets a large boost by having four teams in the Top 25 for the second week in a row. These kinds of situations, though, beg the question as to whether voters are picking four teams for the poll because there really is belief in the strength in the conference or if it’s happening because of voter indecision as to which MIAC teams are the best two or three. I think this year it’s genuine strength, since three MIAC teams in the poll have a conference loss and remain ranked. Not to mention that the only undefeated team in the conference, Gustavus Adolphus, isn’t one of those ranked teams, and the middle of the conference is pulling its weight.
3. Empire 8
Kickoff ranking: 2nd
2014 nonconference record: 14-2
Most telling results: St. John Fisher 36, Otterbein 14; Wesley 43, Salisbury 5
Verdict: There’s no question that the E8 did almost everything it needed to do to remain an elite conference. It can’t be blamed for slipping a spot as much as the MIAC can be lauded for placing so many teams in the rankings. A win against Otterbein is a quality one, but the OAC team doesn’t have the panache it did in year’s past. All in all, ranking the E8 so high in the preseason was a particularly smart pick by Pat and Keith.
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| Mount Union continues to dominate but the rest of the OAC hasn't had the postseason success it had a decade ago. Photo by Dan Poel, d3photography.com |
4. Ohio Athletic Conference
Kickoff ranking: 4th
2014 nonconference record: 7-3
Most telling results: Mount Union 58, Bethany 7; St. John Fisher 36, Otterbein 14
Verdict: Mount Union clearly stands out, and the OAC is almost always good for another team (or two) in the Top 25 poll, especially this early in the season. This year is no different in that respect. But what makes the analysis tough is that OAC teams play just one nonconference game each year – and we have to consider how big the dropoff is between the third or fourth team in the conference is the rest of the pack. The seven teams the OAC has beaten in nonconference play have a combined record of 10-21, with Mount Union victim Bethany accounting for four of those wins. There’s not much to show the conference as a whole should be elevated any higher than fourth.
5. American Southwest Conference
Kickoff ranking: 6th
2014 nonconference record: 16-11
Most telling results: Mary Hardin-Baylor 36, Redlands 0; Louisiana College 49, Huntingdon 42
Verdict: Mary Hardin-Baylor has been its usual dominant self, but unlike last season, it doesn’t have the national-landscape-affecting win over a team like Wesley on its resume. Still, what’s making the ASC stand out in 2014 is the meaty middle of the pack – though the prevalence of non-D-III opponents does make some of the success difficult to assess. At the bottom, Sul Ross State is continuing last year’s skid, but Louisiana College might be the biggest downward surprise, being only 2-3 so far this season. The SCAC’s Texas Lutheran accounts for four of the ASC’s losses, greatly affecting the way the nonconference outings tally up. This conference might have jumped as many as two spots if at least half of those games against TLU went the other direction. Instead, it rose only one place since the preseason.
6. College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
Kickoff ranking: 5th
2014 nonconference record: 12-12
Most telling results: North Central 28, UW-Platteville 7; Illinois Wesleyan 42, Franklin 35; UW-Stevens Point 34, North Central 27
Verdict: The CCIW is a perennial powerhouse, no question about that. But Wheaton’s lack of dominance over an 0-4 Kalamazoo, the seeming drop in Illinois Wesleyan’s play without its starting quarterback and North Park going winless in nonconference play for the first time in the D3football.com era suggest that the CCIW is taking a step back from where they were predicted to be in the preseason. North Central’s loss to a WIAC team was the biggest setback for the conference on the national stage, but with the WIAC’s prestige, it’s not a deal-breaker for the capabilities or potential of the conference. The sixth spot is nothing to be disappointed about.
7. Northwest Conference
Kickoff ranking: 7th
2014 nonconference record: 9-8
Most telling results: Linfield 21, Chapman 14; Dubuque 16, Pacific 10
Verdict: As in many years past, this is where the true upper crust of Division III ends. Teams that make deep playoff runs and that, top to bottom, can generally be competitive against much of the rest of the nation come from these conferences. An outsized number of nonconference games are played against the SCIAC, and, predictably, the top half of the NWC won most of theirs while the bottom half of the NWC lost most. A year after going 7-3, Pacific is a tricky one to peg, first having given Dubuque its only win of the season but then taking down in-conference opponent Whitworth. Plus we have to consider George Fox, which after more than four decades is back at it playing varsity football, which accounts for some of the nonconference losses and does affect the NWC’s efforts toward overtaking the spot above held by the CCIW.
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| Coe beat its archrival, Cornell, and lost to Wheaton in non-conference play. Photo by Ryan Coleman, d3photography.com |
8. Iowa Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
Kickoff ranking: 8th
2014 nonconference record: 15-9
Most telling results: Wartburg 31, Bethel 14; Simpson 13, Illinois Wesleyan 3; Wheaton 36, Coe 28
Verdict: Wartburg has been the stunning showcase team of the Iowa conference this season, while Luther is on track to have its best season in at least half a decade. And every team in the conference won at least one nonconference game. There really is a lot to be proud of in the IIAC. Still, a lot of the wins come against teams from some of the weaker conferences, affecting how much on the strength scale they can be credited for their play.
9. Liberty League
Kickoff ranking: 13th
2014 nonconference record: 14-8
Most telling results: Hobart 28, Endicott 18; Utica 23, Union 16
Verdict: D3football.com executive editor Pat Coleman is fond of saying, “It’s not who you lost to, it’s who you beat.” I get that, and he makes a valid point. But I can’t say that I observe that mantra to the letter. I will readily reward teams that play well yet lose against what I believe to be much superior opponents. On several occasions, the Liberty League showed it can compete against top teams in the elite Empire 8. An 0-4 Union barely lost to Ithaca; Union also fared well against Utica; and RPI nearly edged Alfred. In fact, only one nonconference loss came by a margin of more than seven points. And at the top of the league is Hobart, whose top-notch defense has helped it climb into eighth on D3football.com’s poll. If only one of those games against the Empire 8 had gone the other way, the LL would be putting a lot more distance between it and the Centennial, which is one spot below. Regardless, the Liberty is a big mover on this list.
10. Centennial Conference
Kickoff ranking: 10th
2014 nonconference record: 7-3
Most telling results: Johns Hopkins 42, Randolph-Macon 3; Bridgewater 33, Gettysburg 32
Verdict: Like the Liberty League, this is another case of just-missed opportunities. Of the three nonconference losses, one was a 12-point difference against the No. 8 team in the nation and another was a one-point margin against an undefeated Bridgewater. Couple that with a No. 9-ranked Johns Hopkins squad and a 5-0 Ursinus and 4-1 Muhlenberg, and the Centennial is deep and dangerous conference for which parity has long been an accurate descriptor.
11. Old Dominion Athletic Conference
Kickoff ranking: 9th
2014 nonconference record: 17-8
Most telling results: Hampden-Sydney 35, Christopher Newport 30; Guilford 52, Methodist 20; Wabash 34, Hampden-Sydney 21
Verdict: The ODAC regularly comes through its nonconference slate with an impressive record, but teams in this conference rarely venture particularly high up the food chain. This means that we don’t seem them landing any national cage-rattling wins, but they also become adept at taking care of business against teams they should be beating (or, at least, be very competitive with). Moreover, every team except for 0-4 Washington and Lee has tasted victory more than once, and that depth highlights exactly the kind of thing that appeals in a conference ranking. If you read Kickoff, it comes as no surprise that Hampden-Sydney and Guilford are having good seasons driven by their offenses. More impressive, though, is how well Bridgewater and Emory and Henry are doing, boasting undefeated records after projections of them finishing close to the bottom of the standings. Those things are big factors.
12. Middle Atlantic Conference
Kickoff ranking: 11th
2014 nonconference record: 5-5
Most telling results: Widener 17, Rowan 7; Muhlenberg 34, Wilkes 0
Verdict: The top is hot; the bottom is not. Two MAC teams are in the Top 20, while another is among the vote-getters. The MAC, like the OAC and CC, has just one nonconference game, making measurement of its strength less than ideal. Many of the MAC’s wins come against NJAC teams, and while the Centennial owns a 3-1 edge against the MAC, not a single win from either side of the matchups has come against one of the top teams in the other conference. More data would be helpful. Despite the teams that are in the poll, not a single win jumps out as overwhelmingly convincing of this conference’s ability to compete. We’ll have to wait for the postseason to see that happen.
13. Presidents’ Athletic Conference
Kickoff ranking: 14th
2014 nonconference record: 8-10
Most telling results: Washington and Jefferson 51, Wooster 17; Wesley 35, Thomas More 20
Verdict: There’s still time to improve upon this nonconference record, as incoming PAC members Carnegie Mellon and Case Western Reserve have yet to play their former UAA football compatriots. Or, of course, the record could get worse. The conference is loaded with the three usual suspects – W&J, Thomas More and Waynesburg – at the top, along with Bethany, a 4-1 team whose only loss is to Mount Union. Much of the rest of the PAC, though, couldn’t get much going in nonconference play. The dropoff between the MAC and the PAC is big enough to suggest that this is the start of the next tier of the conference rankings.
14. New Jersey Athletic Conference
Kickoff ranking: 12th
2014 nonconference record: 8-14
Most telling results: Rowan 31, Framingham State 21; Buffalo State 51, Cortland State 48 OT
Verdict: The woes of Cortland State have been all over the place this year. One of the most impressive NJAC teams of the past decade has begun the year at 0-4, a record shared by league newcomer Southern Virginia. Meanwhile, no team in the NJAC made it through nonconference play unscathed. Having UW-Whitewater, Mary Hardin-Baylor and Welsey on the schedule has been nice for a go-get-‘em mentality, but it hasn’t come close to paying off on the scoreboard.
15. North Coast Athletic Conference
Kickoff ranking: 16th
2014 nonconference record: 5-5
Most telling results: Wabash 34, Hampden-Sydney 21; Washington and Jefferson 51, Wooster 17
Verdict: When Hiram is winning games (yes, plural), you know this is an up year for the NCAC. But more than that, Wabash knocked off a then-ranked Hampden-Sydney team in Week 1, and DePauw is showing the most life it’s had since it was a member of the SCAC. But even when we see the bottom half of the conference winning here and there, it’s still not a conference that flexes a lot of muscle overall. Wittenberg again used its nonconference opportunity to play outside of Division III, and the only win between Oberlin and Kenyon is when the latter beat the former.
16. Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association
Kickoff ranking: 17th
2014 nonconference record: 12-10
Most telling results: Adrian 40, Carthage 14; Wheaton 26, Kalamazoo 12
Verdict: The MIAA has gotten good at picking off the low-hanging fruit of the HCAC and NACC. Those are games that the Michigan conference should win. Beyond that, though, the challenge with the CCIW has been a healthy one for boosting the conference and getting it exposure to tougher teams. Get better among better teams. It’s not something that will pay off immediately, but with Olivet again earning a few wins in nonconference play, and Trine continuing to win in that regard, too, then there will be opportunity for the MIAA to really turn a corner in the next couple of years.
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| Cal Lutheran has slid back into the pack in the SCIAC. Photo by Dan Harris, d3photography.com |
17. Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
Kickoff ranking: 19th
2014 nonconference record: 5-11
Most telling results: Chapman 49, Whitworth 34; Austin 21, Occidental 12
Verdict: The significant backstory here is that two losses have come at the hands of Linfield, one to Pacific Lutheran and one to the Mary Hardin-Baylor buzz saw. Two of those games were close. Were the conference sitting at 7-9, it would be a spot or two higher (probably two). As predicted by Keith in the preseason, Chapman could be the real deal, which is worth a lot as Cal Lutheran starts its second year as a middler rather than a leader.
18. Southern Athletic Association
Kickoff ranking: 18th
2014 nonconference record: 12-11
Most telling results: Berry 29, Washington U. 23; East Texas Baptist 68, Millsaps 15
Verdict: Big kudos to the SAA for being on the up side of .500 in nonconference play. Hendrix continues to be a modern model of startup success, beginning the year undefeated. Centre and Rhodes also began their years 4-0. So there’s plenty of teams picking up where former conference power Millsaps is slumping. Even Berry notched its first win since starting play in 2013 – and that didn’t come at the expense of a little-known football team but rather against a legit Washington U. program.
19. USA South Athletic Conference
Kickoff ranking: 15th
2014 nonconference record: 7-11
Most telling results: Hampden-Sydney 35, Christopher Newport 30; Louisiana College 49, Huntingdon 42
Verdict: The conference really missed out on its chance to make some noise, and the ODAC reaped the benefits. Losses by the two top USAC teams to the two top ODAC hurt the conference’s standing, but moreover, none of the wins so far have come against teams that have more than one victory on their records. Even Averett’s season-opening win over Washington and Lee has lost its luster as the Generals limp to 0-4. So I’m almost forced to rate this conference more on the narrowness of its losses rather than on the quality of its wins. And for that reason, it slips. As quarterback-heavy as the conference is (Max Reber, Graham Craig, Ryan Throndset and Evan Pittenger among the best in the area), I expected the USA South to climb rather than slip this year.
20. Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference
Kickoff ranking: 20th
2014 nonconference record: 10-9
Most telling results: Texas Lutheran 38, Louisiana College 32; Pacific Lutheran 38, Trinity 14
Verdict: Texas Lutheran is picking up where it left off from last season, and that’s helping to keep the torn-asunder, four-team SCAC in the discussion. Even Austin has an above .500 record, and Southwestern recorded its first modern-era win. All of that is weighed down by Trinity, which is just 1-4, with that lone win coming in a too-close-for-comfort game against Sul Ross State. Losing to Willamette and Pacific Lutheran can be understandable, but Trinity hasn’t been showing itself to be playing at the next level. If that changes, we’ll see the ranking change.
21. Midwest Conference
Kickoff ranking: 22nd
2014 nonconference record: 11-10 (counting only teams outside the MWC)
Most telling results: Monmouth 28, Central 21; Rose-Hulman 74, Illinois College 68, 3OT
Verdict: The two divisions of the MWC means the teams get a lot of games under their belt before they face teams inside their divisions. What stands out are wins against Central, Carthage and the bottom rung MIAC teams, but against better competition like North Central, Gustavus Adolphus and Luther, it just isn’t close. Many of the wins come against NACC teams, which based on them being further down in this ranking, we should expect the MWC to be winning regularly. But swap in a conference like the CCIW or IIAC more regularly, and we’d see that nonconference record take a tumble. The MWC starts what is likely the final tier of these conference rankings.
22. Massachusetts State Collegiate Athletic Conference
Kickoff ranking: 23rd
2014 nonconference record: 11-7
Most telling results: Framingham State 20, Endicott 17; Western New England 17, Westfield State 14
Verdict: The MASCAC teams fared decently but not great in general against ECFC and NEFC teams. But the MASCAC did emerge from it all with an above-.500 record. Teams from the E8, NJAC and LL all won against the MASCAC. Overall, however, more than half of the nonconference games were separated by 10 points or less. There was lots of potential for the pendulum to swing the other way.
23. Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference
Kickoff ranking: 21st
2014 nonconference record: 4-14
Most telling results: Rose-Hulman 74, Illinois College 68, 3OT; Illinois Wesleyan 42, Franklin 35
Verdict: Conference favorite Franklin is no longer a national favorite for the Top 25, and that hurts the HCAC’s standing. The fact that a Manchester team not known as a conference kingpin narrowly missed beating Franklin this past weekend suggests that even the top of the HCAC is down this season. There have been too many blowouts and too few wins to push the conference higher than this.
24. New England Football Conference
Kickoff ranking: 24th
2014 nonconference record: 9-12
Most telling results: Western New England 38, Springfield 34; Hobart 28, Endicott 18
Verdict: Curry, the only NEFC team to have won a playoff game since the 1999 postseason expansion, is now the only team not to have gotten a nonconference victory in 2014. But that’s not to say the conference is out of sorts. Western New England has been carrying the torch with some good wins, and MIT also boasts an undefeated record. Postseason performance is really what can set the conference apart, and we have a few weeks yet before we know how that plays out.
25. Eastern Collegiate Football Conference
Kickoff ranking: 26th
2014 nonconference record: 6-16
Most telling results: Norwich 10, St. Lawrence 7; Shenandoah 20, Gallaudet 0
Verdict: The season started with a 1-7 weekend and just never really got much better from there. Gallaudet doesn’t have the same punch as last season, and Norwich, too, has fallen to the middle of the pack but has the best win of the bunch. Castleton State, showing marked improvement from where it finished in 2013, might be leading the pack, but the Spartans don’t appear to be the long-term leaders the conference needs to help it rise up and overtake a few others at a time.
26. Northern Athletics Collegiate Conference
Kickoff ranking: 25th
2014 nonconference record: 4-17
Most telling results: Concordia (Wis.) 31, North Park 28; Central 31, Benedictine 7
Verdict: The record says it all here. Concordia (Wis.), Benedictine, Rockford and Wisconsin Lutheran are the only teams with nonconference wins. But it’s perhaps that I had high hopes for Benedictine to have a breakthrough season, something reminiscent to 2010, that now hints that the conference isn’t quite clicking this year. The AQ winner of this group has No. 8 seed written all over it come playoff time.
27. Upper Midwest Athletic Conference
Kickoff ranking: 27th
2014 nonconference record: 3-7
Most telling results: Northwestern 17, St. Olaf 16; Millikin 66, Greenville 24
Verdict: The UMAC tends to struggle against the bottom of other conferences. Only one team brought more than 95 players into camp, so sheer numbers is certainly an issue that hampers how competitive the conference can be. But (and this goes for every team in every conference on this list) no matter where your conference is ranked, I hope that every player is proud of being a part of their team, because there are so many intangibles to taking the field that are at least as important as winning a game or beating a ranked team or making the playoffs. Every coach, from the top to the bottom, will talk about the life lessons of collegiate football and the unique experience that Division III provides. And every one of those coaches would be right.
Unranked: The New England Small College Athletic Conference, which does not play any games against nonconference competition and therefore provides no means for comparison. As Independents are not a conference, they are also not ranked. The University Athletic Association, now that half of its members have entered other conferences, and the rest will next year, is not ranked as a separate entity either.
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Want to weigh in? I can be reached over email or on Twitter at @NewsTipps. Or you can use the comments section below.
