By Don Stoner
Augsburg Sports Information Director
MINNEAPOLIS -- Since the beginning of the football season, small-college fans have had Nov. 6 circled on their calendars. In what could be considered the biggest game not only in the Midwest, but in the entire nation in Division III football, Central travels to Waverly, Iowa, on Saturday at 1 p.m. CST to take on Wartburg in a game that will decide at least a share of the Iowa Intercollegiate Athletic Conference championship.
There probably won't be a more important game in the nation this season in Division III -- multiple national playoff berths could be decided, the winner of the game will remain in the Top 10 nationally, and the loser will be in for a dogfight next week to remain in the hunt for one of the "Pool C" bids for the national tournament.
"A lot of people are saying this week's game is the conference championship, but that's not quite true," said Central coach Rich Kacmarynski. "There's a lot at stake, but that's true every week. Every game, in a sense, has been for the conference championship. This one is no different."
As the season has progressed, the two 8-0 teams have developed into powerful forces on both sides of the football. No. 4 Central has one of the top defenses in the nation. No. 9 Wartburg has an incredibly powerful offense. Which will prevail?
"Central isn't doing anything different," said Wartburg coach Rick Willis. "They are playing the same way as they have in the past. They run to the ball well, and they are physical. They aren't fancy. They have a system they believe in and execute very well."
Central's passing defense -- first in the nation, allowing just 117.5 passing yards per game -- will be tested by Wartburg quarterback Matt Wheeler, who is leading an offense that is averaging 448 yards per game. Wheeler has thrown for 1,914 yards with 21 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. Central has picked off a league-high 20 passes and Steve Perkins leads the IIAC with 10 sacks this year.
"We lead the nation (in pass defense), but that's somewhat of an artifact of the fact that we haven't gone against any really prolific pass offenses yet," Kacmarynski said. "But our pass defense is continuing to mature and our pass rush is improving as well. I've been very pleased."
Wheeler's favorite target, Ryan Rausch, is averaging 108 receiving yards per contest. Last week, in a 33-13 win against Coe, Rausch caught nine passes for 237 yards and three touchdowns. While those numbers probably won't be repeated against Central, Rausch remains one of the biggest threats on the field. And by the way, Rausch also is among the top kick returners around.
"As good of a receiver as he is, he may be an even better kick returner," Kacmarynski said. "We've got to try to prevent him from making big plays."
But as much as the Central defense-vs.-Wartburg offense is the primary focus of everyone's attention this week, the battle in the other direction is just as appealing. Wartburg has improved its defense -- rated third in the high-powered IIAC with 289.3 yards per game -- including a solid 109.4 yards per game rushing defense average. Anthony Souhrada leads the IIAC in tackles for loss (20) and is third in sacks (8).
The Knights will meet a Dutch offense that is averaging 232 rushing yards per game -- 100.9 from running back Aaron Aeschliman, pounding out a steady 4.7 yards-per-carry average. Meanwhile, the Dutch have improved their passing, especially with everyone healthy in the past few weeks. Junior quarterback Scott Koerselman missed most of four games this year with injuries, but has been the steady starter in recent weeks, averaging 152.6 passing yards per game and recording a sterling 147.74 quarterback efficiency rating - second to Wheeler's 158.17 in the league.
"I think our defense has made very good progress," Wartburg's Willis said. "Central has outstanding balance. A lot of people assume they're just a running team, but that's not the case. They have guys who are stepping up and making plays."
Of course, after this game, both teams still have tough foes in the final week of the regular season. Central will host Buena Vista (currently 7-1 with a game against 3-5 Coe on Saturday), and Wartburg will play at Upper Iowa (currently 5-3 with a game at 3-6 William Penn on Saturday).
Midwest's playoff picture complicated
Sure, expanding from 16 to 28 teams was supposed to make the national playoffs much clearer, right? With two games remaining in the regular season, the playoff picture for Midwest teams remains as cloudy now as it ever has been.
This much is clear -- the winners of the Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Midwest and CCIW will get automatic bids. But there are still a bunch of teams that could get into the 28-team picture, and four conferences can make legitimate claims about claiming the four "Pool C" bids that will go to second-place teams nationally.
Pat Coleman -- the expert (I have to write that, since he's the guy who runs the site) -- has his most recent playoff prognostications posted, and they seem to jive with my predictions. Frankly, I think Wartburg and Central have probably locked up playoff positions if both win their final game. It would be hard to keep a 9-1 team out of the playoffs.
If 5-3 Wisconsin-La Crosse clinches the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference title and the automatic bid, as expected this week against 3-5 Wisconsin-Oshkosh, the pressure will be on 7-1 Wisconsin-Stevens Point -- with its loss to La Crosse -- to win its last two games, against 2-6 Wisconsin-Eau Claire this week and at the Metrodome on Sunday, Nov. 14 at 2:30 p.m. against Division II Northern State.
Complicating matters in that scenario -- the Division III national playoff bids will have been announced an hour before the kickoff of the Metrodome game. But I expect that Stevens Point will get a Pool C bid if La Crosse wins the title and the automatic berth.
Pat has it right about the Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference. It's a mess. I'd guess that only St. John's and Concordia-Moorhead have shots at the playoffs. St. John's (7-1), with a win over Concordia under its belt and its only loss to Bethel, should get in with wins against Carleton this week and Gustavus next Friday at the Metrodome.
Concordia's case at 6-2 might be just as strong. Only one loss to a D-III opponent (St. John's) and its 44-0 loss to Division II Moorhead State on Sept. 4 a distant memory. The Cobbers finish up with 5-3 St. Thomas Friday night at the Fargodome, and 5-3 Augsburg next Friday at the Metrodome. Yes, 6-2 Bethel, 6-2 Gustavus and St. Thomas still have mathematical shots to win the league title, but each has two losses to Division III foes, and could only get in with the AQ.
St. Norbert (7-1) will clinch a berth by winning the Midwest Conference -- either with a win this week against Beloit or next week against Illinois College. Could a case be made for Ripon at 6-2? Possibly, but it'd be quite a reach -- especially with a season-opening 18-6 loss to 1-6 Elmhurst on the docket. The Midwest might have to be content to get its first national tourney berth since 1993.
The picture may be a lot clearer for the College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin. Wheaton (7-0) controls its own destiny -- defeat 1-6 Elmhurst and 6-1 Augustana and it's in with the AQ. Augustana still has a shot at the playoffs, but a win against Wheaton in the final week of the season to clinch the CCIW's AQ would cloud the issue even further. Would two 8-1 CCIW teams make the playoffs? The conventional wisdom says no. But of course, we're dealing with NCAA bids, which are often unconventional.
Aurora is 7-1 overall and 6-0 in the Illini-Badger, which might mean a possible Pool B bid. The one loss, to CCIW contender Millikin, came in the second week, and Aurora faces Lakeland this week and I-AA Valparaiso in the last week of the season. It might be difficult for the Spartans to reach the playoffs.
Sure, the regional rankings are dead. But the regional advisory committees still meet from week to week, and will provide the national committee with key advice on seeding and Pool C and Pool B selections going into the Nov. 14 meeting. Here's one man's opinion of the top seven teams in the West Region (that includes the Northwest Conference and doesn't include the CCIW or IBFC), probably the best region of the four nationally:
1. Central/Wartburg winner
2. St. John's
3. Wisconsin-Stevens Point
4. St. Norbert
5. Central/Wartburg loser
6. Concordia-Moorhead
7. Wisconsin-La Crosse
Pacific Lutheran should get a Pool B bid.
Ripon's offense is outstanding
Props to Ripon's offense. The Red Hawks rolled over Illinois College 65-28 last Saturday, and very nearly set a Division III record for total offense. Ripon put up some awesome numbers, 815 in all -- 461 rushing yards, 354 passing -- to come within eight yards of Westminster's record of 823, set last season.
Two running backs rushed for more than 150 yards -- Troy DeVoe for 167 on 11 carries and three touchdowns, Luke Hagel for 156 yards on five carries (30.8 yards per rush) and two scores, including an 82-yard scamper. Joe Rettler caught five passes for 184 yards and two scores -- 68 and 80 yards each.
Meanwhile, IC's offense put together a 464-yard afternoon in a losing effort. How's 1,279 yards of total offense in one afternoon?
This column is drawn from a variety of sources, including the outstanding work and research of sports information directors from Division III schools all over the Midwest.
