By Pat Cummings
D3sports.com
Automatic bids are being clinched, bubble teams are scanning the scoreboard page to determine if they have a chance, and what they could possibly expect from the tournament committee. While we are still two weeks away from Selection Sunday, it's never too early to think about the biggest postseason in college football history.
Centennial Conference
Staring its first postseason berth in the face, Johns Hopkins bumbled its opportunity as Ursinus rallied from a 17-7 deficit to knockoff the previously undefeated Blue Jays, 21-17. Overall, it was a stunning game.
JHU was at home, holding a ticket to the postseason with a 60-minute effort against Ursinus. With 6:42 to play in the second stanza, Hopkins opened up a ten-point lead. It would be the last time they scored. Ursinus' Vince Gallagher completed 22 of 35 passes for 274 yards and three touchdowns to propel the Bears to another narrow victory. As mentioned last week, all eight of Ursinus' games have been decided by eight points or fewer, while all four of their wins have come by four points or fewer.
Overall, Ursinus passed for 301 yards, the most allowed by a Blue Jays defense since Oct. 11, 2003 against Franklin and Marshall, when JHU gave up 306. The 21 points allowed were the most this season by the much respected Hopkins defense. The last time JHU allowed an opponent more than 21 points in the regular season was Oct. 19, 2002.
So where do we stand?
The uber-tiebreaker from 2004 will not rear its ugly head in 2005 despite the jumble amongst the CC standings. Last year, five teams tied for the conference championship, requiring four tiebreakers to be used. From the CC's home office in Lancaster, Pa., here are the playoff scenarios:
If Ursinus wins its final two games at home against Franklin & Marshall this week and at Dickinson next week, while Hopkins loses at McDaniel two weeks from now, Ursinus wins the automatic qualifier. Any other scenario gives the Centennial to Johns Hopkins. The Blue Jays travel to Hampden-Sydney this week for a solid non-conference tussle this weekend and then finish up with their classic rivalry against McDaniel.
Frankly, I'll believe anything when it comes to the Centennial. The CC is more mind-boggling than the MAC has been in recent years, which is saying something. I really didn't expect to see McDaniel and Muhlenberg at the bottom of the CC standings, but with two weeks left in the season, those are the only two teams with three conference losses. Having followed CC football for the past eight years, it is shocking. Go figure.
The CC has no chance at a Pool C (at-large) bid in the playoffs if Hopkins wins the championship. With a relatively weak non-conference schedule, JHU would find themselves on a precarious bubble if they don't get the bid.
Middle Atlantic Conference
Delaware Valley clinches the MAC this Saturday with a win at Juniata. Should the Aggies lose, they would need a win against Widener to secure a bid to the postseason. Suffice it to say that should Juniata knock off the Aggies, it would be the biggest upset of the last few seasons. That being said, let's talk about the Pool C chances of other MAC teams.
Wilkes and Widener remain alive with chances at the field of 32, albeit slim chances. The Colonels have one MAC loss, to Delaware Valley, but a brutally depressing loss to William Paterson. Sporting a 3-5 record, the Pioneers of WPU dramatically hurt Wilkes's strength of schedule as its only non-conference opponent. I have a difficult time believing that the playoff committee will take them over other two-loss teams, when the losses came against significantly better competition. The best thing Wilkes has going for itself is that its other loss came to Delaware Valley.
Widener has two losses in the MAC with their two toughest games ahead of them, a non-conference event at Salisbury and then at Del Val. The notches in the loss column came to Wilkes and King's, both on the road. Another Widener loss and consideration of the playoffs is not a possibility. Two wins against two teams with winning records could help the cause.
The bottom line is this: The MAC isn't respected enough to get a two-loss team a Pool C bid. Back in 2002, Widener and King's tied for the MAC crown and King's earned the automatic bid. The Pioneers ended up with a 9-1 record with their only loss coming to the playoff-bound Monarchs and still didn't get into the big dance. They probably would have if the field size was up to 32, but with two losses, it seems unlikely.
Regardless, Delaware Valley seems poised to get the job done at Juniata, clinching another postseason spot.
Old Dominion Athletic Conference
Bridgewater eked out a win at Washington and Lee and clinched a playoff bid thanks to wins by Emory and Henry and Guilford over the other two teams remaining on BC's schedule which had two ODAC losses, Catholic and Randolph-Macon.
Guilford's win against the Yellow Jackets was the Quakers' first back-to-back wins since 2002, and more specifically, their first consecutive ODAC wins since Sept. 19 and 26, 1998 with wins over Washington and Lee and Hampden-Sydney.
Meanwhile, Don Montgomery got his first head coaching victory with a 24-21 win over Catholic. Catholic led by 11 with ten minutes remaining when Todd Woods found Brennan Stewart for a 62-yard touchdown pass. E&H had two timeouts remaining, but pass-happy Catholic threw two incompletions with less than three minutes to play and leading by five, holding the ball in their own territory. Bryan Furr then intercepted John Jacobs and took it to the house to put the Wasps on top.
Hampden-Sydney has two losses this season to Bridgewater and Washington & Lee. With a non-conference game at home against Johns Hopkins, the Tigers are in a must-win situation to sandbag their porous hopes for a Pool C playoff bid. H-SC has seen the bubble burst for what feels like an eternity, or a career for J.D. Ricca, and chances of an additional bid to the ODAC seems incredibly unlikely considering all else that's out in D3-land.
The MIAC, CCIW, IIAC, ASC, SCAC, OAC, Empire 8, and Liberty League would all seem to be higher in the Pool C pecking order than the ODAC or Centennial as each of those conferences has two teams with zero or one loss at the moment.
USA South Athletic Conference
The steady flow of emails from Ferrum fans has slowed to a trickle as the season wanes. If you were curious, the Panthers have been on my ballot for the past few weeks. Ranked recognition from the coaches poll plus a win over a solid Methodist squad may have tempered some of the "disrespecting" Panthers fans far and wide were claiming. Bickering aside, last week's 55-0 win over Greensboro was one of their most impressive victories of the season.
Why you ask?
Well, for the first time since Week 1, the Ferrum defense dug in against any opponent. The 26 points allowed to Chowan, 40 points to Averett, and 34 to Maryville were less than inspiring for the national voters. The Panthers were simply outscoring their competition. While the Greensboro Pride don't inspire an offensive cavalcade, those in attendance witnessed a rarity for the 2005 season.
Ferrum remains in control of their own destiny, in search of their first postseason bid in, what we should begin calling the growing playoff calendar, "the modern era." A win at North Carolina Wesleyan this weekend would throw the Panthers to 9-0 with senior day at home against Christopher Newport looming on the horizon. In light of what Guilford has done (nearly beat H-SC), and almost done (beat W&L one week before a big game with Bridgewater), the Panthers can't look past a sprite ground attack from the Battling Bishops.
Should Ferrum get past NCWC and defeat CNU, the USAC will be Ferrum-tastic. CNU's only loss in conference is to Methodist, while Ferrum holds a win over Methodist. Should the Captains and Monarchs win out, each of the three would have one conference loss. Here is the official word from the USAC office:
If CNU, Ferrum, and Methodist end up with one conference loss, the order of tiebreakers to determine the automatic qualifier is as follows:
1. Head-to-head competition (this would be a wash)
2. Record against the other teams in the USAC (again, a tie, as their only losses were shared to each other).
3. Record against common opponents (the only common opponents are their conference games)
4. Coin toss
Yes, that's right. If the above scenario plays out, there will be a playoff series of coin tosses to determine the playoff representative. Rough. But considering what happened in the Centennial last year, I rather have it come down to a coin toss than the result of the Union/Rochester game and its impact on strength of schedule.
Vogelbach and Ricca blazing new 'ground'
We mentioned the passing exploits of Guilford's Josh Vogelbach last week and another spectacular week got me thinking about Vogelbach's impact on the record books. With two games left on the docket, the East Carolina transfer from North Fort Myers, Fla., is in fact, writing history.
Vogelbach surpassed Mount Union's Bill Borchert for most touchdown passes thrown by a freshman. Through just eight games, Vogelbach has 28 compared to Borchert's 26. Juniata's Greg Troutman is the recordholder for most passing yards by a frosh, at 2,799, and 228 completions as a freshman in 2001. Vogelbach needs just 272 yards and 28 completions to surpass those marks. Considering he is averaging almost 316 yards per game, it shouldn't be all that difficult.
None of the Quakers who have caught one of Vogelbach's touchdowns is a senior, so Kevin Kiesel's gang have much to look forward to in 2006, not to mention a chance to finish the season 5-5.
Vogelbach and his supporting cast could help Kiesel build an ODAC contender. A late Hampden-Sydney touchdown kept the Quakers from beating two of the ODAC's three best squads this season.
Mark Simon featured the Ricca brothers earlier this season: H-SC's senior quarterback J.D. and Catholic freshman Keith. Were it not for Vogelbach, Ricca's season would be tops for youngsters in the ODAC. The two look like they may be sharing the race to break some D-III freshman passing records.
Through eight games, and while sharing time with sophomore John Jacobs, Ricca has completed 22 touchdown passes and racked up more yards than Vogelbach, with 2,576. The race seems to be on for these two, who, if they both stay healthy (and at their respective institutions), will be comparing stat sheets for the next three seasons.
Good luck to both in their future record-breaking. At this pace, both are expected to average over 12,000 passing yards for their careers, putting both signal callers well into the top ten of all time.
Washington watch
Bridgewater senior running back Marcus Washington managed a mere 33 rushing yards against Washington & Lee last weekend in BC's 17-14 win. Overall, such a performance is a dramatic outlier in what has been a highly productive season.
My Mid-Atlantic Region Top 3
Delaware Valley
Bridgewater
Ferrum
Obviously, a few changes to this weekly standard. First, I clarified the title of the ranking. After some confusion relayed in some reader emails, it should be clear that these regional rankings are my own opinion, and not the NCAA's regional rankings. Normally, I outline the Top 5. Well, to be honest, I don't think any other squad deserves to be listed here this week. Hopkins lost on their home turf to an Ursinus team that is eight points away from being 0-8. The AFCA poll was ridiculously overweighting JHU's 7-0 start, as mentioned in the column last week, and sure enough, the Blue Jays fell.
What to watch in week 10
Watch everything. It's that time of the season.
