By Pat Cummings
D3sports.com
McDaniel's surprising 20-7 loss at Franklin and Marshall has knocked the Centennial championship wide open as each team now has at least one loss.
"I think that's a huge boost, not just for the team, but for the school," Diplomats second-year coach Shawn Halloran, a Boston College graduate, told the Lancaster (Pa.) Sunday News in response to the upset win.
The win now sends the CC into a free-for-all with two games left for four teams and Muhlenberg wrapping up its conference schedule this week.
Muhlenberg and McDaniel have one conference loss, both at the hands of F&M. Either Muhlenberg or McDaniel will have a second conference loss after their matchup this week, which is the conference finale for the Mules. The Mules control their own destiny; a win over McDaniel in Westminster will clinch the conference.
Should McDaniel rebuff the Mules, the Green Terror control their own destiny, requiring a win at Johns Hopkins on Nov. 13. If this scenario plays out and the Blue Jays defeat McDaniel and Dickinson and F&M win their final two games, everyone will enjoy sorting the five-way tie atop the CC as all involved would be 4-2.
A Muhlenberg win will make the following analysis moot. All the more reason to go over this, again, while it remains a possibility.
If:
- McDaniel defeats Muhlenberg this week, AND
- Dickinson and Franklin & Marshall both win their two remaining games, both against Gettysburg and Ursinus, AND
- Johns Hopkins defeats McDaniel next week, THEN
There would be a five-way tie for the Centennial championship with Dickinson, F&M, JHU, McDaniel, and Muhlenberg all sitting with 4-2 conference records.
Just another reason to mourn the loss of Swarthmore, which could have helped break some things up.
Head-to-head competition is the first tiebreaker.
Dickinson is 2-2 against the tied teams (wins vs. F&M and JHU)
F&M is 2-2 (wins vs. McDaniel and Muhlenberg)
JHU would be 2-2 (wins vs. F&M and McDaniel)
McDaniel would be 2-2 (wins vs. Dickinson and Muhlenberg)
Muhlenberg would be 2-2 (wins vs. Dickinson and JHU)
Each of these teams' losses have come against each other, so their record versus the remaining conference teams, Gettysburg and Ursinus, is useless
The strength of schedule index, using the NCAA Championship Committee formula is the fourth tie-breaker. Granted, the formula is only valid through this week's games, but here is how the teams are ranked for now.
59th Dickinson = 9.333
62nd McDaniel = 9.143
62nd Muhlenberg = 9.143
67th Johns Hopkins = 8.857
72nd Franklin & Marshall = 8.667
Considering there are 217 total rankings, these five remain tightly bunched. Who knows how it is going to go, but it is fun to consider the possibilities.
My prediction: McDaniel will beat Muhlenberg this week. Dickinson and F&M will win out. After that, history says Hopkins has McDaniel's number. The Green Terror have not beaten the Blue Jays since 2000. The multi-tiebreaker may in fact be necessary using past performances to judge what could happen in two weeks.
Dickinson and F&M can do little to impact its SOS since they play the two
worst teams in the conference. The Red Devils and Diplomats could each earn a total of 17 points with wins against Ursinus and G-burg, which would lower their average.
McDaniel could earn 14 points with a win at home versus Muhlenberg and 7 points with a loss at Johns Hopkins, raising its average slightly.
Hopkins earns 14 points win a win versus McDaniel plus either 14 or 6 points based on a win or loss this week at home against Hampden-Sydney.
Muhlenberg's SOS is affected by its non-conference matchup with Moravian, a team above .667. A win garners 15 points, a loss is worth 7 points. If they lose to McDaniel on the road this week, that too is worth 7 points.
So, at the most:
Dickinson and F&M get 17 points
McDaniel earns 21 points
Muhlenberg could earn 22 points
Hopkins can get 28 points maximum
F&M can't necessarily improve its position since Dickinson is well ahead of them and they both have the same two opponents remaining. Lest we forget that one of these teams' non-conference opponents from earlier in the season could have their SOS index altered by a win or loss. Carnegie Mellon can win out over two hapless teams and slightly help F&M, but mathematically, the Dips are hopeless. While Dickinson has the lead in the SOS index for now, it would appear to fall with 1-7 Ursinus and 1-7 Gettysburg on the docket.
Bottom line, the CC could be a heck of a lot of fun over the next two weeks. Hang on for the ride.
Pioneers leash Greyhounds
The Pioneers of Widener now have two wins over once-ranked MAC opponents after registering a 35-31, come-from-behind win over Moravian. Widener trailed Moravian by 15 midway through the third quarter, before scoring 18 consecutive points for the victory.
"We have a bitter taste in our mouths and our stomachs hurt," Moravian wideout Ben Hawkins told the Allentown (Pa.) Morning Call, "but deep down all these guys have heart and we are going to come back on Monday (to) show that we are going to go out there and beat Albright."
With Del Val's win against FDU-Florham, the Aggies control their own destiny. An Aggies win against Wilkes combined with a Moravian loss at home against Albright would clinch the MAC for the Aggies. Should that happen, it will be the first time in Delaware Valley history that any athletic team received a bid to the NCAA postseason in any sport.
Hornets pining for playoffs
Shenandoah's Hornets are in the driver's seat for the USA South championship but must wait a week until after their non-conference bout with Salisbury to continue their quest for the playoffs. A 25-15 come-from-behind win against Averett kept Shenandoah in control of their own destiny.
"I told the team, ‘We didn't play well at all and are only down eight. Let's just take it from here,' " SU coach Paul Barnes told the Winchester (Va.) Star. "It was the character of this team, like it always has, and we just win."
Victorious against Christopher Newport, the buzzers will host Methodist in two weeks. A win sends Shenandoah to the postseason for the first time in school history.
The Hornets have found themselves on the cusp of the playoffs before but never with the chance to win and get in. The non-conference game with Salisbury is more of an annoyance than anything as the Hornets have no chance with an at-large bid. It will be intriguing to see how SU comes out of the box this week with their sights set on the USAC game of the year.
Wandering in Williamsport
A Williamsport Sun-Gazette online poll asked readers to select which college football team was having the most disappointing season: Penn State, north-central Pennsylvania's D-II Mansfield, or Lycoming. After Lycoming's 14-7 home loss to Juniata, the Warriors led Penn State in votes for the dubious distinction.
"Today was our low spot on offense," Lycoming coach Frank Girardi reported to the paper. "I don't want to say ever, but we obviously had our chances. It has just been one thing after another."
2004 could possibly be the worst season in Frank Girardi's head coaching career. Lyco has already matched the record for most losses in a season under Girardi at six, last experienced in 1974 in his third season as coach. The Warriors have two games remaining, both on the road, at Widener and Susquehanna,
Juniata had been winless and outscored 270-92 coming into the tough matchup in at Lyco's David Person Field. "This means a lot to these kids," Eagles interim coach Darrell Alt told the Sun-Gazette. "These kids have had the mindset of being finishers and I just feel great for them."
In Memoriam
Another loyal reader suddenly passed away this weekend. Frank Joseph of Danville, Va., was a general fan of D3football and often passed along his comments regarding this column and the site. Our thoughts and prayers go out to his family.
Mid-Atlantic Region Top 5
1. Delaware Valley
2. Bridgewater
3. Christopher Newport
4. McDaniel
5. Moravian
The Aggies are the only undefeated team in the region. Enough said.
BC took an improved Washington and Lee squad and demolished them.
CNU played everyone in a rout of North Carolina Wesleyan. I still think the Captains are better than Shenandoah, but the Hornets have the most important win in the USAC this year. Could leave the Captains out.
McDaniel surprised me, frankly. Given Muhlenberg's injury problems, it isn't out of the question for the Green Terror to improve off a disappointing loss.
The Greyhounds outgained the Pioneers and have one more important MAC test to win if they want to stay alive in the hunt.
Games of the Week
No. 19 Hampden-Sydney at Johns Hopkins, Homewood Field, Baltimore, 1:00 p.m.: Johns Hopkins needs a win to help its Strength of Schedule Index while H-SC looks to keep their slim Pool C chances alive. A loss on Saturday eliminates the Tigers from any hope of the postseason.
Muhlenberg at McDaniel, Bair Stadium, Westminster, Md., 1:00 p.m.: Muhlenberg can clinch the Centennial with a win on Saturday. Should McDaniel win, they control their own destiny with a win next week against Johns Hopkins. As we noted above, a McDaniel win this week and a loss next week sends the Centennial into crisis mode with a potential five-way tie.
