By Pat Cummings
D3sports.com
The South Region of Division III football covers a massive territory; from FDU-Florham (Madison, N.J.) to Washington University (St. Louis) and Huntingdon (Birmingham, Ala.) to Sul Ross State (Alpine, Texas). Look at it this way: Sul Ross State is closer to Mexico City than to FDU-Florham!
This is why we've split the region into two separate columns. I will be covering the Mid-Atlantic section, which will include the Centennial Conference, Old Dominion Athletic Conference, Middle Atlantic Conference, USA South Conference, and the Atlantic Central Football Conference. In this first installment of a weekly column, I will examine each of these conferences to determine the main competition, make some bold (and not so bold) predictions, and highlight some key games to watch over the course of the season.
Centennial Conference
It was somewhat surprising that long-time conference powerhouse McDaniel failed to receive a single first place vote in the preseason coaches/SID poll. The Green Terror finished in a three-way tie for the top spot in 2002, and have enjoyed a five-year run as champions or co-champions of the CC. What does that mean for the 2003 season?
The tide in the Centennial has definitely turned for the Green Terror. Five of their 2003 opponents enjoyed postseason action (Bridgewater, Christopher Newport, Brockport State, Muhlenberg, and ECAC representative Johns Hopkins). Combining this schedule with the loss of 10 starters, and the men from Westminster may find themselves in the deep end of the pool.
Johns Hopkins seems to come into each season with high hopes and invariably ends up with a slew of injuries. The Blue Jays play four consecutive non-conference matches (at Rochester, vs. Washington & Lee, vs. Randolph-Macon, at Carnegie Mellon) before finishing with six CC games. The health of Jim Margraff's team after those four games is crucial if they are to survive the conference schedule, which includes visits to Muhlenberg and a Week 11 stop at McDaniel.
Muhlenberg is my pick to represent the Centennial. The Mules play only four home games this season but three of them are arguably their most important matchups. McDaniel and Johns Hopkins will venture to Allentown in Weeks 4 and 8 while traditional rival Moravian will make the short trip in the last game of the regular season. The Mules return their all-time leading rusher Matt Bernardo to anchor the ground game. Bernardo tallied 21 touchdowns last season and has notched 3,140 yards in his career. Muhlenberg has an early non-conference test in 2002 Dixie (now USA South) champs, Christopher Newport. This will be a key regional game for the Mules and an early-season must win to improve their postseason hopes.
Pat's Predictions:
1. Muhlenberg
2. Johns Hopkins
3. McDaniel
4. Dickinson
5. Franklin & Marshall
6. Gettysburg
7. Ursinus
Five Games to Watch
Sept. 6 McDaniel at Bridgewater: Week 1 test for the Green Terror will set the tone for the season.
Sept. 20 Muhlenberg at Christopher Newport: Both teams look for an all-important regional victory.
Sept. 27 McDaniel at Muhlenberg: Mules get main conference foe at home, on the turf; always an interesting game.
Oct. 25 Dickinson at Franklin & Marshall: One of the oldest rivalries in Division III football, this renewal is a pleasure to watch. Dickinson has kept the hallowed Conestoga Wagon trophy for the last five seasons but Franklin & Marshall has a new coach and new enthusiasm.
Nov. 15 Johns Hopkins at McDaniel: If the Mules falter, this game could decide it. Blue Jays have upended the Green Terror in the season finale the past two years.
Middle Atlantic Conference
Allow me to be completely honest: I have no idea who will win the MAC this year. There is no doubt in my mind that this is one of the most competitive conferences in Division III football. That being said, someone has to win the automatic bid, and I think that any one of six teams (King's, Lycoming, Moravian, Susquehanna, Widener, and Wilkes) has a legitimate shot. Regardless, these six will beat up on each other and only one or two will survive to play another game. The question remains as to which of the teams can do it and the setup of the MAC schedule may hold the answers.
King's and Widener shared the top spot in 2002 with the Monarchs edging the Pioneers for the trip to the postseason. The Monarchs, behind senior quarterback David Hessler, must negotiate a brutal conference schedule, playing four of their top five opponents on the road (only Moravian will play at King's). The inverse was true last season and King's won four of five, losing only to Lycoming. I expect a regression from last year's playoff bid.
The Warriors from Williamsport play only nine games again this season and all are MAC opponents. Passing offense should be a specialty for Lycoming as they return quarterback Phil Mann and three experienced receivers. Since their season hedges on their ability to win in conference, Lycoming basically needs to win out in order to be considered for the postseason. They wrap up the 2003 season with Widener and Susquehanna at home -- having to hit the road for Wilkes and Moravian, while they kick off the season Sept. 13 with a visit from King's.
Moravian surprised many with a 7-2 conference mark from last year. Those two losses came at King's (33-0) and in Bethlehem versus Widener. The Greyhounds led 20-10 with about 5:55 left when the Pioneers tossed 10 points on the board to force overtime. Widener scored the only points in overtime for the win. With the schedule shuffling in the MAC, Moravian will once again play host to Widener, this year in their home finale. That game wraps up a three-game, four-week stretch where Moravian plays Wilkes, Lycoming, and Widener at home.
The Susquehanna Crusaders have an impressive offensive threat in receiver Mike Bartosic whose name is engraved in the Crusader record books more than a dozen times for his outstanding play. Yet, with the graduation of quarterback Mike Bowman and the extra attention from opposing defenses, Susquehanna may need to find some other options to get the offense going. Bartosic alone is pretty much the reason I have included the Crusaders as a main contender. Can they win the MAC? It is unlikely, but a possibility. Visits to Widener, Wilkes, and Lycoming hurt their chances.
Under the tutelage of former defensive coordinator and new head coach David Wood, Widener's troop of 12 returning starters and 49 letter winners have a little extra to play for after being snubbed by the selection committee last year. The only Pioneer loss from 2002 was at the hands of second-round playoff team King's. The Monarchs travel to Chester in Week 4 as the Pioneers have back-to-back road matches against Moravian and Lycoming. Widener will need to regroup under center as Mike Warker was lost to graduation.
Wilkes has the best schedule draw of the six teams profiled. The Colonels will host Lycoming, Widener, Susquehanna, and King's, all on non-consecutive weeks. Add to that fortune 17 returning starters, including junior running back Brett Trichillo, and Wilkes gets the slight nod in my book. The lack of an experienced quarterback may be a detriment, but a veteran squad sets up the Colonels for a run to the postseason.
I find the top six teams here to be within such a tight range that providing an overall conference prediction is near impossible -- so I won't even try. Only half of these six teams (King's, Lycoming, and Wilkes) return a starting quarterback from the 2002 season. Could that be the difference? We will find out soon enough and continue to bring you all the news throughout the season.
Five Games to Watch
Sept. 13 Susquehanna at Widener: An early test for both squads may help us get an early glimpse of how the MAC may play out; is Susquehanna a pretender with a wideout?
Sept. 13 King's at Lycoming: Lyco kicks off its season at home and King's takes on the only MAC team it lost to last year.
Nov. 8 Widener at Lycoming: Rematch of last year's thrilling game in Chester. Refreshing your memory -- Widener attempted a 38 yard FG to win the game in overtime which was blocked, the holder picks up the ball, and pitches to wide receiver Bo Fischer who runs the distance for a game winning score.
Nov. 15 King's at Wilkes: Colonels get the toughest part of the schedule at home this year; this could be the clinching win.
Nov. 15 Susquehanna at Lycoming: If it comes down to Lyco and Wilkes as I think it may ... a big game.
Old Dominion Athletic Conference
While the Bridgewater Eagles are the preseason selection to win the ODAC, an in-depth analysis of the conference might suggest otherwise. The Eagles, 2001 NCAA runners-up, ran into the Trinity juggernaut last season and will have their hands full this year, losing 14 starters. The graduates included signal-caller Robbie Jenkins, main receiving targets Andre Jones, Brian Ratliff, and tight end Van Williams, along with All-American lineman Michael Day and center Jason Cooper. I don't doubt the ability of coach Mike Clark to get the Eagles back on their feet after losing so many starters, but the turnaround may not be immediate.
As a result, the Tigers of Hampden-Sydney seem poised to pounce on the ODAC crown. After an 8-2 record from 2002, which included an embarrassing 38-7 shellacking at Bridgewater and a heartbreaking 41-38 defeat vs. Division I-AA Davidson, HSC needs to establish some week-to-week consistency to be the contender I think they can be. The inverse of Bridgewater, the Tigers return 18 starters and will host the Eagles in Week 5 and have dropped Davidson from the schedule, picking up a second Centennial Conference opponent as Dickinson joins Gettysburg on the schedule. Week 11 is the 109th meeting between HSC and their rivals to the east, Randolph-Macon. The Tigers took a 7-0 victory last year in the rain and will travel to Ashland in a game that could set them up for their first playoff run since 1977 (a 51-45 first round loss to SUNY-Albany).
Pat's Predictions:
1. Hampden-Sydney
2. Bridgewater
3. Randolph-Macon
4. Emory & Henry
5. Washington & Lee
6. Catholic
7. Guilford
Five Games to Watch:
Sept. 27 Bridgewater at Christopher Newport: As we mentioned earlier, CNU is looking to bolster the value of its opponents and this is indeed a step in the right direction. Bridgewater's performance will help us to judge how strong they may be in the early going.
Oct. 4 Bridgewater at Hampden-Sydney: One team will get a conference loss ... and that may decide the season.
Oct. 4 Washington & Lee at Randolph-Macon: The Generals upset the Yellow Jackets in Lexington last year, 7-3.
Nov. 1 Emory & Henry at Catholic: I doubt either team will be in the hunt, but this game is historically a high-scoring slugfest that is just fun to watch. The Wasps took it 48-47 in 2002, Catholic 34-21 in 2001 and 50-40 in 2000.
Nov. 15 Hampden-Sydney at Randolph-Macon: This game annually draws about 7,000 fans, rain or shine, which probably says something about the competitive nature of this rivalry.
USA South Athletic Conference
When all you have done as a football program for two seasons includes two conference championships and two appearances in the NCAA playoffs, you can typically expect to be the preseason favorite for your third time around. This is true for the Captains of Christopher Newport. However, the Captains are not a lock in winning the USA South Conference (formerly the Dixie Conference).
The motives behind this bold statement are founded in the brutal non-conference schedule that Captains coach Matt Kelchner has mapped for his squad. Ambitious is one way to describe it, but the Captains are looking for the additional seasoning they will need to become true postseason competitors. At Rowan and McDaniel in the first two weeks of the season, followed by home games versus Muhlenberg and Bridgewater could equal a painful start to 2003. Combine those four tough games with a visit from Shenandoah, the only team to hand CNU a conference loss from last year, and the Captains schedule is even more daunting.
I don't doubt their ability or the program's resolve to win; their scheduling alone is a sure sign of that. The 2003 season will be a true test of just how strong the Captains can be when facing a full slate of top-notch non-conference appointments.
So: Does this infer that I believe CNU will not end up in the playoffs again? Absolutely not. The Captains are the best team in the USAC. But the ambitious schedule, along with eight consecutive games before a bye, could take their toll on the CNU lineup and set up an outsider from jumping in and taking the cake. Ferrum and Shenandoah are knocking on the door.
The Panthers from Ferrum lose their quarterback from last year to graduation, but return an experienced offensive line and receiving corps. Last season, the only conference loss suffered by the Panthers was at the hands of CNU. The 2003 renewal of this contest will take place in Week 11 at Ferrum. The history of the Dixie/USAC has never seen a team other than the Captains win the automatic bid. A much lighter non-conference schedule (as compared to CNU) and the benefit of the last three regular season games at home may make for a playoff bid for the Panthers.
Shenandoah lost their first four games of the 2002 season and shocked many by winning their first game of the year knocking off CNU. The Hornets lost two conference affairs at Ferrum and Greensboro by a combined 10 points and are actually riding a four game winning streak coming into the new season. Again, it seems unlikely that the Hornets will take the USAC crown, but anything is possible when it comes to conference play.
Pat's Predictions:
1. Christopher Newport
2. Ferrum
3. Shenandoah
4. Greensboro
5. Methodist
6. Averett
7. Chowan
Five Games to Watch:
Sept. 6 Chowan at Randolph-Macon: Chowan was 0-10 in 2002. They drove the Yellow Jackets to overtime, only to lose when the Braves failed to convert on a 39-yard field goal attempt. Is this game worth watching this year? Eh ... I wouldn't have said so last year, and I would have been proven wrong. Check it out, who knows?
Sept. 6 Christopher Newport at Rowan: The Captains head to New Jersey where the Profs look to regain form after being stunned at home by Brockport in the 2003 playoffs.
Sept. 13 Christopher Newport at McDaniel: CNU get two quality opponents on consecutive weeks, on the road. Last year, CNU was outscored 59-13 when playing Rowan and Bridgewater in weeks 2 and 3. In two years of existence, the Captains have not defeated a team that has been to the playoffs in the last decade. Maybe now is the time to start.
Oct. 4 Shenandoah at Christopher Newport: If the Hornets are to have a chance to win the USAC, they need to win this one, as they have the last two years.
Nov. 15 Christopher Newport at Ferrum: Quite simply, this game decided the champion in 2002; I suspect this game will be of equivalent importance in 2003.
Atlantic Central Football Conference
Allow me to be brutally honest (again): Salisbury should not have been ranked as high as they were at the end of the 2002 regular season. A loss to Frostburg in Week 11 and the Sea Gulls still managed to secure a coveted Pool B bid, only to be shut out by King's (28-0). The combined record of their 2003 non-conference opponents is a bottom-heavy 20-50. While the Sea Gulls could certainly run the table in 2003, the quality of their opponents leaves much to desire. Wesley and Frostburg could provide some competition in the four-team conference which will add two new squads in 2004, Buffalo State and Brockport State. I don't see a 2003 Pool B team emerging from the ACFC.
Pat's Predictions:
1. Salisbury
2. Wesley
3. Frostburg
4. Newport News
Sorting it out
It's a large region and there's a lot here to digest, so here's my Top 5 Favorites, Top 5 Contenders, and a few playoff darkhorses in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Favorites include those teams I believe have the best chance to shine in the 2003 season; contenders include those squads that just aren't gonna have it to get to the playoffs when push comes to shove. Keep an eye on the darkhorses looming in the background.
Top 5 Mid-Atlantic Region Favorites:
1. Hampden-Sydney
2. Lycoming
3. Muhlenberg
4. Wilkes
5. Bridgewater
Top 5 Mid-Atlantic Region Contenders:
1. Salisbury
2. McDaniel
3. Christopher Newport
4. Widener
5. Susquehanna
Top 5 Mid-Atlantic Region Darkhorses:
1. Johns Hopkins
2. Moravian
3. King's
4. Shenandoah
5. Ferrum
