By Keith McMillan
D3sports.com
Lycoming and Bridgewater fans, get out your tissues. Ursinus fans, you too.
The NCAA’s recent rule change – which dropped the number of playoff spots for runners-up in automatic qualifier conferences from four to three – is bad news for fans of teams running second in their respective championship chase.
The Warriors, Eagles and Bears could each win their final three games and end up out of the playoffs. A shame for teams that could finish just one, two and three points from being unbeaten.
But that’s the reality in the 28-team era of the Division III football playoffs. More teams are making the postseason, but more that feel they should make it will be overlooked. Certainly, none of those three teams would have a shot under the old 16-team system, would they?
It’s unlikely. Under the system in place prior to 1998, a regional committee of coaches and an athletic director ranked the top six teams in four regions throughout the second half of the season. Those rankings determined the field of 16 teams for the national playoffs.
Here’s the scoop on this year. If Widener in the MAC, Emory & Henry in the ODAC and Western Maryland in the Centennial win their remaining games, they’re in the field of 28. With victories against Lycoming, Bridgewater and Ursinus, they can each afford a conference loss and still win a tie-breaker as well.
So the best hope for the Warriors, Eagles and Bears is to win the rest of their games and hope the NCAA selection committee grants them another in the form of a Pool C bid.
Simply put, 17 conference champions go as automatic qualifiers. Another eight playoff spots are taken by independents and teams from non-AQ conferences. That leaves three spots for runners-up, and we might have three that deserve consideration in the Mid-Atlantic alone.
Someone will get left at home.
Such is the precarious nature of college football. Many fine seasons, from Division I-A to III, have been stunted by a single loss, no matter how close. Not even professional football, where 9-7 teams regularly make the postseason, demands such perfection.
Is it wrong? Maybe. But that’s how it is this year. So here are my cases for each of the three teams, assuming they win their final three and finish second:
Bridgewater has the strongest case for a bid. A victory over Western Maryland, a perennial power and probable Centennial champion, plus a solid out of conference win against Johns Hopkins, is supporting evidence. Plus, they’ll have to go through Washington & Lee and Catholic to finish 9-1. Their Sept. 16 loss to Emory & Henry came on a late score that gave the Wasps a 37-35 edge.
Lycoming’s case is based on their history of playoff success and the circumstance of their loss. The Warriors could finish as MAC Freedom champions and not get the AQ if it goes to a 10-0 Widener squad. A 50-49 double-overtime loss to an unbeaten playoff participant is hardly grounds to call Lycoming unfit for the postseason. But with the Warriors only playing the nine scheduled MAC games, there’s no way for the selection committee to measure Lycoming against other teams and conferences in the area.
Ursinus could finish 9-1 with just a 35-32 loss to Western Maryland on the bad side. The Bears’ playoff win last year, and a 31-7 win over Wooster, a respected North Coast Conference squad, can only help. Playing Western Maryland close and needing to beat Muhlenberg to finish with only one loss, are selling points as well, but I wouldn’t bet on another two-berth year for the Centennial. Out-of-conference games against Lebanon Valley and Kean aren’t big helpers either.
At best, two of the above teams could get Pool C bids if they finish second with a single blemish on their record. But zero wouldn’t be a total shocker either, with tight races going on in the American Southwest, Minnesota, Iowa and College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin. And the Ohio Athletic is probable to get a second bid, for whoever finishes behind Mount Union. All of which is bad news for teams in the Mid-Atlantic.
So if you find yourself cheering the new 28-team playoff system, you may not have to look farther than Collegeville, Williamsport or Bridgewater to find disagreement.
Title Chases
Nearing the final turn in the race for the Atlantic Central Football Conference title, two horses are starting to pull away. Those equines: Wesley, a conference unbeaten, and Ferrum, whose only conference loss came against Methodist 10-7 on Sept. 30.
Salisbury State has only one conference loss as well, but with ACFC games with Wesley, Ferrum and Frostburg left, we’d be shocked to see them pull through unscathed. If so, they’d win the ACFC.
Methodist needs lots of help while Frostburg’s loss to Ferrum all but eliminated them from the title picture. The only way the Bobcats could get a piece of the title is through a three-way tie with Methodist and Ferrum.
Wesley has not only a shot at the ACFC title, but also a playoff bid. The ACFC doesn’t have to worry about AQ’s and the Pool C mess. The ACFC’s seven teams are among 63 vying for eight slots in Pool B, for independents and teams in non-AQ conferences. An 8-1 record for the Wolverines, with their only loss coming at national powerhouse Rowan by 10, could be convincing for the selection committee. But it’s no guarantee.
The Wolverines finish with Salisbury State, Chowan and Ferrum.
The Panthers, who have surrendered just 43 points in seven games, have a solid title shot of their own. But they need to beat Salisbury State and Wesley to do it.
Barring any upsets, Ferrum will travel to Dover on Nov. 11 to play Wesley for the title. If a Panther win ties the two squads at 5-1 in the ACFC, the head-to-head victor would get the conference title.
Old Dominion: This week’s games are huge for the conference title race: Catholic at Emory & Henry and Washington & Lee at Bridgewater.
With a win, the Wasps can secure the ODAC’s automatic qualifier, regardless of the outcome of next week’s game at W&L.
Likewise, a win would propel the Cardinals into the conference lead. Subsequent victories against Guilford and Bridgewater would give CUA its second consecutive ODAC title.
The Eagles could win the title with a Catholic win this week and a win over the Cardinals on Nov. 11, provided they also beat W&L this week and Randolph-Macon on Nov. 4.
The Generals' outside shot at the title requires victories against Bridgewater and Emory & Henry. Their two conference losses put them behind the eight-ball, but with a Catholic win over Emory & Henry and Cardinal losses against Guilford and Bridgewater, the Generals could make it.
Losses for any ODAC team just about kill their title hopes.
There’s still a lot of football left in the ACFC and ODAC. The title pictures in the MAC and CC are clearer.
Middle Atlantic: Widener is sitting pretty. Regardless of what happens this week against Western Maryland, the Pioneers need only to beat either Lebanon Valley (3-4) or Juniata (1-6) to make the postseason.
One loss would still earn them the MAC Commonwealth Championship. The MAC chooses its automatic qualifier from the two league champions. Lycoming, the Freedom League leader, would lose a head-to-head tie-breaker with the Pioneers. For either Wilkes or King’s to win the Freedom, they’d need both Delaware Valley (2-5) and FDU-Madison (0-7) to beat Lycoming.
The only way Widener can blow its playoff spot is to lose its final two Commonwealth games, in which case the Pioneers wouldn’t deserve to go. Lycoming is the only other team with a realistic shot at the AQ, and even that is slim.
Centennial: Still a one-horse race with Western Maryland way ahead, but Johns Hopkins and Ursinus are not out of the running.
The Blue Jays meet the Green Terror on Nov. 11. A win could propel them into a three-way tie with Ursinus and Western Maryland, or it could give them the title should the Bears lose along the way. The Bears’ best hope is that the Green Terror lose twice. They hold a tie-breaker edge over Johns Hopkins.
Hopkins must also beat Dickinson and Franklin & Marshall for a title shot. Ursinus has yet to play Muhlenberg or Dickinson.
Of course, if the Green Terror can beat Swarthmore and Hopkins, it’ll be the fourth straight season they’ve gone through the CC unbeaten. That will earn them their fourth straight title and trip to the NCAA playoffs.
Week nine games to watch:
No. 15 Western Maryland (6-1) at No. 13 Widener (7-0)
This inter-conference battle matches the likely automatic qualifiers from the Centennial and Middle Atlantic. The Green Terror crushed the Pioneers 50-27 last season, but it is Widener that puts up the big offensive numbers this season. The Western Maryland defense could be the toughest Widener has seen this year. Western Maryland’s Boo Harris and Widener’s Mike Granato are a contrast in quarterback styles, but each will make plays. The matchup to watch is in the Green Terror secondary, led by corner Rob McCracken, against the Pioneer receiving duo of Jim Jones and Michael Coleman. This is D3football.com’s Game of the Week and can be heard live via the web starting at 12:45 p.m. Saturday.
Wesley (5-1, 3-0 ACFC) at Salisbury State (4-3, 2-1)
Wesley is clearly the ACFC favorite and can set up a showdown with 5-2 Ferrum with wins against SSU and Chowan. This is the first of a three-game stretch (also Ferrum, Frostburg State) that should bring the Sea Gulls back to earth. Salisbury is still in the title hunt; Wolverines haven’t lost since the opener at Rowan.
Washington & Lee (5-2, 2-2 ODAC) at Bridgewater (6-1, 2-1)
There’s no doubt the Eagles are dying to avenge last year’s 44-38 double overtime loss. The one-time ODAC also-rans would keep pace with Emory & Henry and set a school record for wins in a season (7) in the process. W&L has won seven in a row in this I-81 series. Two of the ODAC’s best backs in W&L’s Marc Watson and Bridgewater’s Davon Cruz will be on display. Both teams entering a stretch against ODAC’s toughest teams. Winner back in the ODAC title race if E&H loses.
Catholic (4-3, 2-1 ODAC) at Emory & Henry (6-1, 4-0)
Catholic cruised to a 42-19 home victory in last year’s meeting en route to an undefeated season in the ODAC. E&H would love to return the favor. A victory clinches the conference title for the Wasps. A Cardinal win thrusts Catholic and Bridgewater (if victorious) back into the mix, setting up a Nov. 11 showdown.
Muhlenberg (5-2, 4-2 CC) at Ursinus (6-1, 4-1)
The Bears need to stay close to Western Maryland to preserve its CC title and Pool C playoff hopes alive. Two of the Centennial’s most feared passing attacks, led by the Bears’ Frank Vecchio and the Mules’ Michael McCabe, will take the field. Should be a shootout.
Shenandoah (1-6) at Averett (1-7): One of these first-year programs will notch its second win Saturday, a milestone for either Virginia school. Each notched its first win against Gallaudet, Averett by a 34-18 score and Shenandoah by 40-6. Both schools, members of the Dixie Conference in all sports, will start conference play when the Dixie begins sponsoring football next season.
