By Keith McMillan
D3sports.com
My e-mail inbox has been blowing up this week, indicating serious bouts of playoff fever in certain areas of Virginia, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland and Washington, D.C.
No one has clinched yet, but everyone wants to know who is going where when and who do we think they’ll play. Some just want to know if their team has a chance at making the field.
Plus, the questions are primed to pile up after Pat’s postseason predictions posted Tuesday. Not that we mind the inquisition, but be warned: breaking out the champagne just because we say you’re in might be premature.
No game last week had more playoff implications than Western Maryland’s solid 35-21 win against Widener, but a 50-40 Catholic victory over Emory & Henry sure came close.
Catholic is energized and back in the playoff hunt while the Green Terror look like the Mid-Atlantic’s best team right now. It’s hard to argue that point, since Bridgewater, praying for help in the ODAC race, beat them early in the season and could be left out of the playoff field. But Western Maryland’s win against Widener helps the Eagles a lot more than it helps Lycoming.
Both Bridgewater and Lycoming are struggling to be considered Pool C contenders since they both have only outside shots at their conference titles. Bridgewater’s win over the CC champion (and potential runner-up in Johns Hopkins) reflects well on the Eagles. The Green Terror beat Widener, the likely MAC champion, who beat Lycoming. This makes some sense, but later on in the column I’ll show you why this logic is twisted.
In our four conferences, the focus is narrowing. Two champs could be crowned next weekend. Let’s take a look at the respective title chases. And, hey, some teams not in playoff contention had games Saturday too.
Title Chases
The Atlantic Central race is looking more and more like a crash course for Wesley and Ferrum. The Wolverines improved to 6-1 by edging Salisbury State, but more importantly, they stayed unbeaten in the conference at 4-0. A game with Chowan next week shouldn’t be much more than a tune-up for the Ferrum game.
The Panthers posted their fourth shutout with a 49-0 win against Guilford. Ferrum has allowed just 33 points all season. Salisbury State will try on Saturday to become the second team this season to score double figures on them.
If both win this weekend, the Panthers will travel to Dover on Nov. 11 for what will essentially be the ACFC title game.
Western Maryland just about wrapped the Centennial up, and they didn’t even play a CC game this weekend. Both Ursinus and Johns Hopkins picked up their second conference loss, leaving open only a glimmer of hope for either to stop the Terror from clinching its fourth straight title. Western Maryland needs to lose to Swarthmore and Hopkins to squander a playoff spot, not to mention a 26-game (and counting) conference win streak.
Despite their subpar outing against the Terror, Widener can clinch the Middle Atlantic crown with a win against Lebanon Valley this week or at Juniata next.
Catholic’s win put them in the driver’s seat in the Old Dominion, but each of three possible playoff representatives have significant struggles ahead.
Emory & Henry (4-1 ODAC) can eliminate Bridgewater (3-1) from the title picture with a win over Washington & Lee Saturday. The Generals, though, can eliminate the Wasps if both Bridgewater and Catholic win (over 2-6 Randolph-Macon and 1-7 Guilford, respectively).
A W&L win would make the Nov. 11 Eagle-Cardinal clash the ODAC title game.
Two Catholic wins clinch the title, regardless of the Wasps’ results.
Losses hurt big here. In case of a two-team tie at the top, Catholic (3-1) edges the Wasps because of Saturday’s head-to-head win. E&H holds the edge over the Eagles.
The trio cannot tie with 5-1 conference records, but Bridgewater could go to the playoffs if they all tied at 4-2. The ODAC’s Rose Bowl rule rewards the tied team with the longest period of time since their last trip to the playoffs. Bridgewater has never been.
Only Bridgewater has a case strong enough to make the postseason without winning the title (in Pool C). Neither the Cardinals or Wasps will go if they miss out on the championship.
We clear?
Our pick for national champion: Guilford
Using everybody’s favorite measure of good football teams, the
"we-beat-them-and-they-beat-you-so-we-can-beat-you" method (a distant cousin of "six degrees of separation"), allow me to prove why Guilford should be national champions.
Despite 64-0, 58-0, 49-0 and 31-6 losses, the Quakers are as good as Lycoming, the 1997 runners-up or Pacific Lutheran, last season’s champion. Really.
You see, the Quakers beat Randolph-Macon, who beat Catholic. The Cardinals beat Emory & Henry, who beat Bridgewater. The Eagles topped Western Maryland, who just last week beat Widener. The Pioneers beat Lycoming, so without a doubt, the Quakers should be able to beat the Warriors.
Of course, the wacky ODAC results tell us that Guilford could be better than 1999 national champions, Pacific Lutheran. The Quakers beat Randolph-Macon, who beat Catholic. The Cardinals beat Washington & Lee, who topped Centre. Centre knocked off then-No. 2 Trinity (Texas), and the Tigers beat Willamette, the only team to beat the Lutes during their national championship season.
That being considered, it’s a shame that the Quakers won’t get a chance to prove me right in the field of 28. Maybe we should expand the field to 229 teams and let the entire season be a round-robin tournament.
Other, more serious Quaker news, leads us into ...
Around the region
Junior Lord, a 1997 Guilford graduate who has spent time with the NFL’s Washington Redskins, Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers, was a
58th-round selection of the Chicago Enforcers in the 60-round XFL draft. Lord, a wide receiver, joins several Division III refugees, including players from Ohio Northern, Howard Payne and Redlands. Also picked in the new eight-team football league backed by TNT and NBC were former NFL and college stars Rashaan Salaam, Jim Druckenmiller, John Avery and Brian Shay, among others. ... FDU-Madison departed the ranks of the winless with a 15-13 win against disappointing Juniata. The Devils’ victory left just two Mid-Atlantic teams, Gettysburg and Franklin & Marshall, without a win this season. At least one will avoid a winless campaign when the Bullets host the Diplomats on Nov. 11. ... Randolph-Macon, who has already thrown a monkey wrench in the ODAC title race by beating Catholic 31-28 on Sept. 23, can play spoiler again if they beat Bridgewater this week. The 2-6 Yellow Jackets usually contend for the ODAC title, but never challenged this year. Instead, Washington & Lee, Bridgewater and Hampden-Sydney are having breakout seasons. ... Susquehanna is reeling, dropping its third in a row after winning its first five. Worse, its losses to Widener, Lebanon Valley and Moravian have all been in the MAC Commonwealth, dropping the Crusaders to the bottom of the league standings. Susquehanna was similarly inconsistent last season, but this year they won’t be able to rebound and win the Commonwealth title... The Centennial Conference website tabs Swarthmore sophomore RB Ken Clark as Clark Kent after his super 52-carry, 317-yard game Saturday… Regardless of the outcome of their final two games, Hampden-Sydney and Swarthmore have each been among the region’s most pleasant surprises this season. The two share more than just garnet-based color schemes. The Garnet and Tigers won just one game each last season, but have posted three so far this year. Their improvement is evident in more than just the standings, as each as rebounded from a stretch of non-competitive years to play its conference’s tough teams closer. Head coaches Peter Alvanos (Swarthmore) and Marty Favret (H-SC) are coach-of-the-year candidates.
Week 10 games to watch
Susquehanna (5-3, 1-3 MAC Commonwealth) at Lycoming (6-1, 3-0 MAC Freedom)
This could have been a matchup with playoff implications, but the Crusaders' three-game losing streak has taken the luster off of the game. With the Warriors fighting for a playoff spot and the Crusaders fighting to stay afloat, it may not be a close game.
Emory & Henry (6-2, 4-1 ODAC) at Washington & Lee (5-3, 2-3)
The Wasps need a little help to win the ODAC title, but the best aid is to first win their own game. A loss could eliminate them. Emory & Henry has owned the Generals, but a much-improved W&L squad that beat both Centre and Sewanee could really make some noise by playing spoiler here. Look for lots of run plays with the Generals’ Marc Watson and Wasps’ Ernest Cheatham.
Lebanon Valley (3-5, 2-2 MAC Comm.) at Widener (7-1, 3-0)
A scrappy Flying Dutchmen team could catch the Pioneers on the right week, following the big loss to Western Maryland. Or, it could be the wrong week, with Widener seeking to get back on track by securing the league and conference title, and the playoff berth that comes along.
Salisbury State (4-4, 2-2 ACFC) at Ferrum (6-2, 3-1)
As seen above.
