By Keith McMillan
D3sports.com

OK, folks, here’s where things get to be fun. Mid-Atlantic teams are pursuing five championships, but only three automatic qualifiers (AQs). Here are D3football.com’s midseason predictions for champions and playoff participants, starting with the unprecedented top-to-bottom parity in the ODAC:

Old Dominion 
Athletic Conference
We’ll admit that in the ODAC, we needed a little help from league sources to sort out the mess. No one is mathematically eliminated as far as we can tell, and as many as four teams have legitimate title shots. So what happens if two, three or four of them tie? We’ll get to that in a minute.

Catholic snagged the ODAC’s first-ever football AQ by running the table in 1999, but only Emory & Henry (2-0 ODAC) has a chance to do that in 2000. But longtime head coach Lou Wacker isn’t thinking about 6-0 and 9-1.

"All I’m concerned about right now is Randolph-Macon," said Wacker of his Saturday opponent, winners of two of the last three meetings.

Wacker’s concern is in the right place. If his Wasps win their next four games, against R-MC (1-2 ODAC), Guilford (1-2 ODAC), Catholic (1-1 ODAC) and Washington & Lee (2-1 ODAC), they’ll represent the conference in the NCAA playoffs. Simple enough.

"I like our position better than anybody else’s," Wacker said. "At least we’re a position to control our own destiny."

But if the Wasps falter – say against Catholic, a 42-19 winner over E&H last season – the picture gets cloudier. The ODAC AQ is decided by conference record. If two teams tie for the top spot with 5-1 conference records, the winner of the head-to-head matchup is the champion and gets the AQ.

But there are several key games left in the conference and no way to really tell who will finish strongest.

"Right now it’s a quarterback situation," said Marty Favret, the first-year head coach at Hampden-Sydney (1-2 ODAC). "The team [whose] quarterback plays the best is going to have the advantage down the stretch. Emory & Henry with Shannon [Johnson] is scary, and he’s getting better. Bridgewater has two quarterbacks, sort of a controversy going up there, and [Catholic’s] Derek McGee is a good quarterback who hasn’t played that well. I think it will be interesting."

Favret’s theory favors Bridgewater (1-1 ODAC) and Catholic, the only teams with significant experience behind center. Juniors Jason Lutz and McGee are three-year starters and should be prepared for a stretch run. But Lutz is getting a push from sophomore Robbie Jenkins, who led the Eagles to a 19-7 win against Western Maryland in the season opener.

Johnson, R-MC’s Hunter Price, H-SC’s Mac Russell and W&L’s Robert Littlehale all are sophomores and first-year starters. Guilford’s David Hessler, who started as a freshman, is also a sophomore.

The league’s top teams each play good defense as well, negating another traditional separation between champions and runners-up. The parity in the ODAC in 2000 is unparalleled.

"I said it before the season and I’ll say it again," said Wacker, who has coached in the ODAC since its inception. "I think this is the deepest I’ve ever seen the league. Top to bottom, any team can beat you."

"It’s refreshing to see the league have almost an ACC basketball feel," agreed Favret, "where teams at the bottom can come out and play with the teams at the top."

"A lot of times," adds Wacker, "you say ‘well anybody can beat anybody on any given day’ and it’s sort of just shop talk. When Guilford beat Randolph-Macon, I think that opened a lot of people’s eyes."

"In two weeks’ time, Guilford reinvented themselves," said Bridgewater’s Michael Clark, who is preparing for the Quakers on Saturday. Clark said it would have been impossible for R-MC head coach Scott Boone to prepare his players based on the game tapes from Guilford’s 58-0, 49-0 and 31-6 losses. Guilford changed their offensive attack during their bye week, and beat the Yellow Jackets 28-24 Saturday.

"You have to give credit to Mike Ketchum," said Favret, "for getting his kids up to beat Macon."

Clark says the key is "managing your own business," and there are several examples so far of teams not doing so.

"I’m probably capable of winning the rest of my games, and I’m capable of losing them," said Clark. "If you’re dealing with that type of situation, it’s easy to convince the kids [to manage our business], because there’s an example out there where somebody didn’t."

Favret, who spent six seasons as Catholic’s offensive coordinator ("I’m in a different boat this year," he says), remembers when the ODAC had "a pretty established pecking order."

"Very rarely would you see something in the paper that surprised you on Sunday morning," he said.

Now, Clark tells his kids not to compare scores. If they did, what sense would they make of R-MC’s 31-28 victory over CUA, W&L’s 34-6 win over R-MC and then CUA’s 47-0 thrashing of W&L?

"We might not have the strongest conference in the country," says Favret. "But in terms of parity, we do all right."

We need a pick already . . .
OK, so who’s going to win the ODAC?

"It would certainly be a tough call right now," said Clark.

"I think realistically, it’s going to be a three-horse race," said Favret, including Catholic, Emory & Henry and Bridgewater. "But, hey, anything can happen."

"I still feel like it’s Catholic’s to lose," said Favret. "After Macon’s loss, they’re in a position to win if they run the table."

"Defensively, they’re scary," Favret adds. "It’s just a question of can they score enough points to beat some of the better teams in the league."

"Certainly Emory & Henry getting to play some big games at home," said Clark. "It helps them in terms of confidence and security. But they’re certainly not unbeatable."

We like those three choices: Emory & Henry, Catholic and Bridgewater, given that three other schools have two losses and W&L has three tough ODAC games left.

"I think it cleared up a lot last week," said Favret. "It certainly looks like the two games to highlight are Catholic going to Emory & Henry (October 28) and then Bridgewater coming to Catholic (November 11).

Throw in a Bridgewater grudge match with W&L, a 44-38 overtime winner last season, and you have three games that will determine who will go to the playoffs.

Untying the knot
A three-way tie at 5-1 is impossible, but what if three teams tie at 4-2? A four-way tie?

ODAC commissioner Brad Bankston said the next tie-breaker after head-to-head matchups is a five-point tiebreaker system, where a win over the seventh place team nets 5 points, the sixth 10… to the first, 35. An average of the values, as in 30 for three first-place teams, is used for tied teams.

If that doesn’t settle it, the ODAC goes to the Rose Bowl rule, which awards the AQ to the team who has not appeared in the NCAA Division III playoffs most recently. The advantage, should that happen: Bridgewater, W&L and Guilford have never gone (though the Generals played Wyoming in the 1951 Gator Bowl). Hampden-Sydney went in 1977, R-MC in 1984, E&H in 1995 and CUA went last season.

If two teams – such as Bridgewater and W&L – that have never been are involved in a three-way tie that goes down to the so-called Rose Bowl rule, the AQ would go to the winner of the regular-season game between those two schools.

Confused yet?

It shouldn’t come to this to find an AQ, but three-way ties have happened. Had the AQ and tiebreaker been in place in 1997’s three-way tie between E&H, R-MC and Guilford, the Quakers would have gone to the playoffs.

Our best guess: We feel good about three teams, and we’ll leave it at that. Favret likes Catholic, Pat Coleman goes with Emory & Henry and I’ll take Bridgewater, even though it means E&H has to lose twice.

Atlantic Central Football Conference
The title chase would be almost as exciting as the ODAC’s except for one thing: The ACFC wasn’t in existence before 1998, and does not have an automatic qualifier according to NCAA rules. So the best a team can hope for is a Pool B bid.

Five teams (Wesley, Ferrum, Frostburg State, Salisbury State and Methodist) are in the hunt. All have one conference loss, except Wesley, who is 2-0. There are a ton of big games remaining:

FSU at Ferrum, Oct. 21
Methodist at Wesley, Oct. 21
Wesley at SSU, Oct. 28
Ferrum at SSU, Nov. 4
Ferrum at Wesley, Nov. 11
SSU vs. FSU at RFK Stadium, Nov. 11

Any combination of two- and three-way ties are possible here as well, as each conference game means a lot in determining a champion.

Methodist is in good shape, with three-point wins over SSU and Ferrum. But a 26-7 loss to Frostburg hurts. We’ll count Salisbury out, because the final three games against Wesley, Ferrum and FSU will be too tough.

There’s no way to tell how things will play out without knowing the results of a few of the upcoming games, but a couple results are telling: Methodist’s loss to Frostburg State and Wesley’s 24-10 win against Frostburg.

Our best guess: Wesley gets revenge for last year’s last-second 9-7 loss to Ferrum with a title-clinching win November 11. An NCAA bid could go with them at 8-1, even without a quality non-conference win. Their 32-22 loss to Rowan showed that the Wolverines can bark with the big dogs.

Middle Atlantic
Commonwealth
Plain and simple: winner of this week’s Widener-Susquehanna game goes to the show, providing they finish strong.

Freedom
Same story for the winner of Saturday’s Wilkes-Lycoming clash, but likely without the NCAA bid.

The MAC’s AQ is awarded to the league champion that wins the in-season head-to-head matchup. We present four scenarios, assuming Saturday’s winners go on to their respective championships:

 Widener & Lycoming win Saturday: Widener’s 50-49 win over Lycoming gives them the edge.

 Susquehanna holds the same edge over Wilkes from its 35-21 victory September 30.

 Susquehanna & Lycoming meet November 4. If the pair win Saturday, the November game could decide the AQ.

 Widener & Wilkes win: Ah, the catch. If these two win, and finish unbeaten in their respective leagues, we’re pretty sure their overall MAC record decides the AQ, since the two don’t meet on the field this season. The MAC doesn't want this to happen, we're sure.

Our best guess: We’re not counting any of the four out, but we’ll narrow the field to two this weekend. Right now, I like Widener. If any Mid-Atlantic conference gets a second bid, the MAC will be it.

Centennial
The Centennial is all but wrapped up following Western Maryland’s wins over Ursinus and Muhlenberg, the biggest preseason challengers and the closest in the standings. The Green Terror’s toughest test is at Widener October 28, a non-conference game. They’d also have to lose twice for Ursinus or Muhlenberg to pass them in the standings. Dickinson and Johns Hopkins have a shot, but the AQ is Western Maryland’s to lose.

Our best guess: The Green Terror makes its fourth straight playoff appearance. Outside chance for Ursinus or Muhlenberg, but they play each other October 28 and each have a tough out-of-conference game (Bears at 4-1 Wooster, Mules vs. 4-1 Hartwick). We say one bid, Western Maryland.

We’ll be keep you posted as things develop.

Games to watch
No. 23 Susquehanna (5-0, 1-0 MAC Commonwealth) at No. 15 Widener (5-0, 2-0)
This week’s marquee matchup might as well be titled the MAC Commonwealth Championship game, because barring anything strange, the winner will call itself that at the end of the season. The Crusaders won the title in the past two seasons… Though both teams are stocked with talent, the matchup to watch will be the Susquehanna defensive backs (Junior cornerback Tom Kay and strong safety Dennis Kodack, cornerback Nick Chesney and free safety Antonio Nash, all sophomores) against Widener wideouts Michael Coleman and Jim Jones.

Wilkes (4-1, 2-0 MAC Freedom) at No. 21 Lycoming (3-1, 1-0)
The Colonels are off to a strong start and are out to avenge last year’s 20-15 loss. The 15 points were the most scored on Lycoming all of last season, but the Warriors have given up 50, 24 and 20 already this season… Lycoming stopped Wilkes senior Mike Hankins inches short on fourth-and-goal last year, halting a 15-play, 82-yard drive that would have given the Colonels the win, and likely the Freedom League title. This week’s winner will likely wear that crown in 2000.

Catholic (2-3) at Methodist (4-1)
The Cardinals are back in the hunt following their 47-0 assault on Washington & Lee. CUA wants to get on a roll; the Monarchs want to prove they can play with a nationally recognized program. Should be a good measuring stick in pitting the strength of the ODAC against the ACFC.

Randolph-Macon (2-4, 1-2 ODAC) at Emory & Henry (4-1, 2-0)
The winner of this game took home the ODAC title from 1992 to 1998, and it could be more of the same this year if the Wasps stay strong behind sophomore quarterback Shannon Johnson. Wasps need this win to stay in control of their title hopes; The Jackets’ championship chances are more or less dashed, but they can still be a factor… Fullerton Field is one of the region’s toughest places to play.

No. 17 Western Maryland (4-1, 3-0 CC) at Dickinson (2-3, 1-1)
The Red Devils, with a mathematical chance at the Centennial title, are one of the few teams left with a chance at knocking off the Green Terror. It’s a game to keep an eye on, but Western Maryland is strong on defense and steadily improving on offense… and not looking very beatable.

No. 14 Brockport State (5-0) at Frostburg State (2-3)
Trouble continues for the Bobcats, as the visitor from upstate New York is a leading candidate for an independent (pool B) playoff bid. Frostburg State has one of the region’s toughest schedules, but at least they close out with three ACFC games.